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2018 United States Senate election in Nevada

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2018 United States Senate election in Nevada
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Nevada took place November 6, 2018, to elect one of two U.S. senators from Nevada. Incumbent Republican senator Dean Heller lost re-election to a second full term, being defeated by Democratic nominee Jacky Rosen.

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Heller had considered a bid for Nevada governor but instead announced he would run for reelection to a second full term. This was the only Republican-held U.S. Senate seat up for election in 2018 in a state Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election, and one of two Democratic flips in the 2018 U.S. Senate elections.[1][2] Rosen's victory marked the first time that Nevada had been represented by two women in the United States Senate, and the first time a Democrat had won the Class 1 Senate seat in Nevada since 1994 (as well as the first time both Senate seats were held by Democrats since 2001). Heller was the only Republican incumbent to lose a Senate seat in 2018; he later unsuccessfully ran in the 2022 Republican primary for Governor of Nevada.

The candidate filing deadline was March 16, 2018, and the primary election was held on June 12.[3]

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Background

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Nevada is a swing state that once leaned slightly rightward, having voted for George W. Bush twice. But since 2008 it has seen the opposite trend, giving Barack Obama a seven-point victory in 2012 while simultaneously electing Heller to the Senate by one point. Obama also carried Nevada in 2008 by a 12.5% margin. In 2016, the state shifted rightward again, still voting for Hillary Clinton, but only by two points, although Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto managed to win the seat of retiring Democratic Senate leader Harry Reid. Because of the consistent swing nature of the state, many cited Heller as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican in the U.S. Senate up for reelection in 2018, a year with few Republicans in that position; President Donald Trump even warned that if Heller failed to vote to pass the GOP Health care bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, he could well lose his seat in the next election.[4][5]

At the end of September 2018, the Brett Kavanaugh Supreme Court nomination became a major element of the campaign. Heller made noncommittal remarks[6] and a significant campaign was deployed to criticize his support for Kavanaugh.[7][8]

Rosen is only the 37th sitting House freshman to win a Senate election, the first female representative to do so, and the first one-term House Democrat to become a senator-elect since James Abourezk in 1972.[9]

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Republican primary

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Candidates

Declared

  • Sherry Brooks
  • Sarah Gazala, teacher[10]
  • Vic Harrell
  • Tom Heck
  • Dean Heller, incumbent U.S. Senator[11]

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Dean Heller

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Governors

State officials

State senators

State assembly members

Local officials

Individuals

Groups

Danny Tarkanian (withdrew)

Federal officials

Governors

Polling

Hypothetical polling

with Danny Tarkanian

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

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Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Heller—70–80%
  •   Heller—60–70%
  •   Heller—50–60%
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Democratic primary

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Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Jacky Rosen

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Labor unions

Organizations

Websites and newspapers

Results

Thumb
Results by county:
Map legend
  •   Rosen—80–90%
  •   Rosen—70–80%
  •   Rosen—60–70%
  •   Rosen—50–60%
  •   Rosen—30–40%
  •   Rosen/Knight tie—<30%
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Independents

Candidates

Declared

  • Kamau Bakari[79]
  • Barry Michaels, businessman, convicted felon and perennial candidate[80]

General election

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Debates

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Endorsements

Jacky Rosen (D)

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Websites and newspapers

Dean Heller (R)

Federal officials

U.S. Senators

Governors

State officials

State senators

State assembly members

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018, Candidate (party) ...

Polling

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Hypothetical polling
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with Dina Titus

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Results

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Heller carried 15 of Nevada's 17 county-level jurisdictions, but Rosen carried the two largest, Clark (home to Las Vegas) and Washoe (home to Reno). She won Clark County by over 92,000 votes, almost double her statewide margin of over 48,900 votes.[150]

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By congressional district

Rosen won three of four congressional districts.[151]

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Notes

  1. Archived December 18, 2018, at the Wayback Machine

References

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