2016 Indiana gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2016 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2016 Indiana gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Indiana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on May 3, 2016. Republican lieutenant governor Eric Holcomb won the race with 51.4% of the vote.

2016 Indiana gubernatorial election

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Nominee Eric Holcomb John R. Gregg Party Republican Democratic Running mate Suzanne Crouch Christina Hale Popular vote 1,397,396 1,235,503 Percentage 51.38% 45.42%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Holcomb:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Gregg:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data

Governor before election Mike Pence Republican Elected Governor Eric Holcomb Republican

Incumbent Republican Governor Mike Pence was running for reelection to a second term in office until July 15, 2016, when then-Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump selected Pence as his vice presidential running mate.^[1] As Pence was barred by Indiana law from simultaneously running for both offices, he subsequently withdrew from the gubernatorial election.^[2] Pence went on to be elected Vice President of the United States. He was replaced on the ballot for governor by his former running mate, incumbent lieutenant governor Eric Holcomb, who was selected by the Indiana Republican State Committee as the nominee on July 26, 2016.^[3] Holcomb later selected State Auditor Suzanne Crouch on August 1, 2016, to be his running mate as the nomination for lieutenant governor was made vacant by the decision of Holcomb to seek the gubernatorial nomination; she was confirmed at a subsequent meeting of the Indiana Republican State Committee later that day.^[3][4]

John Gregg, the former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives, was the Democratic nominee. Gregg previously ran for Governor in 2012, but was defeated by Pence.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Mike Pence, incumbent governor (withdrew after primary to run for Vice President of the United States as the running mate of Donald Trump)^[1]

Declined

• Greg Ballard, former mayor of Indianapolis
• Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative and former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Indiana (ran for re-election)^[5]
• Luke Messer, U.S. Representative (ran for re-election)^[6][7]
• Todd Young, U.S. Representative (ran for the U.S. Senate)^[6][7][8]

Results

Republican primary results^[9]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mike Pence (incumbent)	815,699	100.00%
Total votes			815,699	100.00%

Republican State Committee selection

On July 15, 2016, Donald Trump announced that Pence would be his running mate as vice president in the 2016 presidential election. Under Indiana law, Pence was unable to run for both governor and vice president simultaneously; he therefore withdrew from the gubernatorial election, creating a vacancy on the Republican ticket. On July 26, the chairman of the Indiana Republican Party, Jeff Cardwell, announced that Eric Holcomb had been nominated by the Indiana Republican State Committee to replace Pence on the ballot for governor. The vote totals were not released. Holcomb later selected Suzanne Crouch on August 1, 2016, to be his running mate as the nomination for lieutenant governor was made vacant by the decision of Holcomb to seek the gubernatorial nomination; she was then confirmed by the Committee at a meeting later that day.^[3][4]

Candidates

Declared

• Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative and former United States Attorney for the Southern District of Indiana^[10]
• Eric Holcomb, Lieutenant Governor of Indiana^[10]
  • Running mate: Suzanne Crouch, Indiana State Auditor^[4]
• Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative and former Indiana Secretary of State^[10]
• Jim Tomes, state senator^[11]

Declined

• Brian Bosma, Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives^[10]
• Mitch Daniels, former governor of Indiana^[10]
• Lloyd Winnecke, Mayor of Evansville^[10]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• John R. Gregg, former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for Governor in 2012^[12]
  • Running mate: Christina Hale, state representative^[13]

Withdrawn

• Glenda Ritz, Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction (subsequently ran for re-election)^[14]
• Karen Tallian, state senator^[15]

Declined

• Evan Bayh, former U.S. Senator and former governor of Indiana (ran for the U.S. Senate) ^[16]
• Pete Buttigieg, Mayor of South Bend^[17]
• Greg Goodnight, Mayor of Kokomo^[18]
• Baron Hill, former U.S. Representative and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1990^{[16][19][20][21]}
• Scott Pelath, Minority Leader of the Indiana House of Representatives^[22]
• Tony Roswarski, Mayor of Lafayette^[18]
• Tom Sugar, vice president of Complete College America and former aide to Evan Bayh^[23][24]

Endorsements

John Gregg

Politicians

• Dennis Buckley, Mayor of Beech Grove^[18]
• Doug Campbell, Mayor of Austin^[18]
• Harold "Soup" Campbell, Mayor of North Vernon^[18]
• Dennis Carr, Mayor of Lawrenceburg^[18]
• Anthony Copeland, Mayor of East Chicago^[18]
• Collin Czilli, City Councilman, Portage
• Tom DeBaun, Mayor of Shelbyville^[18]
• Ted Ellis, Mayor of Bluffton^[18]
• Jon Flickinger, Mayor of Bicknell^[18]
• Randy Geesaman, Mayor of Portland^[18]
• Jack Gilfoy, Mayor of Clinton^[18]
• Greg Goodnight, Mayor of Kokomo^[18]
• Noel Harty, Mayor of Loogootee^[18]
• Pam Hendrickson, Mayor of Boonville^[18]
• Tom Henry, Mayor of Fort Wayne^[18]
• Dick Hickman, Mayor of Angola^[18]
• Robert Hurst, Mayor of Princeton^[18]
• Sally Hutton, Mayor of Richmond^[18]
• Dean Jessup, Mayor of Lawrence^[18]
• Mark Kruzan, Mayor of Bloomington^[18]
• Clint Lamb, Mayor of Sullivan^[18]
• Sue Murray, Mayor of Greencastle^[18]
• Gary Pruett, Mayor of Mitchell^[18]
• Glenda Ritz, Indiana Superintendent of Public Instruction^[25][26][27]
• Tony Roswarski, Mayor of Lafayette^[18]
• John Schultz, Mayor of Decatur^[18]
• Brian Snedecor, Mayor of Hobart^[18]
• Joe Stahura, Mayor of Whiting^[18]
• Randy Strasser, Mayor of Delphi^[18]
• Roy Terrell Jr., Mayor of Jasonville^[18]
• John Tucker, Mayor of Mount Vernon^[18]
• Dennis Tyler, Mayor of Muncie^[18]
• David Uran, Mayor of Crown Point^[18]
• John Wilkes, Mayor of Linton^[18]
• Hugh Wirth, Mayor of Oakland City^[18]
• Brian Wyndham, Mayor of Brazil^[18]
• Joe Yochum, Mayor of Vincennes^[18]
• Greg York, Mayor of New Castle^[18]

Organizations

• Indiana State AFL–CIO^[28]

Results

Democratic primary results^[9]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John R. Gregg	547,375	100.00
Total votes			547,375	100.00

Libertarian Party convention

Candidates

Declared

• Rex Bell, businessman^[29]
• Jim Wallace^[29]

Nominated

• Rex Bell, businessman^[29]
  • Running mate: Karl Tatgenhorst

General election

Candidates

• Democratic: John R. Gregg, former Speaker of the Indiana House of Representatives and nominee for Governor in 2012
  • Running mate: Christina Hale, state representative
• Libertarian: Rex Bell, businessman
  • Running mate: Karl Tatgenhorst
• Republican: Eric Holcomb, Lieutenant Governor of Indiana
  • Running mate: Suzanne Crouch, Indiana State Auditor

Debates

• Governor:
  • Complete video of debate, September 27, 2016 - C-SPAN
  • Complete video of debate, October 3, 2016 - C-SPAN
  • Complete video of debate, October 25, 2016 - C-SPAN
• Lt. Governor:
  • Complete video of debate, August 9, 2016 - Hoosier Ag Today

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[30]	Tossup	August 12, 2016
Daily Kos[31]	Tossup	October 14, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[32]	Tilt R	November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33]	Lean D (flip)	November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[34]	Tossup	November 1, 2016
Governing[35]	Tossup	October 27, 2016

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Eric Holcomb (R)	John Gregg (D)	Other/Undecided [a]	Margin
Real Clear Politics[36]	October 27 – November 3, 2016	November 3, 2016	40.7%	44.0%	15.3%	Gregg +3.3%

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Eric Holcomb (R)	John Gregg (D)	Rex Bell (L)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey[37]	November 1–7, 2016	1,700	± 4.6%	47%	49%	–	4%
SurveyMonkey[38]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	1,383	± 4.6%	46%	49%	–	5%
WTHR/Howey[39]	November 1–3, 2016	600	± 4.0%	42%	42%	5%	11%
SurveyMonkey[40]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	923	± 4.6%	47%	47%	–	6%
SurveyMonkey[41]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	790	± 4.6%	48%	47%	–	5%
Gravis Marketing[42]	October 30 – November 1, 2016	399	± 4.9%	38%	42%	4%	16%
SurveyMonkey[43]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	638	± 4.6%	49%	47%	–	4%
SurveyMonkey[44]	October 25–31, 2016	674	± 4.6%	47%	48%	–	5%
Monmouth University[45]	October 27–30, 2016	402	± 4.9%	42%	48%	4%	5%
Gravis Marketing[46]	October 22–24, 2016	596	± 2.3%	38%	42%	4%	16%
Ball State University (PSRAI)[47]	October 10–16, 2016	544	± 4.8%	43%	48%	–	–
Monmouth University[48]	October 11–13, 2016	402	± 4.9%	38%	50%	4%	7%
BK Strategies (R-Holcomb)[49]	October 11–13, 2016	800	± 3.5%	42%	42%	3%	13%
WTHR/Howey[50]	October 3–5, 2016	600	± 4.0%	39%	41%	5%	15%
WTHR/Howey[51]	September 6–8, 2016	600	± 4.0%	35%	40%	6%	19%
Monmouth University[52]	August 13–16, 2016	403	± 4.9%	42%	41%	4%	13%
Expedition Strategies (D-Gregg)[53]	August 1–3, 2016	600	± 4.0%	39%	46%	6%	9%
The Tarrance Group[54]	July 20–21, 2016	503	± 4.4%	34%	42%	–	24%

Hypothetical polling

with Mike Pence

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Pence (R)	John Gregg (D)	Other	Undecided
Bellwether Research[55]	May 11–15, 2016	600	± 4.0%	40%	36%	—	24%
WTHR/Howey[56]	April 18–21, 2016	500	± 4.3%	49%	45%	1%	5%
Bellwether Research[57]	May 29–June 3, 2015	800	± 3.5%	40%	41%	—	19%
Bellwether Research[58]	April 12–14, 2015	607	± 4.0%	43%	37%	—	21%
GQR Research[59]	April 7–9, 2015	500	± 4.4%	47%	47%	—	6%

with Susan Brooks

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Susan Brooks (R)	John Gregg (D)	Other	Undecided
The Tarrance Group[54]	July 20–21, 2016	503	± 4.4%	36%	41%	—	23%

with Todd Rokita

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Todd Rokita (R)	John Gregg (D)	Other	Undecided
The Tarrance Group[54]	July 20–21, 2016	503	± 4.4%	36%	41%	—	23%
Public Opinion Strategies[60]	July 16–18, 2016	600	± 4.0%	45%	43%	—	12%

with Baron Hill

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Pence (R)	Baron Hill (D)	Undecided
Bellwether Research[61]	April 12–14, 2015	607	± 4%	43%	36%	21%

with Glenda Ritz

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mike Pence (R)	Glenda Ritz (D)	Other	Undecided
Bellwether Research[57]	May 29–June 3, 2015	800	± 3.5%	42%	42%	—	16%
Bellwether Research[62]	April 12–14, 2015	607	± 4%	42%	39%	—	18%

Results

Holcomb won with 51.4% of the votes, with Gregg taking 45.4%, and Libertarian Rex Bell finishing with 3.2%.^[63]

2016 Indiana gubernatorial election^[64]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Eric Holcomb/Suzanne Crouch	1,397,396	51.38%	+1.89%
	Democratic	John R. Gregg/Christina Hale	1,235,503	45.42%	−1.14%
	Libertarian	Rex Bell	87,025	3.20%	−0.75%
	Write-in		44	0.00%	0.00%
Total votes			2,719,968	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Crawford (largest city: Marengo)
• Greene (largest city: Linton)
• Madison (largest city: Anderson)
• Pike (largest city: Petersburg)
• Scott (largest city: Scottsburg)
• Starke (largest city: Knox)

By congressional district

Holcomb won seven of nine congressional districts.^[65]

District	Holcomb	Gregg	Representative
1st	36%	62%	Pete Visclosky
2nd	53%	43%	Jackie Walorski
3rd	60%	37%	Marlin Stutzman
4th	58%	39%	Todd Rokita
5th	52%	45%	Susan Brooks
6th	59%	36%	Luke Messer
7th	34%	63%	André Carson
8th	52%	45%	Larry Bucshon
9th	56%	41%	Todd Young

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.