2010 United States Senate election in Nevada

The 2010 United States Senate election in Nevada took place on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator and Majority Leader Harry Reid won re-election to a fifth and final term.^[1]

2010 United States Senate election in Nevada

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Nominee Harry Reid Sharron Angle Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 362,785 321,361 Percentage 50.29% 44.55%

County results Congressional district results[a] Reid:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70% Angle:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election Harry Reid Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Harry Reid Democratic

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary took place on June 8, 2010. Reid won by a large margin over a field of political unknowns.

Candidates

• Harry Reid, incumbent U.S. Senator
• Alex Miller
• Eduardo Hamilton
• Carlo Poliak^[2]

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Harry Reid	Barbara Buckley
Mellman Group[3]	June 17–29, 2008	51%	20%

Results

Democratic primary results^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Harry Reid (incumbent)	87,401	75.3%
	Democratic	None of these	12,341	10.6%
	Democratic	Alex Miller	9,717	8.4%
	Democratic	Eduardo Hamilton	4,645	4.0%
	Democratic	Carlo Poliak	1,938	1.7%
Total votes			116,042	100.00%

Republican primary

The Republican primary also took place on Tuesday, June 8, 2010.

Candidates

• Sharron Angle, former state assemblywoman and candidate for NV-02 in 2006^[5]
• John Chachas, businessman^[6]
• Chad Christensen, state assemblyman^[7]
• Greg Dagani, former member of the Nevada Board of Education^[8]
• Chuck Flume, businessman^[6]
• Sue Lowden, former state senator^[6]
• Mark Noonan, Navy veteran^[9]
• Bill Parson, Marine veteran and businessman^[10]
• Danny Tarkanian, real estate owner^[6]

Endorsements

Lowden

Notable individuals and organizations endorsing Sue Lowden

• Jon Kyl, Senate Minority Whip
• Fred Thompson, former U.S. Senator
• Jeri Thompson
• Susan B. Anthony List, pro-life organization^[11]
• Robert List, former Governor of Nevada^[12]
• University of Nevada, Las Vegas College Republicans^[13]

Tarkanian

Notable individuals and organizations endorsing Danny Tarkanian

• Armenian National Committee Political Action Committee^[14]
• Armenian Council of America Political Action Committee^[15]
• George Deukmejian, former governor of California^[16]
• Jim Gilchrist, co-founder of the Minuteman Project^[17]
• Kim Rhode, two-time Olympic gold medal winner^[18]

Angle

Notable individuals and organizations endorsing Sharron Angle

• Club for Growth^[19]
• Tea Party Express^[20]
• Family-Pac Federal^[21]
• Minuteman PAC (Chris Simcox)^[18]
• Gun Owners of America Political Victory Fund^[22]
• Sarah Palin^[23]
• Joe the Plumber^[24]
• Pat Boone^[25]
• Mark Levin^[26]
• Life & Liberty PAC^[18]
• Citizens United Political Victory Fund^[27]
• Nevada Concerned Citizens^[18]
• Nevada Homeschool Network^[28]
• Nevada Republican Assembly^[29]
• Declaration Alliance PAC^[30]
• Veterans in Politics^[31]
• Government is not God PAC^[32]
• Phyllis Schlafly, Eagle Forum^[33]
• Las Vegas talk show host Leon Catlett^[34]
• Change the Congress in 2010 PAC^[35]
• Western Representation PAC^[36]
• Can-Do Conservatives of America (disabled advocacy group)^[37]
• Republican Liberty Caucus^[38]

Polling

Includes current candidates who have polled at least 2% in at least one poll.

Dates administered	Poll source	Tarkanian	Lowden	Angle
August 21, 2009	Mason Dixon/LVRJ[39]	33%	14%	5%
October 8, 2009	Poll[40]	21%	23%	9%
December 2009	Mason Dixon/LVRJ[41]	24%	25%	13%
January 7, 2010	[42]	28%	26%	13%
February 24, 2010	Mason Dixon/LVRJ[43]	29%	47%	8%
April 11, 2010	Mason Dixon/LVRJ[44]	27%	45%	5%
April 26–28, 2010	Research 2000[45]	28%	38%	13%
May 13, 2010	Mason Dixon/LVRJ[46]	22%	30%	25%
May 28, 2010	Mason Dixon/LVRJ[46]	23%	30%	29%
May 31 – June 2, 2010	Research 2000[47]	24%	25%	34%
June 2, 2010	Suffolk University[48]	26%	24%	33%
June 1–3, 2010	[49]	24%	23%	32%

Results

Results by county:

  Angle

•   30–40%
•   40–50%

  Lowden

•   30–40%

  Tarkanian

•   30–40%

Republican primary results^[4]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Sharron Angle	70,452	40.1%
	Republican	Sue Lowden	45,890	26.1%
	Republican	Danny Tarkanian	40,936	23.3%
	Republican	John Chachas	6,926	3.9%
	Republican	Chad Christensen	4,806	2.7%
	Republican	None of these	3,091	1.8%
	Republican	Bill Parson	1,484	0.8%
	Republican	Gary Bernstein	698	0.4%
	Republican	Garn Mabey	462	0.3%
	Republican	Cecilia Stern	355	0.2%
	Republican	Brian Nadell	235	0.1%
	Republican	Terry Suominen	224	0.1%
	Republican	Gary Marinch	179	0.1%
Total votes			175,738	100.00%

General election

Candidates

• Harry Reid (D), incumbent U.S. Senator and Senate Majority Leader
• Sharron Angle (R), former member of the Nevada Assembly
• Scott Ashjian (Tea Party)^[50] (campaign site, PVS)
• Tim Fasano (Independent American)^[51] (campaign site, PVS)
• Michael Haines (Independent)^[52] (campaign site, PVS)
• Jesse Holland (Independent)^[52] (campaign site, PVS)
• Jeffrey Reeves (Independent)^[53] (campaign site Archived July 31, 2010, at the Wayback Machine, PVS)
• Wil Stand (Independent)^[52] (PVS)

Campaign

In January 2009, the GOP began running an advertisement attacking President Barack Obama's proposed stimulus plan and Reid for his support of the legislation.^[54] Since becoming Minority Leader (in 2004), his approval ratings had dropped below 50%.^[55] A November 2007 poll showed Reid's approval rating at 39%, with 49% of voters disapproving.^[56]

After the primaries, the first poll showed Angle leading by a double-digit margin. CQ Politics changed their analysis of the race from leaning Republican to a toss-up because of Angle's sharply conservative views and tendency to commit verbal gaffes; however, CQ added that if the voters treat the election as a referendum on Reid, then Angle will likely win.^[57]

In 2009, Reid had been endorsed by some prominent Nevada Republicans.^[58] Immediately after the primary, the Republican mayor of Reno, Bob Cashell, who had backed Lowden in the Republican primary, endorsed Reid for the general election, calling Angle an "ultra-right winger."^[59][60] Other Republicans expressed doubt about supporting Angle, citing her reputation for ideological rigidity from her years in the state legislature.^[61]

One of the first general election ads attacked Angle for her stance on Social Security and Medicare.^[62] In response, Angle explained that "the government must continue to keep its contract with seniors, who entered into the system on good faith and now are depending on that contract." In response to accusations that she was not mainstream enough for Nevada voters, Angle explained on a KXNT radio show that she was "more mainstream than the fellow that said tourists stink, this war is lost, and light-skinned no-Negro dialect", in reference to comments that had been made by Senator Reid.^[63]

In September, Tibi Ellis, the chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Hispanic Caucus, who had been a spokesperson for Angle, criticized an Angle ad related to immigration. Ellis said, "I condemned this type of propaganda, no matter who is running them, where they blame Mexicans as the only problem and where they attack them as the only source of illegal immigration."^[64]

Angle was endorsed by Nevada's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal.^[65] Reid had the endorsement from Nevada's second largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Sun.^[66] and the largest newspaper outside of Las Vegas, the Reno Gazette-Journal.^[67]

On October 7, 2010, Republican State Senator and Minority Leader William Raggio endorsed Reid.^[68][69] Dema Guinn, the widow of the late Republican Nevada Governor Kenny Guinn, endorsed Reid on October 8.^[70]

Debate

Angle and Reid only agreed to one debate, in which no other candidate would participate. It was held on October 14.^[71] Junior Senator John Ensign played Reid during one day of debate preparation at the Trump Plaza in Las Vegas for Angle.^[72]

Predictions

Reid was initially considered vulnerable, with the non-partisan Cook Political Report rating the election as a tossup^[73] and the Rothenberg Political Report rating the state as tossup.^[74] A June 9, 2010, Rasmussen Reports post-primary poll showed Angle leading incumbent Senator Harry Reid by a margin of 50% to 39%.^[75] However, a July 2010 poll showed Senator Reid leading Angle by 7 points, following nationwide attention to some of Angle's positions,^[76] as well as the endorsement of Reid by prominent Republicans. The change of margin, 18% in less than a month, is the largest in Senate elections history.^[76] On July 28, 2010, Rasmussen Reports moved the race from tossup to leans Democratic.^[77] Later, it moved back to tossup. Polls generally had Angle up, and thus Reid seemed like the underdog. Journalist Jon Ralston correctly predicted Reid would win based on early voting numbers and Reid running a strong campaign.^[78]

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[79]	Tossup	October 26, 2010
Rothenberg[80]	Tossup	October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics[81]	Tossup	October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[82]	Lean R (flip)	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[83]	Tossup	October 26, 2010

Polling

Graphical summary

Dates administered	Poll source	Sharron Angle (R)	Harry Reid (D)
December 9, 2009	Rasmussen Reports[84]	47%	43%
January 7, 2010	[42]	45%	40%
January 11, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[85]	44%	40%
February 3, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[86]	44%	40%
March 3, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[87]	47%	43%
March 31, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[86]	51%	40%
April 27, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[86]	48%	40%
April 26–28, 2010	Research 2000[45]	44%	41%
May 28, 2010	Mason Dixon/LVRJ[88]	39%	42%
May 31 – June 2, 2010	Research 2000[89]	37%	42%
June 1–3, 2010	[49]	44%	41%
June 9, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[90]	50%	39%
June 22, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[91]	48%	41%
July 12, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[92]	46%	43%
July 12–14, 2010	Mason-Dixon[93]	37%	44%
July 16–18, 2010	Public Policy Polling[94]	46%	48%
July 27, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[86]	43%	45%
July 28–30, 2010	Mason-Dixon[93]	42%	43%
August 3, 2010	Reuters/Iposos[95]	44%	48%
August 9–11, 2010	Mason-Dixon[93]	44%	46%
August 16, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[96]	47%	47%
August 23–25, 2010	Mason-Dixon[97]	44%	45%
September 1, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[98]	45%	45%
September 7–9, 2010	Mason-Dixon[99]	44%	46%
September 11, 2010	FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research[100]	45%	44%
September 13, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[101]	48%	48%
September 10–14, 2010	CNN/Time Magazine[102]	42%	41%
September 18, 2010	FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research[103]	46%	45%
September 20–22, 2010	LVRJ/Mason-Dixon[104]	43%	43%
September 21–23, 2010	Public Opinion Strategies[105]	40%	45%
September 28, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[106]	47%	48%
October 2, 2010	FOX News/Pulse Opinion Research[103]	49%	46%
October 4, 2010	Magellan Strategies[107]	48%	43%
October 5, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[106]	50%	46%
October 7–9, 2010	Public Policy Polling[108]	45%	47%
October 9, 2010	Fox News/POR-Rasmussen[103]	49%	47%
October 11, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[106]	49%	48%
October 14, 2010	Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon[109]	47%	45%
October 17, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[106]	50%	47%
October 25, 2010	Rasmussen Reports[106]	49%	45%
October 20–26, 2010	CNN/Time/Opinion Research[110]	49%	45%
October 25–27, 2010	Mason-Dixon[111]	49%	45%
October 30, 2010	Fox News/Pulse Opinion Research[103]	48%	45%
October 31, 2010	Public Policy Polling[112]	47%	46%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Sharron Angle (R)	$27,797,915	$27,505,917	$291,999	$635,737
Harry Reid (D)	$19,185,317	$22,325,360	$176,309	$419,093
Source: Federal Election Commission[113]

Results

Despite Angle leading by three points in the polls the days leading up to the election, Reid defeated Angle by 5.74%, even defeating Angle in her own county, Washoe County. Reid also secured huge numbers out of the Democratic stronghold of Clark County, which covers the Las Vegas Metropolitan Area.

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2010^[114][115]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Harry Reid (incumbent)	362,785	50.29%	−10.84%
	Republican	Sharron Angle	321,361	44.55%	+9.45%
	n/a	None of These Candidates	16,174	2.25%	+0.65%
	Tea Party of Nevada	Scott Ashjian	5,811	0.81%	N/A
	Independent	Michael L. Haines	4,261	0.59%	N/A
	Independent American	Timothy Fasano	3,185	0.44%	N/A
	Independent	Jesse Holland	3,175	0.44%	N/A
	Independent	Jeffery C. Reeves	2,510	0.35%	N/A
	Independent	Wil Stand	2,119	0.29%	N/A
Total votes			721,381	100.0%
	Democratic hold

By county

County	Reid	%	Angle	%	Others/None of These	%
Carson City	8,714	44.64%	9,362	47.96%	1,443	7.39%
Churchill	2,473	27.80%	5,639	63.40%	783	8.80%
Clark	253,617	54.41%	192,516	41.30%	20,030	4.30%
Douglas	7,530	34.57%	12,858	59.04%	1,392	6.39%
Elko	3,246	25.24%	8,173	63.56%	1,440	11.20%
Esmeralda	80	20.15%	268	67.51%	49	12.34%
Eureka	137	18.05%	524	69.04%	98	12.91%
Humboldt	1,600	32.12%	2,836	56.92%	546	10.96%
Lander	487	25.60%	1,201	63.14%	214	11.25%
Lincoln	442	22.68%	1,311	67.27%	196	10.06%
Lyon	5,659	32.39%	10,473	59.95%	1,339	7.66%
Mineral	855	44.93%	822	43.19%	226	11.88%
Nye	5,279	36.66%	7,822	54.32%	1,298	9.01%
Pershing	597	34.39%	915	52.71%	224	12.90%
Storey	843	39.50%	1,124	52.67%	167	7.83%
Washoe	70,523	49.91%	63,316	44.81%	7,448	5.27%
White Pine	703	21.51%	2,201	67.33%	365	11.17%

^[116]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Carson City
• Humboldt (largest municipality: Winnemucca)
• Nye (largest municipality: Pahrump)
• Pershing (largest municipality: Lovelock)
• Storey (largest municipality: Virginia City)
• White Pine (largest municipality: Ely)

Analysis

In its analysis of Reid's victory over Angle, Politico reported that the Reid campaign had placed advertisements opposing Angle's main primary opponent, Sue Lowden. The purpose of the ads was to enhance the "polarizing" Angle's chances of winning the Republican nomination.^[117]

Notes

1. Only top two candidates