2017 Lower Saxony state election

The 2017 Lower Saxony state election was held on 15 October 2017 to elect the 18th Landtag of Lower Saxony. The incumbent coalition government of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and The Greens led by Minister-President Stephan Weil was defeated. Though the SPD became the largest party in the Landtag largely fueled by the personal popularity of Weil, their gains were offset by losses for the Greens, depriving the government of its majority. The SPD subsequently formed a grand coalition with the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), and Weil continued as Minister-President.

2017 Lower Saxony state election

← 2013 15 October 2017 2022 →
All 137 seats in the Landtag of Lower Saxony 69 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	3,828,003 (63.1%) 3.7%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Stephan Weil Bernd Althusmann Anja Piel Party SPD CDU Greens Last election 49 seats, 32.6% 54 seats, 36.0% 20 seats, 13.7% Seats won 55 50 12 Seat change 6 4 8 Popular vote 1,413,990 1,287,191 334,130 Percentage 36.9% 33.6% 8.7% Swing 4.3% 2.4% 5.0%   Fourth party Fifth party   Leader Stefan Birkner Dana Guth Party FDP AfD Last election 14 seats, 9.9% Did not exist Seats won 11 9 Seat change 3 9 Popular vote 287,957 235,863 Percentage 7.5% 6.2% Swing 2.4% Did not exist
Results for the single-member constituencies
Government before election First Weil cabinet SPD–Green Government after election Second Weil cabinet SPD–CDU

This was the last election, state or federal, in which the SPD gained seats or increased their share of the popular vote until the 2021 German federal election and 2021 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election which both took place on the same day in September 2021.

Background

Following the 2013 state election, a red-green coalition between the SPD and Greens was formed, holding a one-seat majority in the Landtag. After Green parliamentarian Elke Twesten controversially defected to the CDU on 4 August 2017, the coalition lost its majority,^[1] which prompted Minister-President Stephan Weil to schedule an early election for 15 October.^[2] The Landtag was officially dissolved on 21 August after 135 of 137 parliamentarians voted in favor, with 91 votes required for its dissolution.^[3]

Electoral system

The Landtag of Lower Saxony is elected using mixed-member proportional representation. Its minimum size is 135 seats. Of these, 87 are elected in single-member constituencies, and the remainder are determined by party lists. Voters have two votes: the "first vote" for candidates within each individual constituency, and the "second vote" for party lists. There is an electoral threshold of 5% of second vote to qualify for seats. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method, with additional overhang and leveling seats provided to ensure proportionality. The normal term of the Landtag is 5 years.^[4]

Parties

The table below lists parties represented in the 17th Landtag of Lower Saxony.

Name			Ideology	Leader(s)	2013 result
					Votes (%)	Seats
	CDU	Christian Democratic Union of Germany Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands	Christian democracy	Bernd Althusmann	36.0%	54 / 137
	SPD	Social Democratic Party of Germany Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands	Social democracy	Stephan Weil	32.6%	49 / 137
	Grüne	Alliance 90/The Greens Bündnis 90/Die Grünen	Green politics	Anja Piel	13.7%	20 / 137
	FDP	Free Democratic Party Freie Demokratische Partei	Classical liberalism	Stefan Birkner	9.9%	14 / 137

Opinion polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CDU	SPD	Grüne	FDP	Linke	AfD	Others	Lead
2017 state election	15 Oct 2017	–	33.6	36.9	8.7	7.5	4.6	6.2	2.4	3.3
Civey	25 Sep–13 Oct 2017	5,073	31.8	34.6	8.5	8.9	5.7	7.8	2.7	2.8
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	10–11 Oct 2017	1,001	33	34.5	9	9	5	7	2.5	1.5
INSA	4–6 Oct 2017	1,005	32	33	10	10	5	7	3	1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	2–5 Oct 2017	1,083	33	33	9	10	5	7	3	Tie
Infratest dimap	2–4 Oct 2017	1,002	34	34	8.5	8	4.5	8	3	Tie
Civey	24 Sep–1 Oct 2017	4,570	33.1	32.8	9.9	8.0	5.4	8.1	2.7	0.3
Infratest dimap	26–27 Sep 2017	1,004	35	34	9	8	5	6	3	1
2017 federal election	24 Sep 2017	–	34.9	27.4	8.7	9.3	6.9	9.1	3.6	7.5
Infratest dimap	30 Aug–5 Sep 2017	1,001	37	32	10	6	5	7	3	5
dimap	18–26 Aug 2017	1,003	39	31	8	8	4	8	2	8
INSA	9 Aug 2017	1,000	40	28	9	9	5	7	2	12
Infratest dimap	8–9 Aug 2017	1,003	40	32	9	7	3	6	3	8
INSA	18–23 May 2017	1,000	41	27	8	9	5	6	4	14
Forsa	18–28 Apr 2017	1,001	35	36	8	6	4	6	5	1
Infratest dimap	13–18 Jan 2017	1,002	35	31	14	6	4	8	2	4
Forsa	22 Dec 2016–9 Jan 2017	1,000	34	32	12	6	4	7	5	2
INSA	6–14 Oct 2016	1,000	33	31	12	8	5	7	4	2
Forsa	23 Oct–20 Nov 2015	1,002	35	33	14	6	4	4	4	2
INSA	21 Aug–2 Sep 2015	1,000	37	29	14	6	6	3	5	8
Infratest dimap	26 Jun–1 Jul 2015	1,000	40	31	14	5	5	2	3	9
GMS	8–13 Jan 2015	1,012	41	30	14	3	4	4	4	11
2014 European election	25 May 2014	–	39.4	32.5	10.9	2.5	4.0	5.4	5.3	6.9
Infratest dimap	14–16 Jan 2014	1,000	40	32	13	4	5	3	3	8
2013 federal election	22 Sep 2013	–	41.1	33.1	8.8	4.2	5.0	3.7	4.1	8.0
2013 state election	20 Jan 2013	–	36.0	32.6	13.7	9.9	3.1	–	4.6	3.4

Results

Party		Constituency			Party list			Total seats	+/–
		Votes	%	Seats	Votes	%	Seats
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	1,508,830	39.6%	55	1,413,990	36.9%	0	55	+6
	Christian Democratic Union (CDU)	1,420,083	37.3%	32	1,287,191	33.6%	18	50	–4
	Alliance 90/The Greens (Grüne)	283,327	7.4%	0	334,130	8.7%	12	12	–8
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	226,554	5.9%	0	287,957	7.5%	11	11	–3
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	174,521	4.6%	0	235,863	6.2%	9	9	+9
	The Left (Linke)	170,660	4.5%	0	177,118	4.6%	0	0	–
	Animal Protection Party (Tierschutz)	–	–	0	27,108	0.7%	0	0	–
	Die PARTEI (PARTEI)	9,097	0.2%	0	22,578	0.6%	0	0	–
	Free Voters (FW)	11,348	0.3%	0	14,869	0.4%	0	0	–
	Pirate Party (Piraten)	2,350	0.1%	0	8,449	0.2%	0	0	–
	Basic Income Alliance (BFE)	–	–	0	5,125	0.1%	0	0	–
	German Centre (DM)	–	–	0	4,482	0.1%	0	0	–
	V-Partei3	–	–	0	4,151	0.1%	0	0	–
	Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)	735	0.0%	0	4,042	0.1%	0	0	–
	Liberal Conservative Reformers (LKR)	488	0.0%	0	950	0.0%	0	0	–
	The Grays (DG)	260	0.0%	0	–	–	0	0	–
	Independents	2,447	0.1%	0	–	–	0	0	–
Total		3,811,125	100.0%	87	3,828,003	100.0%	50	137	–
Valid votes		3,811,125	99.0%		3,828,003	99.5%
Invalid votes		37,892	1.0%		21,014	0.5%
Turnout		3,849,017	63.1%
Eligible voters		6,098,379
Source: Niedersächsische Landeswahlleiterin

Government formation

Due to AfD entering the Landtag and no party willing to form a coalition with them, neither the incumbent red-green coalition between the SPD and Greens nor the black-yellow opposition of the CDU and FDP secured a majority of seats in the election. Because the FDP ruled out the possibility of a traffic light coalition (between the SPD, FDP, and Greens) and the Greens ruled out a Jamaica coalition (between the CDU, Greens, and FDP),^[5] the SPD and CDU subsequently agreed to start negotiations to form a grand coalition.^[6]

On 16 November, the SPD and CDU agreed to form a government.^[7]

See also

• Germany portal

• 2013 Lower Saxony state election
• 2017 German federal election