2018 Braddon by-election

A by-election for the Australian House of Representatives seat of Braddon took place on Saturday 28 July 2018, following the resignation of incumbent Labor MP Justine Keay.^[1]

2018 Braddon by-election

← 2016 28 July 2018 (2018-07-28) 2019 →
The Division of Braddon (Tas) in the House of Representatives
Registered	73,670
Turnout	90.38% 3.71
First party Second party Third party   IND Candidate Justine Keay Brett Whiteley Craig Garland Party Labor Liberal Independent First preference vote 23,218 24,645 6,633 Percentage 36.98% 39.26% 10.57% Swing 3.07 2.24 10.57 TPP 52.31% 47.69% TPP swing 0.11 0.11
MP before election Justine Keay Labor Elected MP Justine Keay Labor

In early counting, within an hour of the close of polls, the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's psephologist Antony Green's electoral computer had predicted Labor to retain the electorate.^[2]

The by-election occurred on the same day as four other by-elections for the House of Representatives, colloquially known as Super Saturday.

Background

Due to the High Court ruling against Senator Katy Gallagher on 9 May 2018 as part of the ongoing parliamentary eligibility crisis, Keay and three other MPs in the same situation announced their parliamentary resignations later that day,^[1] while the Perth incumbent resigned for family reasons.^[3] The Speaker announced on 24 May 2018 that he had scheduled the by-elections to occur on 28 July 2018. Popularly labelled "Super Saturday", the occurrence of five simultaneous federal by-elections is unprecedented in Australian political history.^[4] The others are:

• 2018 Fremantle by-election
• 2018 Longman by-election
• 2018 Mayo by-election
• 2018 Perth by-election

A redistribution of the Tasmanian federal electoral divisions was completed in 2017, however by-elections are conducted under existing boundaries, as redistributed boundaries do not come into effect until the subsequent federal election.^[5][6]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the by-election are:^[7]

• Thursday, 10 May 2018 – Speaker acceptance of resignation
• Friday, 15 June 2018 – Issue of writ
• Friday, 22 June 2018 – Close of electoral rolls (8pm)
• Thursday, 5 July 2018 – Close of nominations (12 noon)
• Friday, 6 July 2018 – Declaration of nominations (12 noon)
• Tuesday, 10 July 2018 – Start of early voting
• Saturday, 28 July 2018 – Polling day (8am to 6pm)
• Friday, 10 August 2018 – Last day for receipt of postal votes
• Sunday, 23 September 2018 – Last day for return of writs

Candidates

Burnie City Council polling booth

Candidates (8) in ballot paper order[8]
Party		Candidate	Background
	Greens	Jarrod Edwards	Indigenous land management supervisor.[9]
	SFF	Brett Neal	Farmer.[10]
	Independent	Donna Gibbons	Registered nurse and small business owner.[8]
	Liberal Democrats	Joshua Boag	Sheetmetal fabricator. Contested Braddon at the 2016 federal election.[8]
	Liberal	Brett Whiteley	One-term MP for Braddon elected at the 2013 federal election.[11]
	Independent	Craig Garland	Fisherman. Contested Braddon at the 2018 state election.[12]
	People	Bruno Strangio	Has managed numerous real estate and construction enterprises.[8]
	Labor	Justine Keay	Previous MP for Braddon elected at the 2016 federal election.[13]

Polling

Braddon by-election polling

Date	Firm	Commissioned by	Sample	MoE	Primary vote					TPP vote
					ALP	LIB	GRN	OTH		ALP	LIB
24−26 July 2018	Newspoll	The Australian[14]	1002	±3.1%	40%	43%	5%	12%		51%	49%
19 July 2018	ReachTEL	Aus. Forest Products Assoc.[15][16]	810	±3.4%	36.0%	42.7%	7.0%	14.3%		52%	48%
2 June 2018	ReachTEL	Sky News[17]	>800	±3.4%	33%	47%	6%	14%		46%	54%
2016 election					40.0%	41.5%	6.7%	11.7%		52.2%	47.8%

Results

Further information: Electoral results for the Division of Braddon

2018 Braddon by-election^[18][19]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Liberal	Brett Whiteley	24,645	39.26	−2.24
	Labor	Justine Keay	23,218	36.98	−3.07
	Independent	Craig Garland	6,633	10.57	+10.57
	Shooters, Fishers, Farmers	Brett Neal	2,984	4.75	+4.75
	Greens	Jarrod Edwards	2,518	4.01	−2.73
	Independent	Donna Gibbons	1,533	2.44	+2.44
	Liberal Democrats	Joshua Boag	828	1.32	−0.81
	People's Party	Bruno Strangio	421	0.67	0.67
Total formal votes			62,780	94.29	−0.48
Informal votes			3,804	5.71	+0.48
Turnout			66,584	90.38	−3.71
Two-party-preferred result
	Labor	Justine Keay	32,842	52.31	+0.11
	Liberal	Brett Whiteley	29,938	47.69	−0.11
	Labor hold		Swing	+0.11

Diagram of preference flows at the Braddon by-election

See also

• July 2018 Australian federal by-elections
• List of Australian federal by-elections
• 2017–18 Australian parliamentary eligibility crisis