2008 Missouri gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2008 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2008 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Republican Governor Matt Blunt decided to retire instead of seeking reelection to a second term in office. Despite John McCain narrowly carrying the state in the concurrent presidential election, Democratic nominee Jay Nixon won the open seat, defeating Republican nominee Kenny Hulshof in a landslide.

2008 Missouri gubernatorial election

← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →

Nominee Jay Nixon Kenny Hulshof Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,680,661 1,136,364 Percentage 58.40% 39.49%

County results Congressional district results Nixon:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      80–90% Hulshof:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Governor before election Matt Blunt Republican Elected Governor Jay Nixon Democratic

Background

On January 22, 2008, Governor Blunt unexpectedly announced that he would not seek re-election^[1] because he had already "achieved virtually everything I set out to accomplish, and more ... Because I feel we have changed what I wanted to change in the first term, there is not the same sense of mission for a second."

A November 2007 poll conducted by SurveyUSA showed Blunt with a 44% approval rating.^[2] His approval among Republicans polled was 68%, and his rating among Democrats was 23%.^[2] On November 10, 2007, Democrat Jay Nixon filed the necessary paperwork with the Missouri Ethics Commission to launch a 2008 campaign for governor.^[3]

The gubernatorial and other statewide office primaries were held August 5, 2008.^[4] CQ Politics rated the race as 'Leans Democratic'.^[5]

Timeline

• March 25, 2008 – Filing deadline for Democrats, Republicans and Libertarians^[6]
• August 5, 2008 – Primary (gubernatorial and other statewide office) elections^[6]
• August 19, 2008 – Filing deadline for other third parties and Independents^[6]
• November 4, 2008 – General election.

Primaries

Republican primary

Republican primary results^[7]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Kenny Hulshof	194,556	49.2
	Republican	Sarah Steelman	176,750	44.7
	Republican	Scott Long	18,745	4.7
	Republican	Jen Sievers	5,664	1.4
Total votes			395,715	100.0

Democratic primary

Democratic primary results

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jay Nixon	303,796	85.0
	Democratic	Daniel Carroll	53,768	15.0
Total votes			357,564	100.0

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[8]	Lean D (flip)	October 16, 2008
Rothenberg Political Report[9]	Likely D (flip)	November 2, 2008
Sabato's Crystal Ball[10]	Lean D (flip)	November 3, 2008
Real Clear Politics[11]	Likely D (flip)	November 4, 2008

Polling

Source	Date	Kenny Hulshof (R)	Jay Nixon (D)
Public Policy Polling[12]	November 2, 2008	38%	58%
Survey USA[13]	November 2, 2008	39%	54%
Survey USA[14]	October 26, 2008	38%	55%
Rasmussen Reports[15]	October 14, 2008	38%	57%
Survey USA[16]	September 24, 2008	37%	54%
Rasmussen Reports[15]	September 11, 2008	39%	54%
Public Policy Polling[17]	August 17, 2008	42%	48%
Survey USA[18]	July 31, 2008	42%	48%
Rasmussen Reports[15]	July 7, 2008	38%	49%
Rasmussen[19]	June 9, 2008	34%	54%
Survey USA[20]	May 20, 2008	33%	57%
Rasmussen[21]	May 8, 2008	35%	51%
Rasmussen[22]	March 24, 2008	37%	48%
Rasmussen[23]	February 13, 2008	30%	48%

Hypothetical polling

With Steelman

Source	Date	Sarah Steelman (R)	Jay Nixon (D)
Survey USA[18]	July 31, 2008	41%	50%
Rasmussen Reports[15]	July 7, 2008	37%	46%
Rasmussen[19]	June 9, 2008	34%	56%
Survey USA[20]	May 20, 2008	33%	58%
Rasmussen[21]	May 8, 2008	35%	51%
Rasmussen[22]	March 24, 2008	39%	46%
Rasmussen[23]	February 13, 2008	35%	46%

With Blunt

Source	Date	Matt Blunt (R)	Jay Nixon (D)
Rasmussen Reports[24]	December 12, 2007	42%	47%
Research2000[25]	November 24, 2007	42%	51%
Rasmussen[26]	October 10, 2007	44%	43%
Rasmussen[26]	August 23, 2007	43%	46%
SurveyUSA[27]	July 25–27, 2007	38%	57%

Results

On election night, Nixon won easily, even though fellow Democrat Barack Obama lost in Missouri in the concurrent presidential election (albeit by only 4,000 votes). Nixon was able to perform well in rural parts of the state. When combined with heavily populated, strong Democratic areas like St. Louis and Kansas City, Hulshof didn't have a chance to come back. Nixon was declared the winner right when the polls closed in Missouri. Hulshof conceded defeat at 9:02 P.M. Central Time.

2008 Missouri gubernatorial election

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jay Nixon	1,680,611	58.4	+10.6
	Republican	Kenny Hulshof	1,136,364	39.5	−11.3
	Libertarian	Andrew Finkenstadt	31,850	1.1	+0.2
	Constitution	Gregory Thompson	28,941	1.0	+0.6
	Write-in		12	0.0	n/a
Total votes			2,877,778	100.0	n/a
	Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Caldwell (Largest city: Hamilton)
• Daviess (Largest city: Gallatin)
• Gentry (Largest city: Albany)
• Crawford (Largest city: Cuba)
• Oregon (Largest city: Thayer)
• Vernon (Largest city: Nevada)
• Lincoln (Largest city: Troy)
• St. Clair (Largest city: Appleton City)
• Livingston (Largest city: Chillicothe)
• Andrew (Largest city: Savannah)
• Atchison (Largest city: Tarkio)
• Benton (Largest city: Warsaw)
• Camden (Largest city: Osage Beach)
• Carter (Largest city: Van Buren)
• Cass (Largest city: Harrisonville)
• Dallas (Largest city: Buffalo)
• Dent (Largest city: Salem)
• Douglas (Largest city: Ava)
• Howell (Largest city: West Plains)
• Laclede (Largest city: Lebanon)
• Maries (Largest city: Belle)
• Morgan (Largest city: Versailles)
• Ozark (Largest city: Gainesville)
• Pulaski (Largest city: Fort Leonard Wood)
• Polk (Largest city: Bolivar)
• Phelps (Largest city: Rolla)
• Ripley (Largest city: Doniphan)
• Texas (Largest city: Licking)
• Wright (Largest city: Mountain Grove)
• Webster (Largest city: Marshfield)
• Audrain (Largest city: Mexico)
• Bates (Largest city: Butler)
• Chariton (Largest city: Salisbury)
• Clark (Largest city: Kahoka)
• Dunklin (Largest city: Kennett)
• Franklin (Largest city: Washington)
• Henry (Largest city: Clinton)
• Hickory (Largest city: Hermitage)
• Howard (Largest city: Fayette)
• Iron (Largest city: Ironton)
• Knox (Largest city: Edina)
• Lafayette (Largest city: Odessa)
• Lewis (Largest city: Canton)
• Linn (Largest city: Brookfield)
• Madison (Largest city: Fredericktown)
• Nodaway (Largest city: Maryville)
• Pike (Largest city: Bowling Green)
• Reynolds (Largest city: Ellington)
• Scott (Largest city: Sikeston)
• Shannon (Largest city: Winona)
• St. Francois (Largest city: Farmington)
• Wayne (Largest city: Piedmont)
• Buchanan (Largest city: St. Joseph)
• Washington (Largest city: Potosi)
• Iron (largest city: Ironton)
• St. Charles (largest city: O'Fallon)
• Pettis (largest city: Sedalia)
• Adair (largest city: Kirksville)
• Greene (largest city: Springfield)
• Johnson (largest city: Warrensburg)
• Monroe (Largest city: Monroe City)

See also

• 2008 United States gubernatorial elections
• 2004 Missouri gubernatorial election
• 2008 Missouri lieutenant gubernatorial election
• 2008 United States presidential election in Missouri