2016 United States Senate election in Vermont

The 2016 United States Senate election in Vermont was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 9.

2016 United States Senate election in Vermont

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Nominee Patrick Leahy Scott Milne Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 192,243 103,637 Percentage 61.26% 33.03%

County results Municipality results Leahy:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90% Milne:      40-50%      50-60%      60-70%

U.S. senator before election Patrick Leahy Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy Democratic

Incumbent Democratic Senator Patrick Leahy, the most senior member in the Senate, the longest-serving U.S. Senator from Vermont, and the first Democrat to be elected to a Senate seat in Vermont, won re-election to a record eighth term in office.^[1]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Cris Ericson, perennial candidate, later ran as Marijuana Party nominee (also ran for governor)^[2]
• Patrick Leahy, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Democratic primary results^[3]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Patrick Leahy (incumbent)	62,412	89.15%
	Democratic	Cris Ericson	7,595	10.85%
Total votes			70,007	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Scott Milne, businessman, candidate for the State House in 2006 and nominee for governor in 2014^[4][5]

Liberty Union primary

This election was the last in which Diamondstone ran prior to his death in 2017. Diamondstone had run for Vermont statewide office in every biennial election since 1970.

Candidates

Declared

• Peter Diamondstone, LU party co-founder, lawyer, and perennial candidate^[6]

Other candidacies

Declared

• Jerry Trudell, independent candidate, environmental activist, candidate for House of Representatives in 2014^[7]
• Cris Ericson, Marijuana Party perennial candidate, previously sought Democratic nomination

General election

Candidates

• Patrick Leahy (D)
• Scott Milne (R)
• Jerry Trudell (I)
• Peter Diamondstone (LU)
• Cris Ericson (MJ)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[8]	Safe D	November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9]	Safe D	November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[10]	Safe D	November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[11]	Safe D	November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[12]	Safe D	November 7, 2016

Debates

Dates	Location	Leahy	Milne	Ericson	Trudell	Diamondstone	Link
October 18, 2016	Burlington, Vermont	Participant	Participant	Participant	Participant	Participant	[13]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Patrick Leahy (D)	Scott Milne (R)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey[14]	November 1–7, 2016	454	± 4.6%	75%	24%	—	1%
SurveyMonkey[15]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	447	± 4.6%	75%	24%	—	1%
SurveyMonkey[16]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	449	± 4.6%	69%	28%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey[17]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	424	± 4.6%	65%	32%	—	3%
SurveyMonkey[18]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	428	± 4.6%	64%	34%	—	2%
SurveyMonkey[19]	October 25–31, 2016	436	± 4.6%	64%	33%	—	3%
Braun Research/WCAX[20]	October 19–22, 2016	603	± 4.0%	64%	29%	3%	5%
Castleton University[21]	September 29 – October 14, 2016	579	± 3.9%	59%	22%	7%	10%
Emerson College[22]	September 2–5, 2016	600	± 3.9%	57%	34%	4%	5%
Castleton University[23]	July 11–23, 2016	637	± 3.9%	62%	23%	1%	11%

Results

United States Senate election in Vermont, 2016^[24][25]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Patrick Leahy (incumbent)	192,243	61.26%	−3.10%
	Republican	Scott Milne	103,637	33.03%	+2.10%
	Marijuana	Cris Ericson	9,156	2.92%	+1.76%
	Independent	Jerry Trudell	5,223	1.66%	N/A
	Liberty Union	Peter Diamondstone	3,241	1.03%	+0.42%
	Write-in		309	0.10%	N/A
Total votes			313,809	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Essex (largest town: Lunenburg)