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2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

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2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
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The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

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Incumbent Governor Tom Corbett was defeated by Tom Wolf.[1][2] This was the only governorship Democrats flipped in the 2014 midterms. Wolf was sworn in on January 20, 2015, [3] marking the most recent time the Pennsylvania governor's office changed partisan control. This was one of nine Republican-held governorships up for election in a state that Barack Obama won in the 2012 presidential election. As of 2025, this is the only Pennsylvania gubernatorial election since William Bigler in 1854 where the incumbent was defeated. [a]

Corbett was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be reelected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track".[4] Politico called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country,[5] The Washington Post ranked the election as the most likely for a party switch,[6] and the majority of election forecasters rated it "likely Democratic".

Wolf won 20 counties that Corbett won in 2010: Erie, Lawrence, Beaver, Allegheny, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Centre, Clinton, Northumberland, Dauphin, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Carbon, Schuylkill, Lehigh, Berks, Bucks, and Chester. Meanwhile, this is the last time these counties have voted Democratic in a statewide election: Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill.

This is the first Pennsylvania gubernatorial election since 1982 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president, and the first time since 1934 this occurred during a Democratic administration. This also remains the last time that a Pennsylvania gubernatorial election has been decided by a single-digit margin, as Democrats have won each subsequent election by large double-digit margins. Additionally, it was the most recent election where Pennsylvania voted for a gubernatorial candidate of a different party from fellow Rust Belt states Michigan and Wisconsin.[7] Wolf managed to outperform Barack Obama and Bob Casey Jr.’s performances in the 2012 presidential and U.S. Senate races, respectively.

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Background

Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years from 1950 to 2010.[8] This has been referred to as "the cycle",[9][10] but it was broken with a Democratic Party win in 2014. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938; Democrats lost 16 of the previous 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House, a pattern begun in 1860.[11] The last incumbent governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854. Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms.[12] Libertarian nominee Ken Krawchuk failed to file the paperwork to be on the ballot in time and was excluded from the election as a result.

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Republican primary

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Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi, an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot.[13] NASCAR Camping World Truck Series veteran Norm Benning backed Governor Corbett during the later half of the NASCAR season with "Re-Elect Tom Corbett" posted on his truck.

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Tom Corbett

Elected officials

Individuals

Others

Polling

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Results

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Democratic primary

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Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Robert McCord

Individuals

Organizations

Tom Wolf

Individuals

Newspapers

Polling

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  • ** Internal poll for the Tom Wolf campaign
  • ^ Internal poll for the Kathleen McGinty campaign
  • * Internal poll for the Allyson Schwartz campaign

Results

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Results by county:
  Wolf—80–90%
  Wolf—70–80%
  Wolf—60–70%
  Wolf—50–60%
  Wolf—40–50%
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General election

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Candidates

  • Tom Corbett (R), incumbent governor
  • Paul Glover (G), activist
  • Jonathan D. Jewell (I), Independent
  • Ken Krawchuk (L), technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2002
  • Tom Wolf (D), former secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue

Debates

Spending

As of mid-October, Wolf had raised $27.6 million and spent $21.1 million while Corbett had raised $20.6 million and spent $19.3 million. The two campaigns had run over 21,000 television ads, costing over $13 million.[134]

Predictions

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Polling

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Hypothetical polling

With Corbett

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With Gerlach

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With Guzzardi

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With Kelly

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Results

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Results by county

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Corbett won ten of 18 congressional districts, despite losing statewide to Wolf. However, at the time, most of the districts were gerrymanders drawn by Republican legislators.[175] Wolf won the 6th, 7th and 8th districts, which all elected Republicans to the House.

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See also

Notes

  1. In the mid-1800s, governors served three-year terms, and were limited to serving no more than six years of every nine. Beginning with the election of 1874, they were limited to one four-year term. A change to the state constitution in 1968 permitted governors to serve two consecutive four-year terms, then wait at least one term before serving again, with no lifetime limit.

References

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