List of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles by Elon Musk

This is a list of predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles made by Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, Inc. The predictions concern Tesla's suite of advanced driver assistance system (ADAS) functions, currently marketed as Full Self-Driving (Supervised) ("FSD"), and provide estimates for when Tesla will achieve fully autonomous driving, requiring no human intervention, which SAE considers Level 5 automation. Tesla does not classify FSD according to the SAE levels of autonomy, but has acknowledged that full autonomy is "dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions".^[1]

Musk has publicly stated estimated timelines and intended capabilities of the system since at least 2013.^[2] FSD and Autopilot are classified as SAE Level 2 ADAS, as of January 2024^[update].^[1][3] A lawsuit filed in February 2023 by Tesla investors alleging that Musk committed securities fraud by making misleading statements about the development timeline of autonomous Tesla vehicles^[4] was dismissed without prejudice in September 2024; the judge ruled that Tesla's legal team successfully argued that Elon Musk's statements were "corporate puffery", i.e., vague corporate optimism.^[5]

Elon Musk's predictions for autonomous Tesla vehicles

Date	Prediction	Quote	Met	Ref.
Sep 2013	2016	"We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years."	No	[2]
Oct 2014	2015	"A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto. For sure highway travel."	AP/HW1 released Oct 2015 for highways[6]	[7][8]
Oct 2015	2018	"From a technology standpoint, Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years, maybe a bit sooner."	No	[9]
Dec 2015	2018	"We're going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years."	No	[10]
Jan 2016	2018	"Ultimately you'll be able to summon your car anywhere … your car can get to you. I think that within two years, you'll be able to summon your car from across the country. It will meet you wherever your phone is … and it will just automatically charge itself along the entire journey."	No	[11]
Jun 2016	2019	"I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. ... We're less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they'll want to see billions of miles of data."	No	[12]
Oct 2016	Dec 2017	"Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we'll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let's say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year. Without the need for a single touch, including the charger."	No	[13][14][15]
Apr 2017	Dec 2017	"November or December of this year, we should be able to go from a parking lot in California to a parking lot in New York, no controls touched at any point during the entire journey."	No	[16]
May 2017	2019	"I think [a driver will be able to sleep at the wheel in] about two years. So the real trick of it is not how do you make it work say 99.9 percent of the time, because, like, if a car crashes one in a thousand times, then you're probably still not going to be comfortable falling asleep. You shouldn't be, certainly."	No	[17][18]
Feb 2018	Aug 2018	"[Autopilot is] going to kind of be like [the progression of DeepMind's AlphaGo] for self-driving. It will feel like well this is a lame driver, lame driver. Like okay, that's a pretty good driver. Like holy cow, this driver's good. It'll be like that. I mean, timing-wise, I think we could probably do a coast-to-coast drive in three months, six months at the outside."	No	[19]
Nov 2018	2019	"You know, I think we'll get to full self-driving next year. As a generalized solution, I think. But that's a ... Like we're on track to do that next year. So I don't know. I don't think anyone else is on track to do it next year."	No	[20]
Feb 2019	Dec 2019	"I think we will be feature complete — full self-driving — this year, meaning the car will be able to find you in a parking lot, pick you up and take you all the way to your destination without an intervention, this year. I would say I am of certain of that. That is not a question mark."	No	[21]
Apr 2019	2020	"I feel very confident predicting that there will be autonomous robotaxis from Tesla next year — not in all jurisdictions because we won't have regulatory approval everywhere." "From our standpoint, if you fast forward a year, maybe a year and three months, but next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis on the road."	No	[22]
Apr 2020	2020	"[Robotaxi] functionality still looking good for this year. Regulatory approval is the big unknown."	No	[23][24]
Jul 2020	Dec 2020	"I'm extremely confident that level five - or essentially complete autonomy - will happen and I think will happen very quickly. I feel like we are very close. I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year. There are no fundamental challenges remaining. There are many small problems. And then there's the challenge of solving all those small problems and putting the whole system together."	No	[25][26]
Jan 2021	Dec 2021	"And it's now actually more -- it's more common than not for the car to have no interventions, even on a complex drive. So -- and this is -- basically I'm highly confident the car will drive itself for the reliability in excess of a human this year. This is a very big deal."	No	[27]
Apr 2022	Dec 2022	"The whole road system is made for biological neural nets and eyes. And so actually, when you think about it, in order to solve driving, we have to solve neural nets and cameras to a degree of capability that is on par with, or really exceeds humans. And I think we will achieve that this year."	No	[28]
Aug 2022	Dec 2022	"The two technologies I am focused on, trying to ideally get done before the end of the year, are getting our Starship into orbit ... and then having Tesla cars to be able to do self-driving. ... Have self-driving in wide release at least in the U.S., and ... potentially in Europe, depending on regulatory approval."	FSD beta wide release Nov 2022[a]	[31]
May 2023	Dec 2023	"I mean, it does look like [full autonomy is] gonna happen this year. ... Well, we're now at the point where the car can drive on highways and in cities with and where a human dimension is extremely rare. So I mean, just – I was able to drive for several days, just dropping a navigation pin in random locations in the Greater Austin area with no interventions. And the same in San Francisco, which is a very difficult place to drive."	No	[32]
Jul 2023	Dec 2023	"People have sort of made fun of me and perhaps quite fairly have made fun of me, my predictions about achieving full self-driving have been optimistic in the past ... I'm the boy who cried FSD, but I think we'll be better than human by the end of this year. I've been wrong in the past, I may be wrong this time."	No	[33]
Jan 2024	Dec 2024	"You know, I really think lots of car companies should be asking for [full self-driving] licenses. [...] we've had some tentative conversations, but I think they don't believe it's real quite yet. I think that that will become obvious probably this year."	No	[34]
Oct 2024	Dec 2025	"We do expect actually to start fully autonomous, unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. And obviously that's with the Model 3 and Model Y and then we expect to be in production with the CyberCab which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, well, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames ... but in 2026. So yeah, before 2027, let me put it that way."	TBD	[35]
	Dec 2026 (Cybercab)		TBD
Jan 2025	Jun 2025	"We're going to be launching unsupervised Full Self-Driving as a paid service in Austin in June."	Launched 22 June 2025 with safety monitor[36][b]	[39]
Apr 2025	Dec 2025	"The acid test is, can you go to sleep in your car and wake up in your destination and I'm confident that will be available in many cities in the US by the end of this year."	TBD	[40]
	Dec 2026	"I predict that there will be millions of Teslas operating fully autonomously in the second half of next year."	TBD	[41]
Jun 2025	Jun 28, 2025	"Tentatively, [Robotaxi will launch] June 22. We are being super paranoid about safety, so the date could shift. First Tesla that drives itself from factory end of line all the way to a customer house is June 28."	Yes[42][c]	[44]
Jun 2025	Aug 2025	"Probably within a month or two [until 3:1 or more Robotaxi to Supervisor/Teleoperator ratio]"	No	[45]
Jul 2025	Dec 2025	"I think we'll probably have autonomous ride hailing in probably half the population of the U.S. by the end of the year. That's at least our goal subject to regulatory approvals."	TBD	[46][47]
		"I think [FSD] will be available for unsupervised personal use by the end of this year in certain geographies."	TBD	[46][48]
Sep 2025	Dec 2025	“[Robotaxi] Should be no safety driver by end of year.”	TBD	[49]
Jul 2025	Dec 2026	"We haven't really thought hard about [personally owned vehicles in the robotaxi network]. We need to make sure it works when the vehicles are fully under our control. It's kind of one step at a time here. We don't want to jump the gun. As I said, we're being paranoid about safety. But I guess next year is — I'd say confidently next year. I'm not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla, Inc. fleet."	TBD	[46][50]

Notes

1. "Wide release" in November 2022 means the time in which the beta version of FSD became available to all Tesla owners in North America who had purchased the FSD package.^[29] Prior to wide release, access to FSD Beta was limited to owners who had purchased FSD and were qualified with a high driver safety score, as calculated by Tesla.^[30]
2. The safety monitor rides in the front passenger seat^[37] and has access to a button that performs an emergency stop.^[38] At launch, the service was offered to a limited number of invited passengers, with time and domain restrictions.^[38]
3. The Model Y drove approximately 15 mi (24 km) from the factory to the owner's apartment complex using Robotaxi software, without a human onboard and no remote assistance, according to Musk. Upon delivery, the software was rolled back to Full Self-Driving (Supervised).^[43]

See also

• Criticism of Tesla, Inc.