Post-election pendulum for the 1999 Victorian state election

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 1999 Victorian state election.

"Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.

Labor seats					Liberal-National seats
	Seat	Margin	Swing			Seat	Margin	Swing
	Broadmeadows	24.7	-0.4
	Thomastown	23.9	+1.9
	Coburg	21.8	+4.9			Malvern	16.6	+1.0
	Sunshine	20.2	+1.1			Murray Valley	15.9	+6.5
	Preston	18.6	+3.3			Rodney	15.7	+10.5
	Williamstown	18.5	+2.9			Brighton	15.6	+2.5
	Footscray	17.6	-1.8			Wimmera 1	15.1	*
	Richmond	16.2	-1.1			Hawthorn	14.1	-0.5
	Northcote	16.1	-3.8			Kew	13.8	+1.2
	Mill Park	15.8	+1.9			Warrandyte	13.5	+0.4
	Pascoe Vale	14.9	+3.8			Doncaster	13.3	+1.7
	Altona	14.7	+6.5			Glen Waverley	13.2	+2.5
	Melbourne	13.8	-2.1			Sandringham	12.5	+1.8
	Keilor	11.9	+0.3			Wantirna	11.9	+1.2
	Clayton	11.7	+2.1			Bulleen	11.6	+3.0
	Werribee	11.5	+0.8			Mooroolbark	10.9	+1.3
	Melton	11.3	-0.9			Frankston	10.7	+4.7
	Bendigo West	11.3	+9.1			Polwarth	10.7	-2.6
	Geelong North	10.9	+2.8			Evelyn	9.5	+3.2
	Springvale	10.8	+2.9			Warrnambool	8.8	+5.0
	Morwell	8.9	+6.2			Caulfield	8.5	+0.8
	Essendon	8.5	+5.1			Box Hill	7.6	+2.7
	Dandenong North	8.0	+5.8			Gippsland South	7.5	+11.9
	Gippsland East 2	7.7	*			Benalla	7.4	+7.9
	Niddrie	6.8	+2.4			Knox	7.3	+0.6
	Albert Park	6.4	-2.4			Forest Hill	7.1	+3.4
	Mildura 3	6.1	*			Benambra	7.1	+7.9
	Bundoora	6.1	+3.5			Burwood	6.8	+1.8
	Dandenong	5.8	+2.4			Pakenham	6.5	+4.6
	Ivanhoe	5.4	+3.9			Dromana	6.2	+1.9
	Frankston East	4.6	+7.7			Bennettswood	6.1	+3.1
	Yan Yean	4.2	+2.6			Mornington	5.7	+5.6
	Gippsland West 4	3.9	*			Cranbourne	5.7	+3.4
	Tullamarine	3.8	+7.0			Berwick	5.0	+0.4
	Ballarat East	3.7	+4.7			South Barwon	4.7	+5.5
	Oakleigh	3.3	+3.4			Bayswater	4.7	+2.8
	Bendigo East	2.9	+7.9			Portland	4.5	+5.9
	Ripon	2.6	+7.2			Shepparton 5	4.1	*
	Narracan	2.5	+4.1			Prahran	4.0	+0.6
	Gisborne	1.6	+9.4			Eltham	3.6	+3.3
	Ballarat West	1.0	+5.8			Monbulk	3.2	+2.0
	Seymour	0.7	+4.9			Swan Hill 6	2.8	*
	Mitcham	0.5	+5.8			Mordialloc	2.2	+2.5
	Carrum	0.2	+1.3			Bentleigh	1.9	+2.8
	Geelong	0.0	+3.5			Bellarine	1.7	+3.8

Notes

Seats which changed hands are shown in bold.

A plus (+) sign in front of a swing figure indicates a swing towards Labor and a minus (-) sign indicates a swing to the Liberal-National parties.

¹ No swing figure is available for this seat due to the lack of a Labor versus Liberal-National margin at the previous election.

² The margin for this seat is Independent (Craig Ingram) over National.

³ The margin for this seat is Independent (Russell Savage) over Liberal.

⁴ The margin for this seat is Independent (Susan Davies) over Liberal.

⁵ The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Chris Hazelman).

⁶ The margin for this seat is National over Independent (Carl Ditterich).

References

• Green, Antony (June 2001). "1999 Victorian State Election: Summary of Results" (PDF). ABC Election Unit. Retrieved 24 December 2011.