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The 2018 New Hampshire gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Incumbent Republican Governor Chris Sununu won re-election to a second term, defeating former state senator Molly Kelly. Sununu was the first incumbent Republican to win reelection as governor since Steve Merrill was reelected in 1994.
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Sununu: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Kelly: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Primary elections were held on September 11, 2018. The gubernatorial election was coincident with races for the state legislature and the United States House of Representatives. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state won by Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
New Hampshire is one of only two states, along with Vermont, where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Chris Sununu was elected in the 2016 election.[1]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TargetPoint/GQR | March 8–15, 2018 | 326 | ± 5.4% | 77% | 9% | 14% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Chris Sununu (incumbent) | 91,025 | 98.3 | |
Democratic | Molly Kelly (write-in) | 577 | 0.6 | |
Democratic | Steve Marchand (write-in) | 160 | 0.2 | |
Libertarian | Jiletta Jarvis (write-in) | 90 | 0.0 | |
Libertarian | Aaron Day (write-in) | 39 | 0.0 | |
Scattering | 692 | 0.7 | ||
Total votes | 92,583 | 100.0 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Connolly |
Molly Kelly |
Steve Marchand |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University Archived 2018-05-03 at the Wayback Machine | April 26–30, 2018 | 401 | – | – | 21% | 19% | – | 58% |
TargetPoint/GQR | March 8–15, 2018 | 346 | ± 5.3% | 9% | 17% | 11% | 4% | 58% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Molly Kelly | 80,598 | 65.5 | |
Democratic | Steve Marchand | 41,612 | 33.8 | |
Republican | Chris Sununu (write-in) (incumbent) | 563 | 0.5 | |
Libertarian | Jiletta Jarvis (write-in) | 17 | 0.0 | |
Libertarian | Aaron Day (write-in) | 8 | 0.0 | |
Scattering | 167 | 0.1 | ||
Total votes | 122,965 | 100.0 |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Jilletta Jarvis | 576 | 51.9 | |
Libertarian | Aaron Day | 487 | 43.9 | |
Republican | Chris Sununu (write-in) (incumbent) | 21 | 1.9 | |
Democratic | Molly Kelly (write-in) | 9 | 0.8 | |
Democratic | Steve Marchand (write-in) | 6 | 0.5 | |
Scattering | 11 | 1.0 | ||
Total votes | 1,110 | 100.0 |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[15] | Lean R | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[16] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[17] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[18] | Lean R | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[20] | Tossup | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[21] | Likely R | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[22][lower-alpha 1] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[23] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[24] | Lean R | November 5, 2018 |
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Molly Kelly (D) |
Jilletta Jarvis (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | November 1–4, 2018 | 630 | ± 3.9% | 46% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 6% |
Change Research (D-NH Democratic Party) | October 27–29, 2018 | 901 | – | 47% | 46% | – | – | – |
Emerson College | October 27–29, 2018 | 1,139 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 43% | 1% | – | 5% |
University of New Hampshire | October 10–18, 2018 | 499 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 39% | 4% | – | 7% |
Saint Anselm College | October 10–15, 2018 | 454 | ± 4.6% | 49% | 39% | 1% | 0% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 10–12, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 35% | 1% | – | 14% |
American Research Group | September 21–26, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 44% | – | 0% | 7% |
University of New Hampshire | August 2–19, 2018 | 389 | ± 5.0% | 48% | 32% | – | 5% | 16% |
Suffolk University Archived 2018-05-03 at the Wayback Machine | April 26–30, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 27% | 4% | – | 21% |
University of New Hampshire | April 13–22, 2018 | 379 | ± 5.0% | 51% | 24% | 2% | 4% | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Steve Marchand (D) |
Jilletta Jarvis (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | August 2–19, 2018 | 389 | ± 5.0% | 48% | 33% | – | 4% | 15% |
Suffolk University Archived 2018-05-03 at the Wayback Machine | April 26–30, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 49% | 25% | 4% | – | 21% |
University of New Hampshire | April 13–22, 2018 | 379 | ± 5.0% | 49% | 24% | 2% | 2% | 20% |
University of New Hampshire | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | 42% | 28% | – | – | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Praecones Analytica | August 13–15, 2018 | 626 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 33% | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TargetPoint/GQR | March 8–15, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 39% | 4% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Mark Connolly (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 29% | – | 30% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Chris Sununu (R) |
Colin Van Ostern (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | January 28 – February 10, 2018 | 381 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 31% | 28% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Chris Sununu (incumbent) | 302,764 | 52.78% | +3.94% | |
Democratic | Molly Kelly | 262,359 | 45.74% | −0.83% | |
Libertarian | Jilletta Jarvis | 8,197 | 1.43% | −2.88% | |
Write-in | 282 | 0.05% | -0.23% | ||
Total votes | 573,602 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
2018 Gubernatorial election results in New Hampshire (by county) [58] | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
County | Molly Kelly Democratic |
Chris Sununu Republican |
Other votes | Margin | Total votes | ||||
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | |
Belknap | 9,690 | 36.00% | 16,856 | 62.62% | 374 | 1.39% | 7,166 | 26.62% | 26,920 |
Carroll | 10,432 | 43.46% | 13,308 | 55.44% | 265 | 1.10% | 2,876 | 11.98% | 24,005 |
Cheshire | 18,158 | 55.80% | 13,875 | 42.64% | 509 | 1.56% | -4,283 | -13.16% | 32,542 |
Coös | 4,988 | 42.96% | 6,397 | 55.10% | 225 | 1.94% | 1,409 | 12.14% | 11,610 |
Grafton | 22,932 | 56.89% | 16,734 | 41.52% | 642 | 1.59% | -6,198 | -15.37% | 40,308 |
Hillsborough | 72,033 | 44.34% | 87,846 | 54.07% | 2,589 | 1.59% | 15,813 | 9.73% | 162,468 |
Merrimack | 30,540 | 46.97% | 33,513 | 51.54% | 972 | 1.49% | 2,973 | 4.57% | 65,025 |
Rockingham | 59,269 | 42.29% | 79,195 | 56.50% | 1,699 | 1.21% | 19,926 | 14.21% | 140,163 |
Strafford | 26,593 | 49.89% | 25,782 | 48.37% | 931 | 1.75% | -811 | -1.52% | 53,306 |
Sullivan | 7,724 | 44.76% | 9,258 | 53.65% | 273 | 1.58% | 1,534 | 8.89% | 17,255 |
Sununu won both congressional districts, which simultaneously elected Democrats.[59]
District | Kelly | Sununu | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 44.01% | 54.64% | Chris Pappas |
2nd | 47.58% | 50.91% | Annie Kuster |
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