2012 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota

The 2012 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the U.S. representative from the state's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election and an election to the U.S. Senate. A primary election was held on June 12, 2012;^[1] a candidate must receive at least 300 votes to appear on the general election ballot in November.^[2]

2012 United States House of Representatives Election in North Dakota

← 2010 November 6, 2012 2014 →

Nominee Kevin Cramer Pam Gulleson Party Republican Democratic–NPL Popular vote 173,433 131,869 Percentage 54.9% 41.7%

County results Cramer:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Gulleson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. Representative before election Rick Berg Republican Elected U.S. Representative Kevin Cramer Republican

Rick Berg, a member of the Republican Party who was first elected to represent the at-large district in 2010, had announced that he would not seek re-election and would instead run for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by Kent Conrad.^[3] Republican Kevin Cramer won the open House seat.

Republican primary

The North Dakota Republican Party endorsed Public Service Commissioner Brian Kalk at their state convention, though general election ballot access is determined by a statewide primary election held on June 12, 2012. In contrast to state political tradition, fellow Public Service Commissioner Kevin Cramer did not seek the party endorsement, instead attempting to defeat Kalk on the June primary ballot.

Candidates

Nominee

• Kevin Cramer, Public Service Commissioner^[4]

Eliminated in primary

• Brian Kalk, Public Service Commissioner and state party endorsed candidate^[5]

Withdrew

• Shane Goettle, U.S. Senator John Hoeven's state director^[6]
• Bette Grande, state representative^[7]
• DuWayne Hendrickson, perennial candidate^[8]
• Kim Koppelman, state representative^[9]

Declined

• Rick Berg, incumbent U.S. Representative^[3]
• Al Carlson, state House Majority Leader^[10][11]
• Tony Clark, Public Service Commissioner^[12]
• Cory Fong, North Dakota State Tax Commissioner^[13]
• Tony Grindberg, state senator^[14]
• Robert Harms, Tea Party activist and former treasurer of the North Dakota Republican Party^[11]
• Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota State Treasurer^[15]

Debate

The North Dakota Republican Party held a candidates' debate on December 14 at the campus of Valley City State University. All five GOP candidates declared at the time—Cramer, Goettle, Grande, Kalk, and Koppelman—participated.^[16]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kevin Cramer	Brian Kalk	Undecided
Mason Dixon[17]	June 4–6, 2012	625	± 4%	60%	21%	19%
Forum Communications Co.[18]	May 3–8, 2012	500	± 4.3%	38%	25%	27%

Results

Republican primary results^[19]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kevin Cramer	54,405	54.4
	Republican	Brian Kalk	45,415	45.5
	n/a	Write-ins	113	0.1
Total votes			99,933	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Pam Gulleson, former state representative^[20]

Declined

• Ben Vig, former state representative^[21]

Results

Democratic primary results^[19]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic–NPL	Pam Gulleson	51,750	99.9
	Democratic–NPL	Write-in	74	0.1
Total votes			51,824	100.0

Libertarian nomination

The Libertarian Party of North Dakota has selected small business owner Eric Olson as their nominee at a state meeting.^[22]

General election

Endorsements

Kevin Cramer (R)

Organizations

• National Republican Congressional Committee "Young Guns" Program^[23]

Pam Gulleson (D)

Organizations

• Blue Dog Coalition^[24]
• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program^[25]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kevin Cramer (R)	Pam Gulleson (D)	Eric Olson (L)	Undecided
Mason Dixon[26]	October 26–28, 2012	625	± 4.0%	50%	40%	2%	8%
Forum/Essman[27]	October 12–15, 2012	500	± 4%	52%	32%	1%	15%
Mason-Dixon[28]	October 3–5, 2012	625	± 4%	49%	37%	2%	12%
Mason Dixon[29]	June 4–6, 2012	625	± 4%	49%	35%	4%	12%
Forum Communications Co.[18]	May 3–8, 2012	500	± 4.3%	61%	23%	–	15%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[30]	Likely R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[31]	Safe R	November 2, 2012
Roll Call[32]	Likely R	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33]	Likely R	November 5, 2012
NY Times[34]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
RCP[35]	Likely R	November 4, 2012
The Hill[36]	Likely R	November 4, 2012

Results

North Dakota's at-large congressional district, 2012^[19]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Kevin Cramer	173,585	54.89%	+0.15%
	Democratic–NPL	Pam Gulleson	131,870	41.70%	−3.23%
	Libertarian	Eric Olson	10,261	3.24%	N/A
	n/a	Write-ins	508	0.16%	−0.17%
Total votes			316,224	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Barnes (largest city: Valley City)
• Grand Forks (largest city: Grand Forks)
• Name (Largest city: Stanley)
• Ramsey (Largest city: Devils Lake)
• Towner (Largest city: Cando)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Richland (largest city: Wahpeton)