2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi

For related races, see 2018 United States Senate elections. For the other Senate election in Mississippi held in parallel, see 2018 United States Senate special election in Mississippi.

The 2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi took place on November 6, 2018, in order to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Mississippi. Incumbent Republican Roger Wicker was re-elected to a second full term, defeating his Democratic challenger, David Baria.

2018 United States Senate election in Mississippi

← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout	49.7%
Nominee Roger Wicker David Baria Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 547,619 369,567 Percentage 58.49% 39.47%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Wicker:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90–100% Baria:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      90%
U.S. senator before election Roger Wicker Republican Elected U.S. Senator Roger Wicker Republican

The candidate filing deadline was March 1, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 5, 2018, with a runoff on June 26 if a party's primary failed to produce a majority winner.^[1] The race took place on the same day as the nonpartisan jungle primary for the other U.S. Senate seat in Mississippi, which was vacated by Thad Cochran in the spring of 2018.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Richard Boyanton, businessman^[2]
• Roger Wicker, incumbent U.S. senator^[3]

Withdrawn

• Chris McDaniel, state senator and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^{[4][5][6][7][8]} (running for the Class 2 U.S. Senate seat)^[9][10]

Endorsements

Roger Wicker

U.S. executive branch officials

• George W. Bush, 43rd president of the United States^[11]
• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States^[12]

Governors

• Phil Bryant, Mississippi^[13]

Statewide officials

• Greg Snowden, speaker pro tempore of the Mississippi House of Representatives^[14]

U.S. senators

• Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania^[15]

Mississippi state officials

• Dane Maxwell, mayor of Pascagoula^[16]

Chris McDaniel (withdrawn)

Political operatives

• Tommy Barnett, treasurer of Remember Mississippi super PAC^[17]
• Laura Van Overschelde, chair of the Mississippi Tea Party^[18]
• Grant Sowell, chair of the Tupelo Tea Party^[19]

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roger Wicker	Chris McDaniel	Tate Reeves	Undecided
Triumph Campaigns[20]	April 10–11, 2018	446	–	66%	16%	–	18%
JMC Analytics[21]	February 15–17, 2018	500	± 4.4%	38%	–	15%	47%
				38%	20%	–	42%
Mason-Dixon[22]	December 13–15, 2017	400	± 5.0%	49%	33%	–	18%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Wicker)[23]	April 22–25, 2017	500	± 4.2%	55%	30%	–	14%

Results

Results by county

Map legend

•   Wicker—≥90%
•   Wicker—80–90%
•   Wicker—70–80%
•   Wicker—60–70%

Republican primary results^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Roger Wicker (incumbent)	130,118	82.79%
	Republican	Richard Boyanton	27,052	17.21%
Total votes			157,170	100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• David Baria, Mississippi House of Representatives Minority Leader^[25]
• Jensen Bohren^[26]
• Jerone Garland^[27]
• Victor G. Maurice Jr.^[27]
• Omeria Scott, state representative^[28]
• Howard Sherman, businessman and husband of actress Sela Ward^[29]

Declined

• Jeramey Anderson, state representative (running for MS-4)^[30][31]
• Brandon Presley, chair of the Mississippi Public Service Commission^[32][33]

Endorsements

Jensen Bohren

Organizations

• Jackpine Radicals^[34]
• Mississippi DSA^[35]
• Sustainable Politician Project^[36]
• Vote STEM^[37]

David Baria

Organizations

• End Citizens United^[38]
• Mississippi AFL-CIO^[39]
• Mississippi Association of Educators ^[40]
• Sierra Club^[41]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	David Baria	Jensen Bohren	Omeria Scott	Howard Sherman	Undecided
Triumph Campaigns[20]	April 10–11, 2018	446	7%	4%	9%	2%	79%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Baria	Chuck Espy	Jim Hood	Bennie Thompson	Undecided
Triumph Campaigns[42]	January 29, 2018	2,145	± 1.8%	–	–	33%	47%	20%
				10%	34%	–	–	56%

Results

Initial primary results by county

Map legend

•   Sherman—50–60%
•   Sherman—40–50%
•   Sherman—30–40%
•   Baria—30–40%
•   Baria—40–50%
•   Baria—50–60%
•   Baria—60–70%
•   Baria—80–90%
•   Scott—30–40%
•   Scott—40–50%
•   Scott—50–60%
•   Scott—70–80%
•   Scott—80–90%
•   Garland—50–60%

Democratic primary results^[43]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Howard Sherman	27,957	31.79%
	Democratic	David Baria	27,244	30.98%
	Democratic	Omeria Scott	21,278	24.20%
	Democratic	Victor G. Maurice Jr.	4,361	4.96%
	Democratic	Jerone Garland	4,266	4.85%
	Democratic	Jensen Bohren	2,825	3.21%
Total votes			87,931	100%

Runoff results

Primary runoff results by county

Map legend

•   Baria—≥90%
•   Baria—80–90%
•   Baria—70–80%
•   Baria—60–70%
•   Baria—50–60%
•   Sherman—50–60%
•   Sherman—60–70%
•   Sherman—70–80%
•   Sherman—80–90%

Democratic primary runoff results^[44]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	David Baria	44,156	58.64%
	Democratic	Howard Sherman	31,149	41.36%
Total votes			75,305	100%

Independents and third party candidates

Libertarian Party

Declared

• Danny Bedwell, candidate for MS-01 in 2012 and 2014^[27]

Reform Party

Declared

• Shawn O'Hara, perennial candidate^[27]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[45]	Safe R	October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[46]	Safe R	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Fox News[48]	Likely R	July 9, 2018
CNN[49]	Safe R	July 12, 2018
RealClearPolitics[50]	Safe R	June 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2018
Candidate	Total receipts	Total disbursements	Cash on hand
Roger Wicker (R)	$5,349,028	$3,831,418	$3,138,044
David Baria (D)	$532,629	$528,325	$72,922
Source: Federal Election Commission[51]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Roger Wicker (R)	David Baria (D)	Danny Bedwell (L)	Other	Undecided
Change Research[52]	November 2–4, 2018	1,003	–	48%	40%	5%	3%[53]	–
Marist College[54]	October 13–18, 2018	511 LV	± 6.1%	57%	31%	2%	2%[55]	9%
				60%	32%	–	2%	7%
		856 RV	± 4.7%	54%	30%	3%	2%[55]	10%
				57%	32%	–	2%	9%
SurveyMonkey[56]	September 9–24, 2018	985	± 4.3%	43%	29%	–	–	27%
Triumph Campaigns[57]	July 30–31, 2018	2,100	± 3.5%	53%	32%	1%	2%[58]	12%
Triumph Campaigns[20]	April 10–11, 2018	1,000	± 3.0%	48%	31%	–	–	21%

Results

United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2018^[59]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Roger Wicker (incumbent)	547,619	58.49%	+1.33%
	Democratic	David Baria	369,567	39.47%	−1.08%
	Libertarian	Danny Bedwell	12,981	1.39%	N/A
	Reform	Shawn O'Hara	6,048	0.65%	−0.41%
Total votes			936,215	100%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Copiah (largest city: Hazlehurst)
• Panola (largest city: Batesville)
• Pike (largest city: McComb)
• Yazoo (largest city: Yazoo City)

By congressional district

Wicker won three of four congressional districts.^[60]

District	Wicker	Baria	Representative
1st	66%	32%	Trent Kelly
2nd	38%	61%	Bennie Thompson
3rd	62%	36%	Michael Guest
4th	68%	30%	Steven Palazzo