2010 Arizona gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2010 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2010 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010, to elect the Governor of Arizona. Incumbent Republican Jan Brewer ran for a full term. Brewer ascended to the governorship following the resignation of the Popular incumbent Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano to become Secretary of Homeland Security in the Obama Administration. Primaries were held on August 24, 2010. Brewer won a full term, defeating Arizona Attorney General and Democratic nominee Terry Goddard 54% to 42%.

2010 Arizona gubernatorial election

← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →
Turnout	55.65% 4.82pp [1]
Nominee Jan Brewer Terry Goddard Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 938,934 733,935 Percentage 54.33% 42.43%
County results Precinct results Brewer:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Goddard:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election Jan Brewer Republican Elected Governor Jan Brewer Republican

This was the last election until 2022 where a woman was the Republican nominee.

Background

Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano was term limited and nominated to become Secretary of Homeland Security by President-elect Barack Obama, and was confirmed by the United States Senate on January 20, 2009, resigning as governor the same day.^[2] Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor upon Napolitano's resignation. Brewer announced on November 5, 2009, that she would seek a full term in 2010.^[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Terry Goddard, State Attorney General,^[4] former mayor of Phoenix, nominee for governor in 1990, and candidate in 1994

Declined

• Neil Giuliano, former mayor of Tempe
• Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix

Republican primary

The primary to select the 2010 Republican nominee for governor of Arizona was held on August 24, 2010.^[5][6]

Candidates

Declared

• Jan Brewer, incumbent governor

Withdrew

• Dean Martin, Arizona State Treasurer (dropped out on July 9, 2010, and endorsed Brewer)^[7]
• Owen Mills, member of the National Rifle Association of America Board of Directors (dropped out on July 13, 2010)^[8]

Declined

• Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County Sheriff^[9]
• J.D. Hayworth, former U.S. Representative
• John Munger, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party^[10]
• Vernon Parker, Mayor of Paradise Valley (ran for Congress)
• Fife Symington, former governor of Arizona^[11]

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Jan Brewer (inc.)	Dean Martin*	Buz Mills*
Rasmussen Reports[12]	June 16, 2010	72%	12%	16%
Rasmussen Reports[13]	May 17, 2010	45%	18%	18%
Public Policy Polling[14]	April 23–25, 2010	25%	15%	11%
		58%	16%	19%
Rasmussen Reports[15]	April 13, 2010	26%	12%	18%
Rasmussen Reports[15]	March 15, 2010	20%	21%	19%
Rasmussen Reports[16]	January 20, 2010	29%	27%	—
Rasmussen Reports[17]	November 18, 2009	10%	22%	—
Public Policy Polling[18]	September 21, 2009	39%	26%	—

^{* Dropped out of race after entering to seek the nomination}

Results

Results by county:

  Brewer—80–90%

  Brewer—70–80%

Republican primary results^[6]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Jan Brewer (Incumbent)	479,153	81.53
	Republican	Buz Mills*	51,001	8.68
	Republican	Dean Martin*	36,012	6.13
	Republican	Matthew Jette	19,611	3.34
	Republican	Write-in	1,906	0.32
Total votes			587,683	100

^{* Dropped out prior to primary, but still appeared on ballot}

Libertarian primary

Candidates

• Ronald Cavanaugh
• Barry Hess
• Bruce Olsen
• Alvin Ray Yount

Results

Libertarian primary results^[6]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	1,303	43.38
	Libertarian	Bruce Olsen	612	20.37
	Libertarian	Ronald Cavanaugh	547	18.21
	Libertarian	Write-in	299	9.95
	Libertarian	Alvin Ray Yount	243	8.09
Total votes			3,004	100

General election

Candidates

• Jan Brewer (R), incumbent governor
• Terry Goddard (D), attorney general
• Barry Hess (L)
• Larry Gist (G)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[19]	Likely R	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[20]	Lean R	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[21]	Lean R	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22]	Likely R	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[23]	Lean R	October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Terry Goddard (D)	Jan Brewer (R)
Rasmussen Reports[24]	October 28, 2010	39%	53%
Public Policy Polling[25]	October 23–24, 2010	44%	52%
BRC Polls[26]	October 11, 2010	35%	38%
Rasmussen Reports[24]	October 3, 2010	39%	55%
Rasmussen Reports[27]	September 7, 2010	38%	60%
Rasmussen Reports[28]	August 25, 2010	38%	57%
Rasmussen Reports[29]	July 21, 2010	37%	56%
Rasmussen Reports[30]	June 29, 2010	35%	53%
Rasmussen Reports[31]	May 17, 2010	39%	52%
Rasmussen Reports[32]	April 27, 2010	40%	48%
Public Policy Polling[33]	April 23–25, 2010	47%	44%
Rasmussen Reports[32]	April 14, 2010	40%	44%
Rasmussen Reports[32]	March 16, 2010	45%	43%
Rasmussen Reports[32]	January 20, 2010	43%	42%
Rasmussen Reports[34]	November 18, 2009	44%	42%
Rasmussen Reports[35]	September 27, 2009	42%	40%
Public Policy Polling[36]	September 7, 2009	46%	36%

Debate

On September 1, the first and only debate was held between all four candidates and moderated by Ted Simons. The debate drew national attention after Jan Brewer "stumbled and stammered" through her opening statements. Before the debate the governor had made several comments about there being beheadings in the desert. During the debate Terry Goddard tried to get the governor to admit that it was a false statement. Goddard said quote Jan I'm going to give you an opportunity to admit that was a false statement but of course the governor Steered clear of the question. After the debate reporters were demanding answers, and still she would just not answer the question.^[37] After the debate, Brewer stated that she would do no more debates.^[38][39]

Results

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2010^[40]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Janice Kay Brewer (inc.)	938,934	54.33%	+18.89%
	Democratic	Samuel Pearson Goddard III	733,935	42.43%	−20.11%
	Libertarian	Barry Hess	38,722	2.24%	+0.27%
	Green	Larry Gist	16,128	0.93%
	Write-ins		362	0.02%
Majority			204,999	11.86%	−15.28%
Turnout			1,728,081
	Republican hold		Swing

By county

County[41] Jan Brewer Republican Terry Goddard Democratic Barry Hess Libertarian Larry Gist Green Write-in Margin Total votes # % # % # % # % # % # % Apache 7,002 33.89 12,839 62.14 514 2.48 294 1.4 10 0.04 -5,837 -28.25 20,659 Cochise 24,974 62.32 13,954 34.82 742 1.85 398 0.99 2 0.00 11,020 27.50 40,070 Coconino 16,754 43.02 20,792 53.39 880 2.25 505 1.27 13 0.01 -4,038 -10.37 38,942 Gila 11,163 62.26 6,155 34.32 451 2.51 158 0.88 2 0.01 5,008 27.94 17,929 Graham 5,994 65.48 2,865 31.30 220 2.40 74 0.80 0 0.00 3,129 34.18 9,153 Greenlee 1,187 48.48 1,177 48.08 60 2.45 24 0.98 0 0.00 10 0.40 2,448 La Paz 3,048 67.31 1,330 29.37 80 1.76 70 1.54 0 0.00 1,718 37.94 4,528 Maricopa 543,045 54.78 415,142 41.88 24,077 2.42 8,600 0.86 280 0.02 127,903 12.90 991,144 Mohave 39,026 72.65 12,777 23.78 1,307 2.43 601 1.11 4 0.00 26,249 48.87 53,715 Navajo 16,157 54.49 12,517 42.22 648 2.18 317 1.06 7 0.02 3,640 12.27 29,646 Pima 148,916 47.18 158,337 50.17 648 0.20 317 0.10 16 0.00 -9,421 -2.99 315,589 Pinal 45,807 58.28 30,109 38.31 1922 2.44 735 0.93 18 0.02 15,698 19.97 78,591 Santa Cruz 3,190 31.76 6,608 65.81 138 1.37 105 1.04 0 0.00 -3,418 -34.05 10,041 Yavapai 53,081 65.21 25,569 31.41 1,830 2.24 900 1.10 8 0.00 27,512 33.80 81,388 Yuma 19,590 57.22 13,764 40.20 500 1.46 380 1.10 2 0.00 5,826 17.02 34,236 Totals 938,934 54.33 733,935 42.43 38,722 2.24 16,128 0.93 362 0.02 204,999 11.90 1,728,081 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Cochise (Largest city: Seirra Vista) Gila (Largest city: Payson) Graham (Largest city: Safford) Greenlee (Largest city: Clifton) La Paz (Largest city: Parker) Maricopa (Largest city: Phoenix) Mohave (Largest city: Lake Havasu City) Navajo (Largest city: Show Low) Pinal (Largest city: San Tan Valley) Yavapai (Largest city: Prescott Valley) Yuma (Largest city: Yuma)