2011 Manitoba general election

The 2011 Manitoba general election was held to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. It took place on October 4, 2011, due to the new fixed-date election laws. In the outgoing legislature, the New Democratic Party of Manitoba (NDP) held 37 of the 57 seats, the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba (PC Party) held 19 of the 57 seats and the Liberal Party of Manitoba held one of the 57 seats, after Kevin Lamoureux resigned his seat in the riding of Inkster to run as a Liberal candidate in a federal by-election.^[1]

2011 Manitoba general election

← 2007 October 4, 2011 (2011-10-04) 2016 →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	55.77%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Greg Selinger Hugh McFadyen Jon Gerrard Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal Leader since October 17, 2009 April 29, 2006 October 17, 1998 Leader's seat St. Boniface Fort Whyte River Heights Last election 36 seats, 48.00% 19 seats, 37.89% 2 seats, 12.39% Seats won 37 19 1 Seat change 1 1 Popular vote 199,066 188,528 32,420 Percentage 46.16% 43.71% 7.52% Swing 1.84% 5.97% 4.60%
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
Premier before election Greg Selinger New Democratic Premier after election Greg Selinger New Democratic

Following the last census, electoral district boundaries were adjusted. There are 57 electoral districts.

Despite being perceived as a tight race in the run-up to voting, with The Globe and Mail expecting it to be the "closest in more than a decade",^[2] the NDP won its fourth consecutive term in government, taking 37 seats, an improvement of one from the 2007 election – thus gaining their largest majority ever in the Assembly – whilst the Progressive Conservatives failed to make any gains beyond closing the gap in the popular vote, and not a single incumbent was defeated.^[3] The PC leader Hugh McFadyen announced shortly thereafter that he would resign his post. Also facing a disappointing result in the election, Liberal leader Jon Gerrard also announced shortly after the election that he would resign his post once the party crowned a new leader in 2013.^[4]

Reorganization of electoral divisions

In 2006, the Electoral Divisions Act was amended to provide for the creation of a permanent commission to determine any necessary redistribution of seats in the Legislative Assembly by the end of 2008, and then every tenth year thereafter.^[5] Its final report would take effect upon the dissolution of the relevant Legislature. Following a series of hearings and an interim report,^[6] the commission's final report was issued in December 2008, which provided for the following changes:^[7]

Abolished ridings	New ridings
New ridings
	Dawson Trail[a 1]
Reorganization of ridings
Carman Pembina	Midland Morden-Winkler
Dauphin-Roblin Ste. Rose	Agassiz Dauphin
Merger of ridings
Minnedosa Russell	Riding Mountain
Renaming of ridings
Fort Garry	Fort Richmond
Inkster	Tyndall Park
Lord Roberts	Fort Garry-Riverview[a 2]
Rupertsland	Kewatinook
Springfield	St. Paul
Turtle Mountain	Spruce Woods
Wellington	Logan

1. from parts of La Vérendrye and Morris
2. with parts going to Fort Rouge and River Heights

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring
Party		Riding	Incumbent
	NDP	Burrows	Doug Martindale[8]
		Elmwood	Bill Blaikie[9]
		Flin Flon	Gerard Jennissen[10]
		Lord Roberts	Diane McGifford[11]
		Point Douglas	George Hickes[12]
		St. James	Bonnie Korzeniowski[13]
		St. Norbert	Marilyn Brick[12]
		Swan River	Rosann Wowchuk[14]
	Progressive Conservative	Brandon West	Rick Borotsik[15]
		Lac du Bonnet	Gerald Hawranik[16]
		Pembina	Peter George Dyck[17]
		Portage la Prairie	David Faurschou[18]
		Russell	Len Derkach[19]
Resigned
	Liberal	Inkster	Kevin Lamoureux

Party leaderships

The Green Party and the NDP chose new leaders since the last general election.

On August 27, 2009 Premier Gary Doer, after being Premier of Manitoba for ten years announced his resignation as Premier and leader of the NDP. The following day he was appointed Canada's Ambassador to the United States.^[20][21]

Three candidates entered the campaign to replace Doer: Steve Ashton, Greg Selinger and Andrew Swan. On September 28, 2009, Swan bowed out of the race and endorsed Selinger. Some pundits believe this was an attempt to stop Steve Ashton from becoming leader.^[22]

Ashton, first seen as a minor candidate, ended up being a heavy-weight and, gaining momentum, scored big victories in some ridings, however it wasn't enough to convince many MLAs or win union endorsement. Selinger won the leadership election on October 17, 2009 with 65.75% of the ballot. His victory was achieved in large part by being backed by unions and the vast majority of the party elite.^[21][23]

2009 New Democratic Party of Manitoba leadership election
Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Greg Selinger	1,317	65.75%
Steve Ashton	685	34.20%
Spoiled ballots	1	0.05%
Total	2,003	100.00%

The Green Party elected James Beddome to a two-year term party leader on November 15, 2008, defeating incumbent Andrew Basham and third candidate Shane Nestruck. After his victory, he said that he would work toward running a full slate of candidates in the next provincial election. He was the party's candidate for a by-election in the northeast Winnipeg division of Elmwood in early 2009.

Election campaign

Election signs for the major parties in the riding of The Maples.

Issues

Bipole III

Manitoba Hydro planned an alternative hydro-electric transmission line to Bipole I and II routes running through the Interlake region in Manitoba. Initially it planned a more easterly route to the east of Lake Winnipeg. The NDP ignored the expert opinion of Manitoba Hydro and decided to build the line on the west side of the province at a cost of $4.1 billion. Further, the NDP proposed the creation of a large UNESCO environmental heritage site named Pimachiowin Aki. Just days before his retirement as premier, Doer announced that the government would donate $10 million to the trust fund for UNESCO World Heritage site on the east side of Lake Winnipeg.^[24] The NDP claimed that an east side Bipole III route would jeopardise the UNESCO site and claimed that a heritage site would benefit First Nations communities more.^[25] The NDP proposed a longer, more expensive, alternative route through the west of Manitoba to preserve the environmental integrity of the east side. Subject to the Environmental Impact Statement to be completed in June 2011, the construction of the line will begin in the winter of 2012, one year after the election.^[26]

Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen opposes the western route stating that it would cost $1 billion to $1.75 billion more, it would destroy more trees, 15 out of 16 First Nations believed the Bipole III would be more economically beneficial, and would be more at risk from disasters as the Bipole lines in the Interlake.^[25] McFadyen promised that if elected he would cancel the western route, and build it down the east side.^[27] McFadyen also supported the UNESCO site on the east side and claims that Bipole III would not jeopardise the World Heritage Site.^[24][25]

Liberal leader Jon Gerrard proposed that instead of building the line down the east or west, Manitoba Hydro should put the cable under Lake Winnipeg as proposed by Dr. John Ryan, retired University of Winnipeg professor in 2008.^[28] In the fall of 2010 Gerrard asked Manitoba Hydro CEO Bob Brennan if he had inquired into the Lake Winnipeg route. Brennan said that he had not. Gerrard promised to build the line through Lake Winnipeg if elected.^[29]

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other
Angus Reid Public Opinion	September 30 – October 2, 2011	[p 1]	46	43	8	3	0
Probe Research Inc	September 21–28, 2011	[p 2]	46	43	7	4
Environics	September 26, 2011	[p 3]	42	45	10
Viewpoints Research	September 14–21, 2011	[p 4]	41	32	5
Probe Research Inc	June 29, 2011	[p 5]	44	44	9		3
Probe Research Inc	March 23, 2011	[p 6]	35	47	14		4
Probe Research Inc	November 25–Dec. 12, 2010	[p 7]	38	42	15		5
Angus Reid Public Opinion	November 7–15, 2010	[p 8]	37	46	13	4	1
Probe Research Inc	September 30, 2010	[p 9]	40	42	12		6
Angus Reid Public Opinion	September 21, 2010	[p 10]	34	49	12	4	1
Viewpoints Research	September 15, 2010	[p 11]	39	38	14	8	1
Probe Research Inc	July 3, 2010	[p 12]	41	40	13		6
Angus Reid Public Opinion	June 10, 2010	[p 13]	36	48	12	3	1
Probe Research Inc	March 29, 2010	[p 14]	42	39	11	8	0
Angus Reid Public Opinion	March 18, 2010	[p 15]	37	44	13	3	3
Probe Research Inc	December 2009	[p 16]	47	37	11	4	1
Probe Research Inc	September 2009	[p 17]	45	38	12		5
Probe Research Inc	July 2009	[p 17]	45	36	14		5
Environics	June 2009	[p 18]	43	35	22
Environics	April 2009	[p 18]	49	37	12		2
Probe Research Inc	March 2009	[p 17]	46	36	13		5
Probe Research Inc	December 2008	[p 17]	41	43	10		6
Probe Research Inc	September 2008	[p 17]	43	39	13		5
Probe Research Inc	June 2008	[p 17]	46	36	13		5
Probe Research Inc	March 2008	[p 17]	46	38	13		3
Election 2007	May 22, 2007		48.00%	37.89%	12.39%	1.34%	0.39%
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link					Other
			NDP	PC	Liberal	Green

Leadership approval rating

Polling Firm	Date of Polling	Link	Greg Selinger	Hugh McFadyen	Jon Gerrard
Probe Research Inc	July 3, 2010		49	41	35
	Disapproval rating		22	26	29

Results

Of 777,054 registered voters, 55.77% or 433,346 cast votes in the election.^[30] Although this is slightly lower than the 2007 election, voter turnout in Manitoba has generally declined since the mid-1970s when it reached 78.3% in the 1973 general election.^[31] About 78,500 voters took advantage of advance polls, more than any previous election.^[32]

Summary of the October 4, 2011 Manitoba Legislature election

Party		Party leader	Candidates	Seats				Popular vote
				2007	Dissol.	2011	% Change	#	%	% Change
	New Democratic	Greg Selinger	57	36	36	37	+2.78%	199,069	46.16	−1.84
	Progressive Conservative	Hugh McFadyen	57	19	18	19	0.00%	188,535	43.71	+5.97
	Liberal	Jon Gerrard	57	2	1	1	−50.00%	32,418	7.52	−4.60
	Green	James Beddome	32	0	0	0	−	10,886	2.52	+1.18
	Communist	Darrell Rankin	4	0	0	0	−	179	0.04	-0.05
	Independent		1	0	0	0	−	215	0.05	-0.25
	Vacant				2
Total Valid Votes			208	57	57	57	−	431,302	55.77%	-0.98%

Vote and seat summaries

Ternary plots – shift of electoral support (2007–2011)

• 
  2007
• 
  2011

Electoral districts identified by colours of winning parties

Popular vote New Democratic   46.16% PC   43.71% Liberal   7.52% Green   2.52% Others   0.09%

Seat Count New Democratic   64.91% PC   33.33% Liberal   1.75%

Synopsis of results

2011 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results^[33][34]

Electoral division	Winning party										Votes
	2007		1st place		Votes	Share	Margin #	Margin %	2nd place		NDP	PC	Lib	Grn	Ind	Comm	Total
Agassiz	New			PC	4,396	71.05%	3,332	53.85%		NDP	1,064	4,396	411	316	–	–	6,187
Arthur-Virden		PC		PC	4,983	65.97%	2,701	35.76%		NDP	2,282	4,983	288	–	–	–	7,553
Assiniboia		NDP		NDP	5,095	58.22%	1,837	20.99%		PC	5,095	3,258	194	204	–	–	8,751
Brandon East		NDP		NDP	3,864	54.95%	1,153	16.40%		PC	3,864	2,711	280	177	–	–	7,032
Brandon West		PC		PC	4,231	48.68%	151	1.74%		NDP	4,080	4,231	381	–	–	–	8,692
Burrows		NDP		NDP	3,063	59.34%	1,749	33.88%		PC	3,063	1,314	629	124	–	32	5,162
Charleswood		PC		PC	4,838	55.83%	2,237	25.81%		NDP	2,601	4,838	755	472	–	–	8,666
Concordia		NDP		NDP	4,008	63.06%	2,205	34.69%		PC	4,008	1,803	237	308	–	–	6,356
Dauphin	New			NDP	4,483	54.93%	1,127	13.81%		PC	4,483	3,356	124	199	–	–	8,162
Dawson Trail	New			NDP	4,291	52.55%	737	9.03%		PC	4,291	3,554	321	–	–	–	8,166
Elmwood		NDP		NDP	3,864	54.61%	1,465	20.70%		PC	3,864[a 1]	2,399	467	346	–	–	7,076
Emerson		PC		PC	3,982	72.65%	2,898	52.87%		NDP	1,084	3,982	415	–	–	–	5,481
Flin Flon		NDP		NDP	1,890	57.13%	1,093	33.04%		PC	1,890	797	510	111	–	–	3,308
Fort Garry-Riverview		NDP		NDP	5,146	55.55%	2,094	22.61%		PC	5,146	3,052	666	399	–	–	9,263
Fort Richmond		NDP		NDP	4,026	53.47%	1,118	14.85%		PC	4,026	2,908	369	226	–	–	7,529
Fort Rouge		NDP		NDP	4,501	51.26%	2,470	28.13%		Lib	4,501	1,770	2,031	478	–	–	8,780
Fort Whyte		PC		PC	5,594	62.44%	2,939	32.81%		NDP	2,655	5,594	710	–	–	–	8,959
Gimli		NDP		NDP	5,012	51.52%	802	8.24%		PC	5,012	4,210	197	309	–	–	9,728
Interlake		NDP		NDP	3,374	50.46%	471	7.04%		PC	3,374	2,903	194	–	215	–	6,686
Kewatinook		NDP		NDP	2,043	57.15%	654	18.29%		PC	2,043	1,389	49	94	–	–	3,575
Kildonan		NDP		NDP	4,808	59.51%	1,928	23.86%		PC	4,808	2,880	391	–	–	–	8,079
Kirkfield Park		NDP		NDP	4,928	46.75%	21	0.20%		PC	4,928	4,907	367	339	–	–	10,541
La Vérendrye		NDP		PC	4,487	64.07%	2,657	37.94%		NDP	1,830	4,487	351	335	–	–	7,003
Lac du Bonnet		PC		PC	4,350	54.30%	1,263	15.77%		NDP	3,087	4,350	284	290	–	–	8,011
Lakeside		PC		PC	5,043	65.80%	3,058	39.90%		NDP	1,985	5,043	257	379	–	–	7,664
Logan		NDP		NDP	2,985	58.75%	2,117	41.67%		Lib	2,985	840	868	335	–	53	5,081
Midland	New			PC	5,139	69.45%	3,389	45.80%		NDP	1,750	5,139	511	–	–	–	7,400
Minto		NDP		NDP	3,615	66.40%	2,782	51.10%		PC	3,615	833	609	331	–	56	5,444
Morden-Winkler	New			PC	4,918	85.53%	4,259	74.07%		NDP	659	4,918	173	–	–	–	5,750
Morris		PC		PC	5,681	74.00%	4,194	54.63%		NDP	1,487	5,681	509	–	–	–	7,677
Point Douglas		NDP		NDP	3,806	73.28%	2,889	55.62%		PC	3,806	917	257	176	–	38	5,194
Portage la Prairie		PC		PC	3,584	52.24%	886	12.91%		NDP	2,698	3,584	579	–	–	–	6,861
Radisson		NDP		NDP	5,033	55.14%	1,445	15.83%		PC	5,033	3,588	506	–	–	–	9,127
Riding Mountain	New			PC	4,465	58.47%	1,832	23.99%		NDP	2,633	4,465	272	267	–	–	7,637
Riel		NDP		NDP	5,352	54.90%	1,436	14.73%		PC	5,352	3,916	480	–	–	–	9,748
River East		PC		PC	5,247	51.34%	735	7.19%		NDP	4,512	5,247	188	274	–	–	10,221
River Heights		Lib		Lib	4,756	45.92%	1,367	13.20%		PC	1,843	3,389	4,756	370	–	–	10,358
Rossmere		NDP		NDP	5,392	56.59%	1,962	20.59%		PC	5,392	3,430	356	351	–	–	9,529
Seine River		NDP		NDP	5,500	53.07%	931	8.98%		PC	5,500	4,569	295	–	–	–	10,364
Selkirk		NDP		NDP	4,279	56.02%	1,271	16.64%		PC	4,279	3,008	351	–	–	–	7,638
Southdale		NDP		NDP	5,662	52.01%	764	7.02%		PC	5,662	4,898	327	–	–	–	10,887
Spruce Woods		PC		PC	4,495	66.65%	2,565	38.03%		NDP	1,930	4,495	319	–	–	–	6,744
St. Boniface		NDP		NDP	5,914	68.87%	4,377	50.97%		PC	5,914	1,537	606	530	–	–	8,587
St. James		NDP		NDP	4,432	49.75%	1,018	11.43%		PC	4,432	3,414	685	377	–	–	8,908
St. Johns		NDP		NDP	4,157	65.96%	2,752	43.67%		PC	4,157	1,405	348	392	–	–	6,302
St. Norbert		NDP		NDP	3,966	45.15%	31	0.35%		PC	3,966	3,935	883	–	–	–	8,784
St. Paul		PC		PC	5,554	59.59%	2,063	22.13%		NDP	3,491	5,554	276	–	–	–	9,321
St. Vital		NDP		NDP	5,023	60.08%	2,147	25.68%		PC	5,023	2,876	461	–	–	–	8,360
Steinbach		PC		PC	5,469	85.49%	4,981	77.86%		NDP	488	5,469	440	–	–	–	6,397
Swan River		NDP		NDP	4,280	56.15%	1,202	15.77%		PC	4,280	3,078	264	–	–	–	7,622
The Maples		NDP		NDP	3,894	51.83%	1,951	25.97%		PC	3,894	1,943	1,395	281	–	–	7,513
The Pas		NDP		NDP	2,995	73.61%	2,036	50.04%		PC	2,995	959	115	–	–	–	4,069
Thompson		NDP		NDP	2,586	68.52%	1,518	40.22%		PC	2,586	1,068	120	–	–	–	3,774
Transcona		NDP		NDP	4,488	58.23%	1,820	23.61%		PC	4,488	2,668	551	–	–	–	7,707
Tuxedo		PC		PC	4,839	52.74%	2,509	27.34%		NDP	2,330	4,839	1,516	491	–	–	9,176
Tyndall Park		Lib		NDP	2,596	45.16%	589	10.25%		Lib	2,596	908	2,007	237	–	–	5,748
Wolseley		NDP		NDP	4,229	60.73%	2,861	41.08%		Green	4,229	850	517	1,368	–	–	6,964

1. Jim Maloway had previously been MLA for Elmwood between 1986 and 2008.

  = open seat

  = winning candidate was in previous Legislature

  = incumbent had switched allegiance

  = previously incumbent in another riding

  = incumbency arose from a byelection gain

  = not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature

  = other incumbents renominated

  = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada

  = multiple candidates

Turnout, winning shares and swings

Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2007)^[33][34]

Riding and winning party				Turnout				Vote share[a 1]				Swing[a 2]
				%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			To	Change (pp)
Agassiz		PC		46.01				71.05
Arthur-Virden		PC	Hold	51.91	-4.89			65.97	1.92			PC	1.26
Assiniboia		NDP	Hold	62.00	0.15			58.22	-3.99			PC	-4.47
Brandon East		NDP	Hold	53.12	-5.60			54.95	1.00			NDP	0.27
Brandon West		PC	Hold	59.79	-7.02			48.68	0.63			PC	0.58
Burrows		NDP	Hold	47.08	-3.03			59.34	-11.41			PC	-9.05
Charleswood		PC	Hold	61.09	1.66			55.83	1.21			PC	1.51
Concordia		NDP	Hold	49.79	2.37			63.06	-5.99			PC	-6.37
Dauphin		NDP		62.09				54.93
Dawson Trail		NDP		58.18				52.55
Elmwood		NDP	Hold	52.56	2.58			54.61	-6.90			PC	-9.90
Emerson		PC	Hold	44.42	-5.09			72.65	12.54			PC	7.09
Flin Flon		NDP	Hold	35.34	-0.91			57.13	-20.46			Lib	-6.74
Fort Garry-Riverview		NDP	Hold	65.06	9.49			55.55	-2.57			PC	-8.93
Fort Richmond		NDP	Hold	62.91	-3.15			53.47	0.87			PC	-6.00
Fort Rouge		NDP	Hold	61.22	-1.07			51.26	4.29			NDP	5.85
Fort Whyte		PC	Hold	61.91	2.76			62.44	10.49			PC	7.34
Gimli		NDP	Hold	65.98	3.07			51.52	-7.22			PC	-8.21
Interlake		NDP	Hold	53.36	-3.17			50.46	-9.04			PC	-8.26
Kewatinook		NDP	Hold	35.68	2.18			57.15	-1.31			PC	-2.13
Kildonan		NDP	Hold	54.97	-3.60			59.51	-2.12			PC	-4.37
Kirkfield Park		NDP	Hold	68.97	-0.24			46.75	-2.57			PC	-5.50
La Verendrye		PC	Gain	53.61	-6.45			64.07	26.25			PC	-25.62
Lac du Bonnet		PC	Hold	58.04	-0.48			54.30	-4.71			NDP	-4.81
Lakeside		PC	Hold	57.12	-0.52			65.80	9.61			PC	8.47
Logan		NDP	Hold	48.04	1.99			58.75	4.79			NDP	2.31
Midland		PC		51.35				69.45
Minto		NDP	Hold	46.43	-4.00			66.40	2.78			NDP	6.78
Morden-Winkler		PC		40.78				85.53
Morris		PC	Hold	50.69	-3.44			74.00	17.02			PC	15.11
Point Douglas		NDP	Hold	44.04	3.90			73.28	6.92			NDP	8.34
Portage la Prairie		PC	Hold	50.99	-6.23			52.24	3.93			PC	3.50
Radisson		NDP	Hold	61.48	1.24			55.14	-1.58			PC	-2.81
Riding Mountain		PC		54.01				58.47
Riel		NDP	Hold	64.14	1.10			54.90	-2.42			PC	-5.95
River East		PC	Hold	67.00	-0.57			51.34	4.49			PC	3.32
River Heights		Liberal	Hold	72.51	3.16			45.92	-5.15			PC	-6.38
Rossmere		NDP	Hold	60.07	-1.63			56.59	-4.12			PC	-3.69
Seine River		NDP	Hold	70.82	7.56			53.07	-3.81			PC	-7.85
Selkirk		NDP	Hold	54.77	-4.41			56.02	0.38			PC	-1.59
Southdale		NDP	Hold	70.13	4.39			52.01	0.96			PC	-2.15
Spruce Woods		PC	Hold	48.64	-5.75			66.65	0.56			NDP	-2.73
St. Boniface		NDP	Hold	59.50	-0.06			68.87	2.83			NDP	4.69
St. James		NDP	Hold	62.02	2.89			49.75	-6.13			PC	-6.75
St. Johns		NDP	Hold	48.34	-3.11			65.96	-2.86			PC	-4.28
St. Norbert		NDP	Hold	64.25	-1.22			45.15	-8.59			PC	-10.72
St. Paul		PC	Hold	58.28	1.50			59.59	1.13			NDP	-3.13
St. Vital		NDP	Hold	60.35	1.89			60.08	-1.46			PC	-6.23
Steinbach		PC	Hold	49.66	-0.32			85.49	2.51			PC	1.77
Swan River		NDP	Hold	59.66	-5.56			56.15	-2.25			PC	-2.49
The Maples		NDP	Hold	54.91	-0.14			51.83	-4.33			PC	-0.39
The Pas		NDP	Hold	30.40	-6.23			73.61	4.74			NDP	1.31
Thompson		NDP	Hold	36.72	-3.10			68.52	-5.38			NDP	3.70
Transcona		NDP	Hold	51.24	2.44			58.23	-10.50			PC	-11.48
Tuxedo		PC	Hold	62.31	1.78			52.74	5.48			PC	5.41
Tyndall Park		NDP	Gain	51.50	-9.95			45.16	10.81			NDP	-16.81
Wolseley		NDP	Hold	55.60	0.32			60.73	-3.16			Green	-5.36

1. Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2007.
2. Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2007; negative points to 2007's second-place party being swung to.

Changes in party shares

Share change analysis by party and riding (2011 vs 2007)^[33][34]

Riding	Green				Liberal				NDP				PC
	%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)
Agassiz	5.11	New			6.64	New			17.20	New			71.05	New
Arthur-Virden					3.81	-1.32			30.21	-0.60			65.97	1.92
Assiniboia	2.33	2.33			2.22	-3.30			58.22	-3.99			37.23	4.95
Brandon East	2.52	2.52			3.98	-3.97			54.95	1.00			38.55	0.46
Brandon West					4.38	0.34			46.94	-0.54			48.68	0.63
Burrows	2.40	2.40			12.19	1.69			59.34	-11.41			25.46	6.69
Charleswood	5.45	5.45			8.71	-4.86			30.01	-1.80			55.83	1.21
Concordia	4.85	1.52			3.73	-2.28			63.06	-5.99			28.37	6.75
Dauphin	2.44	New			1.52	New			54.93	New			41.12	New
Dawson Trail	–	New			3.93	New			52.55	New			43.52	New
Elmwood	4.89	4.89			6.60	-10.88			54.61	-6.90			33.90	12.89
Emerson					7.57	-10.89			19.78	-1.65			72.65	12.54
Flin Flon	3.36	3.36			15.42	-6.98			57.13	-20.46			24.09	24.09
Fort Garry-Riverview	4.31	-4.16			7.19	-8.56			55.55	-2.57			32.95	15.29
Fort Richmond	3.00	-0.26			4.90	-13.49			53.47	0.87			38.62	12.87
Fort Rouge	5.44	-0.83			23.13	-7.40			51.26	4.29			20.16	5.41
Fort Whyte					7.92	-6.29			29.64	-4.20			62.44	10.49
Gimli	3.18	3.18			2.03	-5.16			51.52	-7.22			43.28	9.20
Interlake					2.90	-1.64			50.46	-9.04			43.42	7.47
Kewatinook	2.63	2.63			1.37	-4.27			57.15	-1.31			38.85	2.95
Kildonan	–	-2.51			4.84	-2.00			59.51	-2.12			35.65	6.63
Kirkfield Park	3.22	3.22			3.48	-9.08			46.75	-2.57			46.55	8.43
La Verendrye	4.78	4.78			5.01	-1.22			26.13	-24.99			64.07	26.25
Lac du Bonnet	3.62	3.62			3.55	-3.82			38.53	4.91			54.30	-4.71
Lakeside	4.95	0.54			3.35	-2.81			25.90	-7.34			65.80	9.61
Logan	6.59	6.59			17.08	0.17			58.75	4.79			16.53	3.41
Midland	–	New			6.91	New			23.65	New			69.45	New
Minto	6.08	6.08			11.19	-10.77			66.40	2.78			15.30	2.82
Morden-Winkler	–	New			3.01	New			11.46	New			85.53	New
Morris					6.63	-3.82			19.37	-13.20			74.00	17.02
Point Douglas	3.39	-1.92			4.95	-9.77			73.28	6.92			17.65	5.68
Portage la Prairie					8.44	-0.85			39.32	-3.08			52.24	3.93
Radisson					5.54	-2.45			55.14	-1.58			39.31	4.03
Riding Mountain	3.50	New			3.56	New			34.48	New			58.47	New
Riel					4.92	-7.07			54.90	-2.42			40.17	9.49
River East	2.68	2.68			1.84	-5.02			44.14	-2.14			51.34	4.49
River Heights	3.57	-0.48			45.92	-5.15			17.79	-1.98			32.72	7.61
Rossmere	3.68	3.68			3.74	-2.82			56.59	-4.12			36.00	3.26
Seine River					2.85	-8.08			53.07	-3.81			44.09	11.89
Selkirk					4.60	-3.95			56.02	0.38			39.38	3.56
Southdale					3.00	-6.21			52.01	0.96			44.99	5.25
Spruce Woods					4.73	-6.58			28.62	6.03			66.65	0.56
St. Boniface	6.17	-0.70			7.06	-6.55			68.87	2.83			17.90	5.01
St. James	4.23	-0.26			7.69	-0.97			49.75	-6.13			38.33	7.36
St. Johns	6.22	1.48			5.52	-4.32			65.96	-2.86			22.29	5.70
St. Norbert					10.05	-4.26			45.15	-8.59			44.80	12.85
St. Paul					2.96	-8.52			37.45	7.39			59.59	1.13
St. Vital	–	-4.68			5.51	-4.84			60.08	-1.46			34.40	10.99
Steinbach	–	-3.62			6.88	2.14			7.63	-1.03			85.49	2.51
Swan River					3.46	-0.49			56.15	-2.25			40.38	2.74
The Maples	3.74	3.74			18.57	4.16			51.83	-4.33			25.86	-3.56
The Pas					2.83	-6.86			73.61	4.74			23.57	2.12
Thompson					3.18	-12.79			68.52	-5.38			28.30	18.17
Transcona					7.15	-1.96			58.23	-10.50			34.62	12.46
Tuxedo	5.35	5.35			16.52	-5.48			25.39	-5.35			52.74	5.48
Tyndall Park	4.12	4.12			34.92	-22.81			45.16	10.81			15.80	7.88
Wolseley	19.64	7.57			7.42	-4.01			60.73	-3.16			12.21	0.89

  = did not field a candidate in 2007

By-elections since 2011

v t e Manitoba provincial by-election, April 22, 2015: The Pas
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	New Democratic	Amanda Lathlin	1,557	56.47	-16.74
	Progressive Conservative	Jacob Nasekapow	817	29.63	+6.18
	Liberal	Inez Vystrcil-Spence	369	13.38	+10.56
Total valid votes			2,743	100.00
Rejected and declined votes			14
Turnout			2,757	22.10
Electors on the lists			12,475
	New Democratic hold		Swing

Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Arthur-Virden
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Progressive Conservative	Doyle Piwniuk	3,137	68.20	+2.23
	Liberal	Floyd Buhler	738	16.04	+12.23
	New Democratic	Bob Senff	480	10.43	-19.78
	Green	Kate Storey	245	5.33
Total valid votes			4,600	100.00
Rejected and declined votes			10
Turnout			4,610	33.55
Electors on the lists			13,739
	Progressive Conservative hold		Swing		-5.00

Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Morris
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%	Expenditures
	Progressive Conservative	Shannon Martin	2,642	69.99	-4.01
	New Democratic	Dean Harder	488	12.93	-6.44
	Liberal	Jeremy Barber	422	11.18	+4.55
	Independent	Ray Shaw	138	3.66	-
	Green	Alain Landry	85	2.25	-
Total valid votes			3,775
Rejected and declined votes			17
Turnout			3,792	27.51
Electors on the lists			13,782
	Progressive Conservative hold		Swing		+1.21

Manitoba provincial by-election, September 4, 2012 Resignation of Hugh McFadyen: Fort Whyte
Party	Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Progressive Conservative	Brian Pallister	3,626	55.14	-6.99
	Liberal	Bob Axworthy	2,069	31.47	+23.59
	New Democratic	Bonny Schmidt	739	11.24	-18.25
	Green	Donnie H.J Benham	113	1.73	+1.73
	Independent	Darrell Ackman	19	0.03	+0.03
Spoiled/rejected votes			10
turnout			41.64
Total valid votes			6,576	100.00	[35]