2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky

The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the six U.S. representatives from the state of Kentucky, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election. Primary elections were held on May 22, 2012.^[1]

2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky

← 2010 November 6, 2012 2014 →
All 6 Kentucky seats to the United States House of Representatives
Majority party Minority party   Party Republican Democratic Last election 4 2 Seats won 5 1 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 1,027,582 684,744 Percentage 58.87% 39.23% Swing 3.48% 1.84%
District results County results Republican   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90%   90–100% Democratic   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%

Overview

United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky, 2012[2]
Party		Votes	Percentage	Seats	+/–
	Republican	1,027,582	58.87%	5	+1
	Democratic	684,744	39.23%	1	-1
	Libertarian	4,914	0.28%	0	—
	Others	28,137	1.61%	0	—
Totals		1,745,377	100.00%	6	—

Redistricting

Redistricting legislation was passed by both houses of the Kentucky General Assembly and signed into law by Governor Steve Beshear on February 10, 2012.^[3]

District 1

2012 Kentucky's 1st congressional district election

← 2010 2014 →

Nominee Ed Whitfield Charles Hatchett Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 199,956 87,199 Percentage 69.6% 30.4%

County results Whitfield:      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Hatchett:      50–60%

U.S. Representative before election Ed Whitfield Republican Elected U.S. Representative Ed Whitfield Republican

See also: Kentucky's 1st congressional district

Republican Ed Whitfield, who had represented the 1st district since 1995, ran for re-election.^[4] In redistricting, the 1st district was made slightly more competitive, but continues to strongly favor Republicans.^[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Ed Whitfield, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Charles Kendall Hatchett, real estate broker and nominee for this seat in 2010

Eliminated in primary

• James Buckmaster

Declined

• Brent Yonts, state representative^[6]

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Charles Kendall Hatchett	19,127	59.1
	Democratic	James Buckmaster	13,239	40.9
Total votes			32,366	100.0

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[7]	Safe R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[8]	Safe R	November 2, 2012
Roll Call[9]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]	Safe R	November 5, 2012
NY Times[11]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
RCP[12]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
The Hill[13]	Safe R	November 4, 2012

Results

Kentucky's 1st congressional district, 2012 ^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Ed Whitfield (incumbent)	199,956	69.6
	Democratic	Charles Kendall Hatchett	87,199	30.4
Total votes			287,155	100.0
	Republican hold

District 2

2012 Kentucky's 2nd congressional district election

← 2010 2014 →

Nominee Brett Guthrie David Williams Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 181,508 89,541 Percentage 64.3% 31.7%

County results Guthrie:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. Representative before election Brett Guthrie Republican Elected U.S. Representative Brett Guthrie Republican

See also: Kentucky's 2nd congressional district

Republican Brett Guthrie, who had represented the 2nd district since 2009, ran for re-election.^[14] In redistricting, the 2nd district was made slightly more favourable to Republicans.^[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Brett Guthrie, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• David Lynn Williams, perennial candidate^[15]

Declined

• Elaine Walker, former Secretary of State of Kentucky^[6]

Libertarian primary

Craig Astor ran as a Libertarian:^[16]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[8]	Safe R	November 2, 2012
Roll Call[9]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]	Safe R	November 5, 2012
NY Times[11]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
RCP[12]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
The Hill[13]	Safe R	November 4, 2012

Results

Kentucky's 2nd congressional district, 2012 ^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Brett Guthrie (incumbent)	181,508	64.3
	Democratic	David Lynn Williams	89,541	31.7
	Independent	Andrew R. Beacham	6,304	2.2
	Libertarian	Craig R. Astor	4,914	1.8
Total votes			282,267	100.0
	Republican hold

District 3

2012 Kentucky's 3rd congressional district election

← 2010 2014 →

Nominee John Yarmuth Brooks Wicker Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 206,385 111,452 Percentage 64.0% 34.5%

County result Yarmuth:      60–70%

U.S. Representative before election John Yarmuth Democratic Elected U.S. Representative John Yarmuth Democratic

See also: Kentucky's 3rd congressional district

Democrat John Yarmuth, who had represented the 3rd district since 2007, ran for re-election.^[17] The 3rd district was made more favorable to Democrats in redistricting.^[5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• John Yarmuth, incumbent U.S. Representative

Eliminated in primary

• Burrel Charles Farnsley, perennial candidate^[18]

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Yarmuth (incumbent)	43,635	86.7
	Democratic	Burrel Charles Farnsley	6,716	13.3
Total votes			50,351	100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Brooks Wicker, financial advisor and candidate for this seat in 2010^[19][18]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[7]	Safe D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[8]	Safe D	November 2, 2012
Roll Call[9]	Safe D	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]	Safe D	November 5, 2012
NY Times[11]	Safe D	November 4, 2012
RCP[12]	Safe D	November 4, 2012
The Hill[13]	Safe D	November 4, 2012

Results

Kentucky's 3rd congressional district, 2012 ^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Yarmuth (incumbent)	206,385	64.0
	Republican	Brooks Wicker	111,452	34.5
	Independent	Robert L. DeVore, Jr.	4,819	1.5
Total votes			322,656	100.0
	Democratic hold

District 4

2012 Kentucky's 4th congressional district elections

← 2010 2014 →

Nominee Thomas Massie Bill Adkins Party Republican Democratic General election popular vote 186,036 62.1% 104,734 35.0% Special election popular vote 174,092 59.9% 106,598 36.7%

Regular election county results Special election county results Massie:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Adkins:      40–50%      50–60%      70–80%

U.S. Representative before election Geoff Davis Republican Elected U.S. Representative Thomas Massie Republican

See also: Kentucky's 4th congressional district

Republican Geoff Davis, who had represented 4th district from 2005 to 2012, resigned due to family health issues.^[14] In redistricting, the 4th district was made more favorable to Republicans.^[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Thomas Massie, Lewis County judge-executive^[14]

Eliminated in primary

• Walter Christian Schumm, building contractor
• Marcus Carey, lawyer
• Gary Moore, Boone County judge-executive^[20]
• Brian Oerther, teacher
• Alecia Webb-Edgington, state representative
• Tom Wurtz, business consultant

Declined

• Hunter Bates, former chief of staff to Senator Mitch McConnell^[21]
• Kenny Brown, Boone County Clerk^[22]
• Ben Dusing, lawyer and former assistant U.S. Attorney^[23]
• Trey Grayson, former Secretary of State of Kentucky^[24]
• Adam Koenig, state representative^[25]
• K. Lance Lucas, lawyer and son of former Democratic U.S. Representative Ken Lucas^[20]
• Rick Robinson, aide to former senator Jim Bunning^[22]
• Kevin Sell, businessman^[26]
• Katie Stine, President Pro Tempore of the Kentucky Senate^[20][27][28]
• Damon Thayer, state senator^[28]

Primary results

County results

Map legend

•   Massie—50–60%
•   Massie—40–50%
•   Massie—30–40%
•   Webb-Edgington—40–50%

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Thomas Massie	19,689	44.8
	Republican	Alecia Webb-Edgington	12,557	28.6
	Republican	Gary Moore	6,521	14.8
	Republican	Walter Christian Schumm	3,514	8.0
	Republican	Marc Carey	783	1.8
	Republican	Tom Wurtz	598	1.4
	Republican	Brian D. Oerther	257	0.6
Total votes			43,919	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Bill Adkins, lawyer and chair of the Grant County Democratic Party^[29]

Eliminated in primary

• Greg Frank, military veteran

Declined

• Kenny French, former Gallatin County Judge-Executive^[24]
• Patrick Hughes, attorney^[30]
• Linda Klembara, president of the Kentucky Women's Network^[27][30]
• Darrell Link, Grant County Judge-Executive^[24]
• Ken Rechtin, Campbell County Commissioner^[27][30]
• Nathan Smith, vice chairman of the Kentucky Democratic Party^[27][24][30]
• Diane Whalen, Mayor of Florence^[31]

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Bill Adkins	17,209	68.6
	Democratic	Greg Frank	7,869	31.4
Total votes			25,078	100.0

Special election

Results

Kentucky's 4th congressional district special election, 2012^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Thomas Massie	174,092	59.9
	Democratic	Bill Adkins	106,598	36.7
	Independent	David Lewis	9,987	3.4
Total votes			290,677	100.0
	Republican hold

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[8]	Safe R	November 2, 2012
Roll Call[9]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]	Safe R	November 5, 2012
NY Times[11]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
RCP[12]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
The Hill[13]	Safe R	November 4, 2012

Results

Kentucky's 4th congressional district regular election, 2012 ^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Thomas Massie	186,036	62.1
	Democratic	Bill Adkins	104,734	35.0
	Independent	David Lewis	8,674	2.9
Total votes			299,444	100.0
	Republican hold

District 5

2012 Kentucky's 5th congressional district election

← 2010 2014 →

Nominee Hal Rogers Kenneth Stepp Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 195,408 55,447 Percentage 77.9% 22.1%

County results Rogers:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Stepp:      50–60%

U.S. Representative before election Hal Rogers Republican Elected U.S. Representative Hal Rogers Republican

See also: Kentucky's 5th congressional district

Republican Hal Rogers, who had represented the 5th district since 1981, ran for re-election.^[14] The 5th district was made slightly more competitive in redistricting.^[5]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Hal Rogers, incumbent U.S. Representative

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Kenneth Stepp, lawyer^[33]

Eliminated in primary

• Michael Ackerman^[34]

Primary results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Kenneth S. Stepp	12,275	52.7
	Democratic	Michael Ackerman	11,016	47.3
Total votes			23,291	100.0

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Safe R	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[8]	Safe R	November 2, 2012
Roll Call[9]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]	Safe R	November 5, 2012
NY Times[11]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
RCP[12]	Safe R	November 4, 2012
The Hill[13]	Safe R	November 4, 2012

Results

Kentucky's 5th congressional district, 2012 ^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Hal Rogers (incumbent)	195,408	77.9
	Democratic	Kenneth S. Stepp	55,447	22.1
Total votes			250,855	100.0
	Republican hold

District 6

2012 Kentucky's 6th congressional district election

← 2010 2014 →

Nominee Andy Barr Ben Chandler Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 153,222 141,438 Percentage 50.6% 46.7%

County results Barr:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70% Chandler:      50–60%

U.S. Representative before election Ben Chandler Democratic Elected U.S. Representative Andy Barr Republican

See also: Kentucky's 6th congressional district

Democrat Ben Chandler, who had represented the 6th district since 2004, ran for re-election.^[14] In redistricting, the 6th district was modified with the effect that, had the 2008 presidential election been held under the new boundaries, Democratic nominee Barack Obama would have received a share of the vote 1.5 percentage points greater than that which he achieved under the former boundaries.^[5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Ben Chandler, incumbent U.S. Representative

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Andy Barr, attorney and nominee for this seat in 2010^[35][18][36]

Eliminated in primary

• Patrick J. Kelly II^[14]
• Curtis Kenimer^[14][15]

Primary results

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Andy Barr	20,104	82.8
	Republican	Patrick J. Kelly, II	2,823	11.6
	Republican	Curtis Kenimer	1,354	5.6
Total votes			24,281	100.0

General election

Randolph S. Vance ran as a write-in candidate.^[37]

Endorsements

Ben Chandler (D)

Organizations

• Blue Dog Coalition^[38]
• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Frontline" Program^[39]

Andy Barr (R)

Organizations

• National Republican Congressional Committee "Young Guns" Program^[40]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ben Chandler (D)	Andy Barr (R)	Randolph Vance (I)	Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)[41]	September 30–October 1, 2012	400	± %	49%	46%	—	5%
Mellman (D-Chandler)[42]	September 10–13, 2012	400	± 4.9%	51%	37%	3%	9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)[43]	June 24–26, 2012	400	± 4.9%	47%	42%	—	13%
Mellman (D-Chandler)[44]	March 26–28, 2012	400	± 4.9%	54%	30%	—	16%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)[45]	February 20–21, 2012	400	± 4.9%	49%	42%	—	9%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[46]	Tossup	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg[8]	Tossup	November 2, 2012
Roll Call[9]	Tossup	November 4, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]	Lean R (flip)	November 5, 2012
NY Times[11]	Lean D	November 4, 2012
RCP[12]	Tossup	November 4, 2012
The Hill[13]	Tossup	November 4, 2012

Results

Kentucky's 6th congressional district, 2012^[2]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Andy Barr	153,222	50.6
	Democratic	Ben Chandler (incumbent)	141,438	46.7
	Independent	Randolph Vance	8,340	2.7
Total votes			303,000	100.0
	Republican gain from Democratic