2–0 lead is the worst lead

"2–0 lead is the worst lead" is a cliché^[1] used in sporting contests,^[2][3] to describe the situation in which one team is leading by a score of 2–0, causing them to become complacent.^[4] The phrase is most common in association football, where it is sometimes applied only to the scoreline at half-time. It is sometimes also encountered in other sports where 2–0 is a moderately large lead, such as ice hockey.

Concept

The underlying concept is that, a team which is leading 2–0 will be complacent^[5] and have a 'false sense of security' in their lead.^[6] If the trailing team then scores to make it 2–1, the leading team can panic and concede further, resulting in a draw, or even a win for the other team. In contrast, a team which is leading 1–0 will tend to concentrate and play with intensity to protect or extend their narrow lead, whilst teams leading by three or more goals have a sufficiently large buffer that comebacks are unlikely.

The cliché may be invoked by coaches to encourage their players to maintain effort levels after obtaining a two-goal lead.^[7] It can also be used in broadcasting, such as by a commentator or studio pundit, to suggest that the final result is still in doubt, thereby maintaining audience interest in a game.

There is little evidence that 2–0 is the worst lead in practice. In association football, a team leading 2–0 at half-time only goes on to lose the game in about 2% of cases.^[8] A 2017 analysis by Sky Sports showed that between August 1992 and July 2017, there had been 2,766 occasions in the English Premier League where a team established two-goal lead. Of these matches, 2,481 resulted in victories for the leading team, 212 ended in draws, and 73 in defeats.^[9] In ice hockey, statistics show that if a team builds a two-goal advantage, they go on to win the game in the majority of instances, and that a one-goal lead is far more dangerous. ^[10] As a result, the cliché is often used in full knowledge that 2–0 is not in fact the worst possible lead.^[11][12]

Examples of usage

The cliché was popularized by Czech football coach and television commentator Josef Csaplár in the Czech football community. His use of the term suggested that a 2–0 half-time lead could only end in a defeat and the cliché is known in the Czech Republic as Csaplár's trap (Czech: Csaplárova past).^[13][14]

In Serbia, the cliché is known for being used by manager and former player Milan Živadinović.^[15]

The cliché was also used by Australian former player and TV broadcaster Johnny Warren.^[16]

In Poland, the cliché 2-0 to niebezpieczny wynik (Polish: 2-0 is a dangerous result) has been popularized by coach Czesław Michniewicz since at least 2005. In 2022 media used this cliché in connection to a game that Poland national football team, managed by Michniewicz, failed to win despite leading 2–0 against Netherlands national football team.^[17]

Former football manager Jürgen Klopp has once stated the danger behind a 2-0 lead after Liverpool two-goal win against Inter Milan in the first leg of the 2022 Champions League, explaining that teams may become complacent which allows the opposition a chance to comeback.

Television pundit and former England international footballer Gary Lineker questioned the cliché's veracity during a 2016 match between Bournemouth and Liverpool while the latter were 2–0 ahead.^[18] On that occasion, Liverpool did surrender both a 2–0 and 3–1 lead to lose 4–3.^[19]