2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas

The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas

← 2008 November 4, 2014 2020 →

Nominee Tom Cotton Mark Pryor Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 478,819 334,174 Percentage 56.50% 39.43%

County results Congressional district results Cotton:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Pryor:      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election Mark Pryor Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Tom Cotton Republican

This was one of the seven Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Mitt Romney won in the 2012 presidential election. After facing only Green Party opposition in 2008, incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor sought re-election to a third term in 2014. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 56% to 39%.^[1] The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed.^[2]

This is the last time a Senator from Arkansas lost re-election. Since Cotton took office in 2015, Republicans have held both of Arkansas' Senate seats and the state's entire congressional delegation, both of which had not happened since 1877. Pryor drew many comparisons to Blanche Lincoln, also a Democratic senator from Arkansas who was ultimately unseated in 2010, with Pryor receiving a similar fate.

Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and remained so until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.

Background

Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.^[3] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were re-elected.^[4]

Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.^[5] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.^[6]

The election was originally thought to be extremely close, which was backed up by polling. Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points.^[7]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mark Pryor, incumbent U.S. Senator^[8]

Declined

• Bobby Tullis, former state representative^[9]

Results

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Mark Pryor (incumbent)	Unopposed
Total votes			—	100.0

Republican primary

Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Candidates

Nominee

• Tom Cotton, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 4th congressional district (2013–2015)^[10]

Declined

• Rick Crawford, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 1st congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election)^[11]
• Mark Darr, Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas (2011–2014)^[12]
• Timothy Griffin, U.S. Representative for Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (2011–2015) (running for Lieutenant Governor)^[13]
• Steve Womack, U.S. Representative Arkansas's 3rd congressional district (2011–present) (running for re-election)^[14]

Results

Republican primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tom Cotton	Unopposed
Total votes			—	100.0

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

• Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive^[15]
• Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010^[15]

General election

Endorsements

Tom Cotton (R)

• Club for Growth^[16]
• Tim Griffin, U.S. Representative^[14]
• Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator^[17]
• Allen West, former U.S. Representative^[18]
• Steve Womack, U.S. Representative^[14]
• Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania and candidate for President of the United States in 2012^[19]
• Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and 2012 Republican presidential candidate^[20]

Mark Pryor (D)

• Arkansas Education Association^[21]
• Bill Clinton, 42nd President of the United States

Fundraising

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on Hand
Mark Pryor (D)	$10,428,246	$12,034,784	$364,653
Tom Cotton (R)	$7,557,443	$6,411,763	$1,885,435

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 13, 2014

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[22]	Tossup	November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23]	Likely R (flip)	November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[24]	Lean R (flip)	November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[25]	Lean R (flip)	November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Pryor (D)	Tom Cotton (R)	Other	Undecided
Basswood Research[26]	March 16–17, 2013	600	± 4%	35%	43%	—	22%
Basswood Research[27]	June 22–23, 2013	600	± 4%	41%	40%	—	19%
Clark Research[28]	July 23–27, 2013	729	± 4%	43%	35%	—	21%
On Message Inc.[29]	July 29–30, 2013	600	± 4%	42%	44%	—	14%
Harper Polling[30]	August 4–5, 2013	587	± 4.04%	41%	43%	—	16%
Global Strategy Group[31]	August 26–29, 2013	501	± ?%	47%	40%	—	13%
Harper Polling[32]	September 24–26, 2013	622	± 3.93%	45%	42%	—	13%
Talk Business/Hendrix College[33]	October 8, 2013	603	± 4%	42%	41%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling[34]	October 14–15, 2013	955	± 3.2%	44%	41%	—	15%
University of Arkansas[35]	October 10–17, 2013	800	± 3.5%	34%	32%	—	34%
Impact Management Group[36]	October 24, 2013	911	± 3.2%	41%	42%	—	18%
Polling Company/WomanTrend[37]	December 6–7, 2013	400	± 4.9%	41%	48%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling[38]	December 13–15, 2013	1,004	± 3.1%	44%	44%	—	12%
Rasmussen Reports[39]	February 4–5, 2014	500	± 4.5%	40%	45%	5%	10%
Harper Polling[40]	January 26–27, 2014	533	± 4.24%	36%	42%	—	22%
Impact Management Group[41]	February 10, 2014	1,202	± 2.83%	42%	46%	—	13%
Hickman Analytics[42]	February 17–20, 2014	400	± 4.9%	39%	41%	8%	12%
				42%	51%	—	8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[43]	March 27 – April 2, 2014	600	± 4%	48%	45%	—	7%
Talk Business/Hendrix College[44]	April 3–4, 2014	1,068	± 3%	46%	43%	4%[45]	8%
Opinion Research Associates[46]	April 1–8, 2014	400	± 5%	48%	38%	—	8%
Harper Polling[47]	April 9–10, 2014	522	± 4.29%	39%	39%	—	22%
New York Times/Kaiser Family[48]	April 8–15, 2014	857	± 4%	46%	36%	4%	15%
Magellan Strategies[49]	April 14–15, 2014	857	± 3.35%	43%	46%	4%	7%
Public Policy Polling[50]	April 25–27, 2014	840	± 3.4%	43%	42%	—	16%
NBC News/Marist[51]	April 30 – May 4, 2014	876	± 3.3%	51%	40%	1%	3%
Rasmussen Reports[39]	May 27–28, 2014	750	± 4%	43%	47%	4%	6%
Public Opinion Strategies[52]	May 27–29, 2014	500	± 4.39%	41%	46%	—	13%
Fabrizio Lee[53]	June 3–5, 2014	600	± 4%	43%	51%	—	5%
Magellan Strategies[54]	June 4–5, 2014	755	± 3.57%	45%	49%	2%	4%
Impact Management Group[55]	June 29, 2014	1290	± 2.72%	43%	47%	—	10%
Gravis Marketing[56]	July 7–8, 2014	987	± 3%	44%	51%	5%[57]	—
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[58]	July 5–24, 2014	1,628	± 2.9%	45%	49%	1%	5%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[59]	July 20–24, 2014	600	± 4%	48%	46%	—	6%
Talk Business/Hendrix College[60]	July 22–25, 2014	1,780	± 2.3%	42%	44%	7%[61]	7%
Public Policy Polling[62]	August 1–3, 2014	1,066	± 3%	39%	41%	7%[61]	14%
				41%	43%	—	16%
Opinion Research Associates[63]	August 6–14, 2014	414	± 4.9%	46%	41%	4%[45]	9%
Rasmussen Reports[39]	August 25–26, 2014	750	± 4%	44%	43%	6%	6%
ccAdvertising[64]	August 31 – September 1, 2014	1,735	± ?	29%	37%	—	34%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[65]	August 18 – September 2, 2014	1,572	± 3%	39%	43%	2%	16%
CNN/ORC International[66]	August 28 – September 2, 2014	523 LV	± 4.5%	47%	49%	—	4%
		839 RV	± 3.5%	47%	38%	—	14%
Hickman Analytics[67]	August 26 – September 3, 2014	700	± 3.7%	45%	43%	—	12%
NBC News/Marist[68]	September 2–4, 2014	639 LV	± 3.9%	40%	45%	6%[69]	9%
		1,068 RV	± 3%	41%	41%	8%[70]	11%
Answers Unlimited[71]	September 7–9, 2014	600	± 3.5%	46%	42%	4%[45]	8%
Gravis Marketing[72]	September 8–11, 2014	902	± 4%	43%	47%	2%[57]	8%
Hickman Analytics[73]	September 13–18, 2014	801	± 3.5%	46%	43%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling[74]	September 18–21, 2014	1,453	± 2.6%	38%	43%	6%[75]	13%
				39%	45%	—	15%
Suffolk[76]	September 20–23, 2014	500	± 4.4%	45%	43%	5%[75]	7%
Rasmussen Reports[39]	September 24–25, 2014	750	± 4%	40%	47%	5%	8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[77]	September 20 – October 1, 2014	1,991	± 2%	41%	45%	1%	13%
Opinion Research Associates[78]	October 1–5, 2014	400	± 5%	45%	42%	5%	9%
Fox News[79]	October 4–7, 2014	707	± 3.5%	39%	46%	5%[80]	11%
Rasmussen Reports[39]	October 13–15, 2014	940	± 3%	44%	47%	4%	5%
Talk Business/Hendrix[81]	October 15–16, 2014	2,075	± 2.2%	40.5%	49%	5%[82]	6%
NBC News/Marist[83]	October 19–23, 2014	621	± 3.9%	43%	45%	6%[69]	7%
		971	± 3.1%	43%	42%	6%[69]	9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[77]	October 16–23, 2014	1,567	± 4%	42%	47%	1%	10%
Opinion Research Associates[84]	October 25–26, 2014	401	± 5%	45%	44%	2%[85]	10%
Issues & Answers Network[86]	October 21–27, 2014	568	± 4.1%	36%	49%	—	15%
Rasmussen Reports[39]	October 27–29, 2014	967	± 3%	44%	51%	4%	2%
Public Policy Polling[87]	October 30 – November 1, 2014	1,092	± 3%	41%	49%	4%[88]	5%
				45%	51%	—	4%
Opinion Research Associates[89]	October 30 – November 1, 2014	400	± 5%	45%	43%	4%[88]	8%

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2014^[90]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Tom Cotton	478,819	56.50%	N/A
	Democratic	Mark Pryor (incumbent)	334,174	39.43%	−40.10%
	Libertarian	Nathan LaFrance	17,210	2.03%	N/A
	Green	Mark Swaney	16,797	1.98%	−18.49%
	Write-in		505	0.06%	N/A
Total votes			847,505	100.00%	N/A
	Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Craighead (Largest city: Jonesboro)
• Cross (Largest city: Wynne)
• Greene (Largest city: Paragould)
• Hot Spring (Largest city: Malvern)
• Izard (Largest city: Horseshoe Bend)
• Arkansas (Largest city: Stuttgart)
• Calhoun (Largest city: Hampton)
• Cleburne (Largest city: Heber Springs)
• Cleveland (Largest city: Rison)
• Columbia (Largest city: Magnolia)
• Conway (Largest city: Morrilton)
• Faulkner (Largest city: Conway)
• Franklin (Largest city: Ozark)
• Fulton (Largest city: Salem)
• Garland (Largest city: Hot Springs)
• Grant (Largest city: Sheridan)
• Independence (Largest city: Batesville)
• Johnson (Largest city: Clarksville)
• Logan (Largest city: Booneville)
• Lonoke (Largest city: Cabot)
• Madison (Largest city: Huntsville)
• Marion (Largest city: Bull Shoals)
• Miller (Largest city: Texarkana)
• Montgomery (Largest city: Mount Ida)
• Perry (Largest city: Perryville)
• Pike (Largest city: Glenwood)
• Pope (Largest city: Russellville)
• Prairie (Largest city: Des Arc)
• Saline (Largest city: Benton)
• Scott (Largest city: Waldron)
• Sevier (Largest city: De Queen)
• Sharp (Largest city: Cherokee Village)
• Stone (Largest city: Mountain View)
• Union (Largest city: El Dorado)
• Van Buren (Largest city: Clinton)
• Washington (Largest city: Fayetteville)
• White (Largest city: Searcy)
• Yell (Largest city: Dardanelle)
• Baxter (Largest city: Mountain Home)
• Boone (Largest city: Harrison)
• Carroll (Largest city: Berryville)
• Newton (Largest city: Jasper)
• Polk (Largest city: Mena)
• Benton (Largest city: Rogers)
• Crawford (Largest city: Van Buren)
• Searcy (Largest city: Marshall)
• Sebastian (Largest city: Fort Smith)
• Clay (largest city: Piggott)
• Hempstead (largest city: Hope)
• Lawrence (largest city: Walnut Ridge)
• Poinsett (largest city: Harrisburg)
• Randolph (largest city: Pocahontas)
• Drew (Largest city: Monticello)
• Ashley (Largest city: Crossett)
• Lafayette (Largest city: Stamps)
• Nevada (Largest city: Prescott)
• Dallas (Largest city: Fordyce)
• Bradley (largest city: Warren)
• Jackson (largest city: Newport)
• Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
• Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
• Howard (Largest city: Nashville)

By congressional district

Cotton won all four congressional districts.^[91]

District	Pryor	Cotton	Representative
1st	40%	56%	Rick Crawford
2nd	45%	51%	French Hill
3rd	32%	63%	Steve Womack
4th	40%	56%	Bruce Westerman

See also

• United States portal
• Politics portal

• 2014 Arkansas gubernatorial election
• 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas
• 2014 United States Senate elections
• 2014 United States elections