2012 United States Senate election in Virginia

The 2012 United States Senate election in Virginia took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jim Webb retired instead of running for reelection to a second term, and former Democratic governor of Virginia Tim Kaine won the open seat over Republican former senator and governor George Allen.^[2][3] Kaine was unopposed for the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans nominated Allen through a primary on June 12, 2012.^[4] Allen had previously held this seat for one term before narrowly losing reelection to Webb in 2006.

2012 United States Senate election in Virginia

← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout	66.4% (voting eligible)[1]
Nominee Tim Kaine George Allen Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 2,010,067 1,785,542 Percentage 52.83% 46.92%
County and independent city results Congressional district results Precinct results Kaine:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Allen:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      50%
U.S. senator before election Jim Webb Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Tim Kaine Democratic

Republican primary

In Virginia, parties have the option of whether to hold a primary or to nominate their candidate through a party convention. In November 2010, the Virginia GOP announced that it had chosen to hold a primary.^[5]

Candidates

Declared

• George Allen, former U.S. Senator and former Governor of Virginia^[6]
• E. W. Jackson, minister and conservative activist^[7]
• Bob Marshall, State Delegate and candidate in 2008^[8]
• Jamie Radtke, conservative activist^[9]

Withdrawn

• Tim Donner, founder of Horizons Television and LibertyNation.com^[10]
• David McCormick, attorney^[11]

Declined

• Liz Cheney, former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs^[12]
• Ken Cuccinelli, Virginia Attorney General^[13]
• Tom Davis, former U.S. Representative^[14]
• Corey Stewart, Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman^[15]

Debates

Three debates between Republican candidates were announced before the primary on June 12, 2012. The debates took place in Richmond, Northern Virginia, and Hampton Roads.^[16]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	George Allen	Other candidates	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[17]	February 24–27, 2011	400	±4.9%	52%	25%	23%
Public Policy Polling[18]	July 21–24, 2011	400	±4.9%	58%	23%	19%
Public Policy Polling[19]	December 11–13, 2011	350	±5.2%	53%	25%	22%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	George Allen	E. W. Jackson	Bob Marshall	David McCormick	Jamie Radtke	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[18]	July 21–24, 2011	400	±4.9%	68%	2%	2%	0%	6%	22%
Public Policy Polling[19]	December 11–13, 2011	350	±5.2%	67%	2%	3%	2%	5%	21%
Public Policy Polling[20]	April 26–29, 2012	400	±4.9%	66%	2%	8%	—	3%	20%
The Washington Post[21]	April 28 – May 2, 2012	1,101	±3.5%	62%	3%	12%	—	5%	18%

Endorsements

George Allen

• Bill Bolling, Lt. Governor of Virginia and President of the Virginia State Senate^[22]
• Ron Johnson, U.S. Senator from Wisconsin^[23]
• Bob McDonnell, governor of Virginia.^[24]
• Marco Rubio, U.S. Senator from Florida^[25]
• Corey Stewart, Prince William County Board of Supervisors Chairman^[26]

Jamie Radtke

• Bob Arment, Louisa County Republican Party Chairman
• Steve Arrington, Bedford County Supervisor
• James Fisher, Fauquier County Commonwealth's Attorney
• Jeff Frederick, former Virginia House of Delegates member
• Joe Glover, Family Policy Network president
• Jack Reid, former Virginia House of Delegates member
• Eva Scott, Former Virginia state senator
• John Sharp, Bedford County Supervisor
• Richard Viguerie, conservative activist

Results

Republican primary results^[27]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	George Allen	167,607	65.5
	Republican	Jamie Radtke	59,005	23.0
	Republican	Bob Marshall	17,302	6.8
	Republican	E. W. Jackson	12,083	4.7
Total votes			255,997	100

Hank the Cat

On February 27, 2012, a Maine Coon cat named Hank the Cat was announced to be running a write-in campaign as a joke candidate.^[28] Hank's campaign raised US$16,000 for animal charities throughout the world.^[29]

General election

Candidates

• George Allen (Republican), former U.S. Senator former Governor of Virginia^[6] and former U.S. representative from Virginia's 7th congressional district (1991–1993)
• Tim Kaine (Democratic), former Governor of Virginia and former Democratic National Committee chairman^[30][31]

Only Allen and Kaine qualified for the ballot.

Debates

David Gregory moderated a debate between Kaine and Allen on September 20, 2012. Topics included partisan gridlock in Washington policy making, job creation, tax policy, and Middle East unrest.^[32]

External links

• Complete video of debate, September 20, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 8, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 18, 2012 - C-SPAN

Campaign

Once incumbent U.S. Senator Jim Webb decided to retire, many Democratic candidates were speculated. These included U.S. Congressmen Rick Boucher,^[33] Gerry Connolly,^[34] Glenn Nye,^[35] Tom Perriello^[36] and Bobby Scott.^[37] However, they all declined and encouraged Kaine to run for the seat, believing he would be by far the most electable candidate. Courtney Lynch, former Marine Corps Officer and Fairfax business consultant^[38] and Julien Modica, former CEO of the Brain Trauma Recovery & Policy Institute,^[38] eventually withdrew from the election, allowing Kaine to be unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Tim Kaine (D)	$10,390,929	$7,666,452	$2,724,476	$0
George Allen (R)	$8,015,948	$4,678,004	$3,337,942	$0
Kevin Chisholm (I)	$24,165	$24,162	$0	$0
Terrence Modglin (I)	$5,655	$5,389	$266	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[39][40][41][42]

Top contributors

^[43]

Tim Kaine	Contribution	George Allen	Contribution	Kevin Chisholm	Contribution
League of Conservation Voters	$76,568	McGuireWoods LLP	$76,950	Valu Net	$2,475
Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld	$51,650	Altria Group	$64,749	Geolq Inc	$1,500
University of Virginia	$42,075	Alpha Natural Resources	$38,000
McGuireWoods LLP	$38,550	Elliott Management Corporation	$35,913
Covington & Burling	$36,700	Koch Industries	$35,000
DLA Piper	$31,750	Lorillard Tobacco Company	$34,715
Bain Capital	$30,000	Alliance Resource Partners	$33,500
Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom	$28,250	Dominion Resources	$31,800
Patton Boggs LLP	$26,750	Norfolk Southern	$31,550
Norfolk Southern	$26,000	Boeing	$23,750

Top industries

^[44]

Tim Kaine	Contribution	George Allen	Contribution	Kevin Chisholm	Contribution	Terrence Modglin	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$1,297,792	Retired	$709,693	Misc Energy	$250	Lawyers/Law Firms	$200
Retired	$762,722	Real Estate	$384,038
Financial Institutions	$477,700	Lawyers/Law Firms	$348,459
Business Services	$373,900	Financial Institutions	$299,115
Real Estate	$372,829	Leadership PACs	$277,000
Lobbyists	$287,545	Lobbyists	$275,600
Education	$282,475	Mining	$197,206
Misc Finance	$218,600	Oil & Gas	$196,400
Leadership PACs	$201,500	Insurance	$159,065
Entertainment industry	$156,279	Misc Finance	$157,963

Independent expenditures

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.^[45]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[46]	Tossup	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47]	Lean D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[48]	Tossup	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[49]	Tossup	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	George Allen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[50]	November 10–13, 2010	551	±4.2%	50%	44%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling[51]	February 24–27, 2011	524	±3.5%	47%	47%	—	6%
The Washington Post[52]	April 28 – May 4, 2011	1,040	±3.5%	46%	46%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling[53]	May 5–8, 2011	547	±4.2%	46%	44%	—	10%
Quinnipiac[54]	June 21–27, 2011	1,434	±2.6%	43%	42%	2%	11%
Public Policy Polling[55]	July 21–24, 2011	500	±4.4%	46%	43%	—	11%
Quinnipiac[56]	September 7–12, 2011	1,368	±4.0%	44%	45%	1%	9%
Rasmussen Reports[57]	September 28, 2011	500	±4.5%	46%	45%	3%	7%
CNU/Times-Dispatch[58]	October 3–8, 2011	1,027	±3.1%	44%	42%	3%	12%
Quinnipiac[59]	October 3–9, 2011	1,459	±2.6%	45%	44%	1%	9%
Public Policy Polling[60]	December 10–12, 2011	600	±4.0%	47%	42%	—	11%
Quinnipiac[61]	December 13–19, 2011	1,135	±2.9%	42%	44%	1%	12%
Mason-Dixon[62]	January 16–18, 2012	625	±3.9%	46%	46%	—	8%
Quinnipiac[63]	February 1–6, 2012	1,544	±2.5%	45%	44%	1%	9%
CNU/Times-Dispatch[64]	February 4–13, 2012	1,018	±3.1%	40%	42%	2%	16%
Rasmussen Reports[65]	February 21, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	46%	3%	5%
Roanoke College[66]	February 13–26, 2012	607	±4.0%	37%	45%	—	19%
NBC News/Marist[67]	February 29 – March 2, 2012	2,518	±2%	48%	39%	—	14%
Quinnipiac[68]	March 13–18, 2012	1,034	±3.1%	47%	44%	1%	8%
Rasmussen Reports[69]	March 20, 2012	500	±4.5%	44%	46%	3%	7%
Roanoke College[70]	March 26 – April 5, 2012	537	±4.2%	39%	46%	—	15%
Rasmussen Reports[71]	April 23, 2012	500	±4.5%	45%	46%	4%	5%
Public Policy Polling[20]	April 26–29, 2012	680	±3.8%	46%	45%	—	9%
The Washington Post[72]	April 28 – May 2, 2012	964	±4%	46%	46%	—	8%
Marist[73]	May 17–20, 2012	1,076	±3%	49%	43%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports[74]	June 3, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	44%	3%	6%
Quinnipiac[75]	May 30 – June 4, 2012	1,282	±2.7%	44%	43%	2%	10%
We Ask America[76]	June 25, 2012	1,106	±2.95%	35%	44%	—	21%
Public Policy Polling[77]	July 5–8, 2012	647	±3.9%	46%	44%	—	11%
Quinnipiac[78]	July 10–16, 2012	1,673	±2.4%	44%	46%	1%	10%
Rasmussen Reports[74]	July 16–17, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	45%	5%	5%
Quinnipiac[79]	July 31 – August 6, 2012	1,412	±2.6%	48%	46%	—	6%
Rasmussen Reports[80]	August 7, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	46%	2%	6%
Public Policy Polling[81]	August 16–19, 2012	855	±3.4%	46%	46%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports[82]	August 23, 2012	500	±4.5%	45%	45%	2%	8%
Gravis Marketing[83]	September 8–9, 2012	2,238	±2.2%	43%	48%	—	10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[84]	September 9–11, 2012	996	±3.1%	46%	46%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports[85]	September 13, 2012	500	±4.5%	47%	45%	2%	6%
The Washington Post[86]	September 12–16, 2012	847	±4%	51%	43%	3%	4%
Public Policy Polling[87]	September 13–16, 2012	1,021	±3.1%	47%	46%	—	7%
CBS/The New York Times/Quinnipiac[88]	September 11–17, 2012	1,485	±2.5%	51%	44%	—	5%
FOX NEWS Poll[89]	September 16–18, 2012	1,006	±3%	47%	43%	1%	9%
Gravis Marketing[90]	September 17, 2012	2,238	±2.2%	43%	48%	—	9%
Huffpost Politics[91]	September 20, 2012	1,000	±3%	46%	45%	—	9%
Suffolk University[92]	September 24–26, 2012	600	±4%	44%	44%	—	12%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[93]	September 30 – October 1, 2012	969	±3.1%	49%	44%	1%	7%
Rasmussen Reports[94]	October 4, 2012	500	±4.5%	52%	45%	—	3%
Public Policy Polling[95]	October 4–7, 2012	725	±3.6%	51%	44%	—	5%
CBS/The New York Times/Quinnipiac[96]	October 4–9, 2012	1,288	±2.7%	51%	44%	—	5%
We Ask America[97]	October 7–9, 2012	1,296	±2.9%	41%	46%	—	13%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[98]	October 7–9, 2012	981	±3.1%	47%	46%	—	7%
Rasmussen Reports[99]	October 11, 2012	750	±4.0%	48%	47%	1%	4%
Old Dominion University[100]	September 19 – October 17, 2012	465	±3.4%	50%	43%	—	6%
Rasmussen Reports[101]	October 18, 2012	500	±4.0%	49%	48%	3%	—
Rasmussen Reports[102]	October 24, 2012	750	±4.0%	49%	48%	3%	—
The Washington Post[103]	October 22–26, 2012	1,228	±3.5%	51%	44%	—	5%
Roanoke College[104]	October 23–26, 2012	638	±4.0%	42%	47%	—	10%
Gravis Marketing[105]	October 26, 2012	645	±3.9%	46%	48%	—	5%
CBS/The New York Times/Quinnipiac[106]	October 23–28, 2012	1,074	±3%	50%	46%	—	4%
Reuters/Ipsos[107]	October 29–31, 2012	703	±4.2%	47%	45%	1%	7%
		855	±3.8%	50%	38%	1%	11%
WeAskAmerica[108]	October 30 – November 1, 2012	1,069	±3%	50%	50%	—	—
NBC/WSJ/Marist[109]	November 1–2, 2012	1,165	±2.9%	49%	46%	—	4%
Public Policy Polling[110]	November 3–4, 2012	975	±3.1%	52%	46%	—	2%
Rasmussen Reports[101]	November 4, 2012	750	±4%	49%	47%	1%	4%

Hypothetical polling

Democratic primary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rick Boucher	Tim Kaine	Tom Perriello	Gerry Connolly	Glenn Nye	Bobby Scott	Doug Wilder	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling[111]	February 24–27, 2011	400	±4.9%	9%	53%	9%	3%	1%	9%	8%	9%
				11%	65%	15%	N/A				9%

General election

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	Bob Marshall (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]	February 24–27, 2011	524	±3.5%	49%	35%	—	16%
CNU/Times-Dispatch[64]	February 4–13, 2012	1,018	±3.1%	39%	28%	4%	29%
Public Policy Polling[20]	April 26–29, 2012	680	±3.8%	49%	36%	—	15%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Kaine (D)	Jamie Radtke (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]	February 24–27, 2011	524	±3.5%	49%	33%	—	17%
The Washington Post[52]	April 28 – May 4, 2011	1,040	±3.5%	57%	31%	1%	9%
Public Policy Polling[53]	May 5–8, 2011	547	±4.2%	49%	33%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling[55]	July 21–24, 2011	500	±4.4%	47%	31%	—	22%
CNU/Times-Dispatch[58]	October 3–8, 2011	1,027	±3.1%	46%	32%	3%	19%
Public Policy Polling[60]	December 10–12, 2011	600	±4.0%	49%	33%	—	19%
CNU/Times-Dispatch[64]	February 4–13, 2012	1,018	±3.1%	40%	26%	3%	31%
Public Policy Polling[20]	April 26–29, 2012	680	±3.8%	50%	35%	—	15%

with Rick Boucher

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rick Boucher (D)	George Allen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]	February 24–27, 2011	524	±3.5	42%	47%	—	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rick Boucher (D)	Bob Marshall (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]	February 24–27, 2011	524	±3.5%	40%	32%	—	28%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Rick Boucher (D)	Jamie Radtke (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]	February 24–27, 2011	524	±3.5%	40%	29%	—	31%

with Tom Perriello

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tom Perriello (D)	George Allen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[50]	November 10–13, 2010	551	±4.2%	42%	47%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling[51]	February 24–27, 2011	524	±3.5%	41%	48%	—	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tom Perriello (D)	Bob Marshall (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]	February 24–27, 2011	524	±3.5%	39%	35%	—	26%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tom Periello (D)	Jamie Radtke (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[51]	February 24–27, 2011	524	±3.5%	40%	32%	—	28%

with Bobby Scott

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bobby Scott (D)	George Allen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53]	May 5–8, 2011	547	±4.2%	39%	44%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bobby Scott (D)	Jamie Radtke (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[53]	May 5–8, 2011	547	±4.2%	39%	34%	—	27%

with Jim Webb

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jim Webb (D)	George Allen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[112]	July 31 – August 3, 2009	579	—	43%	44%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling[50]	November 10–13, 2010	551	±4.2%	49%	45%	—	6%
Clarus Research Group[113]	December 7–9, 2010	600	±4.0%	41%	40%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jim Webb (D)	Bill Bolling (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[50]	November 10–13, 2010	551	±4.2%	48%	39%	—	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jim Webb (D)	Bob McDonnell (R)	Other	Undecided
Clarus Research Group[113]	December 7–9, 2010	600	±4.0%	39%	42%	—	19%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2012^[114]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Tim Kaine	2,010,067	52.83%	+3.24%
	Republican	George Allen	1,785,542	46.92%	−2.28%
	Write-in		9,410	0.25%	+0.15%
Total votes			3,805,019	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Buchanan (largest city: Grundy)
• Dickenson (largest borough: Clintwood)
• Alleghany (largest borough: Clinfton Forge)
• Russell (Largest city: Lebanon)
• Norton (Independent city)

Counties and independent cities that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Buckingham (largest borough: Buckingham)
• Chesapeake (independent city)
• Essex (largest borough: Tappahannock)
• Harrisonburg (independent city)
• Henrico (largest borough: Richmond)
• Hopewell (independent city)
• Manassas (independent city)
• Staunton (independent city)
• Winchester (independent city)
• Virginia Beach (Independent city)
• Prince Edward (largest municipality: Farmville)
• Danville (independent city)

By congressional district

Kaine won six of 11 congressional districts, including three held by Republicans.^[115]

District	Allen	Kaine	Representative
1st	52.75%	47.25%	Rob Wittman
2nd	47.94%	52.06%	Scott Rigell
3rd	20.65%	79.35%	Robert C. Scott
4th	49.92%	50.08%	Randy Forbes
5th	52.96%	47.04%	Robert Hurt
6th	59.04%	40.96%	Bob Goodlatte
7th	55.17%	44.83%	Eric Cantor
8th	30.54%	69.46%	Jim Moran
9th	61.86%	38.14%	Morgan Griffith
10th	49.55%	50.45%	Frank Wolf
11th	36.24%	63.76%	Gerry Connolly

See also

• Hank the Cat
• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Virginia