2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election

The 2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick was re-elected to a second term.^[3]

2010 Massachusetts gubernatorial election

← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →
Turnout	54.81% 1.42 [1]
Nominee Deval Patrick Charlie Baker Tim Cahill Party Democratic Republican Independent Running mate Tim Murray Richard Tisei Paul Loscocco (withdrawn)[2] Popular vote 1,112,283 964,866 184,395 Percentage 48.42% 42.00% 8.03%
County results Municipality results Congressional district results Precinct results Patrick:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Baker:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70% Cahill:      40–50% Tie:      40–50%      No votes
Governor before election Deval Patrick Democratic Elected Governor Deval Patrick Democratic

Party primaries were held on September 14, though all four candidates ran unopposed in their respective primaries.^[4] Tim Murray, who ran on a ticket with Patrick, was re-elected Lieutenant Governor. This election is the only gubernatorial election since 1994 in which the two major parties did not have a woman on the gubernatorial ticket.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

• Deval Patrick, incumbent Governor^[5]

Withdrew

• Grace Ross, 2006 Green-Rainbow nominee for Governor^[6][7]

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Deval Patrick	Grace Ross
Suffolk University[8]	February 21–24, 2010	59%	15%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

• Tim Murray, incumbent Lieutenant Governor

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

• Charlie Baker, CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care and former Secretary of Administration and Finance^[9][10][11]

Eliminated at convention

• Christy Mihos, independent candidate for governor in 2006^[12][13]

Declined

• Kerry Healey, former Lieutenant Governor and nominee in 2006^[14]
• Bob Hedlund, State Senator from Weymouth^[15]
• Joe Malone, former State Treasurer ^[16] (ran for U.S. Representative)
• Michael Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney for the District of Massachusetts^[17][18]

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Charlie Baker	Christy Mihos
The Boston Globe/UNH[19]	July 15–21, 2009	27%	20%
Suffolk University[20]	November 4–8, 2009	30%	33%
Suffolk University[8]	February 21–24, 2010	47%	17%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

• Richard Tisei, Minority Leader of the Massachusetts State Senate

General election

Candidates

• Charlie Baker, CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care^[9][10][11] (Republican)

• Running mate: Richard Tisei, Minority Leader of the Massachusetts State Senate

• Tim Cahill, State Treasurer and Receiver-General^[21] (Independent)

• Running mate: Paul Loscocco, former Republican State Representative

• Deval Patrick, incumbent Governor^[5] (Democratic)

• Running mate: Tim Murray, incumbent Lieutenant Governor

• Jill Stein, medical internist and co-chairperson of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party^[22] (Green-Rainbow)

• Running mate: Richard P. Purcell, surgery clerk and ergonomics assessor^[23]

Campaign

Defection of Loscocco

On October 1, 2010, Loscocco announced that he would withdraw from the race and endorse Republican candidate Charlie Baker.^[2] Loscocco formally remained on the ballot, however.^[24] On October 7, Cahill filed a lawsuit against four former campaign aides, alleging that they conspired to undermine his candidacy and help Charlie Baker by arranging his defection.^[25] Cahill claimed that e-mails between Republican political consultants and Loscocco's top aide suggested that Loscocco may have been enticed to leave the ticket by future job promises.^[26] In response, Loscocco claimed that Cahill's top aide was coordinating strategy with the Patrick campaign and the Democratic Governors' Association and thus was never actually an independent effort.^[27]

Lottery ad

Main article: Tim Cahill corruption trial

Soon after Cahill filed suit against him, Adam Meldrum, Cahill's former campaign manager, alleged that Cahill colluded with the Massachusetts Lottery, which is overseen by the state treasurer's office, to run an ad favorable to him during the campaign. The ad, paid for by the Commonwealth, described the Massachusetts Lottery "the most successful state lottery America" and "consistently well-managed", echoing themes from Cahill's gubernatorial campaign. Both Cahill and Massachusetts Lottery Director Mark Cavanagh denied the allegations.^[25] On October 18, e-mails released in conjunction with Cahill's lawsuit appeared to reveal that the campaign attempted to have the Lottery air a series of ads that praised the lottery's management. In the e-mails, Cahill's campaign media strategist Dane Strother told Meldrum to "Get the Lottery immediately cutting a spot and get it up...Needs to focus on the Lottery being the best in the country and above reproach." Two days later, Cahill's senior adviser Scott Campbell wrote, "I think the first thing is to figure out what/where/how we want to do this ... with Lottery people."^[28]

On April 2, 2012, Cahill was indicted by a Grand Jury on charges that he used $1.65 million in Massachusetts State Lottery advertising to aid his campaign for governor.^[29] On December 12, 2012, a mistrial was declared in the corruption case after the jury failed to reach a verdict on two counts of conspiracy.^[30]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[31]	Tossup	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[32]	Tilt D	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[33]	Tossup	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[34]	Lean D	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[35]	Tossup	October 28, 2010

Polling

Poll	Date	Deval Patrick (D)	Charlie Baker (R)	Tim Cahill (I)	Jill Stein (GR)
Rasmussen Reports[36]	June 24, 2009	41%	36%	–	–
The Boston Globe/UNH[19]	July 15–21, 2009	30%	20%	30%	–
		35%	41%	–	–
Rasmussen Reports[37]	October 22, 2009	34%	24%	23%	–
Suffolk University[38]	November 4–8, 2009	38%	15%	26%	–
Rasmussen Reports[37]	November 23, 2009	33%	28%	25%	–
The Boston Globe/UNH[19]	January 2–6, 2010	30%	19%	23%	–
Public Policy Polling[39]	January 7–9, 2010	29%	27%	21%	–
Suffolk University[8]	February 21–24, 2010	33%	25%	23%	3%
Rasmussen Reports[37]	March 8, 2010	35%	32%	19%	–
Rasmussen Reports[37]	April 5, 2010	35%	27%	23%	–
April 17 – Baker secures Republican nomination at convention; Mihos eliminated
Rasmussen Reports[37]	May 10, 2010	45%	31%	14%	1%
Suffolk University[40]	May 25, 2010	42%	29%	14%	8%
Rasmussen Reports[41]	June 21, 2010	41%	34%	16%	–
The Boston Globe/UNH[42]	June 17–23, 2010	38%	31%	9%	2%
Rasmussen Reports[43]	July 22, 2010	38%	32%	17%	–
Statehouse News[44]	August 29–31, 2010	34%	28%	18%	4%
Rasmussen Reports[43]	September 1, 2010	39%	34%	18%	–
Rasmussen Reports[43]	September 17, 2010	45%	42%	5%	–
Suffolk University /7 News[45]	September 16–19, 2010	41%	34%	14%	4%
The Boston Globe/UNH[46]	September 17–22, 2010	35%	34%	11%	4%
Western New England College[47]	September 19–23, 2010	39%	33%	16%	3%
Rasmussen Reports[43]	September 30, 2010	47%	42%	6%	–
Suffolk University 7 News[48]	October 10–12, 2010	46%	39%	10%	1%
Public Opinion Strategies[49]	October 11–13, 2010	35%	42%	10%	2%
Rasmussen Reports[43]	October 18, 2010	47%	42%	6%	–
Western New England College[50]	October 22, 2010	44%	36%	8%	5%
Boston Globe[51]	October 24, 2010	43%	39%	8%	2%
Suffolk University/7News[52]	October 25–27, 2010	46%	39%	9%	2%
Rasmussen Reports[53]	October 27, 2010	46%	44%	6%	—
Western New England College[54]	October 24–28, 2010	42%	37%	11%	3%
Results (for comparison)	[November 2, 2010]	[ 48.4% ]	[ 42.0% ]	[ 8.0% ]	[ 1.4% ]

Hypothetical polling

with Christy Mihos

Poll source	Dates administered	Deval Patrick	Christy Mihos	Jill Stein	Tim Cahill
Rasmussen Reports[36]	June 24, 2009	40%	41%	––	––
The Boston Globe/UNH[19]	July 15–21, 2009	31%	18%	––	31%
		40%	41%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports[55]	August 20, 2009	35%	40%	––	––
Rasmussen Reports[37]	October 22, 2009	34%	23%	––	23%
Suffolk University[56]	November 4–8, 2009	36%	20%	––	26%
Rasmussen Reports[37]	November 23, 2009	32%	26%	––	28%
The Boston Globe/UNH[19]	January 2–6, 2010	32%	19%	––	23%
Public Policy Polling[39]	January 7–9, 2010	28%	21%	––	25%
Suffolk University[8]	February 21–24, 2010	34%	19%	3%	26%
Rasmussen Reports[37]	March 8, 2010	34%	19%	––	30%
Rasmussen Reports[37]	April 5, 2010	38%	15%	––	33%

with Grace Ross

Poll source	Dates administered	Grace Ross	Charlie Baker	Tim Cahill
Rasmussen Reports[37]	May 10, 2010	27%	32%	16%

Fundraising

As of October 31, 2010.^[57] Shading indicates candidate with the highest amount.

Candidate (Party)	Raised	Spent	Balance
Tim Cahill (I)	$570,345.01	$277,655.73	$292,689.28
Charlie Baker (R)	$736,877.30	$491,089.99	$245,787.31
Deval Patrick (D)	$606,991.19	$459,858.16	$147,133.03
Jill Stein (G)	$64,454.75	$22,068.50	$42,386.25

Results

Massachusetts gubernatorial election, 2010^[58]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Deval Patrick (incumbent)	1,112,283	48.42	7.21
	Republican	Charlie Baker	964,866	42.00	6.67
	Independent	Tim Cahill	184,395	8.03	1.06
	Green-Rainbow	Jill Stein	32,895	1.43	0.51
	Write-in	All others	2,600	0.11	0.01
Total votes			2,297,039
		Blank	22,924
Turnout			2,319,963
Majority			147,417	6.41
	Democratic hold		Swing	–13.88

By county

2010 United States gubernatorial election in Massachusetts (by county) [59]
County	Patrick %	Patrick #	Baker %	Baker #	Others %	Others #	Total #
Barnstable	43.8%	47,124	47.0%	50,609	9.2%	9,876	107,609
Berkshire	70.3%	30,269	21.5%	9,266	8.2%	3,527	43,062
Bristol	46.3%	81,059	41.8%	73,220	11.8%	20,724	175,003
Dukes	57.6%	4,908	32.3%	2,757	10.1%	862	8,527
Essex	43.2%	116,360	47.5%	127,964	9.3%	25,148	269,472
Franklin	60.8%	17,068	24.4%	6,838	14.9%	4,170	28,076
Hampden	45.4%	62,816	39.5%	54,653	15.1%	20,857	138,326
Hampshire	58.4%	33,317	28.0%	15,994	13.6%	7,752	57,063
Middlesex	50.8%	283,221	40.6%	226,272	8.7%	48,481	557,974
Nantucket	50.7%	2,454	38.2%	1,846	11.1%	538	4,838
Norfolk	43.80%	119,806	43.81%	119,850	12.4%	33,882	273,538
Plymouth	38.3%	74,355	49.8%	96,592	11.9%	23,105	194,052
Suffolk	67.0%	125,961	24.9%	46,822	8.1%	15,292	188,075
Worcester	41.4%	113,565	48.2%	132,183	10.4%	28,440	274,188

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Barnstable (largest municipality: Barnstable)
• Essex (largest municipality: Lynn)
• Norfolk (largest municipality: Quincy)
• Plymouth (largest municipality: Brockton)
• Worcester (largest municipality: Worcester)

See also

• 2009–2010 Massachusetts legislature
• 2010 United States gubernatorial elections