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Next Australian federal election

Election of Australia's 49th parliament From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Next Australian federal election
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The next Australian federal election will be held on or before 20 May 2028 (for half the Senate + House) or on before 23 September 2028 (for just the House) or on or before 18 March 2028 (for the entirety of both houses) to elect members of the House of Representatives and half of the Senate to the 49th Parliament of Australia.

Quick Facts All 150 seats in the House of Representatives76 seats needed for a majority 40 of 76 seats in the Senate, Registered ...
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It is expected that the incumbent Labor majority government, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, will seek a third three-year term in government. They are expected to be challenged by the Liberal Party, led by Leader of the Opposition Sussan Ley. It is expected that the National Party, Australian Greens, Pauline Hanson's One Nation, and other minor parties and independents will contest the election. If the Liberal and National parties do not run together as a coalition, it will be the first time since the 1987 federal election that they have not done so.

Australia has compulsory voting, with preferential instant-runoff voting in single-member seats.

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Background

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The 2025 Australian federal election, held on 3 May, resulted in a historic landslide victory for the Australian Labor Party (ALP) under Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Labor secured 93 seats in the House of Representatives, growing their parliamentary majority and achieving the largest number of seats won by the party at the federal level since 1987. The result exceeded almost all published opinion polling, which had predicted either a smaller majority for the Labor government or a hung parliament. It was the fourth time in history that a party or coalition secured 90 or more seats in a federal election—the last instance being in 2013. It also marked the first time a single party, and specifically the Labor Party, achieved this feat and this was also the second largest number of seats won by a party or coalition in Australian electoral history exceeding the 1975 election result but falling short of the 1996 result.

The Coalition suffered significant losses, including the seat of Dickson, held by then-Opposition Leader Peter Dutton, who was unseated by Labor's Ali France.[2][3]

A particularly notable outcome was the dramatic decline of the Australian Greens in the lower house. The party lost three of its four seats, including the long-held seat of Melbourne, where Greens leader Adam Bandt was defeated by Labor's Sarah Witty, ending his 15-year tenure in Parliament. The Greens' only remaining seat in the House of Representatives was Ryan in Queensland, held by Elizabeth Watson-Brown. Analysts attributed the Greens' losses to a combination of factors, including controversial stances on foreign policy, particularly regarding the Israel-Gaza conflict, and a perceived shift away from core environmental issues, leading to voter alienation in key electorates.[4][5][6]

Another significant development in the 2025 election was the re-emergence of Clive Palmer with a new political party, the Trumpet of Patriots. After the High Court blocked the re-registration of his previous party, the United Australia Party, Palmer joined the Trumpet of Patriots in February 2025, which was modelled after Trumpism. The party's campaign featured slogans like "Make Australia Great Again" and policies opposing immigration and gender diversity initiatives. Despite spending approximately $60 million on a nationwide advertising blitz, including over $6 million on YouTube and Meta platforms, and sending over 17 million unsolicited text messages, the party failed to secure any seats in Parliament, garnering only 1.85% of the national vote. Following this defeat, Palmer announced his retirement from politics, citing his age and a desire to focus on philanthropic efforts.[7]

Nationals senator Matt Canavan challenged incumbent leader David Littleproud in a leadership spill.[8] Littleproud was re-elected as party leader on 12 May.[9]

On 13 May 2025, the Liberals elected their new leader in a leadership election. Following the federal election but prior to the leadership election, Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price defected from the Nationals party room to the Liberal party room to stand in the election for the position of Deputy Leader. Sussan Ley was subsequently elected leader, narrowly defeating Angus Taylor, with Ted O'Brien being elected as her deputy.[10] Ley is the first woman elected to lead the Liberals, the Coalition, or serve as the Leader of the Opposition at the federal level in Australia.[11] At 63, Ley is also the oldest first-time Leader of the Opposition since Arthur Calwell in 1960.[12]

The Greens held a leadership election on 15 May 2025, and elected senator Larissa Waters as their leader.[13]

On 20 May 2025, Littleproud announced the breakup of the Coalition, citing irreconcilable policy disagreements around nuclear energy amongst other topics.[14]
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Electoral system

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Members of the House of Representatives are elected by full preferential voting. Each electorate elects one member. Senators are elected by proportional representation using single transferable vote. In states, senators are elected from state-wide twelve-member districts (although in most cases only six seats are contested at a single election), and in territories from territory-wide two-member districts. Ballots are counted at least twice, at the polling place and, starting Monday night after election day, at counting centres.[15][16]

Redistribution

The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each state and territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution would be required in those states. A redistribution would be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives.

Notwithstanding the above, Queensland, Tasmania, South Australia and the Australian Capital Territory will have to undergo scheduled redistributions in 2025–2026 as seven years have already or would have elapsed since their last respective redistribution.[17]

Voter registration

Enrolment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrolments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election.[18] Enrolment is optional for 16 or 17-year-olds, but they cannot vote until they turn 18,[19][20] and persons who have applied for Australian citizenship may also apply for provisional enrolment which takes effect on the granting of citizenship.[21]

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Election date

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The date and type of federal election is determined by the Prime Minister – after a consideration of constitutional requirements, legal requirements, as well as political considerations – who advises the Governor-General to set the process in motion by dissolving either or both houses and issuing writs for election for the House of Representatives and territorial senators. The Constitution of Australia does not require simultaneous elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, but it has long been preferred that elections for the two houses take place simultaneously. The most recent House-only election took place in 1972, and the most recent Senate-only election took place in 1970. The last independently dated Senate election writ occurred during the Gair Affair in 1974. Federal elections must be held on a Saturday[22] which has been the case since the 1913 federal election.[23]

Subject to those considerations, an election for the House of Representatives can be called at any time before the expiration of the three-year term of the House of Representatives[24][25] The term of the House of Representatives starts on the first sitting day of the House following its election and runs for a maximum of three years, but the House can be dissolved earlier.[24] The date of the first sitting can be extended provided that "There shall be a session of the Parliament once at least in every year, so that twelve months shall not intervene between the last sitting of the Parliament in one session and its first sitting in the next session, but subject to the requirement that the House shall meet not more than 30 days after the date appointed for the return of the writs."[26] The actual date of the election is later. Between 10 and 27 days must be allowed for nominations,[27] and the actual election would be set between 21 and 31 days after the close of nominations.[28] Accordingly, between 31 and 58 days must be allowed after the issue of the writs to the election.

The term of senators ends on 30 June either three (for half the senators if it follows a double-dissolution) or six years after their election. Elections of senators at a half-Senate election must take place in the year before the terms expire, except if parliament is dissolved earlier.[29] The terms of senators from the territories align with House elections. The latest date that a half-Senate election can be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office on 1 July. This took over a month in 2016, so practically, the date in which a half-Senate election is to take place must be between 1 July of the year before Senate terms expire until mid-May of the expiry year.

A double dissolution cannot take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[30]

The Constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[31]

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State"[32]
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.[29]
  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[33]
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof."[34]
  • Section 156 (1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ".[27]
  • Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination".[28]
  • Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday".[22]
More information Election type, Earliest date ...

The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections,[35] so the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2027. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days,[36] the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House and half-Senate election is Saturday, 7 August 2027.[37] Given that the elections for the new senators must take place by 30 June 2028, the latest possible date for a half-Senate election is 20 May 2028.

The latest possible election for the House of Representatives will be subject to the conditions above, with the house scheduled to first meet on 22 July 2025. Based on this, the house will expire on 21 July 2028, 10 days after that is 31 July 2028 and 27 days after that is 27 August 2028, and 31 days after that is Wednesday 27 September 2028. Given the fixed Saturday polling day the latest possible date for a house only election is Saturday 23 September 2028.

A double dissolution (a deadlock-breaking provision to dissolve both houses of parliament) cannot be called within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[38] That means that any double dissolution of the 48th Parliament would have had to be granted by Friday 21 January 2028. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be 18 March 2028.[37] This can only occur if a bill that passes the House of Representatives is rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

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Candidates

Hannah Ferguson, the CEO of Cheek Media, will run as an independent for the Senate in New South Wales.[39]

One Nation senator Pauline Hanson will "probably" stand for re-election in Queensland.[40]

Opinion polling

Notes

  1. The Nationals, primarily representing agrarian interests, do not field candidates in seats outside of rural and regional Australia, making it mathematically impossible for the party to form majority government.
  2. Party leader Robbie Katter sits as the member for Traeger in the Queensland Legislative Assembly.
  3. KAP are unlikely to field candidates outside of Queensland (30 seats), making it mathematically impossible for the party to form majority government.
  4. Centre Alliance MP Rebekha Sharkie, who has described CA as a "party of one," has been its sole candidate at federal elections since 2022.
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References

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