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Economy of Kyrgyzstan
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The economy of Kyrgyzstan is market-oriented, driven by trade, light manufacturing, mining, and agriculture. Since the early 1990s, it has embraced a more open and business-friendly approach than its Central Asian peers. Strategically located along key overland routes from China to Europe and West Asia, it functions as a major transit and re-export hub. With abundant natural resources and untapped potential in hydropower and tourism, the country is poised for sustainable growth.
Since 2020, Kyrgyzstan has achieved greater political stability after years of turmoil[21], with Sadyr Japarov’s leadership marking a pivotal shift. This stability, together with settled border issues[22], has supported positive economic outcomes.[16] The country sustained strong annual GDP growth of 9% in each of the years 2022, 2023, and 2024. These developments underscore Kyrgyzstan’s growing strategic importance in Central Asia and its emerging role in regional trade and infrastructure networks. The government has launched several major infrastructure projects, notably the Kambar-Ata 1 Hydropower Plant and the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway — a key component of the Belt and Road Initiative — both of which will transform the country’s economic landscape.[23]
Kyrgyzstan’s long-term growth is supported by favorable demographics: the population has grown by 2% annually over the past decade, reaching 7.3 million[3] in 2025. Limited domestic employment opportunities continue to drive labor migration, primarily to Russia. On the positive side, the economy’s reliance on remittances — now around 14.6%[24] of GDP — has declined significantly from a peak of 33%,[25] indicating growing internal resilience.
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Macroeconomic trends
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Kyrgyzstan demonstrated strong macroeconomic performance since 2022.[16] The country maintained a fiscal surplus for two consecutive years, in 2023 and 2024, reflecting prudent public financial management and stronger-than-expected revenue collection. Higher budget revenues stemmed from increased taxes and customs duties due to rising imports, higher gold prices, and improved tax administration. Government expenditures rose to 34% of GDP in 2024, up from 33% in 2023, driven by higher spending on healthcare, public sector wages, and pensions.[26]
In the first quarter of 2025, Kyrgyzstan reported a significant fiscal surplus of $528 million, driven by a 84% year-over-year increase in budget revenues. The surplus is expected to support the financing of the public housing program and contribute to reducing external debt.[27]
In recent years, Kyrgyz economy has been affected by inflationary pressures stemming from global supply chain disruptions triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war. Nevertheless, inflation remained relatively contained, supported by a stable som and prudent monetary policy from the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic. It declined from 10.8% in 2023 to 5% in 2024, before edging up to 6.9% by March 2025.[28] The National Bank has maintained the policy rate at 9% since May 2024.[29] Banking sector capital adequacy and liquidity ratios remained strong at 22.3% and 78.8%, well above requirements.[26]
The currency strengthened by 2.3% against the US dollar in 2024, while the real effective exchange rate appreciated by 3.6%. Purchases of domestically mined gold and the conversion of nonmonetary gold on the National Bank's balance sheet to reserves increased gross reserves by a substantial 57.2% to $5.1 billion at the end of 2024, cover for 4.2 months of projected imports, up from 2.4 months in 2023.[30] In July 2025, Kyrgyzstan’s reserves reached $6.6 billion.[31]
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Public debt
Kyrgyzstan’s total public debt stood at $6.6 billion as of 31 December 2024, representing 37.6% of GDP for the year, down from 42% in 2023. Total external public debt amounted to $4.5 billion, or 25% of GDP,[32] funded primarily by official bilateral and multilateral creditors at concessional rates and with long maturities. This significantly limits the potential for nonresident capital flight in an adverse scenario, thereby mitigating external vulnerabilities.[33][34]
Kyrgyzstan's largest external creditors are Export–Import Bank of China ($1.65 billion or 36% of gross external debt), Asian Development Bank (16%), World Bank (16%), the IMF (8%), the Eurasian Development Bank (6%). The average weighted interest rate on external public debt was 1.57% per annum.[35]
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Foreign trade
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Kyrgyzstan’s trade landscape has evolved significantly in recent years, marked by substantial growth in exports and a notable shift in trade partnerships. In 2024, Kyrgyzstan’s total exports reached $3.8 billion, representing a 13% increase compared to 2023.[36] The nation’s principal exports include gold, coal, copper ores, textiles, foodstuffs, vehicles and automotive parts, and electronics. Gold remains Kyrgyzstan’s dominant export commodity, with the state-owned Kumtor gold mine serving as a key source of foreign exchange and budget revenue.[37]
Kyrgyzstan’s principal imports include refined petroleum, iron and steel products, vehicles and automotive parts, electronics, chemical products, and a broad range of foodstuffs. In 2024, total imports reached $12 billion, with a significant portion of these goods being re-exported.[38]
Kyrgyzstan’s current account deficit for 2024 is estimated at 30.7% of GDP. However, the IMF attributes approximately 23 percentage points of GDP to unrecorded re-exports of goods, primarily related to transit trade within the EAEU. After adjusting for these flows, the underlying current account deficit is estimated to be closer to 8% of GDP.[16]
A significant development in Kyrgyzstan’s export profile is the surge in fuel exports to Afghanistan. In the first quarter of the year, Kyrgyzstan exported more than 40 million liters of gasoline and fuel oil to Afghanistan, a more than 100-fold increase compared to the same period in 2024.[39] Beyond fuel, Kyrgyzstan’s exports to Afghanistan include a range of goods, such as agricultural products (like dried legumes and flour), construction materials (like cement and metal structures).
Transit trade
Kyrgyzstan historically occupied an important position on the Great Silk Road, the ancient trade route connecting China and the Mediterranean. Goods and caravans passed through the region, blending diverse cultures and traditions. In the modern era, Kyrgyzstan became the first Central Asian country to join the World Trade Organization (WTO), gaining membership in 1998. Since 2015, it has also been a member of Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This dual membership enables Kyrgyzstan to function as a strategic transit hub in Eurasian trade.[40]
The country act as a re-export platform,[41] particularly for goods from China, Türkiye, South Korea and the UAE, which are imported at low WTO tariffs and re-exported to other EAEU countries — primarily Russia and Kazakhstan — without additional duties or customs checks. Kyrgyzstan’s lower external tariff regime allows goods to enter the EAEU more cheaply than through other member states.[42]
This role has grown in importance since 2022, as Western sanctions on Russia spurred a surge in parallel imports via Kyrgyz territory. The result has been strong economic growth and improved fiscal performance. From 2021-2024, the Kyrgyzstan's goods imports more than doubled — from $5.2 billion to $12 billion — driven almost entirely by imports of passenger cars, smartphones, and household electrical appliances. China accounts for nearly 60% of this increase, while European countries contribute around 8%. Most of these goods are likely re-exported to Russia and other EAEU members, with limited domestic use.[41]
Because Kyrgyzstan and Russia share customs-free zone under the EAEU, trade statistics do not fully capture Kyrgyzstan’s exports to EAEU partners, as no conventional customs declarations are required. This makes it difficult to quantify re-exports. Nevertheless, the re-export model supports a wide range of sectors within the Kyrgyz economy, including logistics, warehousing, transportation, customs brokerage, and wholesale trade.[41]
In August 2024, the Kyrgyz government established the Trading Company of the Kyrgyz Republic to monitor trade involving Kyrgyz companies whose goods do not physically enter the country. This strategic step reflects broader efforts to regulate trade and financial flows, amid heightened scrutiny over re-export activities and international sanctions compliance.[43]
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Industries
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Agriculture
Agriculture remains a significant part of the economy, employing a large portion of the workforce and having represented 12.4%, 11.0% and 8.6% of GDP in 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively. Key agricultural products include wool, milk, cotton, tobacco, and fruits.[44]
Subsistence farming increased in the early 2000s. After sharp declines in the early 1990s, agricultural production by the early 2000s was approaching 1991 levels. Grain production in the lower valleys and livestock grazing on upland pastures constitute the largest share of the agricultural workforce. Farmers are shifting toward grain cultivation and away from cotton and tobacco. Other important products include dairy, poultry, hay, animal feed, potatoes, vegetables, and sugar beets.[45]
Kyrgyzstan's major agricultural crop production in 2024[46]:
- Wheat: 750,000 tons
- Barley: 650,000 tons
- Maize (corn): 770,000 tons
- Rice: 50,000 tons
- Potato: 1,200,000 tons
- Sugar beet: 870,000 tons
- Fruits and berries: 426,000 tons
- Vegetables: 1,500,000 tons
Kyrgyzstan is now largely food self-sufficient[47], particularly in dairy, eggs, sugar, vegetables, potatoes, and meat. Despite ongoing growth in domestic production of grain, vegetable oil, fruits, and berries, Kyrgyzstan remains reliant on imports for approximately 50% of its consumption of these commodities.[45]
Forestry
Only 4% of Kyrgyzstan is classified as forested. All of that area is state-owned, and none is classified as available for wood supply. The main commercial product of the forests is walnuts.[48] The Arslanbob walnut forest is the largest natural walnut forest in the world, located in the Jalal-Abad Region of Kyrgyzstan, on the western slopes of the Fergana and Chatkal mountain ranges. Covering approximately 11,000 hectares of dense walnut groves, the broader forest zone, which includes other tree species, extends over 600,000 to 700,000 hectares. Each mature tree can yield 150 to 400 kilograms of walnuts annually. Kyrgyzstan is a major regional exporter of walnuts, with significant shipments to Russia, Iran, and Turkey. In some years, up to 25% of Russia’s walnut imports come from Kyrgyzstan.
Fishery
Kyrgyzstan’s aquaculture industry has rebounded strongly since its collapse in 2003, growing from just 12 metric tons to over 20,000 tons by 2022. Total fish production reached 33,600 tons in 2023, with exports exceeding 5,500 tons, signaling expanding regional market opportunities. This growth is driven by investments in technology, sustainable farming of cold-water species, and the country’s rich freshwater resources. Kyrgyzstan is increasingly positioned as a key freshwater fish exporter in Central Asia, enhancing both its economy and food security.
Mining and minerals
Mining — particularly gold extraction — plays a central role in the Kyrgyz economy. The state-owned Kumtor gold mine is one of the largest gold deposits in the region. Beyond gold, Kyrgyzstan is rich in critical raw materials[49] essential for modern technologies, including substantial reserves of antimony — a key mineral for the electronics and defense industries.
Promising new gold projects at Jerooy, Taldy–Bulak, and recent discoveries like Tokhtonysay highlight the country’s strong potential for expanding gold production.
Kyrgyzaltyn, the state-owned mining agency, manages all mines, often partnering with foreign investors to bring expertise and capital, supporting modernization and growth.
Although uranium and antimony production have declined since Soviet times, Kyrgyzstan’s extensive coal reserves—estimated at 2.5 billion tons—offer significant opportunities to boost domestic energy supply, with the Kara Keche coal deposit poised to increase annual coal output substantially.
While oil and natural gas production remain limited, the country’s rich mineral base positions it well for tapping into critical raw materials essential for emerging technologies and the green energy transition. Exploration efforts targeting rare earth elements and industrial metals are gaining momentum, signaling promising prospects for future development.
Manufacturing
Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Kyrgyzstan’s manufacturing sector experienced a sharp decline due to disrupted supply chains and the loss of traditional markets. However, since the early 2020s, the sector has shown signs of recovery and structural transformation, remaining a key contributor to the economy by accounting for approximately 12.6% of GDP in both 2023 and 2024, slightly down from 13.6% in 2022.
Metallurgy is the main component of the manufacturing sector, particularly through gold production, which is a major export commodity. Metallurgy accounted for approximately 21% of the manufacturing sector in 2024. Production of food products (beverages) and tobacco, which is focused on processing agricultural products into consumer goods, accounted for approximately 19.4% of the manufacturing sector in 2024. Textile production, production of wearing apparel and footwear, leather and other leather goods, which is focused on garment manufacturing, accounted for approximately 4.5% of the manufacturing sector in 2024. Production of rubber and plastics items and other non-metallic mineral products, which comprises producing a variety of goods for domestic and regional markets, represented approximately 10.5% of the manufacturing sector in 2024. Production of refined petroleum products accounted for approximately 8.5% of the manufacturing sector in 2024.
Renewed investment in mining, energy, and light manufacturing, supported by state programs like the 100 Industrial Enterprises initiative[50] has driven a revival in Kyrgyzstan’s manufacturing sector. Growth has been particularly strong in mining (especially gold and coal), electricity generation, small-scale hydropower, and light industries like textiles and food processing. Automotive assembly[51] and domestic production of construction materials[52] are also emerging as growth areas.
Construction
The construction sector in Kyrgyzstan has been a significant contributor to the nation’s economy in recent years, demonstrating consistent growth and playing a pivotal role in overall economic development. The construction sector’s growth has been driven by both public and private investments in infrastructure projects, residential housing, and commercial developments. Government initiatives aimed at improving transportation networks, energy infrastructure, and urban development have significantly strengthened the sector. The construction sector provides jobs to a substantial portion of the workforce. Its expansion has had a multiplier effect on related industries, including manufacturing, services, and real estate, thereby contributing to broader economic growth.
Construction accounted for 9.3%, 7.3%, 7.1%, 7.3% and 8.3% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP in 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024, respectively. In 2024, the sector grew by 39.7% in real terms compared to 2023, driven by an increase in construction and reconstruction of facilities in mining, provision (supply) of electricity, gas, steam, water supply and treatment, waste treatment, hotels and restaurants.
Housing construction has also seen significant expansion, driven by population growth, urbanization, and remittance-fueled demand. Rising domestic production of construction materials and increased private investment have contributed to this boom,[53] turning housing construction into one of the key engines of non-extractive economic activity.
Energy
Over 90% of Kyrgyzstan's electricity generation relies on hydropower, primarily from large cascade plants on the Naryn River. However, the country has historically exploited less than 15% of its estimated hydroelectric potential of approximately 140 TWh annually. As of 2024, hydropower accounted for around 90% of all electricity production, with small hydroelectric plants contributing approximately 156 million kWh alongside 12.77 billion kWh from large hydro facilities.[54]
Kyrgyzstan has limited domestic fossil fuel reserves and heavily depends on natural gas imports from Uzbekistan. Thermal (coal- and gas-fired) plants supplied 1.76 billion kWh in 2024, while hydropower produced 12.77 billion kWh; the country imported 3.6 billion kWh to meet rising demand of 18.3 billion kWh.[54]
The country's infrastructure is aging: the national grid includes over 45,000 km of transmission lines, largely built during Soviet-era expansion.
Kyrgyzstan is actively expanding both large and small hydropower projects. The proposed Kambar-Ata-1 project — a 1,860 MW dam on the Naryn River— has received roadmap support from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan and secured at least US $18.6 million in World Bank development funding by mid-2024. When operational (expected by 2028), it is projected to generate 5.6 billion kWh annually, enabling year-round domestic supply, seasonal export capacity, and support for the CASA-1000 transmission corridor.[55]
Small hydropower capacity is also scaling up: private plants are expected to reach 400–500 MW by 2027–2028, adding roughly 600 million kWh annually.[56] The country is also beginning to diversify its energy mix with solar and wind: a 200 MW solar plant near Tokmok is expected by 2025, and additional solar (400 MW) and wind (100 MW) projects are in development as of 2024.[57]
Hydropower remains the backbone of Kyrgyzstan's energy sector, with ongoing diversification and modernization efforts aimed at reducing energy losses, enhancing self-sufficiency, and boosting exports to neighboring countries.
Services
Kyrgyzstan’s tourism sector, centred on the scenic Issyk-Kul Lake and mountain trekking, has seen impressive growth over the past two decades. From attracting around 450,000 tourists annually in the early 2000s, the country welcomed over 8.6 million visitors in 2024. This rapid growth has boosted tourism service exports to nearly $480 million in the first half of 2024 alone.
Visitors primarily come from neighboring Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Russia, but there is a growing number of tourists from Gulf countries, China, South Korea, Türkiye, and Europe. Despite earlier challenges related to limited investment, the sector is benefiting from improved infrastructure, easier visa regulations, and targeted government promotion.
The financial sector in Kyrgyzstan plays a critical role in supporting economic diversification. Banks and microfinance institutions provide much-needed credit and financial services to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and rural entrepreneurs. Microfinance, in particular, has expanded rapidly, increasing financial inclusion and empowering grassroots economic activity.
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Investment climate
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Since gaining independence, Kyrgyzstan has undertaken gradual reforms to improve its investment climate, emphasizing legal guarantees, market openness, and political stability. The country has adopted a liberal Law on Investments, which provides protections such as non-discrimination, safeguards against expropriation, and the right to repatriate profits. The creation of the Investment Promotion Agency and the Business Ombudsman office has further enhanced investor confidence.[58]
Kyrgyzstan is also a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, providing investors access to a larger regional market. It has signed over 30 bilateral investment treaties, including with the United States, China, and several EU countries.[59]
According to the World Bank Doing Business Report, Kyrgyzstan ranked 80th globally in 2020, performing especially well in areas such as starting a business (42nd), registering property (7th), and getting credit (15th).[60]
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows amounted to $1 billion in 2024.[15]
Key sectors and outlook
Promising areas for investment include hydropower, logistics, agriculture, textiles, and information technology. As part of its commitments under the Paris Agreement, Kyrgyzstan has also opened its energy sector to green and low-carbon investment.[61] Political stability in recent years has supported sustained reforms and economic diversification. The EBRD notes ongoing efforts in infrastructure, urban development, and tax modernization as key drivers of investor interest.[58]
While challenges remain — such as limited judicial independence and financial sector vulnerabilities — the overall investment climate continues to improve, reflecting Kyrgyzstan's efforts to align with global standards and attract long-term capital.
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Political stability
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Political stability in Kyrgyzstan has shown notable improvement since the early 2020s, following a period characterized by recurring unrest and rapid leadership turnover. The 2020 political upheaval, which culminated in Sadyr Japarov assuming power, marked a turning point in the country’s governance trajectory.[62] Since then, the government has undertaken measures to consolidate state authority and address regional tensions.
In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed agreements finalizing the delimitation of their shared border, and in 2025, a similar accord was reached with Tajikistan, ending long-standing disputes in the Fergana Valley.[63][64] These agreements resolved territorial claims that had periodically sparked violence and disrupted trade.
Improved political stability and the resolution of border disputes have had notable economic implications. The removal of barriers in the Fergana Valley has facilitated cross-border trade and reduced transport disruptions, while enhanced security has encouraged investment in regional infrastructure such as road links, customs facilities, and logistics hubs.[65] According to the World Bank, political predictability and reduced regional tensions have supported modest growth in foreign direct investment, particularly in mining, hydropower, and transportation.[66]
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Labour migration
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Labour migration is a significant economic factor for Kyrgyzstan, with Russia being the main destination due to shared language, cultural ties, and membership in the EAEU. Kyrgyz migrants benefit from easier access and better work opportunities compared to migrants from Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, largely because of their proficiency in Russian and the advantages provided by EAEU membership.[67] Other destinations include Türkiye, South Korea, and the UAE, though in smaller numbers.
Migrants from Kyrgyzstan mainly work in construction, trade, and services abroad, particularly in Russia, sending remittances that have historically accounted for around 30% of the country’s GDP. These inflows have played a critical role in supporting household incomes and reducing poverty. However, dependence on external labor markets exposes the country to risks from foreign policy shifts and economic downturns. Encouragingly, reliance on labor migration and remittances has been gradually declining due to domestic economic development and income diversification.[68] Remittances now account for approximately 14.6%[24] of GDP down from a peak of 33%,[25] reflecting growing internal economic resilience.
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Poverty
In 2024, the poverty rate at the $3.65-per-day threshold fell to 4.4%, down from 7.1% in 2023, supported by lower inflation and robust economic growth. However, rising urban poverty is a concern: by 2022/23, urban poverty levels had surpassed those in rural areas. According to the L2KGZ survey, 50% of respondents identified jobs as the top economic challenge, while real household incomes stagnated in the latter half of 2024.
United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) reports that approximately 30% of Kyrgyzstan’s population lives in poverty, with an additional 10% at risk of falling below the poverty line. The WFP highlights vulnerability to both internal and external shocks, including high dependence on food imports, reduced remittances due to changing labor migration policies; particularly in Russia; and climate-related challenges such as drought and glacier melt. Food prices remain around 50% higher than pre-pandemic levels, leaving 36% of the population unable to afford a nutritious diet, while 72% of households resort to coping mechanisms to cover basic needs.[69]
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See also
References
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