2012 Washington gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2012 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2012 Washington gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012.^[1] Candidates in the election were chosen in an August 7, 2012^[2] primary election, under the state's nonpartisan blanket primary system, which allows voters to vote for any candidate running in the race, regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who received the most votes in the primary election qualified for the general election.^[3]

2012 Washington gubernatorial election

← 2008 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2016 →

Candidate Jay Inslee Rob McKenna Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 1,582,802 1,488,245 Percentage 51.54% 48.46%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Inslee:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% McKenna:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      50%      No votes

Governor before election Christine Gregoire Democratic Elected Governor Jay Inslee Democratic

Incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire decided to retire rather than seek a third term.^[4] She endorsed fellow Democrat Jay Inslee, a U.S. Congressman, as her successor. On March 20, 2012, Inslee resigned from Congress in order to focus on his gubernatorial campaign.^[5]

Inslee and Republican Rob McKenna, the Attorney General of Washington, advanced to the general election. Inslee narrowly won the election, and McKenna conceded three days later.^[6]

Primary election

Democratic candidates

• Rob Hill
• Jay Inslee, U.S. Representative for WA-01 (1999–2012) and WA-04 (1993–1995)^[7]

Declined

• Lisa Brown, State Senate Majority Leader^[8]
• Dow Constantine, King County Executive^[9]
• Christine Gregoire, incumbent Governor^[4]
• Jim McIntire, State Treasurer^[10]
• Aaron Reardon, Snohomish County Executive^[11]
• Ron Sims, former King County Executive and Deputy Secretary of Housing and Urban Development^[12]
• Brian Sonntag, State Auditor^[13][14]

Republican candidates

• Shahram Hadian, pastor and small business owner^[15]
• Javier O. Lopez
• Rob McKenna, Attorney General of Washington^[16]
• Max Sampson

Declined

• Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative^[17]

Independent candidates

• Christian Joubert
• L. Dale Sorgen, computer programmer and former pastor^[18]
• James White

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Rob McKenna (R)	Jay Inslee (D)	Lisa Brown (D)	Dow Constantine (D)	Clint Didier (R)	Bill Bryant (R)	Brian Sonntag (D)	Aaron Reardon (D)	Undecided
Chism Strategies[19]	June 28–30, 2011	408 (LV)	± 5.0%	20%	17%	3%	3%	3%	2%	2%	1%	49%

Results

Results by county:

  Inslee—40–50%

  Inslee—50–60%

  McKenna—40–50%

  McKenna—50–60%

  McKenna—60–70%

Blanket primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jay Inslee	664,534	47.13%
	Republican	Rob McKenna	604,872	42.90%
	Republican	Shahram Hadian	46,169	3.27%
	Democratic	Rob Hill	45,453	3.22%
	Independent	James White	13,764	0.98%
	Independent	Christian Joubert	10,457	0.74%
	Independent	L. Dale Sorgen	9,734	0.69%
	Republican	Max Sampson	8,753	0.62%
	Republican	Javier O. Lopez	6,131	0.43%
Total votes			1,409,867	100.00%

General election

Candidates

• Jay Inslee (Democratic), former U.S. Representative
• Rob McKenna (Republican), Attorney General of Washington

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 2, 2012 - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[21]	Tossup	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22]	Lean D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report[23]	Tilt D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics[24]	Tossup	November 5, 2012

Endorsements

Jay Inslee (D)

U.S Presidents

• Barack Obama, 44th President of the United States^[25]

Newspapers

• The Olympian^[26]
• The Stranger^[27]

Rob McKenna (R)

U.S. Representatives

• Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative from Washington's 8th congressional district^[17]

Statewide officials

• Brian Sonntag, 9th Washington State Auditor (Democrat)^[28]

State legislators

• Mark Doumit, former state senator (Democrat)^[28]
• Tim Sheldon, state senator (Democrat)^[28]

Newspapers

• The Columbian^[26]
• The Daily News^[26]
• The Daily World^[26]
• The Everett Herald^[26]
• The News Tribune^[26]
• The Seattle Times^[26]
• The Spokesman-Review^[26]
• Tri-City Herald^[26]
• Walla Walla Union-Bulletin^[26]
• The Wenatchee World^[26]
• Yakima Herald-Republic^[26]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Jay Inslee (D)	Rob McKenna (R)	Other/Undecided [b]	Margin
Real Clear Politics[29]	October 14 – November 3, 2012	November 3, 2012	47.3%	46.3%	6.4%	Inslee +1.0%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Rob McKenna (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[30]	November 1–3, 2012	932	± 3.2%	50%	48%	2%
KING5/SurveyUSA[31]	October 28–31, 2012	555	± 4.2%	47%	46%	7%
KCTS 9/Washington Poll[32]	October 18–31, 2012	632	± 3.9%	49%	46%	6%
Elway Poll[33]	October 18–21, 2012	451	± 4.5%	45%	47%	10%
Strategies360[34]	October 17–20, 2012	500	± 4.4%	45%	45%	10%
Public Policy Polling/WCV[35]	October 15–16, 2012	574	± n/a%	48%	42%	10%
KCTS 9/Washington Poll[36]	October 1–16, 2012	782	± 3.5%	48%	45%	8%
Rasmussen Reports[37]	October 14, 2012	500	± 4.5%	47%	45%	9%
SurveyUSA[38]	October 12–14, 2012	543	± 4.3%	47%	44%	9%
SurveyUSA[39]	September 28–30, 2012	540	± 4.3%	48%	42%	10%
Rasmussen Reports[40]	September 26, 2012	500	± 4.5%	46%	45%	9%
Public Elway Poll[41]	September 9–12, 2012	405	± 5%	44%	41%	15%
Public Policy Polling[42]	September 7–9, 2012	563	± 4.2%	48%	42%	10%
Survey USA[43]	September 7–9, 2012	524	± 4.4%	49%	44%	7%
Survey USA[44]	August 2–3, 2012	524	± 4.4%	48%	45%	7%
Elway Poll[45]	July 18–22, 2012	405	± 5.0%	43%	36%	21%
Survey USA[46]	July 16–17, 2012	630	± 4.0%	41%	42%	16%
Public Policy Polling[47]	June 14–17, 2012	1,073	± 3.0%	40%	43%	17%
Elway Poll[48]	June 13–16, 2012	408	± 5.0%	40%	42%	18%
Strategies360[49]	May 22–24, 2012	500	± 4.4%	39%	43%	18%
Survey USA[50]	May 8–9, 2012	557	± 4.2%	38%	40%	22%
Grove Insights (D)[51][A]	March 26–28, 2012	500	± 4.4%	38%	34%	28%
Grove Insights (D)[52][A]	February 21–23, 2012	500	± 4.4%	38%	38%	24%
Public Policy Polling[53]	February 16–19, 2012	1,264	± 2.8%	42%	42%	16%
Survey USA[54]	February 13–15, 2012	572	± 4.2%	39%	49%	12%
Elway Poll[55]	February 7–9, 2012	405	± 5.0%	36%	45%	19%
Survey USA[56]	January 12–16, 2012	617	± 4.0%	43%	46%	11%
Survey USA[57]	November 21–23, 2011	549	± 4.3%	38%	44%	17%
Washington Poll[58]	October 10–30, 2011	938	± 3.2%	38%	44%	18%
Survey USA[59]	September 21–22, 2011	529	± 4.3%	38%	44%	18%
Survey USA[60]	June 24–26, 2011	600	± 4.4%	47%	44%	9%
Public Policy Polling[61]	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	± 3.0%	38%	40%	22%
Survey USA[62]	April 27–28, 2011	610	± 4.0%	41%	48%	11%

Hypothetical polling

Christine Gregoire vs. Rob McKenna

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Christine Gregoire (D)	Rob McKenna (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[61]	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	± 3.0%	40%	49%	11%
Survey USA[62]	April 27–28, 2011	610	± 4.0%	40%	52%	7%

Christine Gregoire vs. Dave Reichert

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Christine Gregoire (D)	Dave Reichert (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[61]	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	± 3.0%	45%	41%	14%
Survey USA[62]	April 27–28, 2011	610	± 4.0%	44%	48%	8%

Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jay Inslee (D)	Dave Reichert (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[61]	May 12–15, 2011	1,098	± 3.0%	42%	36%	22%
Survey USA[62]	April 27–28, 2011	610	± 4.0%	44%	46%	10%

Lisa Brown vs. Rob McKenna

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lisa Brown (D)	Rob McKenna (R)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[63]	July 27-August 1, 2010	1,204	± 2.8%	29%	47%	24%

Results

The race was close throughout the night, with results too close to call after 60 percent of ballots were cast.^[64] Inslee was declared the winner early in the morning three days later; McKenna conceded later in the evening.^[65]

Inslee won only eight of the state's 39 counties, relying on heavy votes from the Seattle metropolitan area pushing him to victory.^[66]

2012 Washington gubernatorial election^[67]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jay Inslee	1,582,802	51.54%	−1.70%
	Republican	Rob McKenna	1,488,245	48.46%	+1.70%
Majority			94,557	3.08%
Total votes			3,071,047	100.00%
	Democratic hold		Swing	-3.40%

By county

County[68]	Jay Inslee Democratic		Rob McKenna Republican		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%
Adams	1,408	29.78%	3,320	70.22%	-1,912	-40.44%	4,728
Asotin	4,027	41.50%	5,677	58.50%	-1,650	-17.00%	9,704
Benton	27,291	34.97%	50,757	65.03%	-23,466	-30.07%	78,048
Chelan	11,616	36.41%	20,291	63.59%	-8,675	-27.19%	31,907
Clallam	17,516	46.66%	20,021	53.34%	-2,505	-6.67%	37,537
Clark	86,732	46.92%	98,131	53.08%	-11,399	-6.17%	184,863
Columbia	656	29.54%	1,565	70.46%	-909	-40.93%	2,221
Cowlitz	21,051	48.21%	22,612	51.79%	-1,561	-3.58%	43,663
Douglas	4,746	31.88%	10,139	68.12%	-5,393	-36.23%	14,885
Ferry	1,299	37.98%	2,121	62.02%	-822	-24.04%	3,420
Franklin	8,181	36.50%	14,232	63.50%	-6,051	-27.00%	22,413
Garfield	333	26.58%	920	73.42%	-587	-46.85%	1,253
Grant	8,654	31.59%	18,742	68.41%	-10,088	-36.82%	27,396
Grays Harbor	14,491	50.90%	13,978	49.10%	513	1.80%	28,469
Island	19,324	46.67%	22,082	53.33%	-2,758	-6.66%	41,406
Jefferson	12,176	62.29%	7,370	37.71%	4,806	24.59%	19,546
King	590,879	62.36%	356,713	37.64%	234,166	24.71%	947,592
Kitsap	60,578	49.72%	61,261	50.28%	-683	-0.56%	121,839
Kittitas	7,137	39.90%	10,752	60.10%	-3,615	-20.21%	17,889
Klickitat	4,442	44.07%	5,638	55.93%	-1,196	-11.87%	10,080
Lewis	11,865	35.03%	22,002	64.97%	-10,137	-29.93%	33,867
Lincoln	1,716	29.57%	4,088	70.43%	-2,372	-40.87%	5,804
Mason	13,175	47.25%	14,708	52.75%	-1,533	-5.50%	27,883
Okanogan	6,759	40.55%	9,909	59.45%	-3,150	-18.90%	16,668
Pacific	5,379	51.73%	5,020	48.27%	359	3.45%	10,399
Pend Oreille	2,442	37.06%	4,148	62.94%	-1,706	-25.89%	6,590
Pierce	164,211	48.54%	174,078	51.46%	-9,867	-2.92%	338,289
San Juan	6,763	64.82%	3,671	35.18%	3,092	29.63%	10,434
Skagit	25,878	47.33%	28,803	52.67%	-2,925	-5.35%	54,681
Skamania	2,434	45.92%	2,867	54.08%	-433	-8.17%	5,301
Snohomish	166,452	51.23%	158,440	48.77%	8,012	2.47%	324,892
Spokane	95,354	43.49%	123,894	56.51%	-28,540	-13.02%	219,248
Stevens	7,426	33.79%	14,554	66.21%	-7,128	-32.43%	21,980
Thurston	67,353	53.75%	57,948	46.25%	9,405	7.51%	125,301
Wahkiakum	964	42.83%	1,287	57.17%	-323	-14.35%	2,251
Walla Walla	9,353	38.03%	15,238	61.97%	-5,885	-23.93%	24,591
Whatcom	53,599	53.10%	47,340	46.90%	6,259	6.20%	100,939
Whitman	7,351	43.83%	9,421	56.17%	-2,070	-12.34%	16,772
Yakima	31,791	41.67%	44,507	58.33%	-12,716	-16.67%	76,298
Totals	1,582,802	51.54%	1,488,245	48.46%	94,557	3.08%	3,071,047

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Island (largest city: Oak Harbor)
• Kitsap (largest city: Bremerton)
• Pierce (largest city: Tacoma)
• Skagit (largest city: Mount Vernon)

By congressional district

Inslee won five of ten congressional districts, with the remaining five going to McKenna, including one that elected a Democrat.^[69]

District	Inslee	McKenna	Representative
1st	48%	52%	Suzan DelBene
2nd	54%	46%	Rick Larsen
3rd	46%	54%	Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th	37%	63%	Doc Hastings
5th	42%	58%	Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th	51%	49%	Norm Dicks
			Derek Kilmer
7th	74%	26%	Jim McDermott
8th	43%	57%	Dave Reichert
9th	61%	39%	Adam Smith
10th	51%	49%	Denny Heck

See also

• 2016 Washington gubernatorial election

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the Service Employees International Union, which supports Inslee