2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico

The 2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives as well as various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman decided to retire instead of running for reelection to a sixth term.^[1] Democratic U.S. Representative Martin Heinrich won the open seat.

2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico

← 2006 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2018 →

Nominee Martin Heinrich Heather Wilson Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 395,717 351,259 Percentage 51.01% 45.28%

County results Congressional district results Heinrich:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Wilson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%

U.S. senator before election Jeff Bingaman Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich Democratic

Background

Incumbent Jeff Bingaman won re-election to a fifth term with 70.61% of the vote against Allen McCulloch in the 2006 U.S. senatorial election in New Mexico.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Hector Balderas, state auditor^[2]
• Martin Heinrich, U.S. Representative^[3]

Withdrew

• Martin Chávez, former Albuquerque mayor and 1998 Democratic gubernatorial nominee (withdrew to run for U.S. House)^[4][5]
• Andres Valdez, anti-police brutality social justice activist^[6]

Declined

• Jeff Bingaman, incumbent U.S. senator^[1]
• Diane Denish, former New Mexico lieutenant governor and 2010 Democratic gubernatorial nominee^[7][8]
• Ben Ray Luján, U.S. representative^[9]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Hector Balderas	Martin Heinrich	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[10]	June 23–26, 2011	400	± 4.9%	24%	47%	—	29%
Magellan Strategies[11]	July 17–18, 2011	636	± 3.9%	21%	54%	—	25%
Public Policy Polling[12]	December 10–12, 2011	309	± 5.6%	30%	47%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling[13]	April 19–22, 2012	270	± 6%	27%	51%	—	22%
Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling[14]	May 21–24, 2012	741	± 3.6%	26%	51%	—	23%

Endorsements

Martin Heinrich

Federal officials

• Raúl Grijalva, U.S. Representative for Arizona's 7th congressional district^[15]

State officials

• Patricia Madrid, former Attorney General

New Mexico state senators

• Dede Feldman
• Tim Keller
• Cisco McSorley
• Jerry Ortiz y Pino

New Mexico state representatives

• Eliseo Alcon
• Eleanor Chavez
• Joni Guiterrez
• Bill O'Neill
• Danice Picraux
• Jeff Steinborn
• Mimi Stewart
• J. Paul Taylor

New Mexico Mayors

• David Coss, Mayor of Santa Fe^[16]
• Joe Maestas, former Mayor of Española^[16]
• Bob Rosebrough, former Mayor of Gallup^[16]

Unions

• American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees^[17]
• International Association of Machinists^[17]
• International Brotherhood of Teamsters^[17]
• New Mexico Building and Construction Trades Council^[17]
• New Mexico Communication Workers for America^[17]
• Service Employees International Union^[17]
• United Food and Commercial Workers^[17]
• United Steelworkers of America^[17]
• United Transportation Union^[17]

Organizations

• Council for a Livable World^[17]
• Defenders of Wildlife^[17]
• League of Conservation Voters^[17]
• NARAL Pro-Choice America^[18]
• National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare^[17]
• Planned Parenthood^[19]
• Sierra Club^[17]

Hector Balderas

State officials

• Diane Denish, former New Mexico Lieutenant Governor^[20]

New Mexico state senators

• Carlos Cisneros^[20]
• Phil Griego^[20]
• Richard Martinez^[20]
• Cynthia Nava^[20]
• Mary Kay Papen^[20]
• Bernadette Sanchez^[20]
• David Ulibarri^[20]

New Mexico state representatives

• Joseph Cervantes^[20]
• Mary Helen Garcia^[20]
• Miguel Garcia^[20]
• Thomas Garcia^[20]
• Antonio Lujan^[20]
• Jim Trujillo^[20]
• Lucky Varela^[20]

New Mexico Mayors

• Steve Brockett, former Mayor of Alamogordo^[20]
• Darren Cordova, Mayor of Taos^[20]
• Danny Cruz, Mayor of Springer^[20]
• Tony Jaramillo, Mayor of Socorro^[20]
• Robert Vialpando, Mayor of Los Lunas^[20]

Results

Results by county

  Heinrich

•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

  Balderas

•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

Democratic primary results^[21]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Martin Heinrich	83,432	58.9
	Democratic	Hector Balderas	58,128	41.1
Total votes			141,560	100

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Greg Sowards, businessman^[22]
• Heather Wilson, former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008^[23]

Withdrew

• Bill English, businessman^[24]
• John Sanchez, Lieutenant Governor of New Mexico and nominee for governor in 2002^[25]

Declined

• Janice Arnold-Jones, former state representative^[23]
• Gary Johnson, former governor (ran for President)^[26]
• Steve Pearce, U.S. Representative, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2000, and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2008^[27]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill English	John Sanchez	Greg Sowards	Heather Wilson	Other	Undecided
Magellan Strategies[28]	April 26–27, 2011	801	± 3.5%	—	17%	2%	59%	11%	11%
Public Policy Polling[10]	June 23–26, 2011	400	± 4.9%	4%	24%	8%	52%	—	12%
Magellan Strategies[29]	July 17–18, 2011	799	± 3.5%	2%	21%	5%	56%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling[30]	December 10–12, 2011	300	± 5.7%	3%	20%	6%	55%	—	16%
Albuquerque Journal[31]	May 21–24, 2012	504	± 4.4%	—	—	20%	66%	—	14%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bill English	Gary Johnson	John Sanchez	Greg Sowards	Heather Wilson	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[30]	December 10–12, 2011	300	± 5.7%	1%	31%	15%	3%	42%	—	9%

Endorsements

Heather Wilson

Federal officials

• Pete Domenici, former U.S. Senator (R-NM)^[32]
• Ari Fleischer, former White House Press Secretary for George W. Bush^[32]
• Manuel Lujan Jr., former U.S. Secretary of the Interior^[32] and former U.S. Representative for New Mexico's 1st congressional district^[32]
• Bill Redmond, former U.S. Representative for New Mexico's 3rd congressional district^[32]

State officials

• John Sanchez, lieutenant governor^[32]
• Jack Stahl, former lieutenant governor^[32]

New Mexico state senators

• Rod Adair^[32]
• Vernon Asbill^[32]
• Sue Wilson Beffort^[32]
• Mark Boitano^[32]
• Bill Burt^[32]
• Clint Harden^[32]
• Stuart Ingle, Minority Leader^[32]
• Gay Kernan^[32]
• Carroll Leavell^[32]
• Steven Neville^[32]
• Bill Payne, Minority Whip^[32]
• Sander Rue^[32]
• John Ryan^[32]
• Bill Sharer^[32]

New Mexico state representatives

• Tom Anderson^[32]
• Alonzo Baldonado^[32]
• Paul Bandy^[32]
• Don Bratton^[32]
• David Chavez^[32]
• Zachary Cook^[32]
• Anna Crook^[32]
• Bill Gray^[32]
• Jim Hall^[32]
• Dave Doyle^[32]
• Nora Espinoza^[32]
• Nate Gentry^[32]
• Jimmie Hall^[32]
• Conrad James^[32]
• Larry Larranaga^[32]
• Tim Lewis^[32]
• Dianne Miller Hamilton^[32]
• Cathryn Novich-Brown^[32]
• Jane Powdrell-Culbert^[32]
• Bill Rehm^[32]
• Dennis Roch^[32]
• Jim Smith^[32]
• James Strickler^[32]
• Tom Taylor, Minority Leader^[32]
• Don Tripp^[32]
• Shirley Tyler^[32]
• James White^[32]
• Bob Wooley^[32]

New Mexico Mayors

• Richard J. Berry, Mayor of Albuquerque^[32]
• Scott Eckstein, Mayor of Bloomfield and Commissioner of San Juan County^[32]
• Louis Huning, former Mayor of Los Lunas^[32]
• Gary Kanin, former Mayor of Corrales^[32]
• Bryan Olguin, Mayor of Peralta^[32]
• Tommy Roberts, Mayor of Farmington^[32]
• Bill Standley, former Mayor of Farmington^[32]

Results

Results by county:

  Wilson—70–80%

  Wilson—60–70%

  Wilson—50–60%

  Sowards—50–60%

Republican primary results^[21]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Heather Wilson	63,631	70.0
	Republican	Greg Sowards	27,214	30.0
Total votes			90,845	100

General election

Candidates

• Jon Barrie^[33] (Independent American Party), alternative medicine practitioner and Air Force veteran^[34]
• Martin Heinrich (D), U.S. Representative
• Heather Wilson (R), former U.S. Representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2008

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 17, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Martin Heinrich (D)	$3,883,992	$2,174,712	$1,763,753	$89,424
Heather Wilson (R)	$4,048,847	$2,416,328	$1,632,517	$0
Jon Barrie (I)	$705	$1,150	$0	$445
Source: Federal Election Commission[35][36][37]

Top contributors

^[38]

Martin Heinrich	Contribution	Heather Wilson	Contribution
League of Conservation Voters	$108,634	Elliott Management Corporation	$29,413
JStreetPAC	$67,860	Mewbourne Oil Co	$25,000
University of New Mexico	$24,221	Kelly PAC	$15,000
Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP	$23,000	Blue Cross & Blue Shield	$14,050
Council for a Livable World	$20,044	Devon Energy	$13,250
National Rural Letter Carriers' Association	$19,000	Murray Energy	$12,800
Comcast Corporation	$11,250	Yates Petroleum	$12,600
Presbyterian Healthcare Services	$11,150	Livingston Group	$12,249
Intel Corp	$10,500	Publix Super Markets	$11,000
American Optometric Association	$10,250	Westport Construction	$10,500

Top industries

^[39]

Martin Heinrich	Contribution	Heather Wilson	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$322,120	Retired	$355,880
Retired	$270,598	Oil & Gas	$217,500
Lobbyists	$156,480	Leadership PACs	$206,225
Environmental organizations	$145,365	Financial Institutions	$163,888
Leadership PACs	$100,000	Lobbyists	$113,549
Health Professionals	$95,729	Lawyers/Law Firms	$106,852
Pro-Israel	$83,860	Real Estate	$95,990
Public Sector Unions	$67,000	Misc Finance	$72,407
Democratic/Liberal	$64,300	Business Services	$72,078
Casinos/Gambling	$58,550	Mining	$69,200

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[40]	Lean D	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[41]	Likely D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[42]	Lean D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[43]	Likely D	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Heather Wilson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44]	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%	50%	39%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling[45]	June 23–26, 2011	732	± 3.6%	47%	42%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling[12]	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%	47%	40%	—	13%
Rasmussen Reports[46]	February 14, 2012	500	± 4.5%	45%	43%	5%	7%
Rasmussen Reports[47]	April 3, 2012	500	± 4.5%	46%	42%	7%	6%
Public Policy Polling[12]	April 19–22, 2012	526	± 4.3%	48%	43%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling[48]	July 13–16, 2012	724	± 3.6%	48%	43%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports[47]	August 21, 2012	500	± 4.5%	48%	41%	5%	7%
Albuquerque Journal[49]	September 3–6, 2012	667	± 3.8%	49%	42%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling[50]	September 7–9, 2012	1,122	± 2.9%	50%	41%	—	9%
We Ask America[51]	September 25–27, 2012	1,258	± 2.85%	52%	41%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling[52]	October 2–3, 2012	778	± n/a%	51%	41%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports[47]	October 8, 2012	500	± 4.5%	52%	39%	4%	5%
Albuquerque Poll Journal[53]	October 9–11, 2012	658	± 3.8%	48%	39%	4%	9%
Public Policy Polling[54]	October 23–24, 2012	727	± n/a%	52%	44%	—	3%
Albuquerque Poll Journal[55]	October 23–25, 2012	662	± 3.8%	50%	42%	3%	6%

Hypothetical polling

with Jeff Bingaman

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Bingaman (D)	Gary Johnson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44]	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%	51%	40%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Bingaman (D)	Steve Pearce (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44]	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%	57%	34%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Bingaman (D)	Heather Wilson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44]	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%	56%	37%	—	9%

with Hector Balderas

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Hector Balderas (D)	Gary Johnson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[12]	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%	38%	44%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Hector Balderas (D)	Greg Sowards (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45]	June 23–26, 2011	732	± 3.6%	42%	28%	—	30%
Public Policy Polling[12]	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%	44%	30%	—	27%
Public Policy Polling[12]	April 19–22, 2012	526	± 4.3%	42%	30%	—	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Hector Balderas (D)	Heather Wilson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45]	June 23–26, 2011	732	± 3.6%	45%	39%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling[12]	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%	43%	43%	—	14%
Rasmussen Reports[46]	February 14, 2012	500	± 4.5%	44%	44%	3%	9%
Rasmussen Reports[47]	April 3, 2012	500	± 4.5%	42%	43%	5%	9%
Public Policy Polling[12]	April 19–22, 2012	526	± 4.3%	44%	43%	—	12%

with Ben Ray Luján

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ben Ray Luján (D)	Gary Johnson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44]	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%	40%	45%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ben Ray Luján (D)	Steve Pearce (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44]	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%	49%	37%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ben Ray Luján (D)	Heather Wilson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44]	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%	48%	40%	—	12%

with Martin Heinrich

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Gary Johnson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44]	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%	43%	44%	—	14%
Public Policy Polling[12]	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%	43%	43%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Steve Pearce (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[44]	February 4–6, 2011	545	± 4.2%	53%	38%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Martin Heinrich (D)	Greg Sowards (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[45]	June 23–26, 2011	732	± 3.6%	46%	34%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling[12]	December 10–12, 2011	500	± 4.4%	49%	31%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling[12]	April 19–22, 2012	526	± 4.3%	48%	34%	—	18%

Results

2012 United States Senate election in New Mexico^[56]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Martin Heinrich	395,717	51.01%	−19.60%
	Republican	Heather Wilson	351,259	45.28%	+15.95%
	Independent American	Jon Barrie	28,199	3.63%	N/A
	Independent	Robert L. Anderson (write-in)	617	0.08%	N/A
Total votes			775,792	100.0%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Chaves (largest village: Roswell)
• Curry (largest village: Clovis)
• Eddy (largest city: Carlsbad)
• Harding (largest city: Roy)
• Hidalgo (largest city: Lordsburg)
• Lea (largest city: Hobbs)
• Lincoln (largest city: Roidoso)
• Otero (largest city: Alamogordo)
• Quay (largest city: Tucumcari)
• Roosevelt (largest city: Portales)
• Sandoval (largest city: Rancho)
• San Juan (largest city: Farmington)
• Sierra (largest city: Truth or Consequences)
• Torrance (largest city: Moriarty)
• Union (largest city: Clayton)
• Valencia (largest village: Los Lunas)
• De Baca (largest city: Fort Sumner)
• Los Alamos (largest city: Los Alamos)
• Catron (largest city: Reserve)

By congressional district

Heinrich won two of three congressional districts.^[57]

District	Heinrich	Wilson	Representative
1st	53.5%	43.34%	Michelle Lujan Grisham
2nd	44.37%	51.15%	Steve Pearce
3rd	54.15%	42.42%	Ben Ray Luján

See also

• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in New Mexico