2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Arizona, concurrently with the election of Arizona's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

2018 Arizona gubernatorial election

← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →
Turnout	64.85% 17.33pp [1]
Nominee Doug Ducey David Garcia Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,330,863 994,341 Percentage 56.00% 41.84%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Ducey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Garcia:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election Doug Ducey Republican Elected Governor Doug Ducey Republican

The primary was held on August 28.^[2] Despite considerably closer contests in other Arizona state elections, which included Democratic gains for U.S. Senate, Secretary of State, and Superintendent of Public Instruction, incumbent Governor Doug Ducey won a second term, with a slightly increased majority from his 2014 win and the largest margin of victory of any statewide candidate on the ballot. This was the first Arizona gubernatorial election since 1990 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent U.S. president. In addition, Ducey was the first person to receive 1 million votes in a gubernatorial election in the state.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Doug Ducey, incumbent governor^[3]

Eliminated in primary

• Ken Bennett, former secretary of state of Arizona^[4][5]
• Robert Weber (write-in)^[6]

Endorsements

Doug Ducey

Organizations

• Arizona Association of Realtors^[7]
• Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry^[8]
• Arizona Fraternal Order of Police^[9]
• Arizona Police Association^[10]
• Arizona State Troopers Association^[11]
• Chandler Chamber of Commerce^[12]
• Gilbert Chamber of Commerce^[13]
• Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce^[14]
• Flagstaff Chamber of Commerce^[15]
• Mesa Chamber of Commerce^[16]
• National Border Patrol Council^[17]
• National Federation of Independent Business^[18]
• Professional Fire Fighters of Arizona^[19]
• Tucson Metro Chamber^[20]

Newspapers

• Arizona Daily Star^[21]
• The Arizona Republic^[22]
• Casa Grande Dispatch^[23]
• The Daily Courier (Prescott, Arizona)^[24]
• Today's News-Herald (Lake Havasu City, Arizona)^[25]

Individuals

• John Doyle, Nogales mayor^[26]
• Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff^[27]
• Scott Mascher, Yavapai County Sheriff^[27]
• Cindy McCain, philanthropist and businesswoman^[28]
• Mark Napier, Pima County Sheriff^[27]
• Mike Pence, 48th Vice President of the United States^[29]
• Gerardo Sanchez, San Luis mayor^[26]
• Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States^[30]
• Robert Uribe, Douglas mayor^[26]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Doug Ducey	Ken Bennett	Undecided
Emerson College[31]	June 21–22, 2018	305	± 5.9%	44%	22%	35%

Results

Results by county:

  Ducey

•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

Republican primary results^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Doug Ducey (incumbent)	463,672	70.7
	Republican	Ken Bennett	191,775	29.3
	Republican	Robert Weber (write-in)	91	0.0
Total votes			655,538	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• David Garcia, Arizona State University professor and nominee for Superintendent of Public Instruction in 2014^[33][34]

Eliminated in primary

• Mirza Fareed "Fareed" Baig (write-in)^[6]
• Steve Farley, state senator^[35]
• Kelly Fryer, nonprofit executive and activist^[36]

Declined

• Terry Goddard, former Arizona Attorney General and nominee for governor in 2010 and 1990^[37]
• Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Representative (running for U.S. Senate)^[38]
• Greg Stanton, Mayor of Phoenix (running for AZ-09)^[39][40]

Endorsements

David Garcia

Labor unions

• American Federation of Government Employees^[41]
• Arizona Building and Construction Trades Council^[42]
• Arizona Education Association^[43]
• Communications Workers of America^[44]

Organizations

• Democracy for America^[45]
• Latino Victory Fund^[46]
• People for the American Way^[47]
• Planned Parenthood Advocates of Arizona^[48]
• Progressive Change Campaign Committee^[49]
• Sierra Club^[50]
• VoteVets.org^[51]
• Working Families Party^[52]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Farley	Kelly Fryer	David Garcia	Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[53]	August 14–15, 2018	589	± 4.0%	25%	7%	40%	28%
Data Orbital[54]	June 25–27, 2018	550	± 4.2%	11%	6%	33%	49%
Emerson College[55]	June 21–22, 2018	260	± 6.2%	13%	8%	30%	48%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Garcia)[56]	May 21–23, 2018	400	± 5.0%	11%	11%	32%	46%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)[57]	January 5–7, 2018	446	–	22%	–	43%	36%

Results

Results by county:

  Garcia

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

  Farley

•   40–50%

Democratic primary results^[32]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	David Garcia	255,555	50.6
	Democratic	Steve Farley	163,072	32.3
	Democratic	Kelly Fryer	86,810	17.2
	Democratic	Mirza Fareed Baig (write-in)	44	0.0
Total votes			505,481	100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Disqualified

• Jeff Funicello, activist^[58]
• Barry Hess (write-in)^[6]
• Kevin McCormick,^[6] candidate for president in 2016^[59][60]

Endorsements

Kevin McCormick

Individuals

• William Weld, former governor of Massachusetts^[61]

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Angel Torres^[62] (write-in)^[6]

Eliminated in primary

• Noah Dyer^[62] (write-in)^[6]

Results

Results by county:

  Torres

•   90-100%
•   80–90%
•   70–80%
•   60–70%

  Torres/Dyer tie

•   50-60%

No votes

•   

Green primary results^[63]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Angel Torres (write-in)	357	76.3
	Green	Noah Dyer (write-in)	111	23.7
Total votes			468	100.0

Independents

Candidates

Disqualified

• Noah Dyer, author, businessman and educator^[64][65]
• Christian R. Komor, author, psychologist, climate scientist^[66]

Declined

• Tim Jeffries, former director of the Arizona Department of Economic Security^[67]

General election

Debates

Dates	Location	Ducey	Garcia	Link
September 24, 2018	Tempe, Arizona	Participant	Participant	Full debate[68] – YouTube
September 25, 2018	Tucson, Arizona	Participant	Participant	Full debate[69] – C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[70]	Likely R	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[71]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[72]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[73]	Likely R	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[74]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[75]	Likely R	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[76]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Fox News[77][a]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Politico[78]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Governing[79]	Lean R	November 5, 2018

Notes

1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Doug Ducey (R)	David Garcia (D)	Angel Torres (G)	Other	Undecided
HarrisX[80]	November 3–5, 2018	600	± 4.0%	53%	39%	–	–	–
HarrisX[81]	November 2–4, 2018	600	± 4.0%	55%	37%	–	–	–
Emerson College[82]	November 1–3, 2018	758	± 3.7%	55%	40%	–	–	5%
HarrisX[83]	November 1–3, 2018	600	± 4.0%	57%	36%	–	–	–
Research Co.[84]	November 1–3, 2018	450	± 4.6%	54%	39%	–	2%	5%
HarrisX[85]	October 31 – November 2, 2018	600	± 4.0%	56%	37%	–	–	–
Gravis Marketing[86]	October 24 – November 2, 2018	1,165	± 2.9%	53%	40%	–	–	7%
HarrisX[87]	October 30 – November 1, 2018	600	± 4.0%	57%	36%	–	–	–
HarrisX[88]	October 29–31, 2018	600	± 4.0%	54%	37%	–	–	–
Vox Populi Polling[89]	October 27–30, 2018	677	± 3.7%	54%	46%	–	–	–
HarrisX[90]	October 24–30, 2018	1,400	± 2.6%	57%	35%	–	–	–
Fox News[91]	October 27–29, 2018	643 LV	± 3.5%	55%	37%	–	2%	5%
		710 RV	± 3.5%	54%	35%	–	3%	7%
CNN/SSRS[92]	October 24–29, 2018	702 LV	± 4.4%	52%	45%	–	0%	1%
		867 RV	± 4.0%	52%	43%	–	0%	3%
HighGround Public Affairs[93]	October 26–28, 2018	400	± 4.9%	55%	35%	4%	–	7%
Marist College[94]	October 23–27, 2018	506 LV	± 5.4%	54%	40%	5%	<1%	2%
				55%	42%	–	1%	1%
		793 RV	± 4.4%	54%	38%	5%	<1%	3%
				55%	41%	–	1%	3%
YouGov[95]	October 23–26, 2018	972	± 4.1%	52%	41%	–	1%	5%
Ipsos[96]	October 17–26, 2018	799	± 4.0%	57%	37%	–	2%	3%
OH Predictive Insights[97]	October 22–23, 2018	600	± 4.0%	57%	39%	1%	–	3%
Change Research (D-Garcia)[98]	October 9–10, 2018	783	–	47%	40%	–	–	11%
OH Predictive Insights[99]	October 3, 2018	600	± 4.0%	54%	37%	2%	–	7%
Data Orbital[100]	October 1–3, 2018	550	± 4.2%	52%	34%	2%	2%	9%
Fox News[101]	September 29 – October 2, 2018	716 LV	± 3.5%	55%	37%	–	1%	7%
		806 RV	± 3.5%	54%	35%	–	2%	9%
Vox Populi Polling[102]	September 29 – October 1, 2018	702	± 3.5%	57%	43%	–	–	–
Suffolk University[103]	September 27–30, 2018	500	± 4.4%	50%	38%	2%	0%	10%
Latino Decisions[104]	September 10–25, 2018	463 LV	–	45%	40%	–	–	15%
		610 RV	–	41%	37%	–	–	19%
Emerson College[105]	September 19–21, 2018	650	± 4.4%	42%	38%	–	6%	14%
Marist College[106]	September 16–20, 2018	564 LV	± 4.7%	49%	39%	6%	<1%	6%
				51%	43%	–	<1%	5%
		763 RV	± 4.2%	48%	37%	7%	<1%	7%
				51%	42%	–	1%	6%
CNN/SSRS[107]	September 11–15, 2018	761 LV	± 4.3%	49%	46%	–	0%	2%
		854 RV	± 4.1%	48%	45%	–	1%	4%
Ipsos[108]	September 5–14, 2018	1,016	± 4.0%	51%	39%	–	4%	7%
TargetSmart (D-ProgressNow AZ)[109]	September 8–13, 2018	800	± 4.0%	49%	48%	–	0%	3%
Fox News[110]	September 8–11, 2018	710 LV	± 3.5%	51%	40%	–	1%	8%
		801 RV	± 3.5%	49%	39%	–	1%	10%
Gravis Marketing[111]	September 5–7, 2018	882	± 3.3%	48%	44%	–	–	9%
Data Orbital[112]	September 4–6, 2018	550	± 4.2%	49%	41%	–	2%[113]	8%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)[114]	August 30–31, 2018	554	± 4.2%	44%	43%	–	–	13%
Gravis Marketing[115]	June 27 – July 2, 2018	925	± 3.2%	41%	42%	–	–	17%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)[57]	January 5–7, 2018	735	± 4.0%	42%	43%	–	–	15%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)[116]	June 7–8, 2017	1,020	± 3.1%	42%	44%	–	–	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Doug Ducey (R)	Steve Farley (D)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing[115]	June 27 – July 2, 2018	925	± 3.2%	42%	39%	19%
GQR Research (D-Farley)[117]	February 23 – March 5, 2018	500	± 4.4%	49%	44%	7%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)[57]	January 5–7, 2018	735	± 4.0%	42%	39%	19%
Public Policy Polling (D-Garcia)[116]	June 7–8, 2017	1,020	± 3.1%	42%	40%	18%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Doug Ducey (R)	Generic Democrat	Undecided
Morning Consult[118]	June 29 – July 9, 2018	1,641	± 2.0%	34%	41%	25%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Doug Ducey (R)	Kyrsten Sinema (D)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling[119]	May 13–15, 2016	896	± 3.3%	43%	36%	21%

Hypothetical polling

with Steve Farley

with generic Democrat

with Kyrsten Sinema

Results

Swing by county

Legend

•   Democratic—+5-10%
•   Democratic—+<5%
•   Republican—+<5%
•   Republican—+5-10%
•   Republican—+10-15%
•   Republican—+15-20%
•   Republican—+20-25%

Arizona gubernatorial election, 2018^[120]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Doug Ducey (incumbent)	1,330,863	56.00%	+2.56%
	Democratic	David Garcia	994,341	41.84%	+0.22%
	Green	Angel Torres	50,962	2.14%	N/A
	Write-in		275	0.01%	-0.10%
Total votes			2,376,441	100.0%	N/A
	Republican hold

By county

County	David Garcia Democratic		Doug Ducey Republican		Angel Torres Green		Margin		Total votes
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Apache	14,955	59.72%	9,175	36.64%	912	3.64%	5,780	23.08%	25,042
Cochise	14,576	32.10%	29,638	65.26%	1,201	2.64%	-15,062	-33.17%	45,415
Coconino	30,712	55.91%	22,778	41.47%	1,440	2.62%	7,934	14.44%	54,930
Gila	5,623	27.38%	14,444	70.34%	468	2.28%	-8,821	-42.96%	20,535
Graham	2,569	24.19%	7,776	73.21%	276	2.60%	-5,207	-49.03%	10,621
Greenlee	832	32.64%	1,637	64.22%	80	3.14%	-805	-31.58%	2,549
La Paz	1,122	21.99%	3,852	75.49%	129	2.53%	-2,730	-53.50%	5,103
Maricopa	603,055	42.09%	800,210	55.85%	29,495	2.06%	-197,155	-13.76%	1,432,760
Mohave	13,580	18.97%	56,682	79.18%	1,325	1.85%	-43,102	-60.21%	71,587
Navajo	13,646	37.30%	21,880	59.81%	1,055	2.88%	-8,234	-22.51%	36,581
Pima	195,227	50.25%	184,621	47.52%	8,678	2.23%	10,606	2.73%	388,526
Pinal	38,801	33.21%	75,272	64.42%	2,767	2.37%	-36,471	-31.21%	116,840
Santa Cruz	8,407	62.46%	4,792	35.60%	261	1.94%	3,615	26.86%	13,460
Yavapai	32,159	29.68%	74,148	68.44%	2,029	1.87%	-41,989	-38.76%	108,336
Yuma	19,077	43.47%	23,958	54.60%	846	1.93%	-4,881	-11.12%%	43,881
Total	994,341	41.8%	1,330,863	56.0%	50,962	2.1%	336,522	14.2%	2,376,166

By congressional district

Ducey won six of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats.^[121]

District	David Garcia Democratic	Doug Ducey Republican	Representative
1st	43%	54%	Tom O'Halleran
2nd	46%	52%	Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd	58%	39%	Raúl Grijalva
4th	25%	73%	Paul Gosar
5th	34%	64%	Andy Biggs
6th	38%	60%	David Schweikert
7th	67%	30%	Ruben Gallego
8th	33%	65%	Debbie Lesko
9th	52%	45%	Greg Stanton

Voter demographics

Edison Research exit poll

Demographic subgroup	Garcia	Ducey	No answer	% of voters
Gender
Men	40	58	2	47
Women	43	55	2	53
Age
18–24 years old	N/A	N/A	N/A	5
25–29 years old	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
30–39 years old	45	52	3	17
40–49 years old	43	55	2	16
50–64 years old	37	61	2	29
65 and older	40	59	1	29
Race
White	37	62	1	75
Black	N/A	N/A	N/A	2
Latino	56	44	N/A	19
Asian	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Other	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Race and gender
White men	34	64	2	34
White women	39	60	1	41
Black men	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Black women	N/A	N/A	N/A	1
Latino men	53	46	1	9
Latina women	58	42	N/A	10
Others	N/A	N/A	N/A	4
Education
High school or less	32	67	1	25
Some college education	40	58	2	28
Associate degree	38	59	3	10
Bachelor's degree	46	51	3	23
Advanced degree	59	40	1	14
Education and race
White college graduates	48	49	3	27
White no college degree	30	69	1	38
Non-white college graduates	51	47	2	9
Non-white no college degree	61	38	1	16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees	50	49	1	15
White women without college degrees	33	66	1	26
White men with college degrees	46	49	5	12
White men without college degrees	28	72	N/A	21
Non-whites	58	40	2	25
Military service
Veteran	33	65	2	14
Non-veteran	45	54	1	86
Income
Under $30,000	36	62	2	15
$30,000-$49,999	54	45	1	19
$50,000-$99,999	46	52	2	33
$100,000-$199,999	31	67	2	24
Over $200,000	28	72	N/A	9
Party ID
Democrats	85	14	1	31
Republicans	5	95	N/A	38
Independents	45	52	3	31
Party by gender
Democratic men	77	20	3	14
Democratic women	91	9	N/A	17
Republican men	5	95	N/A	15
Republican women	4	96	N/A	23
Independent men	42	56	2	18
Independent women	48	47	5	13
Ideology
Liberals	83	16	1	22
Moderates	57	41	2	38
Conservatives	4	95	1	40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes	51	45	4	15
No	41	58	1	85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care	64	33	3	42
Immigration	8	91	1	31
Economy	38	60	2	18
Gun policy	N/A	N/A	N/A	7
Area type
Urban	52	46	2	43
Suburban	34	64	2	51
Rural	N/A	N/A	N/A	5
Source: CNN[122]