2016 United States Senate election in Alaska

The 2016 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2016 United States Senate election in Alaska

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →

Nominee Lisa Murkowski Joe Miller Party Republican Libertarian Popular vote 138,149 90,825 Percentage 44.36% 29.16%   Nominee Margaret Stock Ray Metcalfe Party Independent Democratic Popular vote 41,194 36,200 Percentage 13.23% 11.62%

State house district results Borough and census area results Precinct results Murkowski:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Miller:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70% Stock:      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Metcalfe:      20–30%      30–40% Tie%/No Votes:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      N/A

U.S. senator before election Lisa Murkowski Republican Elected U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski Republican

Incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski won re-election to a third term in office.^[1] The primaries were held on August 16.^[2] She was challenged by several candidates, including Democrat Ray Metcalfe, a former Republican state legislator; Independent Margaret Stock, an attorney; and Libertarian Joe Miller, who had defeated Murkowski for the Republican nomination six years before.^[3]

Murkowski was re-elected with 44.4% of the vote, becoming the first person in history to win three elections to the U.S. Senate with pluralities but not majorities, having taken 48.6% in 2004 and 39.5% in 2010.^[4] Miller's 29.2% finish was then the best ever for a Libertarian candidate in a U.S. Senate election in terms of vote percentage.^[a] This record was surpassed four years later by Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., who received 33.4% of the vote in the 2020 Arkansas Senate election, which had no Democratic candidate. This was also the first U.S. Senate election where four candidates received more than 10% of the vote since the 1942 Minnesota race, as well as being the first Senate race since then where the Democratic nominee finished fourth.

Background

After Republican U.S. Senator Frank Murkowski was elected Governor of Alaska in 2002, he appointed his daughter Lisa to the Senate to replace him. She was elected to a full term in 2004 but was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010 by Tea Party challenger Joe Miller.^[6] She ran as a write-in candidate in the general election and was re-elected to a second full term with 39.5% of the vote to Miller's 35.5% and Democratic nominee Scott McAdams' 23.5%.^[7][8] She is one of only two U.S. Senators to be elected via write-in votes, the other being Strom Thurmond in 1954.^[9]

Republican primary

As Murkowski was defeated in the Republican primary in 2010, it had been speculated that she would be challenged from the right again in 2016.^[10][11]

Candidates

Declared

• Paul Kendall^[12]
• Thomas Lamb, candidate for the state house in 2006^[12][13]
• Bob Lochner, mechanic and candidate for the state house in 1996^[12][14]
• Lisa Murkowski, incumbent U.S. Senator since 2002^[2]

Withdrew

• Dan Sullivan, former mayor of Anchorage and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014^[15] (Not related to Alaska's other senator, also named Dan Sullivan)

Declined

• David Cuddy, former state representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2008^[16]
• Mike J. Dunleavy, state senator^[17][18]
• Joe Miller, former magistrate judge, the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010 and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^{[17][19][20][21]}
• Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008^[22][23]
• Sean Parnell, former governor of Alaska and candidate for Congress in 2008^[24]
• Mead Treadwell, former lieutenant governor and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014^[17]

Endorsements

Lisa Murkowski

Governors

• Bill Weld, 68th Governor of Massachusetts, and 2016 Libertarian Party vice presidential nominee^[25]

U.S. Senators

• Dan Sullivan, Alaska^[26]

Bob Lochner

• Alaska Right to Life^[27]
• Alaska Republican Assembly^[28]
• Bruce Walden, 2016 Veterans Party nominee for U.S. Senate^[29]

Results

Republican primary results^[30]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Lisa Murkowski (incumbent)	39,545	71.52%
	Republican	Bob Lochner	8,480	15.34%
	Republican	Paul Kendall	4,272	7.73%
	Republican	Thomas Lamb	2,996	5.42%
Total votes			55,293	100.00%

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination.

Democratic candidates

Declared

• Edgar Blatchford, founder and former editor and publisher of Alaska Newspapers, Inc., former mayor of Seward and former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Commerce, Community and Economic Development^[31]
• Ray Metcalfe, former Republican state representative and founder of the Republican Moderate Party of Alaska

Removed

• Richard Grayson, perennial candidate from New York^[12]

Declined

• Mark Begich, former U.S. Senator^{[32][33][34][35]}

Libertarian candidates

Declared

• Cean Stevens, small business owner, nominee for the state house in 2014 and Republican nominee for the state house in 2012^[12][36]

Results

Primary results^[30]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Ray Metcalfe	15,228	50.06%
	Democratic	Edgar Blatchford	10,090	33.17%
	Libertarian	Cean Stevens	5,102	16.77%
Total votes			30,420	100.00%

Subsequent events

Cean Stevens was originally the only Libertarian to file, and was the sole Libertarian in the primary. Stevens withdrew after winning the nomination, and the Alaska Libertarian Party nominated Joe Miller as her replacement.^[3]

Third party and independent candidates

Declared

• Breck Craig (independent)^[37]
• Ted Gianoutsos (independent), founder of the Veterans Party of Alaska and perennial candidate^[37]
• Margaret Stock (independent), attorney and retired Army Lt. Colonel^[38][37]

Failed to qualify

• Sid Hill (independent)^[37]
• Bruce Walden (Veterans Party), retired army sergeant and Republican candidate for the state house in 2006^{[37][39][40][29]}
• Jed Whittaker (independent), commercial fisherman, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 1992 and Green Party nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996^[37][41]

Declined

• Mark Begich (write-in), former U.S. Senator^[42][43]

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, November 4, 2016 - C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Lisa Murkowski (R)[44]	$6,058,418	$7,055,457	$91,119
Ray Metcalfe (D)[45]	$20,865	$13,147	$7,718
Margaret Stock (I)[46]	$740,769	$738,918	$1,850
Joe Miller (L)[47]	$122	$445	$99,402

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[48]	Likely R	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49]	Safe R	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[50]	Safe R	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[51]	Safe R	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[52]	Safe R	November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lisa Murkowski (R)	Joe Miller (L)	Ray Metcalfe (D)	Margaret Stock (I)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information[53]	October 5–6, 2016	500	± 4.0%	49%	16%	9%	8%	1%	15%
Alaska Survey Research[54]	September 28 – October 2, 2016	660	± 3.8%	50%	18%	12%	7%	2%	11%
Moore Information[55]	September 13–15, 2016	500	±4.0%	48%	15%	15%	7%	1%	12%
Moore Information (R-Murkowski)[56]	August 27–29, 2016	500	± 4.0%	56%	—	12%	5%	10%[57]	17%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Lisa Murkowski (R)	Ray Metcalfe (D)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey[58]	November 1–7, 2016	409	± 4.6%	55%	33%	12%
SurveyMonkey[59]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	382	± 4.6%	57%	32%	11%
SurveyMonkey[60]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	303	± 4.6%	60%	25%	15%
SurveyMonkey[61]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	334	± 4.6%	56%	30%	14%
SurveyMonkey[62]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	268	± 4.6%	60%	22%	18%
SurveyMonkey[63]	October 25–31, 2016	300	± 4.6%	57%	26%	22%

Endorsements

Lisa Murkowski (R)

Individuals

• Dan Sullivan, U.S. Senator^[64]
• Bill Weld, former governor of Massachusetts and Libertarian nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2016^[25]

Labor unions

• National Education Association^[65]

Organizations

• National Rifle Association - Political Victory Fund^[66]
• United States Chamber of Commerce^[67]

Joe Miller (L)

Individuals

• Amy Demboski, Anchorage Assemblywoman and candidate for Mayor of Anchorage in 2015^[68]
• Paul Kendall, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[69]
• Tom Lamb, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[69]
• Bob Lochner, Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[69]
• Mark Levin, host of The Mark Levin Show^[70]

Organizations

• Alaska Republican Assembly^[71]
• Alaska Right to Life^[72]
• Gun Owners of America^[73]

Margaret Stock (I)

Individuals

• Mark Begich, former U.S. Senator^[74]
• Jeff King, Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race champion^[75]

Organizations

• The Centrist Project^[76]

Results

2016 United States Senate election in Alaska^[77]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Lisa Murkowski (incumbent)	138,149	44.36%	+8.87%
	Libertarian	Joe Miller	90,825	29.16%	+28.59%
	Independent	Margaret Stock	41,194	13.23%	N/A
	Democratic	Ray Metcalfe	36,200	11.62%	−11.84%
	Independent	Breck A. Craig	2,609	0.84%	N/A
	Independent	Ted Gianoutsos	1,758	0.56%	N/A
	Write-in		706	0.23%	−39.70%
Total votes			311,441	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Haines Borough (largest census-designated place: Haines)
• Juneau
• Sitka
• Skagway

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Republican to Libertarian

• Matanuska-Susitna Borough (largest census-designated place: Knik-Fairview)
• Kenai Peninsula Borough (largest city: Kenai)

Notes

1. The Libertarian Party of Massachusetts set the total vote records in 2000 and 2002 with over 300,000 both times and in races with and without Republican opponents; Gary Johnson also won over 100,000 votes in New Mexico in 2018.^[5]