National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Not to be confused with Economic and Social Research Council.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), established in 1938,^[1] is Britain's oldest independent economic research institute. The institute is a London-based^[2][3] independent UK registered charity that carries out academic research of relevance to business and policy makers,^[4] both nationally and internationally.

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Abbreviation	NIESR
Formation	1938
Type	research institute think tank
Headquarters	2 Dean Trench St, Westminster, London SW1P 3HE
Location	London, England
Coordinates	51°29′45.5″N 0°7′41.1″W
President	Sir Paul Tucker
Chair	Sir Philip Rutnam
Director	David Aikman
Staff	circa 45
Website	niesr.ac.uk

National Institute of Economic and Social Research

The institute receives no core funding from government or other sources. The bulk of funding comes from research projects awarded or commissioned by a variety of sources, including government, all acknowledged in full in their published materials. The terms of their grants prohibit any involvement from funding bodies in determining or influencing content. Funders include government departments and agencies, the research councils (particularly the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC)), charitable foundations, the European Commission, and the private sector. 

The institute is a partner with the ESRC's Centre for Macroeconomics and The Productivity Institute, and is responsible for the Productivity Commission.^[5] It also has close ties with both Cardiff and Glasgow universities.

History

Origins (1930s)

The foundation of NIESR was preceded by an initiative launched by Sir Josiah Stamp in the early 1930s^[6] Stamp, who was the President of the London, Midland and Scottish Railway, aimed to develop a central unit of British origin with funds under its control to supplement, and eventually replace, the help given by the Rockefeller Foundation (then the primary source of research funds in the British social sciences)^[7]. Stamp sought to develop an increasingly large research effort in economics and related subjects in response to the general feeling that the existing emphasis on theory needed to be balanced by an increase in applied research^[8]

Stamp garnered support from prominent academics including William Beveridge, Director of the London School of Economics (LSE); Henry Clay, Economic Adviser to the Bank of England; and Hubert Henderson, Secretary of the Economic Advisory Panel . In 1934–1935, Stamp, with the assistance of Noel Hall, attempted to secure funding from several trusts, including Halley Stewart, Leverhulme, Rockefeller, and the Pilgrim Trust. The Halley Stewart trustees provided an initial grant of £600 to explore the formation of an institute^[9].

In setting up the institute, the objective was the formation of a national organisation for carrying out independent economic research, as existing university developments, such as LSE's, were not perceived as meeting this need. Beveridge eventually became actively involved, suggesting the inclusion of the word 'social' in the title, thus changing the proposed National Institute of Economic Research to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research^[10].

The Institute was founded in 1938. Initial financial support was secured from the Pilgrim Trust, the trustees of the late Lord Leverhulme, and the Halley Stewart trustees, with the Rockefeller Foundation matching their contributions pound for pound, totalling £10,000 annually for seven years^[11].

Early Research and Wartime

Following the formal establishment, research schemes that focused heavily on quantitative economics were immediately solicited, with a small grant being made to a group of economists at Cambridge under John Maynard Keynes' chairmanship for work on economic change^[12]. Other areas of study included national income, unemployment, location of industry, credit and money markets, and commercial policy. The investigation into national income culminated in the publication of Studies in the National Income 1924–1938, edited by A.L. Bowley, in 1942. This marked the first publication in NIESR's series of economic and social studies^[13].

At the outbreak of World War II, most staff members entered government service, resulting in the suspension or curtailment of several investigations. From 1941 until 1952, the business of the Institute was conducted by an Executive Committee, with the Secretary, Miss Feodora Leontinoff (later Mrs. Stone), playing an active role. Sir Henry Clay, who succeeded Lord Stamp as Chairman in 1941, carried out the duties of a Director throughout the war and early postwar years. During the war, the Institute was able to recruit able immigrants, leading to pioneering comparisons of industrial productivity in Britain and the United States by Laci Rastas^[14].

Postwar Developments and Macroeconomic Shift

After the war, NIESR decided to focus its limited resources on internal research, concentrating on the structure and productivity of the national economy. This emphasis was influenced by the growth of statistical data made available by the government. In 1955, NIESR made a significant change in direction by deciding to take on the function of a Konjunktur (business cycle) institute. This shift, driven by Christopher Dow and Bryan Hopkin^[15], aimed to publish regular analyses and forecasts of the economy to provide an independent check on the government's assessments, particularly those from HM Treasury. This ambition was backed by Sir Robert Hall, the Economic Adviser to the Government. This new venture led to the launch of the National Institute Economic Review (NIER) in January 1959^[16]. The forecasts published in the Review were typically based on the assumption of unchanged policies, serving to highlight potential needs for policy changes.

NIESR achieved prominence in macroeconomic modelling in the 1970s and 1980s. By 1975/6, public funds accounted for about 80 per cent of NIESR’s total income, although this share declined significantly to just under half by 1987/8. NIESR developed its own internal model, Model 6, which incorporated fully endogenous wage and exchange-rate movements, and later Model 8, which included forward-looking expectations. In 1983, when the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC, renamed from SSRC in 1984) established a Macroeconomic Modelling Bureau at the University of Warwick, NIESR collaborated fully, and their model was found to be the most 'data coherent' among those examined^[17].

People

Former Directors

• Sir Noel Hall (appointed 1937)
• Geoffrey Crowther (served as Acting Director, appointed 1940)
• Sir Henry Clay^[18] (1941-1952)
• Sir Bryan Hopkin^[19] (1952-1957)
• Christopher Saunders^[20] (1957–1965)
• David Worswick^[21] (1965–1982)
• Andrew Britton (1982–1995)
• Martin Weale (1995–2011)
• Jonathan Portes (2011–2015)
• Dame Frances Cairncross (acting director, 2015-2016)
• Jagjit S Chadha (2016–2024)
• David Aikman (2025-present)

Chairs of Council

There have been chairs of council since the institute was created. The first was Lord Stamp,^[22] from 1937 to 1942. He was succeeded by Sir Henry Clay, who held the position from 1942 until 1949. Subsequent chairs included Humphrey Mynors, Sir Austin Robinson,^[23] Sir John Woods, Sir Robert Hall,^[24] Sir Hugh Week, Sir Donald MacDougall,^[25] and Sir Kenneth Berrill.^[1] Diane Coyle became the first woman to hold the position in the history of the institute,^[26] taking over the position from Sir Tim Besley. Since November 2018, Professor Nicholas Crafts CBE held the position. Since the death of Nicholas Crafts, Philip Rutnam has been the Chair of Council.

Presidents

Lord Burns was president from 2003 to 2010, followed by Sir Nicholas Monck from 2011 to 2013, and subsequently Sir Charles Bean. The current president is Sir Paul Tucker.

Governors

The Institute has nearly 150 Governors, who have a role in the accountability and governance of NIESR as a registered charity. They are drawn from academia, business, government and media, and include Ed Conway, Baron Terence Higgins, Rachel Lomax, Jesse Norman, Frances O'Grady, and Baroness Shriti Vadera. Governors also give monthly talks at the Institute, which are open to the public.

Organisation

Research areas covered by the National Institute include Destitution, Exclusion, and Strategies for Well-Being;^[27] Education and Skills;^[28] Labour, Employment and Wages;^[29] Macro-Economic Modelling and Forecasting;^[30] Macro-Economics of Climate Change;^[31] Monetary Theory and Policy;^[32] Political Economy;^[33] and Productivity, Trade, and Regional Economies.^[34]

National Institute Economic Review

Since 1959, the NIESR has published the National Institute Economic Review.^[35] Principal topics covered by the Review include economic modelling and analysis, education and training, productivity and competitiveness, and workings of the international economy. Each edition Includes detailed forecasts of both UK and World Economies, a commentary, and special articles by Institute researchers and external authors. Since 2021, the UK^[36] and Global^[37] Economic Outlook have been published in-house.

UK and Global Economic Outlook

Since 2021, the Institute has published its outlooks for the UK and Global economy online, with a limited print run in-house. Each is published quarterly following a Spring/Summer/Autumn/Winter pattern. The UK Outlook is free to view and download, whereas the Global publication requires a subscription.

Trackers on the UK economy

Each month NIESR tracks a series of key economic indicators, including Consumer Price Inflation (CPI),^[38] Gross Domestic Product (GDP)^[39] and Wages,^[40] and uses this data to forecast the future of the UK economy. In addition, each quarter they publish a Term Premium Tracker^[41] and have, from February 2021 until February 2022, tracked UK Covid-19^[42] infection rates.

Events

Each year NIESR hold a regular series of events,^[43] including annual lectures to celebrate the work of Sig Prais, Christopher Dow, Phyllis Deane, and Richard Stone. In partnership with The Anglo-German Foundation, NIESR hosts a biennial lecture on public policy. A quarterly Business Conditions Forum brings together business leaders under Chatham House rules to discuss the latest topics driving the economy.

NiGEM

An important output of NIESR has been a macroeconomic model called NiGEM (National Institute's Global Econometric Model)^[44] which is used to produce quarterly forecasts for the UK and global economy). Forecasts are also published for various other OECD countries. The model is used by the UK Treasury, IMF, Bank of England, the OECD and European Central Bank.^[44][45][46]

NiREMS and LINDA

NIESR also produces a regional economic model, called NiREMS (National Institute Regional Economic Modelling System^[47]), which combines data from NiGEM and LINDA to create economic projections for the 12 Government Regions of the UK. LINDA (Lifetime Income Distributional Analysis^[48]) is a microsimulation model, which simulates individual level data over periods of time, accounting for diverse socio-economic parameters.

Premises and Location

NIESR is currently located at 2 Dean Trench Street, Smith Square, London, SW1P 3HE, United Kingdom. The charity acquired the freehold of its premises in 1986.

The initial headquarters, established in 1938, was at 32 Gordon Square. During World War II, the premises suffered severe bomb damage in autumn 1940, forcing a temporary closure of its library. After temporary accommodation, the Institute moved to 2 Dean Trench Street in early 1942, but this house was subsequently wrecked by a flying bomb in July 1944. The premises were repaired and reoccupied at the end of 1946. In 1949, the Institute acquired 4 Dean Trench street, and by the end of 1951, the two houses were converted into a single headquarters.