Opinion polling for the next New Zealand general election

Several polling firms have conducted opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). Curia Market Research is no longer a member of the Research Association of New Zealand, following complaints and the resignation from RANZ by its Principal, David Farrar.^[1] The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.

The current parliament was elected on 14 October 2023. The next election is expected to take place in late 2026.

Party vote

The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), Green (GRN), ACT, New Zealand First (NZF), Te Pāti Māori (TPM), and Opportunities (TOP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.

Graph of opinion polls by party.

Opinion polls grouped by main party blocs: Labour, Greens and Māori as the left bloc and National, ACT and New Zealand First as the right bloc.

Date[lower-alpha 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	GRN	ACT	NZF	TPM	TOP	Others	Lead
26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024	Roy Morgan	902	37.5	23	14	10	7.5	4	2.5	1.5	14.5
8–10 Sep 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	39	26.7	11	8.8	6.8	5	1.1	2.4	12.3
1–10 Sep 2024	Talbot Mills		37	32	10	8	6.1	3.9	–	–	5
29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024	Roy Morgan	898	36	26.5	13	9.5	7.5	3.5	2.5	1.5	9.5
10–14 Aug 2024	1 News–Verian	1,001	38	30	11	7	6	4.2	1.1	2.8[lower-alpha 2]	8
24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024	Roy Morgan	930	32.5	24	14	11	6.5	6	4.5	1.5	8.5
4–8 Jul 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	37.6	25.9	12.5	9.1	7.3	3.5	2.4	1.8[lower-alpha 3]	11.7
27 May – 23 Jun 2024	Roy Morgan	930	35	27.5	14.5	9	5.5	3.5	2.5	2.5	7.5
15–19 Jun 2024	1 News–Verian	1,002	38	29	13	7	6	3.3	1.5	2.1[lower-alpha 4]	9
4–6 Jun 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	35.4	29.4	12.7	9.7	5.6	4.0	0.8	2.4[lower-alpha 5]	6
30 May 2024	Budget 2024 is delivered.
22 Apr – 19 May 2024	Roy Morgan	925	33.5	30	14	9.5	5.5	3	3	1.5	3.5
1–10 May 2024	Talbot Mills		35	32	–	–	–	–	–	–	3
5–7 May 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	37.3	30	10.2	9.4	5.5	3.1	1.4	3.1[lower-alpha 6]	7.3
30 Apr 2024	Labour–Talbot Mills		34	33	12	7	6	4	–	–	1
20–24 Apr 2024	1 News–Verian	1,000	36	30	14	7	4.2	3.7	1.2	3.7[lower-alpha 7]	6
25 Mar – 21 Apr 2024	Roy Morgan	934	36.5	24.5	13	11	5.5	5.5	2	2	12
2–4 Apr 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	37.1	25.7	14.6	7.2	6.3	4.6	1.6	3[lower-alpha 8]	11.4
26 Feb – 24 Mar 2024	Roy Morgan	931	38	23	13.5	11.5	6.5	3.5	2.5	1	15
1–10 Mar 2024	Talbot Mills	1,000+	38	28	14	8	6	–	–	–	10
10 Mar 2024	Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[2]
3–5 Mar 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	37.4	25.3	11.3	10	7.4	2.5	2.1	4[lower-alpha 9]	12.1
29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024	Roy Morgan	935	35.5	21.5	15.5	12	7.5	4	2.5	1.5	14
21 Feb 2024	Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies aged 49.[3]
10–14 Feb 2024	1 News–Verian	1,002	38	28	12	8	6	3.7	1.9	2.6[lower-alpha 10]	10
1–10 Feb 2024	Talbot Mills		38	29	12	7	6.2	4.9	1.4	–	9
1–7 Feb 2024	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	39.6	27.9	9	13.7	5	2.3	–	2.5	11.7
30 Jan 2024	James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024.[4]
8–28 Jan 2024	Roy Morgan	947	38	22	15.5	7.5	6	4.5	4.5	2	16
8–10 Jan 2024	Curia	1,000	41	28.4	9.5	7.8	5.6	3.6	–	–	12.6
27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023	Roy Morgan	947	36	22	15.5	9.5	6	5	4	2	14
3–5 Dec 2023	Curia	–	36.5	28.8	10.8	6.2	8.1	5	–	4.6	7.7
3 Dec 2023	Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party.[5]
27 Nov 2023	Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand.
30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023	Roy Morgan	920	37.5	21	12.5	12.5	8	2.5	3.5	2.5[lower-alpha 11]	16.5
1–6 Nov 2023	Taxpayers' Union-Curia	1,000	37	28.3	13.8	8.1	6	3.4	2.9	3.7[lower-alpha 12]	8.7
14 Oct 2023	2023 election result	N/A	38.08	26.92	11.61	8.64	6.09	3.08	2.22	3.36	11.16
Date[lower-alpha 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	NAT	LAB	GRN	ACT	NZF	TPM	TOP	Others	Lead

Preferred prime minister

Date[lower-alpha 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	Luxon	Hipkins	Swarbrick	Seymour	Peters	Lead
8–10 Sep 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	32.7	12.6	7.2	5.2	6.7	20.1
1–10 Sep 2024	Talbot Mills		26	22	–	–	–	4
10–14 Aug 2024	1 News–Verian	1,001	28	18	7	4	5	10
4–8 Jul 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	34.5	18.7	10.9	5.6	5.6	15.8
15–19 Jun 2024	1 News–Verian	1,002	23	18	6	4	4	5
4–6 Jun 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	25.4	20.2	8.6	5	3.8	5.2
1–10 May 2024	Talbot Mills		25	25	–	–	–	Tie
20–24 Apr 2024	1 News–Verian	1,000	23	16	6	5	4	7
10 Mar 2024	Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[2]
1–10 Mar 2024	Talbot Mills	1,000+	24	23	–	–	–	1
10–14 Feb 2024	1 News–Verian	1,002	25	15	4	4	6	10
1–10 Feb 2024	Talbot Mills		27	23	–	–	–	4
1–7 Feb 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	29	19	6	10	6	10
8–10 Jan 2024	Curia	1,000	31	13	–	–	–	18
3–5 Dec 2023	Curia		30	22	–	–	–	8
1–6 Nov 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	33	18	6.3	4	5	15

Government approval rating

Date[lower-alpha 1]	Polling organisation	Sample size	Right direction	Wrong direction	Do not know	Lead
26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024	Roy Morgan	902	39	46.5	14.5	7.5
1–10 Sep 2024	Talbot Mills		42	47	11	5
29 Jul – 25 Aug 2024	Roy Morgan	898	43	45.5	11.5	2.5
24 Jun – 21 Jul 2024	Roy Morgan	930	38	48	14	10
4–8 Jul 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	47.3	33.9	18.8	13.4
27 May – 23 Jun 2024	Roy Morgan	930	35.5	52.5	12	17
22 Apr – 19 May 2024	Roy Morgan	925	43	47	10	4
1–10 May 2024	Talbot Mills		38	52	10	14
5–7 May 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	45.1	42.6	12.3	2.5
25 Mar–21 Apr 2024	Roy Morgan	934	34.5	49	16.5	14.5
26 Feb–24 Mar 2024	Roy Morgan	931	35	54	11	19
1–10 Mar 2024	Talbot Mills	1,000+	40	48	12	8
3–5 Mar 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	39.5	43.4	17	3.9
29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024	Roy Morgan	935	41.5	43.5	15	2
1–10 Feb 2024	Talbot Mills		43	41	16	2
1–7 Feb 2024	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	39.7	35.2	25.1	4.5
8–28 Jan 2024	Roy Morgan	947	42	41	17	1
27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023	Roy Morgan	947	38	45	17	7
30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023	Roy Morgan	920	36.5	46	17.5	9.5
9–12 Nov 2023	Guardian Essential	1,193	29	48	23	19
1–6 Nov 2023	Taxpayers' Union–Curia	1,000	29	49	22	20

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.^[6]

Source	Seats in parliament[lower-roman 1]							Likely government formation(s)
	NAT	LAB	GRN	ACT	NZF	TPM	Total
Roy Morgan[7] 26 Aug – 22 Sep 2024 poll	47	29	17	13	9	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (69)
Taxpayers' Union–Curia[8] 8–10 Sep 2024 poll	48	33	14	11	8	6	120	National–ACT–NZ First (67)
Talbot Mills[9] 1–10 Sep 2024 poll	46	39	12	10	8	6*	121	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
1 News–Verian[10] 10–14 Aug 2024 poll	49	38	14	8	7	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (64)
2023 election result[11] 14 Oct 2023	48	34	15	11	8	6**	122	National–ACT–NZ First (67)

* indicates an overhang seat

1. Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.

See also

• 2023 New Zealand general election
• Opinion polling for the 2023 New Zealand general election
• Politics of New Zealand

Notes

1. These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
2. NewZeal 0.7%
   New Conservatives Party 0.5%
   Animal Justice Party 0.3%
   DemocracyNZ 0.2%
   Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.2%
   Democratic Alliance 0.1%
   Women's Rights Party 0.1%
   New Nation Party 0.1%
   NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.1%
   Freedoms New Zealand 0.1%
   Others 0.4%
3. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.0%
   Others 0.8%
4. New Nation Party 0.6%
   Animal Justice Party 0.5%
   NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.2%
   Vision NZ 0.2%
   New Zealand Loyal 0.2%
   Freedoms New Zealand 0.1%
   New Conservatives Party 0.1%
   NewZeal 0.1%
   Women's Rights Party 0.1%
   
5. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.3%
   Vision NZ 0.5%
   New Conservatives Party 0.1%
   Others 0.5%
6. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.1%
   Others 2.0%
7. New Zealand Loyal 0.9%
   NewZeal 0.6%
   Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.5%
   New Nation Party 0.4%
   Freedoms New Zealand 0.3%
   New Conservatives Party 0.3%
   Animal Justice Party 0.2%
   DemocracyNZ 0.2%
   Vision NZ 0.1%
   Others 0.2%
8. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.5%
   DemocracyNZ 0.3%
   Vision NZ 0.2%
   New Conservatives Party 0.2%
   Others 0.8%
9. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 1.3%
   Vision NZ 0.8%
   DemocracyNZ 0.4%
   Others 1.5%
10. NZ Outdoors & Freedom Party 0.4%
    New Zealand Loyal 0.4%
    Animal Justice Party 0.3%
    New Conservatives Party 0.3%
    Women's Rights Party 0.3%
    NewZeal 0.3%
    DemocracyNZ 0.3%
    Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party 0.1%
    Vision NZ 0.1%
    Others 0.1%
11. New Conservatives Party 0.5%
    Others 2%
12. New Conservatives Party 0.7%
    Vision NZ 0.3%

References

1. Mills, Ian; Lowe, Geoff (20 August 2024). "Update from RANZ Chair on membership resignation by Curia Market Research". Research Association of New Zealand.
2. "Chlöe Swarbrick elected new Green Party co-leader". 1 News. 10 March 2024.
3. Watson, Melania (21 February 2024). "Green MP and advocate for Pasifika community Fa'anānā Efeso Collins has died". Newshub.
4. Quinlivan, Mark (30 January 2024). "James Shaw resigns as Green Party co-leader". Newshub.
5. Gill, Sinead (3 December 2023). "TOP leader Raf Manji resigns". The Post.
6. Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
7. "National support up in September as National-led Government increases lead to 14% points after RBNZ cut interest ratess". Roy Morgan. 8 October 2024.
8. "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: September 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
9. Ensor, Jamie (19 September 2024). "New poll results show closer fight between Chris Hipkins, Christopher Luxon for preferred Prime Minister". NZ Herald.
10. Desmarais, Felix (19 August 2024). "Poll: Voters warming to Luxon as PM, party votes hold firm". 1 News.
11. "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.