2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election

For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Hawaii and lieutenant governor of Hawaii.

2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election

← 2014 November 6, 2018 2022 →

Nominee David Ige Andria Tupola Party Democratic Republican Running mate Josh Green Marissa Kerns Popular vote 244,934 131,719 Percentage 62.67% 33.70%

County results Congressional district results Precinct results Ige:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90% Tupola:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80% Tie:      40–50%      No votes

Governor before election David Ige Democratic Elected Governor David Ige Democratic

After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality.

Republicans Andria Tupola and Marissa Kerns headed one of two 2018 major-party gubernatorial tickets that included two women. The other such ticket had Idaho's 2018 Democratic nominees for governor and lieutenant governor, Paulette Jordan and Kristin Collum.^[1] This was Hawaii's only gubernatorial election since 1994 without Linda Lingle or Duke Aiona as the Republican nominee, as well as the first since the 1990 election in which the winner was of a different party than the incumbent president. This election was the only time since 1998 that an incumbent Democratic governor of Hawaii was re-elected.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Ernest Caravalho, Democratic Party of Hawaii chair, House District 29^[2]
• Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[3][4][5]
• David Ige, incumbent governor^[3][6]
• Wendell Kaehuaea, security guard and perennial candidate^[7]
• Van Tanabe

Withdrew

• Clayton Hee, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014^[8][9]

Debates

Dates	Location	Ige	Hanabusa	Link
July 6, 2018	Honolulu, Hawaii	Participant	Participant	Full debate – YouTube

Endorsements

Colleen Hanabusa

Individuals

• Ben Cayetano, former governor of Hawai'i^[10]
• Tulsi Gabbard, congresswoman for HI-2^[11]
• Shan Tsutsui, former lieutenant governor of Hawai'i^[12]

Organizations

• Hawaii Building and Construction Trades Council^[13]
• Hawaii Fire Fighters Association^[13]
• Hawaii Government Employees Association^[13]
• Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters^[13]
• Hawaii State AFL-CIO^[13]
• International Longshore and Warehouse Union^[13]
• International Union of Operating Engineers^[13]
• International Union of Painters and Associated Trades^[13]
• Laborers' International Union of North America^[13]
• Seafarers International Union^[13]
• State of Hawaii Organization of Police Officers^[13]
• University of Hawaii Professional Assembly^[13]

David Ige

Individuals

• Harry Kim, mayor of Hawai'i County^[10]

Organizations

• Hawaii Association of Public Accountants^[13]
• Hawaii State Teachers Association^[13]
• Ironworkers Union^[13]
• Plasterers & Cement Masons Union^[13]
• Unite Here Local 5^[13]
• United Public Workers^[13]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Ige	Colleen Hanabusa	Clayton Hee	Undecided
Merriman River Group[14]	July 19–21, 2018	871	± 3.3%	43%	34%	–	18%
Mason-Dixon[15]	July 6–11, 2018	494	± 4.5%	44%	40%	–	16%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)[16]	June 21 – July 6, 2018	518	± 4.4%	31%	57%	–	11%
QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)[17]	April 21 – May 7, 2018	888	± 3.4%	23%	52%	6%	19%
Merriman River Group[18]	May 3–5, 2018	707	± 3.7%	31%	37%	11%	16%
Mason-Dixon[19]	March 13–18, 2018	498	± 4.5%	27%	47%	11%	15%

Results

Results by county:

  Ige—50–60%

  Ige—40–50%

  Hanabusa—40–50%

  No data

Democratic primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	David Ige (incumbent)	124,572	51.4
	Democratic	Colleen Hanabusa	107,631	44.4
	Democratic	Ernest Caravalho	5,662	2.3
	Democratic	Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a	2,298	0.9
	Democratic	Richard Kim	1,576	0.6
	Democratic	Van Tanabe	775	0.3
Total votes			242,514	100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

• Bernard Carvalho, mayor of Kauai County^[21]
• Will Espero, State Senate vice president and candidate for HI-01 in 2014^[22]
• Josh Green, state senator^[4][23][22]
• Kim Coco Iwamoto, former state board of education member^[24]
• Jill Tokuda, state senator^[3]

Withdrew

• Alan Arakawa, mayor of Maui County^[25] (running for Maui County Council)^[26]

Endorsements

Kim Coco Iwamoto

Organizations

• UNITE Here Local 5^[27]

Individuals

• Daniel Foley, attorney in Baehr v. Miike and retired judge of the Hawaii Intermediate Court of Appeals^[28]

Jill Tokuda

Organizations

• University of Hawaii Professional Assembly^[29]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bernard Carvalho	Will Espero	Josh Green	Kim Coco Iwamoto	Jill Tokuda	Undecided
Merriman River Group[30]	July 19–21, 2018	871	± 3.3%	13%	5%	31%	10%	17%	26%
Mason-Dixon[15]	July 6–11, 2018	494	± 4.5%	14%	6%	34%	10%	14%	22%
Merriman River Group[31]	May 3–5, 2018	707	± 3.7%	19%	8%	16%	14%	11%	32%
Mason-Dixon[19]	March 13–18, 2018	498	± 4.5%	14%	9%	19%	5%	12%	41%

Results

Results by county:

  Green—50–60%

  Green—30–40%

  Tokuda—30–40%

  Carvalho—40–50%

  No data

Democratic primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Josh Green	74,845	31.4
	Democratic	Jill Tokuda	68,124	28.6
	Democratic	Bernard Carvalho	45,825	19.2
	Democratic	Kim Coco Iwamoto	34,243	14.3
	Democratic	Will Espero	15,463	6.5
Total votes			238,500	100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• John Carroll, former state representative, and former state senator^[7][32]
• Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, former assistant superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel^[33]
• Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives^[34][32]

Withdrew

• Bob McDermott, state representative and nominee for HI-02 in 2002^[35][36]

Endorsements

Andria Tupola

Newspapers

• Maui Time^[37]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Carroll	Raymond L'Heureux	Andria Tupola	Undecided
Merriman River Group[38]	July 19–21, 2018	219	± 6.6%	22%	4%	39%	22%
Mason-Dixon[39]	July 6–11, 2018	143	± 8.4%	28%	8%	41%	23%
Mason-Dixon[19]	March 13–18, 2018	134	± 8.6%	40%	–	28%	32%

Results

Results by county:

  Tupola—50–60%

  Tupola—40–50%

  No data

Republican primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Andria Tupola	17,297	55.5
	Republican	John Carroll	10,974	35.2
	Republican	Ray L'Heureux	2,885	9.3
Total votes			31,156	100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

• Marissa Kerns
• Steve Lipscomb
• Jeremy Low

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Marissa Kerns	Jeremy Low	Undecided
Merriman River Group[40]	July 19–21, 2018	219	± 6.6%	26%	20%	54%

Results

Results by county:

  Kerns—30–40%

  Lipscomb—30–40%

  No data

Republican primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Marissa Dipasupil Kerns	9,758	35.4
	Republican	Steve Lipscomb	9,543	34.7
	Republican	Jeremy Low	8,232	29.9
Total votes			27,533	100.0

Green primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Jim Brewer

Results

Results by county:

  Brewer—100%

  No data

Green primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Jim Brewer	454	100.0
Total votes			454	100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

• Renee Ing

Results

Results by county:

  Ing—100%

  No data

Green primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Green	Renee Ing	444	100.0
Total votes			444	100.0

Nonpartisan primary

Governor

Candidates

Declared

• Selina Blackwell
• Link El
• Terrence Teruya

Results

Results by county:

  Teruya—50–60%

  Blackwell—40–50%

  Blackwell—50–60%

  No data

Nonpartisan primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Nonpartisan	Terrence Teruya	543	47.7
	Nonpartisan	Selina Blackwell	497	43.7
	Nonpartisan	Link El	98	8.6
Total votes			1,138	100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Declared

• Ernest Magaoay
• Paul Robotti

Results

Results by county:

  Robotti—50–60%

  Magaoay—50–60%

  No data

Nonpartisan primary results^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Nonpartisan	Paul Robotti	536	50.6
	Nonpartisan	Ernest Magaoay	523	49.4
Total votes			1,059	100.0

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[41]	Safe D	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[42]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[43]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[44]	Safe D	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[45]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[46]	Safe D	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[47]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
Fox News[48][a]	Likely D	November 5, 2018
Politico[49]	Safe D	November 5, 2018
Governing[50]	Safe D	November 5, 2018

Notes

1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

Dates	Location	Ige	Tupola	Link
October 29, 2018	Honolulu, Hawaii	Participant	Participant	Full debate[51] – C-SPAN

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Ige (D)	Andria Tupola (R)	Undecided
Merriman River Group[52]	October 8–12, 2018	961	± 4.3%	52%	31%	11%
Mason-Dixon[53]	July 6–11, 2018	800	± 3.5%	57%	34%	9%
Mason-Dixon[19]	March 13–18, 2018	800	± 3.5%	51%	24%	25%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Ige (D)	John Carroll (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[53]	July 6–11, 2018	800	± 3.5%	62%	23%	15%
Mason-Dixon[19]	March 13–18, 2018	800	± 3.5%	52%	27%	21%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	David Ige (D)	Raymond L'Heureux (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[53]	July 6–11, 2018	800	± 3.5%	67%	20%	13%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Colleen Hanabusa (D)	John Carroll (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[53]	July 6–11, 2018	800	± 3.5%	51%	31%	18%
Mason-Dixon[19]	March 13–18, 2018	800	± 3.5%	57%	31%	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Colleen Hanabusa (D)	Andria Tupola (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[53]	July 6–11, 2018	800	± 3.5%	48%	35%	17%
Mason-Dixon[19]	March 13–18, 2018	800	± 3.5%	56%	28%	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Colleen Hanabusa (D)	Raymond L'Heureux (R)	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[53]	July 6–11, 2018	800	± 3.5%	58%	26%	16%

Hypothetical polling

with David Ige and John Carroll

with David Ige and Raymond L'Heureux

with Colleen Hanabusa and John Carroll

with Colleen Hanabusa and Andria Tupola

with Colleen Hanabusa and Raymond L'Heureux

Results

Hawaii gubernatorial election, 2018^[54]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	David Ige (incumbent)	244,934	62.67%	13.22
	Republican	Andria Tupola	131,719	33.70%	3.38
	Green	Jim Brewer	10,123	2.59%	N/A
	Nonpartisan	Terrence Teruya	4,067	1.04%	N/A
Total votes			390,843	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

By congressional district

Ige won both congressional districts.^[55]

District	Ige	Tupola	Representative
1st	64%	33%	Colleen Hanabusa (117th Congress)
			Ed Case (118th Congress)
2nd	61%	35%	Tulsi Gabbard