2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

The 2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin took place on November 6, 2012, alongside a U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Herb Kohl retired instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. This was the first open Senate seat in Wisconsin since 1988, when Kohl won his first term.

2012 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

← 2006 November 6, 2012 2018 →
Turnout	72.5% (voting eligible)[1]
Nominee Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,547,104 1,380,126 Percentage 51.41% 45.86%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Baldwin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Thompson:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%      Tie      No data
U.S. senator before election Herb Kohl Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin Democratic

Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012. Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin's 2nd congressional district ran unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Wisconsin Governor and U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Tommy Thompson, who won with a plurality in a four-way primary race. In the general election, Baldwin defeated Thompson and won the open seat. She became the first woman elected to represent Wisconsin in the Senate and the first openly gay U.S. senator in history. This is also the only time Thompson lost a statewide race.

Background

Incumbent Democratic senator Herb Kohl was re-elected to a fourth term in 2006, beating Republican attorney Robert Lorge by 67% to 30%. Kohl's lack of fundraising suggested his potential retirement.^[2] There was speculation that Kohl might decide to retire to allow Russ Feingold, who lost his re-election bid in 2010, to run again, although Mike Tate, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, dismissed speculation about Kohl's potential retirement.^[3] Ultimately, Kohl announced in May 2011 that he would not run for re-election in 2012.

Democratic primary

Despite speculation that Kohl would retire to make way for his former Senate colleague Russ Feingold, who had been unseated in 2010, Feingold chose not to enter the race. Other potential candidates also declined to run, leaving Baldwin unopposed in the Democratic primary.

Candidates

Declared

• Tammy Baldwin, U.S. representative^[4]

Declined

• Tom Barrett, mayor of Milwaukee^[5]
• Kathleen Falk, former Dane County executive (1997–2011)^[6]
• Russ Feingold, former U.S. senator^[7]
• Steve Kagen, former U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 8th congressional district (2006–2011)^[8]
• Ron Kind, U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district^[9]
• Herb Kohl, incumbent U.S. senator^[10][11]
• Gwen Moore, U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 4th congressional district^[12]
• Tim Sullivan, businessman^[13]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tammy Baldwin	Jon Erpenbach	Russ Feingold	Kathleen Falk	Steve Kagen	Ron Kind	Barbara Lawton	Gwen Moore	Other/ Undecided
Public Policy Polling[14]	May 19–22, 2011	783	±3.5%	12%	5%	70%	1%	3%	4%	1%	2%	3%
				30%	13%	—	4%	17%	16%	3%	6%	12%
Magellan Strategies[15]	July 12–13, 2011	627	±3.9%	46%	—	—	—	21%	—	—	—	33%
				41%	—	—	—	—	19%	—	—	40%
Public Policy Polling[16]	August 12–14, 2011	387	±5%	48%	—	—	—	19%	—	—	—	33%
				37%	—	—	—	15%	21%	—	—	27%

Results

Democratic primary results^[17]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Tammy Baldwin	185,265	99.77
	Democratic	Write ins	424	0.23
Total votes			185,689	100

Republican primary

Congressman and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan stated he would not run if Kohl sought reelection, but would contemplate a run if Kohl retired.^[18] Ryan later stated that he was "95 percent sure" that he would not run.^[19] He was later chosen as the Republican nominee for vice president by presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

Six candidates declared for the seat, although two later withdrew. The contest turned out to be a four-way fight. Although a large majority of Republican primary voters consistently expressed a preference for a nominee "more conservative" than Tommy Thompson, Eric Hovde and Mark Neumann split the conservative vote, allowing Thompson to narrowly prevail with a plurality of the vote.^[20]

Candidates

Declared

• Jeff Fitzgerald, Speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly^[21]
• Eric Hovde, businessman^[22]
• Mark Neumann, former U.S. representative, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1998, and candidate for governor in 2010^[23][24]
• Tommy Thompson, former governor of Wisconsin and former secretary of Health and Human Services^[25]

Withdrew

• Frank Lasee, state senator^[26] (endorsed Eric Hovde)
• Kip Smith, physical therapist^[27]

Declined

• Mark Andrew Green, former U.S. representative and former United States ambassador to Tanzania^[28]
• Theodore Kanavas, former state senator^[29]
• Paul Ryan, U.S. representative^[30]
• Tim Sullivan, businessman^[13]
• J. B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin attorney general^[31]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Fitzgerald	Eric Hovde	Mark Neumann	Tommy Thompson	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[32]	August 8–9, 2012	557	± 4.2%	15%	27%	24%	25%	9%
Marquette University[33]	August 2–5, 2012	519	± 4.4%	13%	20%	18%	28%	7%
We Ask America[34]	July 31, 2012	1,237	± 2.8%	12%	23%	17%	23%	25%
Public Policy Polling[35]	July 30–31, 2012	400	± 4.9%	13%	28%	25%	25%	9%
				—	33%	27%	30%	10%
Marquette University[36]	July 5–8, 2012	432	± 4.8%	6%	23%	10%	35%	25%
Public Policy Polling[37]	July 5–8, 2012	564	± 4.1%	9%	31%	15%	29%	16%
OnMessage Inc.[38]+	June 26–27, 2012	600	± 4.0%	7%	29%	16%	34%	14%
Marquette University[39]	June 13–16, 2012	344	± 5.4%	10%	14%	16%	34%	25%
Public Policy Polling[40]	March 31–April 1, 2012	609	± 4.0%	18%	—	25%	38%	19%
Public Policy Polling[41]	February 23–26, 2012	556	± 4.2%	22%	—	22%	39%	17%
				32%	—	42%	—	26%
				37%	—	—	46%	17%
				—	—	36%	46%	18%
Public Policy Polling[42]	October 20–23, 2011	650	± 3.8%	21%	—	29%	35%	11%
				—	—	39%	43%	17%
				28%	—	44%	—	28%
				35%	—	—	47%	17%
Public Policy Polling[16]	August 12–14, 2011	362	± 5.2%	—	—	39%	47%	13%
Magellan Strategies[43]	July 12–13, 2011	638	± 3.9%	15%	—	26%	41%	18%
				—	—	36%	44%	20%

• ⁺ Commissioned by Eric Hovde

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tommy Thompson	Someone more conservative	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[35]	July 30–31, 2012	400	± 4.9%	29%	58%	13%
Public Policy Polling[37]	July 5–8, 2012	564	± 4.1%	34%	50%	17%
Public Policy Polling[41]	February 23–26, 2012	556	± 4.2%	37%	47%	17%
Public Policy Polling[42]	October 20–23, 2011	650	± 3.8%	35%	51%	14%

Endorsements

Jeff Fitzgerald

• Scott Suder, Wisconsin Assembly Majority Leader (Abbotsford)^{[44][failed verification]}
• Robin Vos, Wisconsin Assembly Finance Chair (Rochester)^{[44][failed verification]}
• Joan Ballweg, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Chair (Markesan)^{[44][failed verification]}
• Mary Williams, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Secretary (Medford)^{[44][failed verification]}
• Samantha Kerkman, Wisconsin Assembly Caucus Sergeant at Arms (Randall)^{[44][failed verification]}
• Bill Kramer, Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Pro-Temp (Waukesha)^[45]
• Dan Knodl, Wisconsin Assembly Assistant Assembly Majority Leader (Germantown)^{[44][failed verification]}
• Joel Kleefisch, Wisconsin State Representative (Oconomowoc)^[45]
• Don Pridemore, Wisconsin State Representative (Hartford)^[45]
• Paul Farrow, Wisconsin State Representative (Pewaukee)^[45]
• Dale Kooyenga, Wisconsin State Representative (Brookfield)^[45]
• Mike Kuglitsch, Wisconsin State Representative (New Berlin)^[45]
• Jim Ott, Wisconsin State Representative (Brown Deer)^[45]

Eric Hovde

• Frank Lasee, Wisconsin State Senator (De Pere)^[45]
• Leah Vukmir, Wisconsin State Senator (Wauwatosa)^[45]
• FreedomWorks^[46]

Mark Neumann

• Club for Growth^[47]
• Family Research Council^[48]
• Rand Paul, U.S. Senator (KY)^[49]
• Tom Coburn, U.S. Senator (OK)^[50]
• Jim DeMint, U.S. Senator (SC)^[51]
• Mike Lee, U.S. Senator (UT)^[52]
• Jack Voight, former Wisconsin State Treasurer^[53]
• Kurt W. Schuller, Wisconsin State Treasurer^[53]
• GING PAC, a PAC of Social Conservatives^[54]
• Pat Toomey, U.S. Senator (PA)^[55]
• Wisconsin Right to Life^[56]
• Mark Levin, Nationally Syndicated Talk Show Host^[57]

Tommy Thompson

Politicians

• Herman Cain, business executive, radio host, syndicated columnist, former candidate for the 2012 U.S. Republican Party presidential nomination.^[58]
• Newt Gingrich, former speaker of the House of Representatives, and 2012 presidential candidate^[59]
• Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana^[60]
• Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City and 2008 Presidential Candidate^[61]
• Lamar Alexander, U.S. senator from Tennessee^[62]
• John Hoeven, U.S. senator from North Dakota^[62]
• Mike Johanns, U.S. senator from Nebraska^[62]
• Jim Risch, U.S. senator from Idaho^[62]
• Mark Green, former U.S. representative and former United States Ambassador to Tanzania^[28]
• J.B. Van Hollen, Wisconsin attorney general^[28]
• Cathy Zeuske, former Wisconsin state treasurer^[28]
• Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas, 2008 presidential candidate and Fox News talk show host^[63]
• Scott Klug, former U.S. representative (WI)
• Margaret Farrow, former lieutenant governor of Wisconsin
• Mike Leavitt, former governor of Utah, former Administrator of the EPA, and former Secretary of Health and Human Services^[64]
• John Engler, former governor of Michigan^[64]
• Dirk Kempthorne, former governor of Idaho and former Secretary of the Interior^[64]
• Frank Keating, former governor of Oklahoma^[64]
• Tom Ridge, former governor of Pennsylvania and former Secretary of Homeland Security^[64]
• Bill Weld, former governor of Massachusetts^[64]
• Bill Graves, former governor of Kansas^[64]
• Jeb Bush, former Florida governor^[60]

Celebrities and political commentators^[65]

• Ted Nugent, musician and conservative activist ^[66]
• Michael Reagan, author, radio host, and son of President Ronald Reagan
• Dick Morris, political strategist, author, Fox News analyst, former adviser to President Bill Clinton^[67]
• Joe Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. Joe the Plumber^[68]

Cabinet officials^[65]

• Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense from 1975 to 1977 and 2001 to 2006, former White House chief of staff, and former ambassador
• Donald L. Nelson, former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense
• Ray Boland, colonel and former Veterans Affairs Secretary

State legislators^[65]

• John Gard, former Wisconsin Assembly Speaker
• State Senator Rob Cowles
• State Senator Mike Ellis
• Rep. Evan Wynn (Whitewater)
• Rep. Joseph Knilans (Janesville)
• State Senator Sheila Harsdorf
• State Senator Luther Olsen
• State Senator Dale Schultz
• State Senator Jerry Petrowski
• Van Wanggaard, former state senator

Political organization officials^[65]

• David Keene, president of the National Rifle Association of America and former chairman of the American Conservative Union^[69]
• Former Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Rick Graber
• Wisconsin Club for Growth founders Terry and Mary Kohler
• Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Sue Lynch
• Former Wisconsin Federation of Republican Women President Ginny Marschman
• Republican National Convention co-chairman Mary Buestrin

Law enforcement officials^[65]

• Waukesha County Sheriff Daniel Trawicki
• Waukesha County District Attorney Brad Schimel

Organizations^[65]

• Wisconsin Right to Life
• Dairy Business Association
• Wisconsin Corn Growers Association
• Wisconsin Farm Bureau Federation
• Milwaukee Police Association
• Milwaukee Police Supervisors Organization
• Milwaukee Professional Firefighters Association
• Wisconsin Grocers Association
• Wisconsin Restaurant Association
• Chiropractic Society of Wisconsin
• Wisconsin Health Care Association
• Wisconsin Mortgage Bankers Association
• GOProud^[70]

Results

Results by county

  Thompson

•   20–30%
•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

  Hovde

•   30–40%
•   40–50%

  Neumann

•   30–40%
•   40–50%

Republican primary results^[17]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tommy Thompson	197,928	34.0
	Republican	Eric Hovde	179,557	30.8
	Republican	Mark Neumann	132,786	22.8
	Republican	Jeff Fitzgerald	71,871	12.3
	Republican	Write ins	244	0.04
Total votes			582,630	100

General election

Thompson and Baldwin with WISN-TV's Mike Gousha at the October 26 debate.

Candidates

• Tammy Baldwin (Democratic), U.S. Representative
• Tommy Thompson (Republican), former governor and former Secretary of Health and Human Services
• Joseph Kexel (Libertarian), IT consultant^[71]
• Nimrod Allen III (independent), consultant and former Marine^[72]

Debates

Baldwin and Thompson agreed to three debates: September 28, October 18 and 26, all broadcast statewide, and nationwide through C-SPAN.

The first debate originated from the studios of Milwaukee Public Television and was coordinated by the Wisconsin Broadcasters Association. It aired on MPTV, Wisconsin Public Television, Wisconsin Public Radio and several commercial stations throughout the state.

The second debate originated from the Theater for Civic Engagement on the campus of the University of Wisconsin–Marathon County in Wausau and was coordinated by WPT/WPR, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and Milwaukee's WTMJ-TV. Again it was carried on MPTV, WPT/WPR, and several commercial stations, including WTMJ-TV.

The third debate originated from Eckstein Hall on the campus of Marquette University Law School and was coordinated by WISN-TV in Milwaukee. It aired on that station and across the state's other ABC affiliated stations.

External links

• Complete video of debate, September 28, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 18, 2012 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 26, 2012 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Tammy Baldwin (D)	$14,643,869	$15,204,940	$143,852	$0
Tommy Thompson (R)	$9,585,823	$9,582,888	$2,934	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[73]

Top contributors

Tammy Baldwin	Contribution	Tommy Thompson	Contribution
EMILY's List	$431,843	Michael Best & Friedrich LLP	$36,825
MoveOn.org	$171,467	ABC Supply	$28,500
University of Wisconsin	$117,600	Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld	$28,250
J Street PAC	$113,758	Direct Supply	$27,500
League of Conservation Voters	$95,308	Wisconsin Energy Corporation	$25,750
Democracy Engine	$81,330	American Foods Group	$25,000
Council for a Livable World	$54,130	Gilead Sciences	$23,000
Voices for Progress	$25,749	Centene Corporation	$20,750
Marshfield Clinic	$21,800	BGR Group	$20,500
Microsoft Corporation	$18,564	C. R. Bard, Inc.	$20,000
Source: OpenSecrets[74]

Top industries

Tammy Baldwin	Contribution	Tommy Thompson	Contribution
Women's Issues	$915,482	Retired	$858,276
Retired	$791,756	Leadership PACs	$244,804
Lawyers/Law Firms	$597,674	Financial Institutions	$243,636
Democratic/Liberal	$555,792	Lawyers/Law Firms	$228,379
Leadership PACs	$309,430	Real Estate	$227,687
Universities	$298,298	Pharmaceuticals/Health Products	$204,302
Human Rights Organizations	$215,539	Insurance Industry	$202,654
Health Professionals	$202,654	Manufacturing & Distributing	$169,104
Pro-Israel	$172,380	Health Professionals	$150,149
Business Services	$163,238	Lobbyists	$138,700
Source: OpenSecrets[75]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[76]	Tossup	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[77]	Lean D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[78]	Tossup	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[79]	Tossup	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tammy Baldwin (D)	Tommy Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	44%	45%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling[81]	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	42%	50%	—	8%
Public Policy Polling[82]	October 20–23, 2011	1,170	±2.9%	44%	46%	—	10%
Rasmussen Reports[83]	October 26, 2011	500	±4.5%	42%	49%	4%	6%
Marquette University[84]	February 16–19, 2012	716	±3.7%	42%	48%	1%	9%
Public Policy Polling[41]	February 23–26, 2012	900	±3.3%	46%	45%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports[85]	February 27, 2012	500	±4.5%	36%	50%	4%	10%
Rasmussen Reports[86]	March 27, 2012	500	±4.5%	44%	48%	4%	4%
Public Policy Polling[87]	April 13–15, 2012	1,136	±2.9%	45%	47%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports[88]	May 9, 2012	500	±4.5%	38%	50%	5%	7%
Public Policy Polling[89]	May 11–13, 2012	851	±3.4%	42%	47%	—	11%
Rasmussen Reports[90]	June 12, 2012	500	±4.5%	36%	52%	6%	6%
Marquette University[39]	June 13–16, 2012	707	±3.8%	41%	49%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling[37]	July 5–8, 2012	1,057	±3.0%	45%	45%	—	11%
Marquette University[36]	July 5–8, 2012	810	±3.5%	41%	45%	—	14%
Rasmussen Reports[91]	July 25, 2012	500	±4.5%	48%	41%	5%	6%
Marquette University[92]	August 2–5, 2012	1,400	±2.6%	43%	48%	—	5%
Quinnipiac[93]	July 31 – August 6, 2012	1,428	±2.6%	47%	47%	1%	5%
Rasmussen Reports[94]	August 15, 2012	500	±4.5%	43%	54%	1%	3%
Public Policy Polling[95]	August 16–19, 2012	1,308	±2.7%	44%	49%	—	7%
Marquette University[96]	August 16–19, 2012	576	±4.2%	41%	50%	—	9%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[97]	August 15–21, 2012	1,190	±3.0%	44%	50%	1%	4%
YouGov[98]	September 4–11, 2012	772	±n/a	42%	48%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling[99]	September 12–13, 2012	959	±n/a	48%	45%	—	6%
Marquette University[100]	September 13–16, 2012	705	±3.8%	50%	41%	—	5%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[101]	September 11–17, 2012	1,485	±2.5%	47%	47%	—	6%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[102]	September 16–18, 2012	968	±3.2%	48%	46%	—	5%
Public Policy Polling[103]	September 18–19, 2012	842	±3.4%	49%	45%	—	6%
We Ask America[104]	September 20–23, 2012	1,238	±2.8%	52%	40%	—	8%
Marquette University[105]	September 27–30, 2012	894	±3.3%	48%	44%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling[106]	October 4–6, 2012	979	±3.1%	49%	46%	—	6%
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac[107]	October 4–9, 2012	1,327	±2.7%	48%	46%	—	5%
Rasmussen Reports[108]	October 9, 2012	500	±4.5%	51%	47%	1%	2%
YouGov[109]	October 4–11, 2012	639	±4.9%	48%	43%	—	9%
Marquette University[110]	October 11–14, 2012	870	±3.3%	45%	46%	—	7%
NBC/WSJ/Marist Poll[111]	October 15–17, 2012	1,013	±3.1%	49%	45%	1%	5%
Mason-Dixon[112]	October 15–17, 2012	625	±4%	47%	45%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports[113]	October 18, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	48%	3%	3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion[114]	October 18–20, 2012	502	±4.5%	45%	42%	3%	11%
Rasmussen Reports[115]	October 25, 2012	500	±4.5%	47%	48%	2%	4%
Marquette University[116]	October 25–28, 2012	1,243	±2.8%	47%	43%	—	10%
St. Norbert College[117]	October 25–29, 2012	402	±5%	43%	46%	—	11%
Rasmussen Reports[115]	October 29, 2012	750	±4.0%	48%	48%	1%	2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[118]	October 31, 2012	1,065	±3.0%	48%	47%	4%	1%
WeAskAmerica[119]	October 31 – November 1, 2012	1,210	±3%	49%	46%	—	5%
YouGov[120]	October 31 – November 3, 2012	1,225	±3.1%	48%	47%	—	5%
Angus Reid Public Opinion[121]	November 1–3, 2012	482	±4.5%	50%	48%	2%	—
Public Policy Polling[122]	November 2–3, 2012	1,256	±2.8%	51%	48%	—	2%

Hypothetical polling

with Tammy Baldwin

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tammy Baldwin (D)	Jeff Fitzgerald (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	48%	37%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling[82]	October 20–23, 2011	1,170	±2.9%	44%	40%	—	16%
Rasmussen Reports[83]	October 26, 2011	500	±4.5%	46%	39%	4%	6%
Marquette University[84]	February 16–19, 2012	716	±3.7%	45%	37%	3%	15%
Public Policy Polling[41]	February 23–26, 2012	900	±3.3%	47%	39%	—	14%
Rasmussen Reports[85]	February 27, 2012	500	±4.5%	40%	41%	4%	15%
Rasmussen Reports[86]	March 27, 2012	500	±4.5%	48%	40%	4%	7%
Public Policy Polling[87]	April 13–15, 2012	1,136	±2.9%	47%	40%	—	13%
Rasmussen Reports[88]	May 9, 2012	500	±4.5%	45%	41%	4%	9%
Rasmussen Reports[115]	June 12, 2012	500	±4.5%	44%	43%	5%	8%
Marquette University[39]	June 13–16, 2012	707	±3.8%	45%	39%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling[37]	July 5–8, 2012	1,057	±3.0%	46%	42%	—	13%
Marquette University[36]	July 5–8, 2012	810	±3.5%	43%	37%	—	20%
Rasmussen Reports[115]	July 25, 2012	500	±4.5%	47%	37%	6%	10%
Marquette University[92]	August 2–5, 2012	1,400	±2.6%	45%	40%	—	7%
Quinnipiac[93]	July 31 – August 6, 2012	1,428	±2.6%	51%	39%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tammy Baldwin (D)	Eric Hovde (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[89]	May 11–13, 2012	851	±3.4%	41%	45%	—	14%
Rasmussen Reports[115]	June 12, 2012	500	±4.5%	42%	44%	4%	10%
Marquette University[39]	June 13–16, 2012	707	±3.8%	45%	36%	—	19%
Public Policy Polling[37]	July 5–8, 2012	1,057	±3.0%	44%	45%	—	11%
Marquette University[36]	July 5–8, 2012	810	±3.5%	44%	38%	—	18%
Rasmussen Reports[115]	July 25, 2012	500	±4.5%	45%	42%	5%	8%
Marquette University[92]	August 2–5, 2012	1,400	±2.6%	44%	41%	—	9%
Quinnipiac[93]	July 31 – August 6, 2012	1,428	±2.6%	47%	43%	1%	8%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tammy Baldwin (D)	Mark Neumann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	46%	41%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling[81]	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	40%	44%	—	15%
Public Policy Polling[82]	October 20–23, 2011	1,170	±2.9%	44%	43%	—	13%
Rasmussen Reports[83]	October 26, 2011	500	±4.5%	44%	43%	4%	9%
Marquette University[84]	February 16–19, 2012	716	±3.7%	44%	40%	2%	14%
Public Policy Polling[41]	February 23–26, 2012	900	±3.3%	47%	41%	—	12%
Rasmussen Reports[85]	February 27, 2012	500	±4.5%	37%	46%	4%	13%
Rasmussen Reports[86]	March 27, 2012	500	±4.5%	48%	40%	4%	8%
Public Policy Polling[87]	April 13–15, 2012	1,136	±2.9%	46%	45%	—	9%
Rasmussen Reports[88]	May 9, 2012	500	±4.5%	42%	44%	4%	9%
Public Policy Polling[89]	May 11–13, 2012	851	±3.4%	42%	46%	—	12%
Rasmussen Reports[115]	June 12, 2012	500	±4.5%	43%	45%	5%	7%
Marquette University[39]	June 13–16, 2012	707	±3.8%	44%	44%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling[37]	July 5–8, 2012	1,057	±3.0%	45%	41%	—	13%
Marquette University[36]	July 5–8, 2012	810	±3.5%	43%	40%	—	17%
Rasmussen Reports[115]	July 25, 2012	500	±4.5%	48%	42%	3%	8%
Marquette University[92]	August 2–5, 2012	1,400	±2.6%	44%	44%	—	6%
Quinnipiac[93]	July 31 – August 6, 2012	1,428	±2.6%	48%	45%	1%	6%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tammy Baldwin (D)	J. B. Van Hollen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	46%	39%	—	15%

with Russ Feingold

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Russ Feingold (D)	Jeff Fitzgerald (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	55%	39%	—	7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Russ Feingold (D)	Mark Neumann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[81]	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	51%	44%	—	5%
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	53%	41%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling[123]	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	50%	40%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Russ Feingold (D)	Paul Ryan (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124]	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	50%	43%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling[123]	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	49%	42%	—	9%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Russ Feingold (D)	Tommy Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124]	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	49%	40%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	52%	42%	—	6%
Public Policy Polling[81]	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	48%	47%	—	5%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Russ Feingold (D)	J. B. Van Hollen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124]	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	52%	41%	—	7%
Public Policy Polling[123]	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	51%	39%	—	10%
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	53%	38%	—	9%

with Steve Kagen

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Kagen (D)	Jeff Fitzgerald (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	43%	38%	—	19%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Kagen (D)	Mark Neumann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	42%	41%	—	17%
Public Policy Polling[81]	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	38%	45%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Kagen (D)	Tommy Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	42%	45%	—	13%
Public Policy Polling[81]	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	41%	49%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Kagen (D)	J. B. Van Hollen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	43%	38%	—	19%

with Ron Kind

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron Kind (D)	Jeff Fitzgerald (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	45%	37%	—	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron Kind (D)	Mark Neumann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	44%	40%	—	16%
Public Policy Polling[81]	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	40%	43%	—	17%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron Kind (D)	Tommy Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	44%	44%	—	12%
Public Policy Polling[81]	August 12–14, 2011	830	±3.4%	41%	48%	—	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Ron Kind (D)	J. B. Van Hollen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[80]	May 19–22, 2011	1,636	±2.4%	44%	38%	—	17%

with Herb Kohl

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Herb Kohl (D)	Mark Neumann (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[123]	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	51%	37%	—	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Herb Kohl (D)	Paul Ryan (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124]	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	48%	42%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling[123]	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	49%	42%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Herb Kohl (D)	Tommy Thompson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124]	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	49%	40%	—	11%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Herb Kohl (D)	J. B. Van Hollen (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[124]	December 10–12, 2010	702	±3.7%	51%	38%	—	11%
Public Policy Polling[123]	February 24–27, 2011	768	±3.5%	52%	37%	—	11%

Results

United States Senate election in Wisconsin, 2012^[125]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Tammy Baldwin	1,547,104	51.41%	−15.90%
	Republican	Tommy Thompson	1,380,126	45.86%	+16.38%
	Libertarian	Joseph Kexel	62,240	2.07%	N/A
	Independent	Nimrod Allen, III	16,455	0.55%	N/A
	Write-in		3,486	0.11%	+0.05%
Total votes			3,009,411	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican

• Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
• Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
• Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
• Calumet (largest city: Chilton)
• Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
• Iron (largest city: Hurley)
• Jefferson (largest city: Watertown)
• Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
• Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
• Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
• Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
• Marinette (largest city: Marinette)
• Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
• Oconto (largest city: Oconto)
• Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
• Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
• Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
• Shawano (largest city: Shawano)
• Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
• Waupaca (largest city: New London)
• Waushara (largest city: Berlin)
• Adams (largest city: Adams)
• Marquette (largest city: Montello)
• Polk (Largest city: Amery)
• Sheboygan (Largest city: Sheboygan)
• St. Croix (Largest city: Hudson)
• Taylor (Largest city: Medford)
• Florence (Largest city: Florence)
• Vilas (Largest city: Eagle River)
• Fond du Lac (Largest city: Fond du Lac)
• Green Lake (Largest city: Green Lake)
• Dodge (Largest city: Juneau)
• Ozaukee (Largest city: Mequon)
• Walworth (Largest city: Whitewater)
• Washington (Largest city: West Bend)
• Waukesha (Largest city: Waukesha)

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Thompson won five of eight congressional districts.^[126]

District	Thompson	Baldwin	Representative
1st	50.61%	46.56%	Paul Ryan
2nd	32.28%	65.82%	Mark Pocan
3rd	44.31%	52.77%	Ron Kind
4th	25.15%	72.93%	Gwen Moore
5th	61.06%	36.68%	Jim Sensenbrenner
6th	52.93%	44.05%	Tom Petri
7th	48.93%	48.06%	Sean Duffy
8th	50.21%	46.63%	Reid Ribble

Aftermath

Brian Schimming, the vice chairman of the Wisconsin Republican Party, partly blamed Thompson's defeat on the fact that he had to face a competitive primary whereas Baldwin was unopposed for the Democratic nomination: "[Thompson] blew all his money going through the primary. So when he gets through the primary, it was like three weeks before he was up on the air. [Baldwin] piled on immediately." He claimed "If [Thompson] hadn't had as ugly a primary, we could have won that seat."^[127]

See also

• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Wisconsin
• 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election