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2025 Atlantic hurricane season
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The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, 2025, and will end on November 30, 2025. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean (over 97%). The first system, Tropical Storm Andrea, formed on June 23, marking the latest start to an Atlantic season since 2014.
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Seasonal forecasts
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| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
Ref |
| Average (1991–2020) | 14.4 | 7.2 | 3.2 | [1] | |
| Record high activity | 30 | 15 | 7† | [2] | |
| Record low activity | 1 | 0† | 0† | [2] | |
| TSR | December 10, 2024 | 15 | 7 | 3 | [3] |
| CSU | April 3, 2025 | 17 | 9 | 4 | [4] |
| TSR | April 7, 2025 | 14 | 7 | 3 | [5] |
| UA | April 9, 2025 | 15 | 7 | 3 | [6] |
| MU | April 14, 2025 | 12–16 | 7–9 | 3–4 | [7] |
| NCSU | April 15, 2025 | 12–15 | 6–8 | 2–3 | [8] |
| TWC | April 17, 2025 | 19 | 9 | 4 | [9] |
| UPenn | April 23, 2025 | 10–18 | N/A | N/A | [10] |
| SMN | May 7, 2025 | 13–17 | 6–8 | 3–4 | [11] |
| UKMO | May 21, 2025 | 16 | 9 | 4 | [12] |
| NOAA | May 22, 2025 | 13–19 | 6–10 | 3–5 | [13] |
| TSR | May 23, 2025 | 16 | 8 | 4 | [14] |
| CSU | June 11, 2025 | 17 | 9 | 4 | [15] |
| UA | June 17, 2025 | 17 | 7 | 3 | [16] |
| TSR | July 8, 2025 | 15 | 7 | 3 | [17] |
| CSU | July 9, 2025 | 16 | 8 | 3 | [18] |
| NOAA | August 7, 2025 | 13–18 | 5–9 | 2–5 | [19] |
| Actual activity | 5 | 0 | 0 | ||
| † Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all) | |||||
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular season.
According to NOAA and CSU, the average hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained about 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes (Category 3 and higher), as well as an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units. Broadly speaking, ACE is the measure of the power of a tropical or subtropical cyclone multiplied by the length of time it existed. ACE is only calculated for full advisories on specific tropical or subtropical cyclones reaching wind speeds of 39 mph (63 km/h) or higher. NOAA typically describes a season as above-average, average, or below-average depending on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes or major hurricanes can also be considered.
Pre-season forecasts
On December 10, 2024, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) released its extended range forecast for the 2025 season, predicting an average season with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes,[nb 1] and an ACE index of 129, but noted that the forecast had higher than normal uncertainty due to environmental factors.[3]
On April 3, 2025, Colorado State University (CSU) released its forecast, which predicts an above-average hurricane season with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index of 155, citing extremely warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a weakening La Niña transitioning to a neutral phase by summer.[4] Four days later, TSR issued an updated forecast, again calling for a near-average season reducing the number of tropical storms to 14, but maintained the numbers of hurricanes at 7 and majors at 3 and ACE index of 120.[5] On April 9, the University of Arizona (UA) posted their forecast calling for a fairly normal season featuring 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 110 units.[6] On April 14, University of Missouri (MU) issued their prediction of 12–16 named storms, 7–9 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes.[7] On April 15, North Carolina State University (NCSU) predicted a season with 12–15 tropical storms, 6–8 hurricanes, and 2–3 major hurricanes.[8] On April 17, The Weather Company (TWC) released their outlook anticipating a well above average season with 19 named systems, 9 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.[9] On April 23, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their forecast of 10–18 named storms with a best guess of 14 storms.[10] On May 7, the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) issued their forecast of 13–17 tropical storms, 6–8 hurricanes, and 3–4 major hurricanes.[11] On May 21, the Met Office (UKMO) released their prediction of 16 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes as well as ACE Index of 154.[12] On May 22, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released their forecast, calling for an above-average season, expecting 13–19 named storms, 6–10 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes as well as an ACE index of 95–180.[13] On May 23, 2025, TSR updated its forecast, calling for an above-average season, expecting 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes and an ACE index of 146.[14]
Mid-season forecasts
On June 11, CSU updated its predictions, continuing to show an above average season, with 17 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 155. It is the same prediction they had in April.[15] On June 17, the University of Arizona (UA) updated their forecast, continuing to call for a season featuring 17 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, but an above-normal ACE index of 155 units—higher than predicted in April.[16] On July 8, TSR updated their forecast, calling for 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, an ACE index of 126 units,[17] with CSU updating their predictions the next day, slightly downgrading their forecast to 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of 140 units.[18] Weeks later, on August 7, NOAA updated its predictions as well, continuing to forecast an above-average season, but slightly decreasing their forecasted totals of storms. NOAA's predictions were reduced to 13–18 named storms, 5–9 hurricanes, and 2–5 major hurricanes.[19]
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Seasonal summary
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Background
Officially, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1, and will end on November 30.[21] So far, five tropical cyclones have formed, all of which intensified into named storms.
This season's ACE index, as of 03:00 UTC on August 13, is approximately 5.1 units, as officially calculated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).[22] This number represents sum of the squares of the maximum sustained wind speed (knots) for all named storms while they are at least tropical storm intensity, divided by 10,000.
Early activity
Tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic Ocean commenced with the formation of Tropical Storm Andrea on June 23,[23] three weeks after the official start of the season, and three days later than the average formation date of the basin's first named storm.[24] This was the latest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since 2014, when Hurricane Arthur formed on July 1.[25] Andrea remained over the open waters of the central Atlantic.[23] The next system, Tropical Storm Barry, formed on June 28 in the Bay of Campeche[26] and made landfall near Tampico the following day.[27]
Early in the season, tropical cyclogenesis was hindered by multiple factors. Sprawling Atlantic high pressure directed early-season tropical waves coming off the coast of West Africa farther south than usual, toward Central America, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Further, a persistent flow of dry Saharan dust was present around the Atlantic high.[28] Another factor contributing to limited early storm formation in the basin was an interaction between Kelvin and Rossby waves over the Americas.[29]
The third storm of the season, Tropical Storm Chantal, formed off the Atlantic coast of the southeastern United States on July 4.[30] Chantal made landfall two days later in South Carolina.[31] The first three storms of the year were each short-lived, with a combined duration as named storms of only 2.5 days, well below the average (1991-2020) value through August 2 of 9.1 days.[32]
Peak season activity
After a nearly month-long lull in activity, Tropical Storm Dexter formed off the North Carolina coast on August 4.[32] Next, Tropical Storm Erin formed near Cabo Verde on August 11.[33]
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Systems
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Tropical Storm Andrea
On June 22, the NHC began monitoring a trough of low pressure east-southeast of Bermuda over the central Atlantic with some potential for tropical development.[34] The low pressure was located on a decaying stationary front. Deep convection and organization increased, with a tropical depression forming at 06:00 UTC on June 23 about 490 miles (790 km) east of Bermuda. Andrea reached peak intensity of 40 mph (64 km/h) at 12:00 UTC on June 23. Andrea existed in a high-pressure environment, leading to it having an above average central pressure, estimated through the Knaff-Zehr-Courtney relationship at 1014 millibars.[23] Deep convection collapsed by 15:00 UTC on June 24.[35] By 18:00 UTC on June 24, Andrea degenerated to an extratropical low and completely dissipated by 18:00 UTC on June 25.[23]
Tropical Storm Barry
On June 27, a broad area of low pressure formed over the Yucatán Peninsula.[36] As the disturbance emerged into the Bay of Campeche the following morning, a well-defined surface circulation began developing; also, its shower and thunderstorm activity began to show signs of organization.[37] This trend continued, resulting in the formation of Tropical Depression Two that afternoon.[26] The system became Tropical Storm Barry on the morning of June 29, about 90 mi (140 km) east-southeast of Tuxpan, Veracruz.[38] The storm moved northwestward, steered by a stationary low-to-mid level ridge in the central Gulf. Its intensity increased little during this time, due to wind shear.[39] That same evening, Barry weakened to a tropical depression, and made landfall south of Tampico, Tamaulipas, with sustained winds of 35 mph (55 km/h).[40] Inland, Barry's low-level circulation soon dissipated over the mountains of northeastern Mexico.[41]
The tropical wave that spawned Barry caused flooding and damage in Quintana Roo. Water levels reached from 16 to 39 in (40 to 100 cm) in some areas, while a maximum of 428 mm (16.9 in) of rain fell. Total damages from the flooding are estimated at Mex$35 million (US$1.87 million).[42] In neighboring Chiapas, heavy rains triggered landslides, leaving communication links to several communities cut off.[43][44] Heavy rain was also reported in Belize, where severe damage was reported to infrastructure with numerous buildings collapsing in rural communities. Flooding affected more than 20 communities as water levels rose at least 50 cm (19.7 in).[45][46] In Veracruz, Veracruz, two people drowned after rough surf swept them out to sea in their car.[47] Two young people drowned in Santa María del Río, San Luis Potosí, when the motorcycle on which they were riding was swept away by the current of a flooded river.[48] Additionally, one person in Matamoros, Tamaulipas, drowned after his car was swept away by an overflowing sewage canal.[49]
Tropical Storm Chantal
On June 29, the NHC began monitoring a decaying frontal boundary along the southeastern United States coastline for potential tropical development.[50] Early on July 4, a weak area of low pressure developed along the boundary, off the coast of northeastern Florida.[51] Wind shear in the region was weak at the time, and sea surface temperatures were seasonably warm, around 82 to 84 °F (28 to 29 °C).[52] That afternoon, the circulation associated with the low became well-defined and was designated Tropical Depression Three by the NHC.[53] The system became better organized overnight, showing a significant burst of deep convection on GOES-19 infrared imagery,[54] and became Tropical Storm Chantal at 12:00 UTC on July 5.[55] That afternoon, the storm maintained a concentrated area of deep convection over the eastern half of its dense cloud cover, while moving northward off the coast of the Carolinas against moderate wind shear.[56] Early on July 6, Chantal briefly intensified to 60 mph (95 km/h), and turned north-northwestward, before making landfall near Litchfield Beach, South Carolina, at approximately 08:00 UTC.[57] The storm moved northward inland, weakening to tropical depression strength by late morning.[58] A day later, Chantal transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone over northern Virginia.[59]
In Florida, the precursor to Chantal prompted the cancellation of several Fourth of July events due to rain.[60] As Chantal moved ashore in South Carolina, highest reported wind gust reached 56 mph (90 km/h) in Myrtle Beach. In North Carolina, maximum totals of 7–8 in (180–200 mm) of rain fell.[61] Flooding and power outages were reported.[62] In Orange County, a state of emergency was declared due to flash flooding.[63] Over 50 water rescues were conducted across the county.[64] An EF1 tornado damaged two airplanes and two hangars at Raleigh Executive Jetport.[65] In Durham County, North Carolina, rescue crews performed over eighty rescue missions by boat; the Eno River rose 22 feet (6.7 m) within a four hour-period.[66][64] The Haw River rose to 32.5 feet (9.91 meters), the second-highest river stage ever recorded.[64][67] Four people were found deceased in cars as a result of flooding, two in Alamance County, North Carolina one in Chatham County, North Carolina, and one in Orange County, North Carolina. Additionally, two boaters were found dead after going missing while boating on Jordan Lake. In all, six people have been confirmed dead in the state.[68]
Tropical Storm Dexter
On August 2, a non-tropical area of low pressure formed off the coast of North Carolina.[69] By the afternoon of August 3, the low was producing gale-force winds, and its associated shower and thunderstorm activity was increasing.[70] Later that same day, the disturbance became separated from the nearby frontal zone and acquired tropical characteristics, becoming Tropical Storm Dexter.[71] Dexter formed about 300 mi (480 km) west-northwest of Bermuda; its initial movement was toward the east-northeast at around 12 mph (19 km/h).[72] After formation, additional strengthening was, for a time, stifled by strong westerly wind shear,[73] and the storm appeared to be weakening the next morning.[74] Despite the shear, which increased to 40–45 mph (65–75 km/h) by the morning of August 6, Dexter continued to display convection, and managed to strengthen to 50 mph (85 km/h) due to the influence of an upper-level trough.[75] Dexter completed its extratropical transition the following day, upon merging with a mid- to upper-level trough.[76]
Tropical Storm Erin
On August 9, a tropical wave moved off the west coast of Africa.[77] As the disturbance moved out to sea and toward the Cape Verde Islands the following day, a well-defined low formed, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with sustained near gale-force winds.[78] On the morning of August 11, the disturbance organized into Tropical Storm Erin, as its sustained winds increased to about 45 mph (75 km/h).[79] Erin moved quickly to the west after forming, where it encountered a poor thermodynamic environment which inhibited additional development.[80] Erin was unable to become noticeably better organized on August 12 and deep convection decreased during the morning.[81] On August 13, Erin started to become better organized, with convection becoming more concentrated near its center. This yielded to some slight strengthening, and Erin's sustained winds were upped to 50 mph (80 km/h).[citation needed]
In Cape Verde, there were nine flooding-related deaths on São Vicente.[82] Between 12:00 am and 5:00 am local time on August 11, the island recorded 7.57 in (192.3 mm) of rainfall. On account of widespread property and infrastructure damage from the storm, the Cape Verde government issued a disaster declaration for São Vicente and Santo Antão.[83]
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Storm names
The following list of names is being used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2025.[84] This is the same list used in the 2019 season, with the exception of Dexter, which replaced Dorian.[85] The name Dexter was used for the first time this season.
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Season effects
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This is a table of all of the storms that have formed in the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, intensities, areas affected, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all of the damage figures are in 2025 USD.
| Saffir–Simpson scale | ||||||
| TD | TS | C1 | C2 | C3 | C4 | C5 |
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Notes
- Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher—1-minute sustained winds higher than 110 miles per hour (178 km/h)—on the Saffir–Simpson scale are described as major hurricanes.[20]
See also
- Weather of 2025
- Tropical cyclones in 2025
- 2025 Pacific hurricane season
- 2025 Pacific typhoon season
- 2025 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
- South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2024–25, 2025–26
- Australian region cyclone seasons: 2024–25, 2025–26
- South Pacific cyclone seasons: 2024–25, 2025–26
References
External links
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