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2010 Florida gubernatorial election
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
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The 2010 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2010. Republican-turned-independent incumbent Governor Charlie Crist chose not to run for a second term and he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate seat vacated by Mel Martínez.[2] This resulted in an open race for Governor of Florida in which Republican Rick Scott narrowly defeated Democrat Alex Sink.
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Despite mixed to unfavorable ratings, Rick Scott benefited greatly from the midterm GOP wave in which Republicans made significant gains across the country.[3] Scott was one of six Republican gubernatorial pick-ups nationwide (counting Crist as an independent).
The tight and highly contentious election was one of the standout races in 2010. Despite not professing direct allegiance to the movement,[4] Scott benefited from support and endorsement by Tea Party activists,[3][5] an influential conservative voting bloc of the 2010 midterms. Furthermore, Scott ran aggressively against the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), and exit polls indicated considerable support for that position.[6] This election was the first Florida gubernatorial election since 1982 where the winner of the gubernatorial election was of the same party as the winner of the concurrent United States Senate election.
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Primary Elections
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Democratic
Candidates
- Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer of Florida
- Brian Moore, political activist, 2008 Socialist Party USA Nominee for President of the United States
Before the 2010 Democratic primary, the Florida Democratic Party faced a period of uncertainty. The incumbent governor, Charlie Crist, was widely expected to seek re-election but surprised many in early 2009 by announcing a run for the U.S. Senate instead. This created a rare open seat for governor, sparking speculation among Florida Democrats about who would enter the race.[7]
Alex Sink, then serving as the Chief Financial Officer of Florida, was the only Democrat holding statewide elected office at the time. As a former Bank of America executive, Sink built a reputation as a competent and moderate technocrat. Her husband, Bill McBride, was the Democrat nominee in the 2002 Florida gubernatorial election, but lost to incumbent Governor Jeb Bush. Initially, there were doubts about whether she would run, as she remained noncommittal throughout the first half of 2009.[8] However, in May 2009, she officially announced her candidacy and instantly became the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination.
Sink benefited from a largely uncontested path to the nomination. Her only opponent was Brian Moore, a long-shot candidate who previously ran for president in 2008 under the Socialist Party USA banner. Moore qualified for the ballot as a Democrat but did not raise significant funds or gain media traction.[9] On primary day, Sink won the Democratic nomination with nearly 77% of the vote.
Because of this advantage, Sink was able to conserve resources and begin preparing for the general election months in advance. She toured the state, built a coalition of moderate Democrats and independents, and began framing her likely Republican opponent (initially expected to be Attorney General Bill McCollum) as out of touch with mainstream voters. However, political newcomer Rick Scott's upset victory surprised her team.
Republican
In May 2009, incumbent governor Charlie Crist announced he would not run for re-election, and instead would run for U.S. Senate.[11] The move immediately turned the race competitive, as GOP-hopefuls lined up to run for the open seat. Former congressman and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum emerged as the early favorite and had strong backing from the state Republican establishment. In 2000, McCollum was the Republican nominee for Senate, but lost. He ran for the nomination again in 2004 but lost. His run for governor would be his third attempt at a major statewide campaign. McCollum’s early entry allowed him to consolidate endorsements and donor support, and for most of 2009 and early 2010, he campaigned without a serious challenger. However, just before the deadline, Rick Scott, a multimillionaire businessman and former CEO of the Columbia/HCA hospital chain, jumped into the race.[12]
From the outset, Scott launched a media blitz and invested more than $23 million of his own money in just the primary. In total, Scott spent over $50 million in the primary alone. His messaging focused on job creation, cutting taxes, immigration enforcement, and repealing Obamacare. He branded himself as a “conservative outsider,” tapping into rising Tea Party sentiment and widespread voter frustration with government insiders. His “Let’s Get to Work” plan promised to create 700,000 jobs in seven years.[13]
McCollum was initially caught off-guard by Scott’s entry and struggled to keep up in fundraising and advertising. McCollum tried to reframe the race as a referendum on Scott’s past, especially his role in the Columbia/HCA Medicare fraud case. McCollum’s campaign and allied groups ran ads labeling Scott as untrustworthy. One McCollum ad called Scott “the king of Medicare fraud,” a claim Scott strongly rejected, stating he was never personally charged with wrongdoing.[14]
The race turned deeply negative on both sides, with mutual accusations of lying, criminal behavior, and ideological extremism. McCollum also received criticism for hiring a controversial anti-immigration consultant, which alienated some moderate Republicans and Latino voters. Scott took legal action to avoid Florida’s campaign finance “millionaire’s matching funds” provision, which would have granted McCollum more public funding.[15][12] Televised debates late in the campaign were bitter and personal, with Scott refusing to apologize for his business record and McCollum attacking Scott’s refusal to release full records from his tenure at Columbia/HCA.
Scott led some early polls, but McCollum re-took the lead in polls just before primary day. Scott benefited in absentee voting, while McCollum expected to make up the difference based on turnout. On primary day, Scott won the nomination with just over 46% of the vote. The dejected McCollum team reluctantly conceded after midnight.[16] Scott's victory exposed rifts within the Republican Party between establishment conservatives and the insurgent Tea Party movement. The primary left Scott with high unfavorable ratings and a reputation for aggressive, negative campaigning, but it also gave him name recognition, media dominance, and momentum heading into the general election.
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General Election
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Candidates
Republican
- Rick Scott, healthcare executive
Democratic
- Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer of Florida
Independence Party of Florida
- Peter L. Allen, electrical inspector
No party affiliation
- Michael E. Arth, policy analyst and urban designer who entered the race as a Democrat in June 2009 and later switched to no party affiliation in June 2010
- Farid Khavari, economist, author, and small business owner
- Daniel Imperato[17]
- Calvin Clarence "C.C." Reed
Campaign
The race was dominated by the two major party candidates and spending on their behalf. By the October 25, 2010, Tampa debate between Scott and Sink, Scott had spent $60 million of his own money on the campaign compared to Sink's $28 million.[18] Total campaign expenditure for the race exceeded $100 million, far exceeding any previous spending for a governor's race in Florida.[19] Scott spent $78 million of his personal wealth in the race.[20] Sink made an issue of Scott's connections to Columbia/HCA, a Medicare billing fraud scandal.[3]
One of the turning points in the campaign came during the debate. During a commercial break, Sink's make-up artist delivered a text message on her cell phone to Sink, in direct violation of the debate rules. The rules infraction was immediately pointed out by Scott and the debate moderators.[21] Sink's team was accused of cheating during the debate, and the aide who delivered the message was fired from the campaign the next morning. Afterwards, media and observers were very critical of the gaffe.
Predictions
Polling
Democratic primary
List of Democratic primary polling numbers
Republican primary
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List of Republican primary polling numbers
General election
Hypothetical Polls
Bill McCollum (R) vs. Alex Sink (D) vs. Bud Chiles (I)
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Results
The 2010 governor's race was one of Florida's closest, decided by just over 60,000 votes. Unlike the concurrent Senate race, the governor's race remained in doubt late into the night. When polls closed, Scott had a lead, but as the night progressed, the margin narrowed. The next day, with over 99% of precincts reporting, Scott maintained about a 1% lead in the raw vote.[3] Despite a small number of still-uncounted ballots from Palm Beach County, Sink's chances of winning were negligible, as Scott was still ahead by over 50,000 – much more than the 3,000 uncounted ballots, and more importantly, still above the threshold of 0.5% to trigger a mandatory recount.[3] Sink conceded the day after the election.
Exit polls showed that Scott won among independents and the two candidates split the Hispanic vote.[3]
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Franklin (largest city: Eastpoint)
- Liberty (largest city: Bristol)
- Hillsborough (largest municipality: Tampa)
- Osceola (largest municipality: Kissimmee)
- Pinellas (largest municipality: St. Petersburg)
- St. Lucie (largest city: Port St. Lucie)
- Orange (Largest city: Orlando)
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See also
Notes
References
External links
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