過程追蹤

過程追蹤（process tracing）是一種用於開發和檢驗理論的研究方法。^[1][2][3]該方法通常被理解為一種基於因果機制進行推論的「案例內」方法。^[4][5]該方法被用於社會科學（如心理學^[6]）以及自然科學。^[5]

使用過程追蹤的學者根據測試（特別是風中稻草測試、箍測試、確鑿證據測試、雙重決定性測試）的強度評估證據的權重。^[5]重要的不僅僅是觀察的數量，還有觀察的質量和方式。^[5][6]使用貝葉斯概率，可以通過過程跟蹤從一小部分數據中做出強有力的因果推斷。^[5][7]過程追蹤是一種突出的案例研究方法。^[8]

延伸閱讀

• Bennett, A. and A.L. George (2001). "Case Studies and Process Tracing in History and Political Science: Similar Strokes for Different Foci" in C. Elman and M.F. Elman (eds.) Bridges and Boundaries: Historians, Political Scientists, and the Study of International Relations. MIT Press pp. 137–166.
• Checkel. J. T. (2006) "Tracing Causal Mechanisms." The International Studies Review 8: 362-370.
• Checkel, J. T. (2008) "Process Tracing." in A. Klotz and D. Prakash (eds.) Qualitative Methods in International Relations: A Pluralist Guide. Palgrave. pp. 114–129.
• Vennesson, P. and I. Wiesner (2014) "Process Tracing in Case Studies." in J. Soeters, P. Shields and S Reitjens (eds) Routledge Handbook of Research Methods in Military Studies. Routledge. pp. 92–103.