Timeline of the far future

Several terms redirect here. For other uses, see List of numbers and List of years.

While the future cannot be predicted with certainty, present understanding in various scientific fields allows for the prediction of some far-future events, if only in the broadest outline.^[1][2][3][4] These fields include astrophysics, which studies how planets and stars form, interact, and die; particle physics, which has revealed how matter behaves at the smallest scales; evolutionary biology, which studies how life evolves over time; plate tectonics, which shows how continents shift over millennia; and sociology, which examines how human societies and cultures evolve.

Artist's concept of the Earth 5–7.5 billion years from now, when the Sun has become a red giant

These timelines begin at the start of the 4th millennium in 3001 CE, and continue until the furthest and most remote reaches of future time. They include alternative future events that address unresolved scientific questions, such as whether humans will become extinct, whether the Earth survives when the Sun expands to become a red giant and whether proton decay will be the eventual end of all matter in the Universe.

Keys

	Astronomy and astrophysics
	Geology and planetary science
	Biology
	Particle physics
	Mathematics
	Technology and culture

Earth, the Solar System, and the universe

See also: Formation and evolution of the Solar System and List of future astronomical events

All projections of the future of Earth, the Solar System, and the universe must account for the second law of thermodynamics, which states that entropy, or a loss of the energy available to do work, must rise over time.^[5] Stars will eventually exhaust their supply of hydrogen fuel via fusion and burn out. The Sun will likely expand sufficiently to overwhelm most of the inner planets (Mercury, Venus, possibly Earth), but not the giant planets, including Jupiter and Saturn. Afterwards, the Sun would be reduced to the size of a white dwarf, and the outer planets and their moons would continue orbiting this diminutive solar remnant. This future situation may be similar to the white dwarf star MOA-2010-BLG-477L and the Jupiter-sized exoplanet orbiting it.^[6][7][8]

Long after the death of the solar system, physicists expect that matter itself will eventually disintegrate under the influence of radioactive decay, as even the most stable materials break apart into subatomic particles.^[9] Current data suggests that the universe has a flat geometry (or very close to flat), and thus will not collapse in on itself after a finite time.^[10] This infinite future could allow for the occurrence of even massively improbable events, such as the formation of Boltzmann brains.^[11]

	Years from now	Event
	1,000	Due to the lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, the average length of a solar day will be 1⁄30 SI second longer than it is today. To compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of a day multiple times during each month, or one or more consecutive leap seconds will have to be added at the end of some or all months.[12]
	1,100	As Earth's poles precess, Gamma Cephei replaces Polaris as the northern pole star.[13]
	10,000	If a failure of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin "ice plug" in the next few centuries were to endanger the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, it would take up to this long to melt completely. Sea levels would rise 3 to 4 metres.[14] One of the potential long-term effects of global warming, this is separate from the shorter-term threat to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.
	10,000 – 1 million[note 1]	The red supergiant stars Betelgeuse and Antares will likely have exploded as supernovae. For a few months, the explosions should be easily visible on Earth in daylight.[15][16][17][18][19]
	11,700	As Earth's poles precess, Vega, the fifth-brightest star in the sky, becomes the northern pole star.[20] Although Earth cycles through many different naked eye northern pole stars, Vega is the brightest.
	11,000–15,000	By this point, halfway through Earth's precessional cycle, Earth's axial tilt will be mirrored, causing summer and winter to occur on opposite sides of Earth's orbit. This means that the seasons in the Southern Hemisphere will be less extreme than they are today, as it will be facing away from the Sun at Earth's perihelion and towards the Sun at aphelion, while the seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, which experiences more pronounced seasonal variation due to a higher percentage of land, will be more extreme.[21]
	15,000	According to the Sahara pump theory, the oscillating tilt of Earth's poles will move the North African Monsoon far enough north to change the climate of the Sahara back into a tropical one such as it had 5,000–10,000 years ago.[22][23]
	17,000[note 1]	The best-guess recurrence rate for a "civilization-threatening" supervolcanic eruption large enough to eject one teratonne (one trillion tonnes) of pyroclastic material.[24][25]
	25,000	Mars' northern polar ice cap could recede as Mars reaches a warming peak of the northern hemisphere during the c. 50,000-year perihelion precession aspect of its Milankovitch cycle.[26][27]
	36,000	The small red dwarf Ross 248 will pass within 3.024 light-years of Earth, becoming the closest star to the Sun.[28] It will recede after about 8,000 years, making first Alpha Centauri (again) and then Gliese 445 the nearest stars[28] (see timeline).
	50,000	According to Berger and Loutre (2002), the current interglacial period will end,[29] sending the Earth back into a glacial period of the current ice age, regardless of the effects of anthropogenic global warming. However, according to more recent studies in 2016, anthropogenic climate change, if left unchecked, may delay this otherwise expected glacial period by as much as an additional 50,000 years, potentially skipping it entirely.[30] Niagara Falls will have eroded the remaining 32 km to Lake Erie, and will therefore cease to exist.[31] The many glacial lakes of the Canadian Shield will have been erased by post-glacial rebound and erosion.[32]
	50,000	Due to lunar tides decelerating the Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one SI second longer than it is today. In order to compensate, either a leap second will have to be added to the end of every day, or the length of the day will have to be officially lengthened by one SI second.[12]
	100,000	The proper motion of stars across the celestial sphere, which results from their movement through the Milky Way, renders many of the constellations unrecognizable.[33]
	100,000[note 1]	The red hypergiant star VY Canis Majoris will likely have exploded in a supernova.[34]
	100,000	Native North American earthworms, such as Megascolecidae, will have naturally spread north through the United States Upper Midwest to the Canada–US border, recovering from the Laurentide Ice Sheet glaciation (38°N to 49°N), assuming a migration rate of 10 metres per year, and that a possible renewed glaciation by this time has not prevented this.[35] (However, humans have already introduced non-native invasive earthworms of North America on a much shorter timescale, causing a shock to the regional ecosystem.)
	100,000–10 million[note 1]	Cupid and Belinda, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided.[36]
	> 100,000	As one of the long-term effects of global warming, 10% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide will still remain in a stabilized atmosphere.[37]
	250,000	Kamaʻehuakanaloa (formerly Lōʻihi), the youngest volcano in the Hawaiian–Emperor seamount chain, will rise above the surface of the ocean and become a new volcanic island.[38]
	c. 300,000[note 1]	At some point in the next few hundred thousand years, the Wolf–Rayet star WR 104 may explode in a supernova. There is a small chance WR 104 is spinning fast enough to produce a gamma-ray burst, and an even smaller chance that such a GRB could pose a threat to life on Earth.[39][40]
	500,000[note 1]	Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid of roughly 1 km in diameter, assuming that it is not averted.[41]
	500,000	The rugged terrain of Badlands National Park in South Dakota will have eroded completely.[42]
	1 million	Meteor Crater, a large impact crater in Arizona considered the "freshest" of its kind, will have worn away.[43]
	1 million[note 1]	Desdemona and Cressida, moons of Uranus, will likely have collided.[44]
	1.29 ± 0.04 million	The star Gliese 710 will pass as close as 0.051 parsecs—0.1663 light-years (10,520 astronomical units)[45]—to the Sun before moving away. This will gravitationally perturb members of the Oort cloud, a halo of icy bodies orbiting at the edge of the Solar System, thereafter raising the likelihood of a cometary impact in the inner Solar System.[46]
	2 million	The estimated time for the full recovery of coral reef ecosystems from human-caused ocean acidification if such acidification goes unchecked; the recovery of marine ecosystems after the acidification event that occurred about 65 million years ago took a similar length of time.[47]
	2 million+	The Grand Canyon will erode further, deepening slightly, but principally widening into a broad valley surrounding the Colorado River.[48]
	2.7 million	The average orbital half-life of current centaurs, that are unstable because of gravitational interaction of the several outer planets.[49] See predictions for notable centaurs.
	3 million	Due to tidal deceleration gradually slowing Earth's rotation, a day on Earth is expected to be one minute longer than it is today.[12]
	10 million	The Red Sea will flood the widening East African Rift valley, causing a new ocean basin to divide the continent of Africa[50] and the African Plate into the newly formed Nubian Plate and the Somali Plate. The Indian Plate will advance into Tibet by 180 km (110 mi). Nepali territory, whose boundaries are defined by the Himalayan peaks and on the plains of India, will cease to exist.[51]
	10 million	The estimated time for full recovery of biodiversity after a potential Holocene extinction, if it were on the scale of the five previous major extinction events.[52] Even without a mass extinction, by this time most current species will have disappeared through the background extinction rate, with many clades gradually evolving into new forms.[53][54]
	50 million	Maximum estimated time before the moon Phobos collides with Mars.[55]
	50 million	According to Christopher Scotese, the movement of the San Andreas Fault will cause the Gulf of California to flood into the Central Valley. This will form a new inland sea on the West Coast of North America, causing the current locations of Los Angeles, California and San Francisco, California to merge.[56][failed verification] The Californian coast will begin to be subducted into the Aleutian Trench.[57] Africa's collision with Eurasia will close the Mediterranean Basin and create a mountain range similar to the Himalayas.[58] The Appalachian Mountains peaks will largely wear away,[59] weathering at 5.7 Bubnoff units, although topography will actually rise as regional valleys deepen at twice this rate.[60]
	50–60 million	The Canadian Rockies will wear away to a plain, assuming a rate of 60 Bubnoff units.[61] The Southern Rockies in the United States are eroding at a somewhat slower rate.[62]
	50–400 million	The estimated time for Earth to naturally replenish its fossil fuel reserves.[63]
	80 million	The Big Island will have become the last of the current Hawaiian Islands to sink beneath the surface of the ocean, while a more recently formed chain of "new Hawaiian Islands" will then have emerged in their place.[64]
	100 million[note 1]	Earth will likely have been hit by an asteroid comparable in size to the one that triggered the K–Pg extinction 66 million years ago, assuming this is not averted.[65]
	100 million	According to the Pangaea Proxima model created by Christopher R. Scotese, a new subduction zone will open in the Atlantic Ocean and the Americas will begin to converge back toward Africa.[56][failed verification] Upper estimate for lifespan of the rings of Saturn in their current state.[66]
	110 million	The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 1%.[67]
	180 million	Due to the gradual slowing of Earth's rotation, a day on Earth will be one hour longer than it is today.[12]
	240 million	From its present position, the Solar System completes one full orbit of the Galactic Center.[68]
	250 million	According to Christopher R. Scotese, due to the northward movement of the West Coast of North America, the coast of California will collide with Alaska.[56][failed verification]
	250–350 million	All the continents on Earth may fuse into a supercontinent.[56][69] Four potential arrangements of this configuration have been dubbed Amasia, Novopangaea, Pangaea Proxima, and Aurica. This will likely result in a glacial period, lowering sea levels and increasing oxygen levels, further lowering global temperatures.[70][71]
	> 250 million	The supercontinent's formation, thanks to a combination of contientality increasing distance from the ocean, an increase in volcanic activity resulting in atmospheric CO2 at double current levels, increased interspecial competition, and a 2.5 percent increase in solar flux, is likely to trigger an extinction event comprable to the Great Dying 250 million years ago. Mammals in particular are unlikely to survive.[72][73]
	300 million	Due to a shift in the equatorial Hadley cells to roughly 40° north and south, the amount of arid land will increase by 25%.[73]
	300–600 million	The estimated time for Venus's mantle temperature to reach its maximum. Then, over a period of about 100 million years, major subduction occurs and the crust is recycled.[74]
	350 million	According to the extroversion model first developed by Paul F. Hoffman, subduction ceases in the Pacific Ocean Basin.[69][75]
	400–500 million	The supercontinent (Pangaea Ultima, Novopangaea, Amasia, or Aurica) will likely have rifted apart.[69] This will likely result in higher global temperatures, similar to the Cretaceous period.[71]
	500 million[note 1]	The estimated time until a gamma-ray burst, or massive, hyperenergetic supernova, occurs within 6,500 light-years of Earth; close enough for its rays to affect Earth's ozone layer and potentially trigger a mass extinction, assuming the hypothesis is correct that a previous such explosion triggered the Ordovician–Silurian extinction event. However, the supernova would have to be precisely oriented relative to Earth to have such effect.[76]
	600 million	Tidal acceleration moves the Moon far enough from Earth that total solar eclipses are no longer possible.[77]
	500–600 million	The Sun's increasing luminosity begins to disrupt the carbonate–silicate cycle; higher luminosity increases weathering of surface rocks, which traps carbon dioxide in the ground as carbonate. As water evaporates from the Earth's surface, rocks harden, causing plate tectonics to slow and eventually stop once the oceans evaporate completely. With less volcanism to recycle carbon into the Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide levels begin to fall.[78] By this time, carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C3 photosynthesis is no longer possible. All plants that use C3 photosynthesis (≈99 percent of present-day species) will die.[79] The extinction of C3 plant life is likely to be a long-term decline rather than a sharp drop. It is likely that plant groups will die one by one well before the critical carbon dioxide level is reached. The first plants to disappear will be C3 herbaceous plants, followed by deciduous forests, evergreen broad-leaf forests and finally evergreen conifers.[73]
	500–800 million	As Earth begins to warm and carbon dioxide levels fall, plants—and, by extension, animals—could survive longer by evolving other strategies such as requiring less carbon dioxide for photosynthetic processes, becoming carnivorous, adapting to desiccation, or associating with fungi. These adaptations are likely to appear near the beginning of the moist greenhouse.[73] The decrease in plant life will result in less oxygen in the atmosphere, allowing for more DNA-damaging ultraviolet radiation to reach the surface. The rising temperatures will increase chemical reactions in the atmosphere, further lowering oxygen levels. Plant and animal communities become increasingly sparse and isolated as the Earth becomes more barren. Flying animals would be better off because of their ability to travel large distances looking for cooler temperatures.[80] Many animals may be driven to the poles or possibly underground. These creatures would become active during the polar night and aestivate during the polar day due to the intense heat and radiation. Much of the land would become a barren desert, and plants and animals would primarily be found in the oceans.[80]
	500–800 million	As pointed out by Peter Ward and Donald Brownlee in their book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, according to NASA Ames scientist Kevin Zahnle, this is the earliest time for plate tectonics to eventually stop, due to the gradual cooling of the Earth's core, which could potentially turn the Earth back into a waterworld. This would, in turn, likely cause the extinction of animal life on Earth.[80]
	800–900 million	Carbon dioxide levels will fall to the point at which C4 photosynthesis is no longer possible.[79] Without plant life to recycle oxygen in the atmosphere, free oxygen and the ozone layer will disappear from the atmosphere allowing for intense levels of deadly UV light to reach the surface. Animals in food chains that were dependent on live plants will disappear shortly afterward.[73] At most, animal life could survive about 3 to 100 million years after plant life dies out. Just like plants, the extinction of animals will likely coincide with the loss of plants. It will start with large animals, then smaller animals and flying creatures, then amphibians, followed by reptiles, and finally, invertebrates.[78] In the book The Life and Death of Planet Earth, authors Peter D. Ward and Donald Brownlee state that some animal life may be able to survive in the oceans. Eventually, however, all multicellular life will die out.[81] The first sea animals to go extinct will be large fish, followed by small fish, and then finally, invertebrates.[78] The last animals to go extinct will be animals that do not depend on living plants, such as termites, or those near hydrothermal vents, such as worms of the genus Riftia.[73] The only life left on the Earth after this will be single-celled organisms.
	1 billion[note 2]	27% of the ocean's mass will have been subducted into the mantle. If this were to continue uninterrupted, it would reach an equilibrium where 65% of present-day surface water would be subducted.[82]
	1 billion	By this point, the Sagittarius Dwarf Spheroidal Galaxy will have been completely consumed by the Milky Way.[83]
	1.1 billion	The Sun's luminosity will have increased by 10%, causing Earth's surface temperatures to reach an average of around 320 K (47 °C; 116 °F). The atmosphere will become a "moist greenhouse", resulting in a runaway evaporation of the oceans.[78][84] This would cause plate tectonics to stop completely, if not already stopped before this time.[85] Pockets of water may still be present at the poles, allowing abodes for simple life.[86][87]
	1.2 billion	High estimate until all plant life dies out, assuming some form of photosynthesis is possible despite extremely low carbon dioxide levels. If this is possible, rising temperatures will make any animal life unsustainable from this point on.[88]