Campaign polls

More information Opinion polls during campaign period, Polling firm ...

Opinion polls during campaign period
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Source	PC	NDP	Liberal	Green	New Blue	Ontario	Other	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling type	Lead
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Source								Margin of error	Sample size	Polling type	Lead
Forum Research	June 1, 2022	^{[p 1]}	40.3	23.2	24.5	6.5	—	—	5.5	±3.1%	1,032	IVR	15.8
Research Co.	June 1, 2022	^{[p 2]}	39	23	26	6	3	1	1	+3.8%	659	Online	13
EKOS	June 1, 2022	^{[p 3]}	37	23.5	24.7	8.7	4.4	—	2	+2.6%	1,430	IVR	12.3
Abacus Data	June 1, 2022	^{[p 4]}	40	22	27	4	4	—	3	N/A	1,043	Online	13
Mainstreet Research	June 1, 2022	^{[p 5]}	38.9	22.8	24.2	9.4	—	—	4.7	+2.2%	2,034 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	14.7
Ipsos	May 31, 2022	^{[p 6]}	41	25	24	6	—	—	4	+2.2%	2,501	Telephone/Online	16
Nanos Research	May 31, 2022	^{[p 7]}	38.8	24.7	26.3	6.1	2	2.1	0.2	±4.5%	465	Telephone/Online	12.5
Mainstreet Research	May 31, 2022	^{[p 5]}	35.4	23.9	26.2	9.2	—	—	5.2	+2.1%	2,086 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	9.2
Leger	May 30, 2022	^{[p 8]}	40	24	25	5	3	2	1	N/A	1,334	Online	15
Innovative Research Group	May 30, 2022	^{[p 9]}	34	24	29	8	3	—	2	N/A	637	Online	5
Mainstreet Research	May 30, 2022	^{[p 5]}	39.3	22.5	26.8	6.4	—	—	5.1	+2.1%	2,089 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	12.5
Earnscliffe/Leger	May 29, 2022	^{[p 10]}	39	24	26	5	—	—	6	N/A	1,000	Online	13
Mainstreet Research	May 29, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36.6	23.5	27.2	6.8	—	—	5.8	+2.2%	1,921 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	9.4
Counsel	May 28, 2022	^{[p 11]}	39.6	22.5	25.1	7.1	—	—	5.7	+2%	2,411	Online	14.5
Mainstreet Research	May 28, 2022	^{[p 5]}	37.3	23.2	26.3	7.1	—	—	6.1	+2.3%	1,789 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	11
Mainstreet Research	May 27, 2022	^{[p 5]}	39.1	20.8	26.5	7.8	—	—	5.8	+2.4%	1,694 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	12.6
Innovative Research Group	May 27, 2022	^{[p 12]}	40	21	28	9	—	—	3	N/A	492	Telephone	12
Mainstreet Research	May 26, 2022	^{[p 5]}	38.3	21.6	26.9	7.6	—	—	5.7	+2.4%	1,704 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	11.4
Angus Reid	May 25, 2022	^{[p 13]}	38	24	26	7	—	—	5	N/A	1,331	Online	12
EKOS	May 25, 2022	^{[p 14]}	33.7	23.8	26.9	8	4.7	—	3	+3.1%	1,017	IVR	6.8
Mainstreet Research	May 25, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36	23.5	26.1	8.5	—	—	5.9	+2.4%	1,622 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	9.9
Mainstreet Research	May 24, 2022	^{[p 5]}	35.3	23.1	27.2	8	—	—	6.4	+2.4%	1,724 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	8.1
Leger	May 23, 2022	^{[p 15]}	38	24	26	6	3	2	1	N/A	1,324	Online	12
Innovative Research Group	May 23, 2022	^{[p 16]}	35	23	30	9	—	—	4	N/A	439	Online	5
Mainstreet Research	May 23, 2022	^{[p 5]}	35.4	24.2	25.2	7.8	—	—	7.4	+2.4%	1,696 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	10.2
Nanos Research	May 22, 2022	^{[p 17]}	37.3	23.2	28	6.3	3	1.7	0.3	±4.5%	479	Telephone/Online	9.3
Earnscliffe/Leger	May 22, 2022	^{[p 18]}	36	24	28	6	—	—	6	N/A	1,000	Online	8
EKOS	May 22, 2022	^{[p 19]}	34.5	24.1	26.7	6.6	5.3	—	2.7	+3.2%	948	IVR	7.8
Mainstreet Research	May 22, 2022	^{[p 5]}	35	23.8	25.1	8.2	—	—	7.9	+2.4%	1,709 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	9.9
Abacus Data	May 21, 2022	^{[p 20]}	36	24	28	5	—	—	8	N/A	1,228	Online	8
Mainstreet Research	May 21, 2022	^{[p 5]}	34.4	25.1	26.7	7.2	—	—	6.5	+2.4%	1,679 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	7.7
Mainstreet Research	May 20, 2022	^{[p 5]}	35.5	26.1	25.7	6.5	—	—	6.3	+2.4%	1,734 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	9.4
Pollara	May 19, 2022	^{[p 21]}	40	21	27	8	—	—	4	+2.5%	1,514	Telephone	13
Ipsos	May 19, 2022	^{[p 22]}	38	23	28	6	—	—	5	+2.9%	1,501	Telephone/Online	10
Innovative Research Group	May 19, 2022	^{[p 23]}	36	26	28	8	—	—	2	N/A	606	Online	8
Mainstreet Research	May 19, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36.9	24.7	26.2	5.1	—	—	7.2	+2.4%	1,686 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	10.7
Counsel	May 18, 2022	^{[p 24]}	36.9	24.3	27.5	6.1	—	—	5.3	+2.1%	2,206	Online	9.4
Mainstreet Research	May 18, 2022	^{[p 5]}	37.2	23.4	24.8	6.7	—	—	7.8	+2.4%	1,720 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	12.8
Nanos Research	May 17, 2022	^{[p 25]}	36.1	19.8	29.3	7.3	4.7	1.7	1.1	±4.5%	484	Telephone/Online	6.8
Research Co.	May 17, 2022	^{[p 26]}	34	23	29	7	3	1	2	+4%	602	Online	5
EKOS	May 17, 2022	^{[p 19]}	40.7	23.9	24.3	5.1	—	—	6.1	+4%	593	IVR	16.4
Mainstreet Research	May 17, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36.8	23.1	27.2	5.6	—	—	7.3	+2.4%	1,675 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	9.6
Innovative Research Group	May 16, 2022	^{[p 27]}	36	23	31	7	—	—	4	N/A	603	Online	5
Mainstreet Research	May 16, 2022	^{[p 5]}	37.9	22.8	27.7	4.9	—	—	6.8	+2.4%	1,675 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	10.2
Earnscliffe/Leger	May 15, 2022	^{[p 28]}	37	23	28	7	—	—	5	N/A	1,000	Online	9
Leger	May 15, 2022	^{[p 29]}	37	23	28	5	3	3	1	N/A	830	Online	9
Abacus Data	May 15, 2022	^{[p 30]}	35	24	28	5	—	—	7	N/A	798	Online	7
Mainstreet Research	May 15, 2022	^{[p 5]}	35.5	24.8	26.8	4.4	—	—	8.5	+2.3%	1,792 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	8.7
Mainstreet Research	May 14, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36	25.4	27.6	4.1	—	—	7	+2.3%	1,764 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	8.4
Mainstreet Research	May 13, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36	24.4	26.8	5.2	—	—	7.5	+2.3%	1,773 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	9.2
Mainstreet Research	May 12, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36.6	22.6	28.6	5.2	—	—	7	+2.4%	1,639 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	8
Mainstreet Research	May 11, 2022	^{[p 5]}	38.8	21.1	28.1	5.4	—	—	6.6	+2.4%	1,673 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	10.7
Mainstreet Research	May 10, 2022	^{[p 5]}	39.0	22.3	27.1	4.6	—	—	7	+2.4%	1,639 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	11.9
Mainstreet Research	May 9, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36.5	23.5	29	4.9	—	—	6.1	+2.5%	1,639 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	7.5
Abacus Data	May 9, 2022	^{[p 31]}	38	22	29	5	—	—	7	N/A	1,208	Online	9
Innovative Research Group	May 9, 2022	^{[p 32]}	40	24	28	6	—	—	3	N/A	600	Online	12
EKOS	May 9, 2022	^{[p 33]}	33.9	25.4	29.3	5.1	—	—	6.3	+3.1%	1,000	IVR	4.6
Nanos Research	May 8, 2022	^{[p 34]}	35.4	23.7	30.4	4.2	3.6	1.4	1.2	±4.4%	500	Telephone/Online	5.0
Earnscliffe/Leger	May 8, 2022	^{[p 35]}	39	24	27	6	—	—	3	N/A	1,000	Online	12
Leger	May 8, 2022	^{[p 36]}	39	25	26	4	3	1	2	N/A	819	Online	13
Mainstreet Research	May 8, 2022	^{[p 5]}	37	23	30	5	—	—	5	+2.5%	1,515 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	7
Mainstreet Research	May 7, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36.3	24.2	30.2	4.6	—	—	4.6	+2.5%	1,496 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	6.1
Mainstreet Research	May 6, 2022	^{[p 5]}	38.3	24.5	29.1	4	—	—	4	+2.5%	1,532 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	9.2
Mainstreet Research	May 5, 2022	^{[p 5]}	37.4	25.7	28.1	4.6	—	—	4.2	±2.7%	1,335 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	9.3
Forum Research	May 4, 2022	^{[p 37]}	37	26	29	4	—	—	4	±3%	1,541	IVR	8
Mainstreet Research	May 4, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36.7	25.1	27.1	5.7	—	—	5.3	±2.7%	1,335 (1/3)	IVR (rolling)	9.6

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Pre-campaign polls

More information Opinion polling before campaign period began, Polling firm ...

Opinion polling before campaign period began
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Source	PC	NDP	Liberal	Green	New Blue	Ontario	Other	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling type	Lead
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Source								Margin of error	Sample size	Polling type	Lead
Nanos Research	May 2, 2022	^{[p 38]}	36.9	23.7	30.4	4.3	0.9	2.8	0.8	±4.4%	500	Telephone/Online	6.5
Innovative Research Group	May 2, 2022	^{[p 39]}	37	24	29	7	—	—	2	N/A	1,409	Online	8
Earnscliffe/Leger	May 1, 2022	^{[p 40]}	35	24	28	7	—	—	6	N/A	1,001	Online	7
Ipsos	May 1, 2022	^{[p 41]}	39	25	26	6	—	—	5	±2.9%	1,501	Telephone/Online	13
Mainstreet Research	April 27, 2022	^{[p 5]}	38.1	18.1	30.4	5.1	—	—	8.3	±2.6%	1,422	IVR	7.7
Earnscliffe/Leger	April 24, 2022	^{[p 42]}	38	25	28	5	—	—	5	N/A	1,000	Online	10
Abacus Data	April 19, 2022	^{[p 43]}	36	23	32	6	—	—	4	±2.1%	1,500	Online	4
Mainstreet Research	April 19, 2022	^{[p 5]}	39.6	21.2	25.4	5.6	—	—	7.6	±2.8%	1,211	IVR	14.2
Ipsos	April 14, 2022	^{[p 44]}	35	23	32	5	—	—	5	±3.5%	1,001	Online	3
Mainstreet Research	April 12, 2022	^{[p 5]}	36	24	28	5	—	—	6	±2.8%	1239	IVR	8
Mainstreet Research	April 6, 2022	^{[p 5]}	39.2	24.1	25.8	3.4	—	—	7.5	±2.7%	1,289	IVR	13.4
Mainstreet Research	March 31, 2022	^{[p 45]}	36	22	31	4	—	—	7	±2.8%	1,252	IVR	5
Leger	March 28, 2022	^{[p 46]}	39	24	25	5	5	—	3	±3.1%	1,001	Online	14
Angus Reid	March 15, 2022	^{[p 47]}	37	29	25	4	—	—	5	±3%	1,063	Online	8
Ipsos	March 15, 2022	^{[p 48]}	38	24	28	4	—	—	5	±3.8%	850	Online	10
Mainstreet Research	March 13, 2022	^{[p 49]}	33.9	25.7	27.8	5	—	—	7.6	±3%	1,026	IVR	6.1
Leger	February 27, 2022	^{[p 50]}	39	27	27	3	2	—	2^{[lower-alpha 1]}	±3.1%	1,001	Online	12
Mainstreet Research	January 25, 2022	^{[p 51]}	34.6	22.4	27.3	3.5	—	—	12.3	±3%	882	IVR	7.3
Leger	January 24, 2022	^{[p 52]}	37	25	26	7	3	—	5^{[lower-alpha 2]}	±3.1%	1,000	Online	11
Counsel	January 23, 2022	^{[p 53]}	34.9	30.5	24.2	4.4	—	—	6	±2.1%	2,273	Online	4.4
EKOS	January 17, 2022	^{[p 54]}	34.8	26.6	26.3	4.9	—	—	7.5	±3.5%	844	IVR	8.2
Abacus Data	January 12, 2022	^{[p 55]}	37	25	28	5	—	—	2.5	±3.1%	1,210	Online	9
Angus Reid	January 12, 2022	^{[p 56]}	33	36	19	4	—	—	8	N/A	909	Online	3
Innovative Research Group	January 11, 2022	^{[p 57]}	35	22	36	5	—	—	2	N/A	428	Online	1
Mainstreet Research	January 7, 2022	^{[p 58]}	30.6	27.0	27.9	5.5	—	—	9.0	±2.7%	1,246	IVR	2.7
December 14, 2021	Derek Sloan announced as the Leader of the Ontario Party
Leger	December 13, 2021	^{[p 59]}	38	28	25	5	2	—	3	±3.1%	1,000	Online	10
EKOS	November 25, 2021	^{[p 60]}	32.8	23.1	28.3	5.2	—	—	10.5	±4.1%	569	IVR	4.5
Innovative Research Group	November 17, 2021	^{[p 61]}	34.8	27	32.6	3.4	—	—	2.2	N/A	1,000	Online	2.2
Leger	November 14, 2021	^{[p 62]}	34	26	31	6	2	—	1	±3.1%	1,001	Online	3
Leger	October 10, 2021	^{[p 63]}	35	25	30	5	—	—	5	±3.1%	1,003	Online	5
Angus Reid	October 3, 2021	^{[p 64]}	34	32	25	4	—	—	5	N/A	910	Online	2
Angus Reid	June 7, 2021	^{[p 65]}	37	33	22	6	—	—	3	±2%	791	Online	4
Leger	May 23, 2021	^{[p 66]}	34	25	26	9	—	—	—	±3.1%	1,001	Online	8
Mainstreet Research	May 16, 2021	^{[p 67]}	32.7	28.2	26.9	6.3	—	—	5.9	±3%	958	IVR	4.5
Campaign Research	May 8, 2021	^{[p 68]}	36	25	28	7	—	—	4	±2%	2,009	Online	8
Innovative Research Group	May 4, 2021	^{[p 69]}	32	22	36	8	—	—	2	N/A	481	Online	4
Abacus Data	April 21, 2021	^{[p 70]}	34	23	35	5	—	—	2	±3.1%	1,007	Online	1
Innovative Research Group	April 20, 2021	^{[p 71]}	30	26	35	8	—	—	1	N/A	800	Online	5
Abacus Data	April 14, 2021	^{[p 72]}	34	23	34	5	—	—	4	±3.5%	817	Online	0
Innovative Research Group	April 13, 2021	^{[p 73]}	32	24	33	8	—	—	2	N/A	704	Online	1
EKOS	April 12, 2021	^{[p 74]}	34.6	23.5	29.9	8.9	—	—	3	±2.8%	1,204	IVR	4.7
Campaign Research	April 6, 2021	^{[p 75]}	41	22	24	10	—	—	2	±2.3%	1,886	Online	17
Leger	March 22, 2021	^{[p 76]}	38	28	23	8	—	—	3	±3.1%	1,002	Online	10
Campaign Research	March 11, 2021	^{[p 77]}	43	25	20	9	—	—	3	±2.7%	1,344	Online	18
Mainstreet Research	February 16, 2021	^{[p 78]}	43	22	25	6	—	—	4	±3.08%	1,011	IVR	18
Campaign Research	January 31, 2021	^{[p 79]}	44	25	21	8	—	—	3	±2.6%	1,427	Online	19
Abacus Data	January 12, 2021	^{[p 80]}	34	25	29	8	—	—	3	±3.48%	793	Online	5
Mainstreet Research	December 5, 2020	^{[p 81]}	46.2	23.4	19.9	6.2	—	—	4.3	±2.94%	1,014	IVR	22.8
Campaign Research	December 3, 2020	^{[p 82]}	45	20	24	8	—	—	5	±3%	1,001	Online	21
Angus Reid	November 30, 2020	^{[p 83]}	42	28	22	5	—	—	3	N/A	1,049	Online	14
Campaign Research	November 2, 2020	^{[p 84]}	48	21	23	7	—	—	1	±3%	1,118	Online	25
Abacus Data	October 30, 2020	^{[p 85]}	36	25	29	7	—	—	3	±3.1%	1,000	Online	7
October 12, 2020	Jim Karahalios forms the New Blue Party
Abacus Data	October 12, 2020	^{[p 86]}	36	29	26	6	—	—	2	±3.1%	1,000	Online	7
Campaign Research	October 2, 2020	^{[p 87]}	46	24	20	9	—	—	2	±3%	1,017	Online	22
Campaign Research	September 3, 2020	^{[p 88]}	48	22	24	6	—	—	2	±3%	1,129	Online	24
Angus Reid	September 1, 2020	^{[p 89]}	45	28	22	4	—	—	1	±3%	1,026	Online	17
Campaign Research	August 13, 2020	^{[p 90]}	41	23	26	8	—	—	3	±2%	2,013	Online	15
Innovative Research Group	July 20, 2020	^{[p 91]}	36	18	37	8	—	—	1	N/A	974	Online	1
Campaign Research	July 10, 2020	^{[p 92]}	45	20	27	7	—	—	1	±3%	1,395	Online	18
Innovative Research Group	June 23, 2020	^{[p 93]}	31	21	39	9	—	—	1	N/A	838	Online	8
Mainstreet Research	June 7, 2020	^{[p 94]}	41.8	23.0	27.7	5.5	—	—	2.0	±3%	1,068	IVR	14.1
Campaign Research	June 2, 2020	^{[p 95]}	44	22	27	6	—	—	2	±2.5%	1,512	Online	17
Innovative Research Group	June 1, 2020	^{[p 96]}	33	20	38	9	—	—	0	N/A	698	Online	5
Angus Reid	May 24, 2020	^{[p 97]}	43	26	25	6	—	—	1	N/A	1,061	Online	17
Abacus Data	May 22, 2020	^{[p 98]}	36	19	38	5	—	—	2	±4.1%	597	Online	2
Innovative Research Group	May 5, 2020	^{[p 99]}	34	18	39	7	—	—	1	N/A	791	Online	5
EKOS	March 26, 2020	^{[p 100]}	31.5	17.9	40.4	7.1	—	—	3.1	±3.5%	774	IVR	8.9
Mainstreet Research	March 20, 2020	^{[p 101]}	33.1	23.2	33.0	6.9	—	—	3.8	±2.73%	1,017	IVR	0.1
7 March 2020	Steven Del Duca is elected as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
Campaign Research	March 5, 2020	^{[p 102]}	32	28	28	10	—	—	2	±2.9%	1,144	Online	4
Angus Reid	February 28, 2020	^{[p 103]}	36	31	24	8	—	—	1	±3.0%	1,051	Online	5
Campaign Research	February 26, 2020	^{[p 104]}	32	28	29	9	—	—	3	±3.1%	1,003	Online	3
Campaign Research	February 9, 2020	^{[p 105]}	30	26	30	11	—	—	3	±2.5%	1,536	Online	0
EKOS	January 19, 2020	^{[p 106]}	31.1	21.2	36.2	9.1	—	—	2.3	±3.9%	634	IVR	5.1
Pollara	January 11, 2020	^{[p 107]}	29	27	33	9	—	—	2	±2.1%	2,198	Online	4
EKOS	December 10, 2019	^{[p 108]}	29.9	24.4	32.4	9.4	—	—	3.9	±3.4%	811	IVR	2.5
Campaign Research	September 9, 2019	^{[p 109]}	32	27	28	11	—	—	2	±3.17%	957	Online	4
Corbett Communications	August 16, 2019	^{[p 110]}	30	28	30	11	—	—	2	±3.0%	1,099	Online	0
Corbett Communications	July 10, 2019	^{[p 111]}	28	26	28	15	—	—	3	±3.0%	936	Online	0
Corbett Communications	June 6, 2019	^{[p 112]}	32	27	26	13	—	—	1	±3.0%	1,555	Online	5
Mainstreet Research	May 22, 2019	^{[p 113]}	22.4	24.2	39.9	11.7	—	—	1.8	±3.1%	996	IVR	15.7
Ipsos	May 21, 2019	^{[p 114]}	30	29	32	—	—	—	10	±3.5%	1,000	Online	2
Corbett Communications	May 3, 2019	^{[p 115]}	35	25	27	12	—	—	1	±2.4%	1,836	Online	8
Pollara	May 1, 2019	^{[p 116]}	30	31	26	11	—	—	1	±2.5%	1,527	Online	1
Mainstreet Research	March 22, 2019	^{[p 117]}	34.4	26.6	26.0	9.4	—	—	3.6	±2.73%	1,290	IVR	7.8
Innovative Research Group	January 24, 2019	^{[p 118]}	33	23	36	7	—	—	1		751	Online	3
Mainstreet Research	January 17, 2019	^{[p 119]}	41.4	27.0	22.6	7.0	—	—	2.2	±2.92%	1,127	IVR	14.4
EKOS	December 3, 2018	^{[p 120]}	34.3	26.1	28.0	9.4	—	—	2.3	±3.1%	1,025	IVR	6.3
Campaign Research	November 9, 2018	^{[p 121]}	34	25	32	7	—	—	2	±2.3%	1,830	Online	2
Mainstreet Research	November 7, 2018	^{[p 122]}	42.2	26.5	21.3	6.4	—	—	3.5	±2.79%	1,229	IVR	15.7
Innovative Research Group	October 28, 2018	^{[p 123]}	35	25	32	7	—	—	1		1,628	Online	3
Abacus Data	October 1, 2018	^{[p 124]}	36	29	24	8	—	—	3		1,500	Online	7
Mainstreet Research	July 17, 2018	^{[p 125]}	41.7	27.8	21.3	6.7	—	—	2.5	±2.27%	1,861	IVR	13.9
29 June 2018	Doug Ford is sworn in as Premier of Ontario
Innovative Research Group	June 21, 2018	^{[p 118]}	37	36	19	7	—	—	2	±4.0%	607	Telephone	1
14 June 2018	John Fraser becomes interim leader of the Ontario Liberal Party
7 June 2018	Kathleen Wynne resigns as leader of the Ontario Liberal Party

2018 election	June 7, 2018	—	40.50	33.56	19.59	4.60	—	0.04	1.74	—	5,744,860	—	6.94
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Source								Margin of error	Sample size	Polling type	Lead
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Source	PC	NDP	Liberal	Green	New Blue	Ontario	Other	Margin of error	Sample size	Polling type	Lead

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Notes

1% for Ontario First.
2% for Ontario First.