2022 United States Senate election in Washington

Not to be confused with 2022 Washington State Senate election.

The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Murray had won election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote.^[1]

2022 United States Senate election in Washington

← 2016 November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2028 →

Candidate Patty Murray Tiffany Smiley Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,741,827 1,299,322 Percentage 57.15% 42.63%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Murray:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Smiley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data

U.S. senator before election Patty Murray Democratic Elected U.S. senator Patty Murray Democratic

Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.2% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley.^[2]

Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error. A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset.^[3] Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean.^[4] Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state.^[5]

Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress, becoming the first woman to hold the role.^[6]

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Advanced to general

• Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator and Assistant Democratic Leader^[1][7]

Eliminated in primary

• Pano Churchill, candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016^[7]
• Sam Cusmir^[7]
• Ravin Pierre, aerospace engineer and data scientist^[7]
• Mohammed Said, physician and perennial candidate^[7]
• Bryan Solstin, aerospace engineer and software developer^[7]

Withdrawn before primary

• David Ishii
• Nicolaust Sleister
• Robert Kirby

Republican candidates

Advanced to general

• Tiffany Smiley, nurse^[8][7]

Eliminated in primary

• John Guenther, state employee^[7]
• Bill Hirt, perennial candidate^[7]

Withdrawn before primary

• Bob Hagglund, IT professional
• Isaac Holyk, CEO of a software development Company

Third party and independent candidates

Eliminated in primary

• Thor Amundson (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018 and governor in 2020^[7]
• Jon Butler (no party preference)^[7]
• Henry Clay Dennison (Socialist Workers), perennial candidate^[7]
• Dan Phan Doan (no party preference)^[7]
• Martin D. Hash (no party preference)^[7]
• Chuck Jackson (independent), candidate for U.S. Senate in 2012 and 2016^[7]
• Leon Lawson (Trump Republican), candidate for governor in 2020^[7]
• Naz Paul (independent), real estate developer^[7]
• Dave Saulibio (JFK Republican), U.S. Army veteran, candidate for Washington's 5th congressional district in 2018 and Washington's 8th congressional district in 2020^[7]

Withdrawn before primary

• Mfumu Metamorphosis Mpiana
• Larry Hussey

Endorsements

Patty Murray (D)

Organizations

• Council for a Livable World^[9]
• EMILY's List^[10]
• End Citizens United^[11]
• Feminist Majority PAC^[12]
• Giffords^[13]
• Jewish Dems^[14]
• King County Democratic Party^[15]
• League of Conservation Voters^[16]
• Let America Vote^[11]
• NARAL Pro-Choice America^[17]
• National Women's Political Caucus^[18]
• Natural Resources Defense Council^[19]
• Population Connection Action Fund^[20]
• Sierra Club^[21]
• Women's Political Committee^[22]

Labor unions

• Service Employees International Union Local 775^[23]
• Washington AFL–CIO^[24]

Newspapers

• The Seattle Times^[25]
• The Stranger^[26]

Tiffany Smiley (R)

Executive Branch officials

• Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)^[27]

U.S. Senators

• Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present)^[28]
• Rick Scott, U.S Senator from Florida (2019–present) and former governor of Florida (2011–2019)^[29]

U.S. Representatives

• Doc Hastings, former U.S. Representative from Washington's 4th congressional district (1995–2015)^[30]
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative from Washington's 5th congressional district (2005–2025)^[31]
• Elise Stefanik, U.S. Representative from New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)^[32]

Individuals

• John Stockton, former NBA player^[33]

Organizations

• Benton County Republican Party^[34]
• King County Republican Party^[35]
• Stand for America PAC^[36]
• Washington State Republican Party^[37]
• Winning For Women PAC^[38]

Results

Blanket primary results by county

  Murray

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

  Smiley

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

Blanket primary election results^[39][40]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patty Murray (incumbent)	1,002,811	52.22%
	Republican	Tiffany Smiley	646,917	33.69%
	Trump Republican	Leon Lawson	59,134	3.08%
	Republican	John Guenther	55,426	2.89%
	Democratic	Ravin Pierre	22,172	1.15%
	JFK Republican	Dave Saulibio	19,341	1.01%
	Independent	Naz Paul	18,858	0.98%
	Republican	Bill Hirt	15,276	0.80%
	Democratic	Mohammad Hassan Said	13,995	0.73%
	Socialist Workers	Henry Clay Dennison	13,901	0.72%
	Democratic	Dr Pano Churchill	11,859	0.62%
	Democratic	Bryan Solstin	9,627	0.50%
	Independent	Charlie (Chuck) Jackson	8,604	0.45%
	Independent	Jon Butler	5,413	0.28%
	Independent	Thor Amundson	5,133	0.27%
	No party preference	Martin D. Hash	4,725	0.25%
	No party preference	Dan Phan Doan	3,049	0.16%
	Democratic	Sam Cusmir	2,688	0.14%
	Write-in		1,511	0.08%
Total votes			1,920,440	100.0%

General election

Debates

Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University.^[41] The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle.^[42]

Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University.

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[43]	Likely D	October 18, 2022
Inside Elections[44]	Likely D	July 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45]	Likely D	October 19, 2022
Politico[46]	Lean D	November 3, 2022
RCP[47]	Tossup	October 30, 2022
Fox News[48]	Likely D	November 1, 2022
DDHQ[49]	Likely D	September 12, 2022
538[50]	Likely D	October 19, 2022
The Economist[51]	Likely D	September 7, 2022

Post-primary endorsements

Patty Murray (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

• Kamala Harris, Vice President of the United States (2021–2025), and former U.S. Senator from California (2017–2021)^[52]

Labor unions

• National Education Association^[53]

Newspapers

• The Olympian^[54]
• Tacoma News Tribune^[55]
• Tri-City Herald^[56]

Tiffany Smiley (R)

U.S. Senators

• Marsha Blackburn, U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative from Tennessee's 7th congressional district (2003–2019)^[57][58]
• Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present) and former U.S. Representative from Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013–2015)^[59][60]
• Steve Daines, U.S. Senator from Montana (2015-present) and former U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district (2013-2015)
• Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present) and former U.S. Representative from South Carolina's 1st congressional district (2011-2013)^[58]

Governors

• Larry Hogan, 62nd governor of Maryland (2015–2023)^[61]
• Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–2025), and former U.S. Representative from South Dakota's at-large congressional district (2011–2019)^[62]

Organizations

• Log Cabin Republicans^[63]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Patty Murray (D)	Tiffany Smiley (R)	Undecided [a]	Margin
Real Clear Politics[64]	October 14–31, 2022	November 3, 2022	49.3%	46.3%	4.4%	Murray +3.0
FiveThirtyEight[65]	May 25, 2021 – November 8, 2022	November 7, 2022	49.6%	44.9%	6.5%	Murray +4.7
270ToWin[66]	October 21 – November 1, 2022	November 7, 2022	49.5%	44.5%	6.0%	Murray +4.3
Average			49.5%	45.2%	5.3%	Murray +4.3

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Tiffany Smiley (R)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information Group (R)[67][A]	November 3–5, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	47%	–	5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[68][B]	October 31, 2022	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	48%	46%	–	6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[69]	October 25–28, 2022	1,207 (LV)	± 2.9%	49%	48%	–	2%
Triton Polling & Research[70][C]	October 26–27, 2022	506 (LV)	± 4.4%	51%	45%	–	4%
Moore Information Group (R)[71][A]	October 20–22, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	46%	–	8%
KAConsulting (R)[72][D]	October 20–22, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	42%	4%[c]	6%
co/efficient (R)[73]	October 19–20, 2022	1,181 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	45%	–	7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[74][E]	October 19–20, 2022	782 (LV)	± 3.5%	52%	42%	–	6%
SurveyUSA[75]	October 14–19, 2022	589 (LV)	± 5.0%	49%	41%	–	10%
Civiqs[76]	October 15–18, 2022	698 (LV)	± 4.5%	55%	41%	3%[d]	2%
Emerson College[77]	September 29 – October 1, 2022	782 (LV)	± 3.4%	51%	42%	–	7%
Public Policy Polling (D)[78]	September 27–28, 2022	770 (V)	± 3.5%	52%	40%	–	8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[79][F]	September 20–27, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	42%	5%[e]	6%
Strategies 360[80]	September 22–25, 2022	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	50%	36%	–	14%
		370 (LV)	± 5.1%	52%	40%	–	8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[81]	September 21–24, 2022	1,091 (LV)	± 2.9%	49%	47%	–	5%
Elway Research[82]	September 12–15, 2022	403 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	37%	–	12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[83]	September 6–7, 2022	620 (V)	± 3.0%	48%	39%	–	13%
Moore Information Group (R)[71][A]	September 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	44%	–	8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[84]	August 30 – September 1, 2022	1,087 (LV)	± 2.9%	49%	46%	–	5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[85]	August 15–17, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	49%	43%	–	8%
Elway Research[86]	July 7–11, 2022	400 (RV)	± 4.5%	53%	33%	–	15%
SurveyUSA[87]	July 6–10, 2022	596 (LV)	± 5.0%	51%	33%	–	16%
The Tarrance Group (R)[88][G]	June 14–19, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	43%	–	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[89][E]	June 1–2, 2022	1,039 (LV)	± 3.0%	51%	40%	–	8%
Public Policy Polling (D)[90][E]	February 17–18, 2022	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	50%	41%	–	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[91][E]	November 10–11, 2021	909 (LV)	± 3.3%	50%	37%	–	13%
SurveyUSA[92]	October 25–28, 2021	542 (RV)	± 5.2%	49%	31%	–	20%
Public Policy Polling (D)[93][E]	May 25–26, 2021	992 (LV)	± 3.1%	53%	37%	–	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Generic Republican	Undecided
Elway Research[94]	December 26–28, 2021	400 (RV)	± 5.0%	42%	39%	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[b]	Margin of error	Patty Murray (D)	Generic Opponent	Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[85]	August 15–17, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	44%	12%

Hypothetical polling

Patty Murray vs. generic Republican

Patty Murray vs. generic opponent

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Washington^[95]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Patty Murray (incumbent)	1,741,827	57.15%	−1.68%
	Republican	Tiffany Smiley	1,299,322	42.63%	+1.77%
	Write-in		6,751	0.22%	-0.09%
Total votes			3,047,900	100.0%
	Democratic hold

By county

By county

County[96] Patty Murray Democratic Tiffany Smiley Republican Write-In Total % # % # % # Adams 23.46% 969 76.25% 3,150 0.29% 12 4,131 Asotin 35.27% 3,181 64.58% 5,824 0.14% 13 9,018 Benton 33.68% 25,513 66.15% 50,108 0.17% 128 75,749 Chelan 41.94% 14,373 57.87% 19,833 0.20% 67 34,273 Clallam 51.60% 20,784 48.17% 19,401 0.23% 94 40,279 Clark 51.09% 105,058 48.76% 100,260 0.14% 298 205,616 Columbia 27.17% 592 72.28% 1,575 0.55% 12 2,179 Cowlitz 38.80% 17,439 61.07% 27,446 0.13% 57 44,942 Douglas 32.73% 5,275 67.05% 10,086 0.22% 36 16,117 Ferry 31.04% 1,060 68.76% 2,348 0.20% 7 3,415 Franklin 31.61% 7,022 68.31% 15,174 0.08% 18 22,214 Garfield 23.85% 307 75.91% 977 0.23% 3 1,287 Grant 26.83% 7,221 73.03% 19,655 0.13% 36 26,912 Grays Harbor 46.26% 13,600 53.46% 15,718 0.28% 81 29,399 Island 55.00% 23,680 44.77% 19,275 0.24% 102 43,057 Jefferson 70.62% 14,970 29.18% 6,185 0.21% 44 21,199 King 75.05% 668,692 24.73% 220,307 0.22% 1,943 890,942 Kitsap 57.51% 70,939 42.26% 52,134 0.23% 276 123,351 Kittitas 39.99% 8,318 59.84% 12,446 0.16% 34 20,798 Klickitat 41.89% 4,798 57.96% 6,639 0.16% 18 11,455 Lewis 31.29% 11,263 68.50% 24,654 0.21% 75 35,992 Lincoln 23.12% 1,423 76.63% 4,716 0.24% 15 6,154 Mason 46.74% 13,777 52.97% 15,612 0.29% 86 29,475 Okanogan 40.01% 6,644 59.78% 9,926 0.20% 34 16,605 Pacific 48.32% 5,771 51.39% 6,137 0.29% 35 11,943 Pend Oreille 29.94% 2,032 69.82% 4,739 0.24% 16 6,787 Pierce 52.69% 175,164 47.02% 156,331 0.29% 959 332,454 San Juan 72.88% 8,254 26.97% 3,055 0.15% 17 11,326 Skagit 51.57% 29,316 48.19% 27,394 0.24% 139 56,849 Skamania 42.07% 2,620 57.80% 3,599 0.13% 8 6,227 Snohomish 57.52% 184,430 42.21% 135,339 0.27% 864 320,633 Spokane 45.46% 100,719 54.34% 120,369 0.20% 443 221,531 Stevens 26.50% 6,073 73.31% 16,803 0.19% 43 22,919 Thurston 58.04% 73,189 41.69% 52,570 0.28% 347 126,106 Wahkiakum 39.26% 1,007 60.47% 1,551 0.27% 7 2,565 Walla Walla 41.38% 10,039 58.50% 14,192 0.12% 29 24,260 Whatcom 59.32% 65,950 40.51% 45,038 0.16% 182 111,170 Whitman 49.81% 7,824 49.96% 7,848 0.22% 35 15,707 Yakima 35.86% 22,541 63.93% 40,188 0.22% 136 62,865 Total 57.15% 1,741,827 42.63% 1,299,322 0.22% 6,751 3,047,900 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Grays Harbor (largest city: Aberdeen) Mason (largest city: Shelton) Pacific (largest city: Raymond) Whitman (largest city: Pullman)

By congressional district

Murray won seven of ten congressional districts, with the remaining three going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat.^[97]

District	Murray	Smiley	Representative
1st	62%	37%	Suzan DelBene
2nd	59%	41%	Rick Larsen
3rd	46%	54%	Jaime Herrera Beutler (117th Congress)
			Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (118th Congress)
4th	34%	66%	Dan Newhouse
5th	42%	58%	Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th	57%	43%	Derek Kilmer
7th	87%	13%	Pramila Jayapal
8th	51%	49%	Kim Schrier
9th	71%	29%	Adam Smith
10th	57%	43%	Marilyn Strickland

See also

• 2022 United States Senate elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Other/Refused" with 4%
4. "Someone else" with 3%
5. "Someone else" with 5%

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted for the NRSC and the Evergreen Principles PAC, which supports Smiley.
2. This poll was sponsored by American Greatness, a conservative news outlet.
3. Poll conducted for KHQ-TV.
4. Poll conducted for Citizens United, a conservative non-profit organization.
5. This poll was sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute.
6. This poll was sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund.
7. This poll was sponsored by Smiley's campaign.