2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

Not to be confused with 2024 Massachusetts Senate election.

The 2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts took place on November 5, 2024. Democratic incumbent Senator Elizabeth Warren successfully ran for a third term, securing 59.81% of the vote.^[1] Warren was challenged by Republican attorney John Deaton. Primary elections took place on September 3, 2024.^[2]

2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →

Nominee Elizabeth Warren John Deaton Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,041,668 1,365,440 Percentage 59.81% 40.00%

County results Municipality results Congressional district results Precinct results Warren:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Deaton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      No votes

U.S. senator before election Elizabeth Warren Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren Democratic

This election marked the first time that Elizabeth Warren had lost Bristol County while running for the office. Warren underperformed Kamala Harris, who won the state by 25.2 points in the concurrent presidential election, as well as every county.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Elizabeth Warren, incumbent U.S. senator (2013–present)^[3]

Declined

• Jake Auchincloss, U.S. representative for Massachusetts's 4th congressional district (2021–present)^[4] (ran for re-election)^[5]
• Seth Moulton, U.S. representative for Massachusetts's 6th congressional district (2015–present)^[5] (ran for re-election)^[5]
• Ayanna Pressley, U.S. representative for Massachusetts's 7th congressional district (2019–present)^[6] (endorsed Warren, ran for re-election)^[7][5]
• Michelle Wu, mayor of Boston (2021–present)^[6] (endorsed Warren)^[7]

Endorsements

Elizabeth Warren

U.S. senators

• Ed Markey, Massachusetts (2013–present)^[7]

U.S. representatives

• Gabby Giffords, AZ-08 (2007–2012)^[8]
• Ayanna Pressley, MA-07 (2019–present)^[7]

State officials

• Maura Healey, Governor of Massachusetts (2023–present)^[9]

Local officials

• Michelle Wu, mayor of Boston (2021–present)^[7]

Organizations

• EMILY's List^[10]
• Feminist Majority PAC^[11]
• Giffords^[8]
• Harvard College Democrats^[12]
• Humane Society Legislative Fund^[13]
• J Street PAC^[14]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs^[15]
• League of Conservation Voters^[16]
• National Women's Political Caucus^[17]
• Natural Resources Defense Council^[18]
• Planned Parenthood Action Fund^[19]
• Population Connection Action Fund^[20]
• Progressive Change Campaign Committee^[21]

Labor unions

• Association of Flight Attendants^[22]
• United Farm Workers^[23]

Political parties

• Working Families Party^[24]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Elizabeth Warren (D)	$18,486,081	$24,658,143	$4,920,625
Source: Federal Election Commission[25]

Results

Democratic primary results^[26]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Elizabeth Warren (incumbent)	562,709	98.58%
	Write-in		8,078	1.42%
Total votes			570,787	100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• John Deaton, attorney^[27]

Eliminated in primary

• Robert Antonellis, nutrition software company owner^[28] and self-professed conspiracy theorist^[29]
• Ian Cain, president of the Quincy City Council^[30]

Declined

• Chris Doughty, manufacturing executive and candidate for governor in 2022^[31]

Endorsements

Ian Cain

Governors

• Jane Swift, former Governor of Massachusetts (2001–2003)^[32]

Local Officials

• Thomas Koch, Mayor of Quincy (2008–present)^[33]

John Deaton

Executive Branch officials

• Anthony Scaramucci, former White House Director of Communications (2017)^[34]

Statewide officials

• Karyn Polito, former Lieutenant Governor of Massachusetts (2015–2023)^[34]

Individuals

• Mark Cuban, entrepreneur (Independent)^[35]

Organizations

• Massachusetts College Republicans^[36]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Robert Antonellis (R)	$43,352[a]	$37,250	$9,667
Ian Cain (R)	$361,115	$312,722	$48,393
John Deaton (R)	$1,690,411[b]	$715,642	$974,769
Source: Federal Election Commission[25]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Robert Antonellis	Ian Cain	John Deaton	Other	Undecided
YouGov[37][A]	May 17–30, 2024	292 (A)	± 4.4%	19%	5%	15%	25%[d]	36%
Suffolk University[38][B]	April 16–20, 2024	99(LV)	± 4.4%	4%	2%	4%	1%[e]	89%

Results

Results by municipality:

  Deaton—90–100%

  Deaton—80–90%

  Deaton—70–80%

  Deaton—60–70%

  Deaton—50–60%

  Antonellis—50–60%

  Antonellis—40–50%

  Cain—40–50%

  No Data/Vote

Republican primary results^[26]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	John Deaton	136,773	64.51%
	Republican	Robert Antonellis	54,940	25.91%
	Republican	Ian Cain	19,374	9.14%
	Write-in		924	0.44%
Total votes			212,011	100.0%

Workers Party primary

Candidates

Withdrawn

• Brandon Griffin^[39][40]

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declined

• Louis Marino, former Chelmsford town meeting representative^[41]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[42]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[43]	Solid D	November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[44]	Safe D	November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[45]	Safe D	June 8, 2024
Elections Daily[46]	Safe D	May 4, 2023
CNalysis[47]	Solid D	November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[48]	Solid D	August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[49]	Safe D	October 23, 2024
538[50]	Solid D	October 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

John Deaton (R)

Statewide officials

• Bill Weld, former Governor of Massachusetts (1991–1997)^[51]

Notable Individuals

• Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX^[52]
• Mark Cuban, entrepreneur, Dallas Mavericks owner, philanthropist (Independent)^[35][53][54]
• Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple^[55]
• Chris Larsen, co-founder of Ripple (Democrat)^[56]

Newspapers

• Boston Herald^[57]

Organizations

• Log Cabin Republicans^[58]
• New England Police Benevolent Association nonprofit^[59]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Elizabeth Warren (D)	John Deaton (R)	Undecided [f]	Margin
538[60]	through November 2, 2024	November 3, 2024	57.0%	34.8%	8.2%	Warren +22.2%
RealClearPolitics[61]	September 12 - October 26, 2024	November 3, 2024	56.5%	34.3%	9.2%	Warren +22.2%
270toWin[62]	October 8 - November 3, 2024	November 3, 2024	57.5%	34.8%	7.7%	Warren +22.7%
TheHill/DDHQ[63]	through November 2, 2024	November 3, 2024	58.4%	36.1%	5.5%	Warren +22.3%
Average			57.4%	35.0%	7.6%	Warren+22.4%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	John Deaton (R)	Other	Undecided
University of New Hampshire[64]	October 29 – November 2, 2024	744 (LV)	± 3.6%	60%	37%	–	3%
MassINC Polling Group[65]	October 29 – November 1, 2024	582 (LV)	± 4.9%	55%	33%	8%[g]	4%
ActiVote[66]	October 2–30, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	63%	37%	–	–
Emerson College[67][C]	October 24–26, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	56%	36%	1%[h]	7%
UMass Amherst/YouGov/WCVB[68]	October 3–10, 2024	700 (A)	± 4.8%	56%	34%	3%[i]	7%
Suffolk University[69][D]	October 2–6, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	59%	35%	–	6%
Opinion Diagnostics (R)[70][E]	September 19–21, 2024	638 (LV)	–	53%	32%	–	15%
MassINC Polling Group[71][F]	September 12–18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 4.1%	56%	35%	3%[j]	7%
University of New Hampshire[72]	September 12–16, 2024	564 (LV)	± 4.1%	58%	32%	7%[k]	3%
YouGov[73][A]	May 17–30, 2023	700 (A)	± 4.4%	47%	24%	8%[l]	21%

Hypothetical polling

Elizabeth Warren vs. Robert Antonellis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Robert Antonellis (R)	Other/Undecided
YouGov[73][A]	May 17–30, 2023	700 (A)	± 4.4%	50%	23%	27%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Charlie Baker

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Charlie Baker (R)	Undecided
Fiscal Alliance Foundation[74]	May 6–7, 2023	750 (LV)	± 3.6%	34%	49%	17%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Ian Cain

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Ian Cain (R)	Other/Undecided
YouGov[73][A]	May 17–30, 2023	700 (A)	± 4.4%	48%	24%	28%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Jonathan Kraft

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Johnathan Kraft (R)	Undecided
Suffolk University[75]	February 2–5, 2023	1000 (LV)	± 3.1%	56%	33%	11%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Aaron Packard

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Aaron Packard (R)	Other/Undecided
YouGov[73][A]	May 17–30, 2023	700 (A)	± 4.4%	48%	23%	29%

Elizabeth Warren vs. Karyn Polito

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[c]	Margin of error	Elizabeth Warren (D)	Karyn Polito (R)	Undecided
Fiscal Alliance Foundation[76]	July 21–22, 2023	750 (LV)	± 3.6%	41%	29%	30%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Massachusetts^[77]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Elizabeth Warren (incumbent)	2,041,668	59.81%	−0.53
	Republican	John Deaton	1,365,440	40.00%	+3.83
	Write-in		6,221	0.18%	+0.08
Total votes			3,413,329	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Shift by county

Trend by county

Legend

•   Republican — >15%
•   Republican — +12.5−15%
•   Republican — +10−12.5%
•   Republican — +7.5−10%
•   Republican — +5−7.5%
•   Republican — +2.5−5%
•   Republican — +0−2.5%
•   Democratic — +0−2.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5−5%
•   Democratic — +5−7.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +10−12.5%
•   Democratic — +12.5−15%
    Democratic—+>15%

By county

By county

County Elizabeth Warren Democratic John Deaton Republican All others # % # % # % Barnstable 81,395 55.26 65,709 44.61 183 0.12 Berkshire 46,803 70.01 19,984 29.89 65 0.1 Bristol 134,451 49.55 136,530 50.32 352 0.13 Dukes 8,792 72.89 3,260 27.03 10 0.08 Essex 228,303 57.83 165,907 42.03 568 0.14 Franklin 27,921 66.93 13,737 32.93 57 0.14 Hampden 110,375 53.99 93,677 45.83 370 0.18 Hampshire 58,099 69.29 25,644 30.58 108 0.13 Middlesex 532,646 66.54 266,265 33.27 1,523 0.19 Nantucket 4,513 64.47 2,479 35.41 8 0.11 Norfolk 225,378 59.25 154,068 40.51 920 0.24 Plymouth 147,813 49.86 148,292 50.02 341 0.12 Suffolk 219,769 75.41 70,676 24.25 1,006 0.35 Worcester 215,410 51.86 199,212 47.96 710 0.17 Totals 2,041,668 59.81 1,365,440 40.0 6,221 0.18 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Bristol (largest municipality: New Bedford)

By congressional district

Warren won all nine congressional districts.^[78]

District	Warren	Deaton	Representative
1st	56%	44%	Richard Neal
2nd	59%	41%	Jim McGovern
3rd	58%	42%	Lori Trahan
4th	56%	44%	Jake Auchincloss
5th	70%	30%	Katherine Clark
6th	57%	43%	Seth Moulton
7th	82%	18%	Ayanna Pressley
8th	60%	40%	Stephen Lynch
9th	51%	49%	Bill Keating

Notes

1. $24,296 of this total was self-funded by Antonellis
2. $1,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Deaton
3. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
4. Aaron Packard with 9%; "Other" with 16%
5. Aaron Packard with 1%
6. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
7. "Another candidate" with 3%, "Would not vote for Senate" with 3%, "Prefer not to say" with 2%
8. "Someone else" with 1%
9. "Other" with 3%
10. "Another candidate" with 1%, "Wouldn't Vote" with 1%, "Prefer not to say" with 1%
11. "Another candidate" with 7%
12. "Would not vote" with 8%

Partisan clients

1. Poll commissioned by the University of Massachusetts Amherst and WCVB-TV
2. Poll commissioned by The Boston Globe
3. Poll sponsored by WHDH
4. Poll sponsored by The Boston Globe
5. Poll sponsored by Deaton's campaign
6. Poll sponsored by WBUR-FM and CommonWealth Beacon