2006 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont

The 2006 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont was held on November 7, 2006, for representation of Vermont's at-large congressional district in the United States House of Representatives from January 3, 2007, to January 3, 2009.

2006 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont's at-large district

← 2004 November 7, 2006 2008 →

Nominee Peter Welch Martha Rainville Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 139,815 117,023 Percentage 53.22% 44.54%

County results Municipality results Welch:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Rainville:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Trudell:      50–60%

U.S. Representative before election Bernie Sanders Independent Elected U.S. Representative Peter Welch Democratic

Incumbent Congressman Bernie Sanders, an independent member of Congress who caucused with the Democrats, did not seek a ninth term in the House, instead running successfully for the United States Senate.

To replace Congressman Sanders, Democrat Peter Welch defeated Republican Martha Rainville by a somewhat narrow margin (just under 10%) in staunchly-liberal Vermont. As of 2022, this is the last federal election in which a Republican received more than a third of the vote.

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Peter Welch, State Senate President pro tempore, nominee for Governor in 1990, and candidate for this seat in 1988

Results

Democratic primary results^[1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Peter Welch	34,706	97.11
	Democratic	Write-ins	1,033	2.89
Total votes			35,739	100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

• Martha Rainville, former Vermont National Guard Adjutant General
• Mark Shepard, State Senator

Results

Republican primary results^[1]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Martha Rainville	26,199	71.31
	Republican	Mark Shepard	10,285	27.99
	Republican	Write-ins	258	0.70
Total votes			36,742	100.00

Third-party and independent candidates

Declined

• David Zuckerman, member of the Vermont House of Representatives, farmer, businessman, environmentalist (Progressive Party)^[2][3][4]

General election

Polling

Source	Date	Peter Welch (D)	Martha Rainville (R)	Jane Newton (LU)
Research 2000[5]	October 23–24, 2006	51%	41%
Greenburg Quinlan[6]	October 8–9, 2006	52%	41%
Research 2000[7]	September 18–19, 2006	45%	39%
American Research Group[8]	September 14, 2006	48%	45%	2%
American Research Group[8]	July 27, 2006	41%	42%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[9]	Lean D (flip)	November 6, 2006
Rothenberg[10]	Likely D (flip)	November 6, 2006
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11]	Likely D (flip)	November 6, 2006
Real Clear Politics[12]	Lean D (flip)	November 7, 2006
CQ Politics[13]	Lean D (flip)	November 7, 2006

Results

Vermont's at-large congressional district election, 2006^[14]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Peter Welch	139,815	53.22
	Republican	Martha Rainville	117,023	44.54
	Independent	Dennis Morrisseau	1,390	0.53
	Independent	Jerry Trudell	1,013	0.39
	Green	Bruce R. Marshall	994	0.38
	Independent	Keith Stern	963	0.37
	Liberty Union	Jane Newton	721	0.27
	Independent	Chris Karr	599	0.23
	Write-ins		208	0.08
Total votes			262,726	100.00
	Democratic gain from Independent

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

• Addison (largest municipality: Middlebury)
• Bennington (largest municipality: Bennington)
• Chittenden (largest municipality: Burlington)
• Lamoille (largest municipality: Morristown)
• Orange (Largest city: Randolph)
• Washington (largest municipality: Barre)
• Windham (largest municipality: Brattleboro)
• Windsor (largest municipality: Hartford)

Counties that flipped from Independent to Republican

• Rutland (largest municipality: Rutland)
• Grand Isle (largest municipality: Alburgh)
• Caledonia (largest municipality: St. Johnsbury)
• Orleans (largest municipality: Derby)
• Essex (Largest city: Lunenburg)
• Franklin (Largest city: St. Albans)