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Scientific consensus on climate change

Evaluation of climate change by the scientific community / From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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There is a strong scientific consensus that the Earth is warming and that this warming is mainly caused by human activities. This consensus is supported by various studies of scientists' opinions and by position statements of scientific organizations, many of which explicitly agree with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesis reports.

Observed global warming: Global average temperature data from various scientific organizations show substantial agreement concerning the progress and extent of global warming: pairwise correlations for long-term datasets (1850+ and 1880+) exceed 99.1%.

Nearly all actively publishing climate scientists say humans are causing climate change.[1][2] Surveys of the scientific literature are another way to measure scientific consensus. A 2019 review of scientific papers found the consensus on the cause of climate change to be at 100%,[3] and a 2021 study concluded that over 99% of scientific papers agree on the human cause of climate change.[4] The small percentage of papers that disagreed with the consensus often contain errors or cannot be replicated.[5]

As stated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the largest contributor to global warming is the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) since 1750, particularly from fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and land use changes such as deforestation.[6]:10–11 The IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) stated already in 2013:

Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely (95–100%) that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century

IPCC AR5 WG1 Summary for Policymakers[7]:15

The evidence for global warming due to human influence has been recognized by the national science academies of all the major industrialized countries.[8] In the scientific literature, there is a very strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases.[9] No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view.[10] A few organizations with members in extractive industries hold non-committal positions,[11] and some have tried to persuade the public that climate change is not happening, or if the climate is changing it is not because of human influence,[12][13] attempting to sow doubt in the scientific consensus (see climate change denial).[14]

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