2007 FT3

2007 FT₃ is a lost asteroid^[2] with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that cannot be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.19 ± 0.01 astronomical units (28.4 ± 1.5 million kilometres) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. 2007 FT₃ is the fourth largest asteroid with better than a 1-in-2 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA, 1979 XB, and 101955 Bennu. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of –3.06, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place 2007 FT₃ eighth on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.^[6]

2007 FT₃

Discovery[1]
Discovered by	Mt. Lemmon Survey
Discovery date	20 March 2007
Designations
MPC designation	2007 FT3
Minor planet category	Lost[2] NEO Apollo PHA[3][4] risk listed[5]
Orbital characteristics[4]
Epoch 21 March 2007 (JD 2454180.5)
Uncertainty parameter 9
Observation arc	1.2 days[5]
Aphelion	1.48±0.02 AU (Q)
Perihelion	0.782±0.007 AU (q)
Semi-major axis	1.13±0.02 AU (a)
Eccentricity	0.308±0.006 (e)
Orbital period (sidereal)	1.2±0.03 years
Average orbital speed	28.4 km/s[a]
Mean anomaly	298°±3° (M)
Inclination	26.9°±0.43° (i)
Longitude of ascending node	9.9°±0.2° (Ω)
Argument of perihelion	277°±2° (ω)
Earth MOID	0.01 AU (1.5 million km) ?
Jupiter MOID	3.83 AU (573 million km) ?
Physical characteristics
Dimensions	~340 m (1,100 ft)?[5] 270–590 meters
Absolute magnitude (H)	20?[4]

Potential impacts

Possible impacts were projected for 2 October 2013,^[5] 3 October 2019,^[7] and 3 October 2024. Since the asteroid has a short observation arc and the uncertainty in the orbit of the asteroid intersects Earth's orbit, simulations could not rule out the asteroid and Earth being at the same point in space on any of those dates.^[8][9] None of these impacts happened, nor was the asteroid detected near those dates.

Potential impacts (past and future)^[5]

Date	Impact probability (1 in)	JPL Horizons nominal geocentric distance (AU)	NEODyS nominal geocentric distance (AU)	MPC[10] nominal geocentric distance (AU)	Find_Orb nominal geocentric distance (AU)	uncertainty[11] region
2013-10-02	1.9 billion	0.94 AU (141 million km)	1.0 AU (150 million km)	1.1 AU (160 million km)	1.2 AU (180 million km)	± 330 million km
2019-10-03	11 million	0.93 AU (139 million km)	0.95 AU (142 million km)[7]	1.3 AU (190 million km)	1.4 AU (210 million km)	± 620 million km
2024-10-03	11 million	1.7 AU (250 million km)[9]	1.7 AU (250 million km)[8]	2.0 AU (300 million km)[10]	2.0 AU (300 million km)[12]	± 500 million km[9]

See also

• 1979 XB
• 2014 MV67

Notes

1. v = 42.1219 √1/r − 0.5/a, where r is the distance from the Sun, and a is the major semi-axis. Average velocity is at r=a=1.1 AU.