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Base rate fallacy

Error in thinking which involves under-valuing base rate information / From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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The base rate fallacy, also called base rate neglect[2] or base rate bias, is a type of fallacy in which people tend to ignore the base rate (e.g., general prevalence) in favor of the individuating information (i.e., information pertaining only to a specific case).[3] Base rate neglect is a specific form of the more general extension neglect.

Base_rate_fallacy_with_vaccines.svg
A hospital receiving more vaccinated covid patients than unvaccinated ones might suggest that the vaccine is ineffective, but such an imbalance is to be expected within a highly vaccinated population[1]

It is also called prosecutor's fallacy or defense attorney's fallacy when applied to the results of statistical tests (such as DNA tests) in the context of law proceedings. In this form, the term was introduced by William C. Thompson and Edward Schumann in 1987.[4][5]