2014 United States Senate election in Oregon

The 2014 United States Senate election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oregon, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Oregon, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2014 United States Senate election in Oregon

← 2008 November 4, 2014 2020 →

Nominee Jeff Merkley Monica Wehby Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 814,537 538,847 Percentage 55.73% 36.87%

County results Merkley:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Wehby:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

U.S. senator before election Jeff Merkley Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Jeff Merkley Democratic

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley successfully ran for reelection to a second term. Despite it being a national midterm Republican wave, this was actually a stronger Senate election for him in terms of margin of victory, winning by almost 20% and carrying nine additional counties he had lost in 2008.^[1] Primary elections were held on May 20, 2014. Merkley easily won the Democratic nomination, while the Republicans nominated pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby. Initially, the race was considered potentially competitive, but Wehby's campaign began to collapse after she faced multiple allegations of stalking and harassment from former partners, and was found to have plagiarized portions of her campaign website.^[2]

Background

Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, had narrowly defeated two-term Republican incumbent Gordon H. Smith with 49% of the vote in 2008.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• William Bryk, attorney from New York and perennial candidate^[3]
• Pavel Goberman, fitness instructor and perennial candidate^[4]
• Jeff Merkley, incumbent senator^[1]

Results

Democratic primary results^[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jeff Merkley (incumbent)	277,120	92.04%
	Democratic	William Bryk	11,330	3.76%
	Democratic	Pavel Goberman	8,436	2.81%
		write-ins	4,194	1.39%
Total votes			301,080	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Mark Callahan, information technology consultant and perennial candidate^[6]
• Jason Conger, state representative^[7]
• Tim Crawley, attorney^[8]
• Jo Rae Perkins, former Chairwoman of the Linn County Republican Party and candidate for Mayor of Albany in 2010^[6]
• Monica Wehby, pediatric neurosurgeon^[9]

Withdrew

• Sam Carpenter, businessman^[10]

Declined

• Bruce Hanna, state representative^[11]
• Rick Miller, owner and founder of Avamere^[12]
• Gordon H. Smith, former U.S. Senator^[13]
• Greg Walden, U.S. Representative and Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee^[14]

Endorsements

Jason Conger

Individuals

• Rick Santorum, former U.S. Representative and former U.S. Senator (R-PA) and candidate for president in 2012^[15]

Organizations

• Oregon Right to Life^[16]

Newspapers

• Statesman Journal^[17]
• Willamette Week^[16]

Monica Wehby

Individuals

• Ben Carson, retired surgeon and conservative activist^{[citation needed]}
• Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives^[18]
• Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and nominee for President in 2012^[19]

Newspapers

• The Oregonian^[20]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Callahan	Jason Conger	Tim Crawley	Jo Rae Perkins	Monica Wehby	Undecided
Benenson Strategy Group[21]	April 14–17, 2014	410	± ?	—	24%	—	—	22%	55%
Wenzel Strategies[22]	May 1–4, 2014	607	± ?	4%	22%	3%	3%	43%	26%
Public Opinion Strategies[23]	May 12–13, 2014	500	± 4.38%	2%	24%	2%	2%	41%	26%

Results

Results by county:

  Wehby

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

  Conger

•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

Republican primary results^[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Monica Wehby	134,627	49.96%
	Republican	Jason Conger	101,401	37.63%
	Republican	Mark Callahan	18,220	6.76%
	Republican	Jo Rae Perkins	7,602	2.82%
	Republican	Tim Crawley	6,566	2.44%
	Write-in		1,027	0.39%
Total votes			266,438	100.00%

Independents

The filing deadline for independent candidates is August 26, 2014. In order to qualify, a candidate must submit 17,893 signatures of registered voters or obtain signatures from at least 1,000 electors at a valid assembly of electors.^[24]

Candidates

Declared

• Karl King, massage therapist^[25]

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 14, 2014

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[26]	Likely D	November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[27]	Likely D	November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[28]	Likely D	November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[29]	Likely D	November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Monica Wehby (R)	Other	Undecided
Harper Polling[30]	April 1–2, 2014	670	± 3.91%	46%	34%	—	20%
Benenson Strategy Group[21]	April 14–17, 2014	600	± 4%	52%	32%	—	16%
Rasmussen Reports[31]	May 21–22, 2014	750	± 4%	47%	37%	5%	11%
Public Policy Polling[32]	May 22–27, 2014	956	± 3.2%	50%	36%	—	15%
The Tarrance Group*[33]	June 1–3, 2014	615	± 4.1%	41%	39%	9%[34]	11%
SurveyUSA[35]	June 5–9, 2014	560	± 4.2%	50%	32%	9%	9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[36]	July 5–24, 2014	2,088	± 2.6%	53%	39%	1%	7%
SurveyUSA[37]	August 1–5, 2014	564	± 4.2%	52%	33%	7%	9%
Moore Information^[38]	August 5–9, 2014	500	± 4%	47%	38%	—	16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[39]	August 18 – September 2, 2014	1,541	± 4%	51%	39%	1%	9%
Rasmussen Reports[31]	September 2–3, 2014	750	± 4%	48%	35%	5%	12%
Polling Company/WomanTrend[40]	September 9–11, 2014	600	± 4%	42%	34%	7%[41]	14%
SurveyUSA[42]	September 22–24, 2014	568	± 4.2%	52%	32%	8%	8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[43]	September 20 – October 1, 2014	1,508	± 3%	52%	39%	1%	8%
DHM Research[44]	October 2014	?	± 4.3%	47%	26%	6%	19%
SurveyUSA[45]	October 16–19, 2014	561	± 4.2%	53%	32%	7%	8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[43]	October 16–23, 2014	1,421	± 4%	51%	39%	1%	9%
SurveyUSA[46]	October 23–27, 2014	552	± 4.3%	53%	32%	8%	6%
Elway Research[47]	October 26–27, 2014	403	± 5%	49%	30%	3%[48]	18%

• ^ Internal poll for Dennis Richardson campaign
• * Internal poll for Monica Wehby campaign

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Allen Alley (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[49]	June 21–24, 2012	686	± 3.7%	43%	37%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling[50]	December 3–5, 2012	614	± 4%	53%	36%	—	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Jason Atkinson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[49]	June 21–24, 2012	686	± 3.7%	43%	34%	—	23%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Jason Conger (R)	Other	Undecided
Harper Polling[30]	April 1–2, 2014	670	± 3.91%	47%	40%	—	12%
Benenson Strategy Group[21]	April 14–17, 2014	600	± 4%	50%	34%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Bruce Hanna (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[49]	June 21–24, 2012	686	± 3.7%	43%	35%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling[50]	December 3–5, 2012	614	± 4%	52%	34%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Gordon Smith (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[50]	December 3–5, 2012	614	± 4%	47%	43%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Bruce Starr (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[50]	December 3–5, 2012	614	± 4%	52%	32%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Greg Walden (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[49]	June 21–24, 2012	686	± 3.7%	40%	42%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling[50]	December 3–5, 2012	614	± 4%	47%	42%	—	11%

Results

United States Senate election in Oregon, 2014^[51]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jeff Merkley (incumbent)	814,537	55.73%	+6.83%
	Republican	Monica Wehby	538,847	36.87%	−8.68%
	Libertarian	Mike Monchalin	44,916	3.07%	N/A
	Pacific Green	Christina Jean Lugo	32,434	2.22%	N/A
	Constitution	James E. Leuenberger	24,212	1.66%	−3.58%
	n/a	Write-ins	6,672	0.45%	N/A
Total votes			1,461,618	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Clackamas (largest city: Lake Oswego)
• Coos (largest city: Coos Bay)
• Deschutes (largest city: Bend)
• Jackson (largest city: Medford)
• Marion (largest city: Salem)
• Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)
• Polk (largest city: Salem)
• Yamhill (largest city: McMinnville)

See also

• 2014 United States Senate elections
• 2014 United States elections
• 2014 Oregon gubernatorial election