A receiver operating characteristic curve, or ROC curve, is a graphical plot that illustrates the diagnostic ability of a binary classifier system as its discrimination threshold is varied. The method was originally developed for operators of military radar receivers starting in 1941, which led to its name.

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Terminology and derivations
from a confusion matrix
condition positive (P)
the number of real positive cases in the data
condition negative (N)
the number of real negative cases in the data

true positive (TP)
A test result that correctly indicates the presence of a condition or characteristic
true negative (TN)
A test result that correctly indicates the absence of a condition or characteristic
false positive (FP)
A test result which wrongly indicates that a particular condition or attribute is present
false negative (FN)
A test result which wrongly indicates that a particular condition or attribute is absent

sensitivity, recall, hit rate, or true positive rate (TPR)
specificity, selectivity or true negative rate (TNR)
precision or positive predictive value (PPV)
negative predictive value (NPV)
miss rate or false negative rate (FNR)
fall-out or false positive rate (FPR)
false discovery rate (FDR)
false omission rate (FOR)
Positive likelihood ratio (LR+)
Negative likelihood ratio (LR-)
prevalence threshold (PT)
threat score (TS) or critical success index (CSI)

Prevalence
accuracy (ACC)
balanced accuracy (BA)
F1 score
is the harmonic mean of precision and sensitivity:
phi coefficient (φ or rφ) or Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC)
Fowlkes–Mallows index (FM)
informedness or bookmaker informedness (BM)
markedness (MK) or deltaP (Δp)
Diagnostic odds ratio (DOR)

Sources: Fawcett (2006),[1] Piryonesi and El-Diraby (2020),[2] Powers (2011),[3] Ting (2011),[4] CAWCR,[5] D. Chicco & G. Jurman (2020, 2021),[6][7] Tharwat (2018).[8] Balayla (2020)[9]

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ROC curve of three predictors of peptide cleaving in the proteasome.

The ROC curve is created by plotting the true positive rate (TPR) against the false positive rate (FPR) at various threshold settings. The true-positive rate is also known as sensitivity, recall or probability of detection.[10] The false-positive rate is also known as probability of false alarm[10] and can be calculated as (1 − specificity). The ROC can also be thought of as a plot of the power as a function of the Type I Error of the decision rule (when the performance is calculated from just a sample of the population, it can be thought of as estimators of these quantities). The ROC curve is thus the sensitivity or recall as a function of fall-out. In general, if the probability distributions for both detection and false alarm are known, the ROC curve can be generated by plotting the cumulative distribution function (area under the probability distribution from to the discrimination threshold) of the detection probability in the y-axis versus the cumulative distribution function of the false-alarm probability on the x-axis.

ROC analysis provides tools to select possibly optimal models and to discard suboptimal ones independently from (and prior to specifying) the cost context or the class distribution. ROC analysis is related in a direct and natural way to cost/benefit analysis of diagnostic decision making.

The ROC curve was first developed by electrical engineers and radar engineers during World War II for detecting enemy objects in battlefields and was soon introduced to psychology to account for perceptual detection of stimuli. ROC analysis since then has been used in medicine, radiology, biometrics, forecasting of natural hazards,[11] meteorology,[12] model performance assessment,[13] and other areas for many decades and is increasingly used in machine learning and data mining research.

The ROC is also known as a relative operating characteristic curve, because it is a comparison of two operating characteristics (TPR and FPR) as the criterion changes.[14]