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2014 United States Senate election in Georgia

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2014 United States Senate election in Georgia
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Georgia was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Georgia, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Georgia, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, to the United States House of Representatives, and to various other state and local offices.

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Incumbent Republican senator Saxby Chambliss announced on January 25, 2013, that he would not run for re-election, making it an open-seat race.[1] After a close and contentious primary campaign, businessman David Perdue and U.S. Representative Jack Kingston advanced to a runoff for the Republican nomination, which was narrowly won by Perdue. The Democratic primary was decisively won by Points of Light CEO Michelle Nunn, the daughter of former U.S. senator Sam Nunn. Also running was Libertarian nominee Amanda Swafford, a former Flowery Branch City Councilwoman.

If no candidate had received a majority of the vote, a runoff would have been held between the top two finishers on January 6, 2015, after the 114th Congress would have been sworn in, but in the end, David Perdue defeated Michelle Nunn by a margin of 7.7%.

Perdue's victory was part of a series of Republican victories across the nation, becoming the first non-incumbent Republican Senator in the state's history.[2] Nunn failed to improve on Obama's losing percentages in the state from two years earlier and any changes in the state's demographics were not enough for Democrats to prevail.[3] Nevertheless, Nunn took credit for making the party competitive in the otherwise inhospitable South: "We put Georgia in play. We have reminded people what a two-party system looks like."[3] Nunn's efforts to appeal to white voters were largely unsuccessful, with her not achieving 25% of the white vote, with conventional wisdom at the time stating that a Democrat needed 30% of the white vote to win.[4]

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Republican primary

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In the early stages of the Republican primary campaign, the field was deemed a "clown car" by The Hill due to the prominence of far-right candidates within it.[5] Prominent Tea Party supporter and U.S. Representative Paul Broun was the early frontrunner for the Republican nomination, with Public Policy Polling showing him with a double-digit lead over his fellow candidates.[6] During September 2013 several prominent Republicans considered buying ads against Broun's campaign, as he was seen as unelectable due to his far-right policy positions, which included support for Young Earth creationism and the contention that medical schools taught "lies from the pits of hell."[7][8] The primary was held on May 20, 2014. No candidate won more than 50% of the vote, so a runoff was held between the top two candidates, businessman David Perdue and U.S. Representative Jack Kingston. The 30.6 percent won by Perdue is the lowest ever for a first-place finisher in a Georgia U.S. Senate primary by either party in state history.[9]

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Karen Handel

Federal officials

  • Rick Santorum, former U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania, 2012 Republican presidential primary candidate[42]

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

Jack Kingston

Federal officials

Individuals

Organizations

David Perdue

Executive officials

State officials

Individuals

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
  • ^ Internal poll for Karen Handel campaign
  • * Internal poll for Jack Kingston campaign
Hypothetical polling
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Results

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Initial primary results by county:
  Perdue
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Kingston
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Handel
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Gingrey
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Broun
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
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Runoff

The runoff was held on July 22, 2014, which Perdue won with 50.9% of the vote.[90][91] Kingston was perceived as the more conservative candidate in the race, but Perdue defeated him, largely due to strong support from business-friendly voters residing in the Atlanta suburbs.[92] The runoff was noted for the large amount of advertisements run by both campaigns that focused around comparing their opponent to a baby.[93]

Endorsements

Jack Kingston

Previously endorsed Handel

Previously abstained

Defeated candidates

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s)administered ...
  • ^ Internal poll for David Perdue's campaign
  • * Internal poll for Jack Kingston's campaign

Results

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Runoff results by county:
  Perdue
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Kingston
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Perdue/Kingston tie
  •   50–60%
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Democratic primary

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Campaign

With Democratic Congressman John Barrow passing on the race, Michelle Nunn, a businesswoman and the daughter of former U.S. senator Sam Nunn, consulted with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, as well as with Democratic Georgian political figures such as Shirley Franklin, Roy Barnes and Andrew Young about possibly running,[116][117] Though she was little known to voters, Democrats embraced the hope that Nunn, with her executive experience as well as family name, could make their party once again competitive in-state.[116][118]

On July 22, 2013, Nunn declared herself a candidate for U.S. Senate.[119] She said: "Our opportunity is to define ourselves. I'm going to talk a lot about the deficit. Neither side of the equation is really tackling that. I think people are really tired of the mudslinging and the silliness of this."[119] If elected, Nunn would have become the 29th Georgian elected to the U.S. Senate or U.S. House with a family member who previously served in Congress, and the first since her father (who is the grandnephew of Carl Vinson).[120]

She raised $1.7 million in campaign funds during the third quarter of 2013, more than twice that of any Republican running.[121] She followed that with a $1.6 million fourth quarter[122] and a $2.4 million first quarter of 2014, again the most of anyone in the race.[123]

On May 20, 2014, Nunn won the Democratic primary for the Senate seat with 75 percent of the vote,[124] having skipped many of the debates and public forums where three other little-known candidates appeared.[125]

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Michelle Nunn

Executive officials

Federal officials

State officials

Municipal officials

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

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Hypothetical polling
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Results

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Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

General election

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Campaign

Following the conclusion of the two primaries, the race was set up as being between two self-described political "outsiders" with well-known-in-state political family names, each seeking to reach moderate and independent voters.[155][156]

In July 2014, National Review, a conservative media outlet, reported on a leaked Nunn campaign memo from December 2013 which made frank recommendations on strategy for Nunn's path to victory in Georgia.[157][158][159] The leaked memo said that likely attack lines against Nunn would include that she was a "lightweight", "too liberal", and "not a 'real' Georgian".[160] The memo said that Nunn should feature images of her and her family in rural settings in order to connect with rural voters, and suggested that Nunn focus on African American clergy to raise enthusiasm for her candidacy among African American voters and that Nunn focus her efforts on Jews and Asians to raise money.[157]

First Lady Michelle Obama campaigned on behalf of Nunn, as part of an effort to increase African-American voter turnout in midterm elections.[161][162]

Nunn's stump speech emphasized an appeal to bipartisanship.[163] She received support and donations from former Republican senators Richard Lugar and John Warner, both of whom were close to her father,[145] and support from former Georgia Senator and Governor Zell Miller, a Democrat who had endorsed Republicans over the previous decade.[164] Nunn's campaign commercials used photographs of herself and President George H. W. Bush, who founded Points of Light, together in campaign commercials and she mentioned him often on the campaign trail.[165] However, in June 2014, Bush sent out a fundraising letter that, while not mentioning her by name, called on Republican donors to support the Republican nominee,[165] and in September 2014, Bush endorsed Perdue.[166] In October 2014, Bush emphatically objected to Nunn continuing to use a photograph of him in her campaign, saying that such actions were disrespectful.[167] Points of Light chair Neil Bush neither endorsed nor opposed her candidacy,[168] but did label as "shameful" an advertisement approved by Perdue that used a past episode to say that Points of Light "gave money to organizations linked to terrorists."[169]

As the campaign moved on, Nunn made her father a focal point, staging joint appearances with him at military bases and saying that she would emulate his bipartisan approach to legislating.[170] She has also said that she would seek a seat on the Senate Armed Services Committee that he once chaired.[170]

Perdue stated that he entered politics out of concern for the rising national debt. He supported repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act.[171] He also supported a constitutional balanced budget amendment and comprehensive tax reform.[172] In addition, he pledged to limit himself to two terms in the Senate, if elected.[173]

Perdue touted his business experience, particularly his experience at Dollar General, saying, "We added about 2,200 stores, created almost 20,000 jobs and doubled the value of that company in a very short period of time. Not because of me, but because we listened to our customers and employees." He received the endorsement of the National Federation of Independent Business.[174] But he was hurt during the campaign by revelations that he had in the past been an enthusiastic supporter of outsourcing.[3] Nunn targeted past pre-political statements of Perdue where he had said he was "proud of" his outsourcing efforts, and for the job losses that followed the final closure of Pillowtex.[174][175]

Policy positions

Perdue supported repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act.[171] He supported a constitutional balanced budget amendment and comprehensive tax reform.[172] He pledged to limit himself to two terms in the Senate, if elected.[173]

Nunn supported abortion rights.[176] Nunn believed that members of Congress should be forced to pass a budget each year, or forfeit their pay.[177] Nunn supported expanding federally mandated background checks to include all local sales to prevent the possibility that mentally ill persons would be able to buy a firearm.[178] Nunn said that going forward, some aspects of the Affordable Care Act should be fixed rather than the whole law being eliminated.[119][179] She criticized Georgia's refusal to accept Medicaid expansion under the act.[119] Following the start-up problems with the associated HealthCare.gov website, Nunn broke with the Obama administration and said that the individual mandate portion of the law should be delayed.[180] Nunn supported the 2013 Senate immigration plan that would have allowed illegal immigrants to stay in the United States while waiting for American citizenship.[178] Nunn favored construction of the Keystone XL Pipeline.[177] She opposed the Obama administration's proposed cuts to defense spending.[170] On the topic of same-sex marriage, Nunn said she personally favored it, but that the decision should be made on a state-by-state basis.[119]

Debates

Perdue and Nunn held debates on August 21,[181] October 7, October 26,[182] and November 2.[183]

Fundraising

David Perdue has funded more than $1.9 million of his campaign personally; the second-largest total of any Senate candidate.[184] A total of $23,355,844 was raised by the candidates for this race, of which a total of $22,917,058 was spent by the campaigns.

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Spending

This Senate race, as many others across the United States, was heavily influenced by outside PACs and organizations who supported various candidates.[185] The U.S. Chamber of Commerce alone was expected to spend almost $50 million on elections in 2014.[185] More than $4.6 million had been spent on advertising in the race by outside groups by May 2014.[185]

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Predictions

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Polling

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Hypothetical polling

With Broun

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With Chambliss

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With Gingrey

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With Grayson

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With Handel

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With Kingston

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With Price

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With Yu

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Hypothetical runoff polling
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Results

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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See also

Notes

  1. Amanda Swafford (L)

References

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