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2024 United States presidential election in Colorado
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Colorado took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Colorado voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Colorado has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[1]
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Notably, despite following the nationwide trend toward the Republicans, Colorado did not see as large of a shift rightward compared to other safe blue states,[2] but Republicans did flip one seat in Colorado's congressional delegation. Harris won by 11%, only 2.5% down from Biden in 2020, significantly better than Hillary Clinton's margin of 4.9% in 2016 and exceeding Barack Obama's margins in both 2008 and 2012.
For the second presidential election in a row, Colorado voted to the left of neighboring New Mexico. This was the first time Colorado voted for a Democratic nominee who lost the popular vote since 1908. This was also only the second time the Democratic nominee won Colorado by double digits since 1964, after 2020.
Grand County was the closest Harris came to flipping a county Trump had won in 2020, in terms of margin percentage, with her only losing the county by a mere 79 votes out of the 9,884 total votes cast in the county. This was also the only state where Trump earned a smaller percentage of the vote than his first run in 2016.
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Primary elections
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Democratic primary
The Colorado Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Republican primary
The Colorado Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
14th Amendment lawsuit
The Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, a left-leaning non-profit, filed a lawsuit on behalf of four Republicans and independent voters, saying that Donald Trump is ineligible to run for president because of a section in the 14th Amendment that states "no person shall ... hold any office, civil or military, under the United States ... who, having previously taken an oath .... as an officer of the United States ... shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof". A trial on this case took place during October and November 2023.[6][7] The judge found that Trump engaged in insurrection but declined to remove Trump from the primary ballot, saying there is "scant direct evidence regarding whether the Presidency is one of the positions subject to disqualification".[8][9] On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled that Trump is disqualified from the Presidency under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment and ordered that Trump be removed from the 2024 Colorado Republican presidential primary ballot.[10][11][12]
Trump appealed this ruling to the Supreme Court of the United States, and arguments were heard in February.[13] The Colorado decision was stayed pending appeal, and Trump was included on the certified ballot, which began to be mailed to overseas voters on January 20.[14] On March 4, 2024, the Supreme Court issued a ruling unanimously reversing the Colorado Supreme Court decision, ruling that states had no authority to remove Trump from their ballots, and this was instead a power held by Congress.[15]
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General election
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Candidates
The deadline for minor party candidates to qualify for the ballot was July 1, 2024, while independents could petition for ballot access until July 11.[16][17] In September, Colorado secretary of state Jena Griswold published the following candidates as certified to appear on the general election ballot:[18]
- Kamala Harris / Tim Walz — Democratic
- Donald Trump / JD Vance — Republican
- Blake Huber / Andrea Denault — Approval Voting
- Chase Oliver / Mike ter Maat — Libertarian
- Jill Stein / Butch Ware — Green
- Randall Terry / Stephen Broden — American Constitution
- Cornel West / Melina Abdullah — Unity
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. / Nicole Shanahan — unaffiliated
Additionally, the state published a list of certified write-in candidates, the deadline for which was on July 18:[19]
- Chris Garrity / Cody Ballard — unaffiliated
- Claudia De la Cruz / Karina Garcia — Socialism and Liberation
- Shiva Ayyadurai / Crystal Ellis — unaffiliated
- Peter Sonski / Lauren Onak — American Solidarity
- Bill Frankel / Steve Jenkins — unaffiliated
- Brian Anthony Perry / Mark Sbani — Democratic
Predictions
Polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Results
By county
County that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
Harris and Trump each won four of eight congressional districts.[51][user-generated source]
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Analysis
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A fast-growing Mountain West state that was formerly Republican leaning, no Republican has won Colorado by double digits at the presidential level since Ronald Reagan in his 1984 landslide re-election victory. Colorado was consistently competitive at the presidential level from the late 1980s going through the 2010s, including Hillary Clinton winning the state by 5% in 2016. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden carried the state by 13.5%, becoming the first presidential candidate to win Colorado by a double-digit margin since Reagan. The last Republican to win the Centennial State's electoral votes was George W. Bush in his 2004 re-election victory, which he won by a margin of 4.7%. Today, Colorado is a blue state,[52] with Democrats winning the state in every presidential election starting in 2008, occupying every statewide office since 2023, and holding comfortable majorities in its state legislature.
Trump flipped Pueblo County, which he had won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Nonetheless, he became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Chaffee or Garfield Counties since William Howard Taft in 1908. Despite the state and the nation swinging right as a whole, several large Colorado counties defied national trends and shifted left, including the West Denver suburban counties of Jefferson, Broomfield, and Douglas. Outside of Denver, other large Front Range counties also shifted left, such as Larimer County, home of the city of Fort Collins; and El Paso County, home of Colorado Springs. Harris won the highest percentage of the vote in El Paso County since Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 victory and was also the first Democratic presidential candidate to lose the county by only single digits since 1964. This is the first time since 2000 that Colorado voted for the popular vote loser, and the first time since 1908 that it voted for a Democrat that lost the popular vote. This is also the first time since 1996 that Colorado backed the loser of both the electoral vote and the overall popular vote. Additionally, Trump won 43.1% of the vote in Colorado, an improvement from his 41.9% share of the statewide vote in 2020, but he still underperformed his 2016 results, in which he received 43.2% of the vote. This made Colorado the only state in the nation in which Trump's 2016 run was the best statewide performance out of his three runs in terms of vote share.
Trump also became the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1940 and 1944 to win multiple elections without carrying Colorado, and the first Republican to do so since William McKinley in 1896 and 1900.
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See also
Notes
- Poll sponsored by ProgressNow Colorado
- Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- Poll sponsored by the Colorado Polling Institute
References
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