2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election

The 2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, to elect the 40th Governor of the U.S. state of Minnesota for a four-year term to begin in January 2011. The general election was contested by the major party candidates State Representative Tom Emmer (R–Delano), former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton (DFL), and Independence Party candidate Tom Horner. After a very close race, Dayton was elected governor.^[1] Emmer would be elected to the United States House of Representatives four years later.^[2]

2010 Minnesota gubernatorial election

← 2006 November 2, 2010 2014 →

Nominee Mark Dayton Tom Emmer Tom Horner Party Democratic (DFL) Republican Independence Running mate Yvonne Prettner Solon Annette Meeks Jim Mulder Popular vote 919,232 910,462 251,487 Percentage 43.63% 43.21% 11.94%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Dayton:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Emmer:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Horner:      30–40%      40–50%      60–70%      >90% Tie:      30–40%      40–50%      50%      No votes

Governor before election Tim Pawlenty Republican Elected Governor Mark Dayton Democratic (DFL)

This was the first time the Democrats won the governorship since Rudy Perpich won re-election in 1986. With a margin of 0.4% (or 8,770 votes), this election was the closest race of the 2010 gubernatorial election cycle.

Republican primary

After incumbent Governor Tim Pawlenty announced in June 2009 that he would not seek a third term,^[3] the field was open for Republicans to seek their party's endorsement. At the Minnesota GOP's off-year state convention in October 2009, former Representative Marty Seifert took first place in a straw poll with 37% of the vote. Representative Tom Emmer took second place with 23%, Patricia Anderson had 14%, and the rest of the participating candidates received less than 10% each.^[4][5]

Seifert had another victory in the February 2 precinct caucuses, winning a statewide straw poll of caucus attendees with 50% of the vote, followed by Emmer with 39%. None of the other candidates got beyond single digits.^[6] Delegates to the state convention, however, were more closely divided between Emmer and Seifert than the initial straw poll indicated. Both camps claimed a delegate lead throughout the process leading up to the state convention, but the outcome was uncertain and was ultimately decided on the convention floor.^[7]

On April 30, Emmer won the Republican endorsement at the party's state convention in Minneapolis. After Emmer won 56% of the vote on the second ballot, Seifert withdrew from the race and threw his support to Emmer. Emmer then chose Metropolitan Council member Annette Meeks as his running mate for lieutenant governor.^[8]

Emmer won the August 10 primary, earning a spot on the November ballot.^[9]

Candidates

Declared

• Bob Carney Jr., inventor^[10]
  • William McGaughey^[11][12]
• Leslie Davis, environmental activist^[11][13][14]
  • Gregory K. Soderberg
• Tom Emmer, state representative^[15]
  • Annette Meeks, Metropolitan Council Member
• Ole Savior, perennial candidate, artist, poet;
  • Todd "Elvis" Anderson, Elvis impersonator^[16]

Withdrew

• Patricia Anderson, former State Auditor^[17]
• Bill Haas, former state representative, former mayor of Champlin^[18]
• David Hann, state senator^[19]
• Phil Herwig, activist^[4][20]
• Mike Jungbauer, state senator, former mayor of East Bethel^[21]
• Paul Kohls, state representative^[22]
• Marty Seifert, state representative, former State House Minority Leader

Declined

• Laura Brod, state representative^[23]
• Norm Coleman, former U.S. Senator, former St. Paul mayor^[24][25]
• Paul Koering, state senator^[26][27]
• Tim Pawlenty, incumbent governor^[3]
• Jim Ramstad, former U.S. Representative^[28]
• Brian Sullivan, businessman^[29]
• Steve Sviggum, Commissioner of Labor and Industry and former State House Speaker^[30]
• Charlie Weaver, former Commissioner of Public Safety^[31]

Results

Republican primary results^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tom Emmer	107,558	82.5
	Republican	Bob Carney Jr.	9,856	7.6
	Republican	Leslie Davis	8,598	6.6
	Republican	Ole Savior	4,396	3.4
Total votes			130,408	100

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

The list of candidates seeking the DFL's nomination was long going into the February 2 caucuses, with over 11 candidates having submitted their names for the candidate preference ballot. Former U.S. Senator Mark Dayton notably declined to be included on the ballot. Minneapolis Mayor R. T. Rybak won the straw poll with 21.8% of the vote, with State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher receiving 20.1%, and "uncommitted" receiving 14.7%. The other each candidates received single-digit support.^[33][34]

Former State Senator Steve Kelley dropped out of the race after a disappointing result in the straw poll. State Senator Tom Bakk also dropped out on March 20 after announcing at the St. Louis County Convention that he believed his chances of winning were slim.

On April 24, the DFL State Convention was held in Duluth. State Senator John Marty withdrew from the race after seeing lower than expected support on the first ballot, and State Representative Tom Rukavina withdrew after the fourth ballot, endorsing Kelliher. State Representative Paul Thissen withdrew after the fifth ballot, and before the results of the sixth ballot were announced, Rybak withdrew as well, endorsing Kelliher.^[35] Kelliher was subsequently endorsed by the convention. Ramsey County Attorney Susan Gaertner, who had not sought the DFL endorsement but was planning to run in the primary, dropped out two days later. That left Kelliher facing Dayton and former State House Minority Leader Matt Entenza in the August primary.

Shortly after the end of the 2010 legislative term, all three major DFL candidates had announced their choices for lieutenant governor. On May 21, Kelliher announced that John Gunyou would be her running mate. Gunyou is Minnetonka City Manager and was state finance commissioner in Republican Governor Arne Carlson's administration.^[36] On May 24, Dayton announced Yvonne Prettner Solon as his running mate. Solon is a psychologist and three-term state senator.^[37] On May 27, Entenza announced Robyne Robinson as his running mate. Robinson is a small-business owner and former TV anchor.^[38]

Dayton narrowly won the August 10 primary, earning the right to serve as his party's nominee.^[39] He was formally endorsed by the DFL on August 21.^[40]

Candidates

Candidate Mark Dayton speaking at a debate, 2009

Declared

• Mark Dayton, former United States Senator^[41]
  • Yvonne Prettner Solon, Minnesota State Senator^[37]
• Matt Entenza, former State House Minority Leader^[42]
  • Robyne Robinson, former television personality^[38]
• Margaret Anderson Kelliher, State Speaker of the House
  • John Gunyou, Minnetonka City Manager^[36]
• Peter Idusogie
  • Lady Jayne Fontaine^[11]

Withdrew

• Tom Bakk, state senator^[43]
• Susan Gaertner, Ramsey County Attorney^[44]
• Steve Kelley, former state senator^[45][46]
• John Marty, state senator and 1994 DFL gubernatorial nominee^[45]
  • Patricia Torres Ray, state senator^[47]
• Tom Rukavina, state representative^[48]
• R.T. Rybak, Minneapolis mayor^[49]
• Paul Thissen, state representative^[50]

Declined

• Chris Coleman, Mayor of Saint Paul^[51]
• Mike Opat, Chairman of the Hennepin County Board of Commissioners^[52]

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Mark Dayton	Matt Entenza	Margaret Anderson Kelliher	Undecided	Sampling error
Survey USA[53]	August 2–4, 2010	43%	22%	27%	8%	4.5%
Minnesota Poll[54]	July 26–29, 2010	40%	17%	30%	13%	7.3%
Survey USA[55]	June 14–16, 2010	39%	22%	26%	11%	4.5%
Humphrey Institute /MPR[56]	May 13–16, 2010	38%	6%	28%	28%	8.75%

Results

Results by county:

Dayton

•   30-40%
•   40-50%
•   50-60%
•   60-70%

Kelliher

•   30–40%
•   40-50%

Entenza

•   30-40%
•   50-60%

At 11:50 p.m. on primary night, Dayton took the lead from Kelliher, who had held an ever-shrinking lead since the polls closed.

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary results^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic (DFL)	Mark Dayton	182,738	41.3
	Democratic (DFL)	Margaret Anderson Kelliher	175,767	39.8
	Democratic (DFL)	Matt Entenza	80,509	18.2
	Democratic (DFL)	Peter Idusogie	3,123	0.7
Total votes			442,137	100

Independence primary

On Sunday, May 9, 2010, Tom Horner won the endorsement of the Independence Party for governor. His main opponent, Rob Hahn, said he would contest the primary.^[57]

Horner won the August 10 primary, defeating Hahn to earn a place on the November ballot.^[9]

Candidates

• Rob Hahn^[58]
  • Thomas Harens^[11]
• Tom Horner, public affairs consultant^[59]
  • Jim Mulder^[11]
• Phil Ratté^[60][11]
  • Gayle-Lynn Lemaster^[61]
• John T. Uldrich^[11]
  • Stephen Williams
• Rahn V. Workcuff^[11]
  • Mark F. Workcuff

Withdrew

• Joe Repya, former lieutenant colonel in the U.S. Army^[62][63]

Declined

• Tim Penny, former U.S. Representative^[64]
• Dean Barkley, former U.S. Senator^[65]
• Peter Bell, Metropolitan Council Chair^[65]
• David Olson, Minnesota Chamber of Commerce President^[65]

Results

Independence Party primary results^[66]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Independence	Tom Horner	11,380	64.2
	Independence	Rob Hahn	2,538	14.3
	Independence	John T. Uldrich	1,766	10.0
	Independence	Phile Ratté	1,215	7.0
	Independence	Rahn V. Workcuff	815	4.5
Total votes			17,714	100

General election

Early polls showed Emmer even with his likely DFL opponents, with Horner trailing far behind, and a large percentage of voters undecided.^[67][68][69] As the race progressed, polls showed the candidates even, or Dayton with a small but significant lead.^[70] The nonpartisan Cook Political Report, CQ Politics and pollster Rasmussen Reports rated the gubernatorial election a tossup,^{[71][72][73][74][75]} while New York Times political statistician Nate Silver gave Dayton an 86% chance of winning and Emmer 14%.^[76]

Dayton led Emmer at the close of balloting by 8,770 votes (0.42%).^[77] The margin of victory was small enough to trigger an automatic recount under state law, but analysts generally thought it unlikely that Dayton's lead would be overturned.^[78]

Dayton became just the fourth victorious Minnesota Democrat to win a gubernatorial election with a Democrat in the White House in 28 cycles.^[79]

Candidates

• Tom Emmer (R) – State Representative; and Annette Meeks, Metropolitan Council Member^[15]
• Mark Dayton (DFL) – former United States Senator; and Yvonne Prettner Solon, Minnesota State Senator^[37][41]
• Tom Horner (IP) – public affairs consultant; and Jim Mulder^[11][59]
• Ken Pentel (EDP) and Erin Wallace^[11]
• Farheen Hakeem (G) and Dan Dittman^[11]
• Chris Wright (GR) and Edwin Engelmann^[11]
• Linda Eno (Resource Party) and Howard Hanson^[11]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report[80]	Tossup	October 14, 2010
Rothenberg[81]	Tilt D (flip)	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[82]	Tossup	November 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[83]	Lean D (flip)	October 28, 2010
CQ Politics[84]	Tossup	October 28, 2010

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll source	Dates administered	Margion of Error	Tom Emmer (R)	Mark Dayton (DFL)	Tom Horner (I)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[85]	Oct. 27 – 29, 2010	±2.2%	40%	43%	15%	3%
SurveyUSA[86]	Oct. 24 – 27, 2010	±4%	38%	39%	13%	9%
Minnesota Public Radio[87]	Oct. 21 – 25, 2010	±3.6%	29%	41%	11%	20%
St. Cloud State University[88]	Oct. 10 – 21, 2010	±5.0%	30%	40%	19%	10%
Minnesota Poll[89]	Oct. 18 – 21, 2010	±3.9%	34%	41%	13%	12%
Rasmussen Reports[90]	Oct. 20, 2010	±4.0%	41%	44%	10%	5%
Survey USA[91]	Oct. 11 – 13, 2010	±3.7%	37%	42%	14%	7%
Rasmussen Reports[90]	Oct. 6, 2010	±4%	38%	40%	15%	7%
Humphrey Institute/MPR[92]	Sep. 22 – 26, 2010	±3.6%	27%	38%	16%	19%
Minnesota Poll[93]	Sep. 20–23, 2010	±4.1%	30%	39%	18%	13%
Rasmussen Reports[90]	Sep. 22, 2010	±4%	42%	41%	9%	2%
Survey USA[94]	Sep. 12 – 14, 2010	±3.9%	36%	38%	18%	4%
Humphrey Institute/MPR[95]	Aug. 31, 2010	±5.3%	34%	34%	13%	19%
Rasmussen Reports[96]	Aug. 12, 2010	±4.0%	36%	45%	10%	10%
Survey USA[53]	Aug. 2 – 4, 2010	±2.7%	32%	46%	9%	13%
Minnesota Poll[54]	Jul. 26 – 29, 2010	±4.3%	30%	40%	13%	17%
Rasmussen Reports[97]	Jul. 19, 2010	±4.5%	36%	40%	10%	14%
Survey USA[55]	Jun. 14 – 16, 2010	±2.5%	35%	38%	12%	15%
Decision Resources, Ltd.[98]	May 28 – Jun. 2, 2010	±3.5%	28%	40%	18%	14%
Rasmussen Reports[90]	May 24, 2010	±4.5%	37%	35%	12%	16%
Humphrey Institute/MPR[99]	May 13 – 16, 2010	±5.8%	31%	35%	9%	25%
Survey USA[100]	May 3 – 5, 2010	±4.1%	42%	34%	9%	15%
Rasmussen Reports[101]	Mar. 10, 2010	±3%	35%	38%	7%	20%

Poll source	Dates administered	Tom Emmer (R)	Matt Entenza (DFL)	Tom Horner (I)	Undecided	Sampling error
Survey USA[53]	August 2–4, 2010	33%	38%	12%	17%	2.7%
Minnesota Poll[54]	July 26–29, 2010	31%	36%	15%	17%	4.3%
Rasmussen Reports[97]	July 19, 2010	36%	37%	12%	15%	4.5%
Survey USA[55]	June 14–16, 2010	37%	33%	12%	18%	2.5%
Decision Resources, Ltd.[98]	May 28 – June 2, 2010	27%	34%	19%	20%	3.5%
Rasmussen Reports[90]	May 24, 2010	37%	34%	12%	17%	4.5%
Humphrey Institute /MPR[56]	May 13–16, 2010	32%	28%	11%	29%	5.8%
Survey USA[100]	May 3–5, 2010	42%	31%	10%	16%	4.1%
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	37%	28%	8%	26%	3%

Poll source	Dates administered	Tom Emmer (R)	Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL)	Tom Horner (I)	Undecided	Sampling error
Survey USA[53]	August 2–4, 2010	33%	39%	12%	17%	2.7%
Minnesota Poll[54]	July 26–29, 2010	29%	38%	13%	18%	4.3%
Rasmussen Reports[97]	July 19, 2010	35%	40%	11%	14%	4.5%
Survey USA[55]	June 14–16, 2010	35%	33%	12%	21%	2.5%
Decision Resources, Ltd.[98]	May 28 – June 2, 2010	28%	38%	17%	17%	3.5%
Rasmussen Reports[90]	May 24, 2010	38%	36%	11%	15%	4.5%
Humphrey Institute /MPR[56]	May 13–16, 2010	32%	29%	10%	30%	5.8%
Survey USA[100]	May 3–5, 2010	41%	33%	9%	17%	4.1%
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	37%	34%	8%	19%	3%

Source	Date	Tim Pawlenty	Mark Dayton
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]	May 20, 2009	47%	43%

Source	Date	Tim Pawlenty	R. T. Rybak
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]	May 20, 2009	47%	42%

Source	Date	Tim Pawlenty	Chris Coleman
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]	May 20, 2009	48%	37%

Source	Date	Tim Pawlenty	Matt Entenza
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]	May 20, 2009	51%	37%

Source	Date	Tim Pawlenty	Susan Gaertner
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]	May 20, 2009	50%	36%

Source	Date	Tim Pawlenty	Tom Bakk
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]	May 20, 2009	52%	34%

Source	Date	Tim Pawlenty	John Marty
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]	May 20, 2009	51%	34%

Source	Date	Tim Pawlenty	Margaret Anderson Kelliher
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]	May 20, 2009	51%	34%

Source	Date	Tim Pawlenty	Paul Thissen
KSTP-TV/SurveyUSA[102]	May 20, 2009	51%	32%

Source	Date	Tom Emmer	Mark Dayton
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	35%	38%

Source	Date	Tom Emmer	Margaret Anderson Kelliher
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	37%	34%

Source	Date	Tom Emmer	R.T. Rybak
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	35%	38%

Source	Date	Tom Emmer	Tom Bakk
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	36%	29%

Source	Date	Tom Emmer	Tom Rukavina
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	38%	29%

Source	Date	Tom Emmer	Matt Entenza
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	37%	28%

Source	Date	Marty Seifert	Mark Dayton
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	39%	38%

Source	Date	Marty Seifert	Margaret Anderson Kelliher
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	39%	35%

Source	Date	Marty Seifert	R.T. Rybak
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	38%	38%

Source	Date	Marty Seifert	Tom Bakk
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	37%	30%

Source	Date	Marty Seifert	Tom Rukavina
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	39%	30%

Source	Date	Marty Seifert	Matt Entenza
Rasmussen Reports[101]	March 10, 2010	38%	30%

Source	Date	Norm Coleman	R.T. Rybak
Public Policy Polling[103]	June 7–8, 2009	37%	43%

Source	Date	Norm Coleman	Mark Dayton
Public Policy Polling[103]	June 7–8, 2009	39%	41%

Source	Date	Norm Coleman	Margaret Anderson Kelliher
Public Policy Polling[103]	June 7–8, 2009	42%	34%

Hypothetical polling

With Entenza

With Kelliher

With Pawlenty

With Emmer

With Seifert

With Coleman

Results

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

Trend by county

Legend

•   Democratic — +10-12.5%
•   Democratic — +7.5-10%
•   Democratic — +5-7.5%
•   Democratic — +2.5-5%
•   Democratic — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%

County results for the Independence Party:

Horner

•      <9%
•      9-10%
•      10-11%
•      11-12%
•      12-13%
•      13-14%
•      14-15%
•      15-16%
•      16%<

2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota^[77]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic (DFL)	Mark Dayton	919,232	43.63%	−2.07%
	Republican	Tom Emmer	910,462	43.21%	−3.49%
	Independence	Tom Horner	251,487	11.94%	+5.54%
	Grassroots	Chris Wright	7,516	0.36%	n/a
	Green	Farheen Hakeem	6,188	0.29%	−0.21%
	Ecology Democracy	Ken Pentel	6,180	0.29%	n/a
	Resource Party	Linda Eno	4,092	0.19%	n/a
	Write-ins		1,864	0.09%
Total votes			2,106,979	100
	Democratic (DFL) gain from Republican

Recount results

The recount was carried out by the Minnesota Secretary of State, Mark Ritchie, as part of a State Canvassing Board, which consists of the secretary of state, two justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court, and two judges of a Minnesota district court.^[104] The vote totals were not changed, and Dayton was declared the governor-elect.

2010 gubernatorial election results, Minnesota^[77]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic (DFL)	Mark Dayton/Yvonne Prettner Solon	919,232	43.63%	−2.07%
	Republican	Tom Emmer/Annette Meeks	910,462	43.21%	−3.49%
	Independence	Tom Horner/Jim Mulder	251,487	11.94%	+5.54%
	Grassroots	Chris Wright	7,516	0.36%	n/a
	Green	Farheen Hakeem	6,188	0.29%	−0.21%
	Ecology Democracy	Ken Pentel	6,180	0.29%	n/a
	Resource Party	Linda Eno	4,092	0.19%	n/a
	Write-ins		1,864	0.09%
Total votes			2,106,979	100
	Democratic (DFL) gain from Republican

Olmsted County, Minnesota officials recounting votes on November 29, 2010

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Clearwater (Largest city: Bagley)
• Grant (Largest city: Elbow Lake)
• Pennington (Largest city: Thief River Falls)
• Lincoln (largest city: Tyler)
• Pine (largest city: Pine City)
• Fillmore (largest city: Spring Valley)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Clay (Largest city: Moorhead)
• Nicollet (Largest city: North Mankato)