2019 Manitoba general election

The 2019 Manitoba general election was held on September 10, 2019, to elect the 57 members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.^[1]

2019 Manitoba general election

← 2016 September 10, 2019 2023 →
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	55.04%
First party Second party   Leader Brian Pallister Wab Kinew Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since July 30, 2012 September 16, 2017 Leader's seat Fort Whyte Fort Rouge Last election 40 seats, 53.01% 14 seats, 25.73% Seats before 38 12 Seats won 36 18 Seat change 2 6 Popular vote 222,569 150,016 Percentage 46.81% 31.55% Swing 6.27% 5.77%   Third party Fourth party   Leader Dougald Lamont James Beddome Party Liberal Green Leader since October 21, 2017 November 15, 2014 Leader's seat St. Boniface ran in Fort Rouge (lost) Last election 3 seats, 14.46% 0 seats, 5.07% Seats before 4 0 Seats won 3 0 Seat change 1 Popular vote 69,497 30,295 Percentage 14.62% 6.37% Swing 0.22% 1.30%
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding. Riding names are listed to the right.
Premier before election Brian Pallister Progressive Conservative Premier after election Brian Pallister Progressive Conservative

The incumbent Progressive Conservatives, led by Premier Brian Pallister, were re-elected to a second majority government with a loss of two seats. The NDP, led by Wab Kinew, gained six seats and retained their position as the official opposition. The Liberals, led by Dougald Lamont, won the remaining three seats.

Background

Under Manitoba's Elections Act, a general election must be held no later than the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year following the previous election.^[2] As the previous election was held in 2016, the latest possible date for the election was October 6, 2020, or if that would have overlapped with a federal election period, the latest possible date would be April 20, 2021.^[3]

However, incumbent Premier Brian Pallister announced instead in June 2019 that he would seek to hold the election over a year early, on September 10, 2019, in order to seek "a new mandate to keep moving Manitoba forward." Pallister visited Lieutenant Governor Janice Filmon on August 12 to officially drop the writ and begin the campaign period.^[4]

It had been speculated that Pallister would call an early election in order to take advantage of a large lead in opinion polls, and to get the vote out of the way before new and potentially unpopular budget cuts took effect. A poll taken by the Winnipeg Free Press found that while most respondents disagreed with the early election and agreed that Pallister had moved up the date for partisan reasons, such sentiments were unlikely to imperil Pallister's re-election.^[5]

Reorganization of electoral divisions

In 2006, the Electoral Divisions Act was amended to provide for the creation of a permanent commission to determine any necessary redistribution of seats in the Legislative Assembly by the end of 2008, and then every tenth year thereafter.^[6] Its final report would take effect upon the dissolution of the relevant Legislature. Following a series of hearings and an interim report,^[7] the commission's final report was issued in December 2018, which provided for the following changes:^[8]

Abolished ridings	New ridings
New ridings
	Lagimodière[a 1]
	McPhillips[a 2]
	Red River North[a 3]
	Springfield-Ritchot[a 4]
	Waverley[a 5]
Abolished ridings
Morris[a 6]
St. Paul
Merger of ridings
Gimli Interlake	Interlake-Gimli
Seine River St. Norbert	Seine River
Kildonan River East	Kildonan-River East
Renaming of ridings
Arthur-Virden	Turtle Mountain
Charleswood	Roblin
Emerson	Borderland
Fort Garry-Riverview	Fort Garry
Logan	Union Station
Minto	Notre Dame
The Pas	The Pas-Kameesak

1. from part of Southdale and small parts of Radisson, St. Vital, and Seine River
2. from parts of St. Paul, The Maples, and Kildonan
3. from parts of Selkirk, St. Paul, and a small part of Lac du Bonnet
4. from parts of St. Paul, La Verendrye, Dawson Trail, and Morris
5. from parts of St. Norbert and Fort Whyte
6. parts going to Midland, La Verendrye and Springfield-Ritchot

Timeline

2016

• May 3: Government is sworn in
• May 7: Greg Selinger resigns as leader and Flor Marcelino becomes interim Leader of the New Democratic Party of Manitoba.
• September 24: Rana Bokhari resigns as Leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.
• October 21: Judy Klassen becomes interim Leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.

2017

• January 9: Kevin Chief resigns as NDP member of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba for Point Douglas, causing a by-election.
• January 31: NDP MLA Mohinder Saran suspended from the caucus due to sexual harassment allegations.
• June 13: Bernadette Smith elected member of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba for Point Douglas holding the seat for the NDP with a reduced majority.
• June 13: Judy Klassen resigns as interim leader to run for Leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party. Paul Brault becomes acting Leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.
• June 30: Progressive Conservative MLA Steven Fletcher expelled from the caucus after breaking with the party on multiple issues.
• September 16: Wab Kinew elected Leader of the New Democratic Party of Manitoba.
• October 21: Dougald Lamont elected Leader of the Manitoba Liberal Party.

2018

• March 7: Greg Selinger resigns as NDP member of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba for St. Boniface, causing a by-election.
• March 21: NDP MLA for Wolseley, Rob Altemeyer, announces that he will not seek re-election.^[9]
• July 17: Liberal leader Dougald Lamont elected member of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba for St. Boniface, gaining the seat from the NDP and winning official party status for the Liberals.
• August 13: Steven Fletcher joins the Manitoba Party.^[10]
• September 11: Steven Fletcher becomes Leader of the Manitoba Party.
• October 22: Progressive Conservative MLA Cliff Graydon expelled from the caucus due to sexual harassment allegations.
• December 14: Final Report of the Manitoba Electoral Boundaries Commission released.^[11]
• December 14: NDP MLA for Fort Garry-Riverview, James Allum, announces that he will not seek re-election.^[12]

2019

• April 3: Progressive Conservative MLA for Kildonan, Nic Curry announces that he will not seek re-election.^[13]
• August 12: Premier Pallister visits the lieutenant governor and calls the election for September 10.^[4]
• September 10: The election is held.

Movement in seats held

41st Manitoba Legislature - Movement in seats held up to the election (2016-2019)

Party		2016	Gain/(loss) due to					2019
			Resignation as MLA	Expulsion/ Suspension	Switching allegiance	Byelection gain	Byelection hold
	Progressive Conservative	40		(2)				38
	New Democratic	14	(2)	(1)			1	12
	Liberal	3				1		4
	Manitoba First	–			1			1
	Independent	–		3	(1)			2
Total		57	(2)	–	–	1	1	57

Changes in seats held (2016–2019)

Seat	Before				Change
	Date	Member	Party	Reason	Date	Member	Party
Point Douglas	January 9, 2017	Kevin Chief	█ New Democratic	Resignation	June 13, 2017	Bernadette Smith	█ New Democratic
The Maples	January 31, 2017	Mohinder Saran	█ New Democratic	Suspended from caucus			█ Independent
Assiniboia	June 30, 2017	Steven Fletcher	█ PC	Expelled from caucus			█ Independent
	September 11, 2018		█ Independent	Becomes leader of new party			█ Manitoba First
St. Boniface	March 7, 2018	Greg Selinger	█ New Democratic	Resignation	July 17, 2018	Dougald Lamont	█ Liberal
Emerson	October 22, 2018	Cliff Graydon	█ PC	Expelled from caucus			█ Independent

Historical results from 1990 onwards

Graph of Manitoba general election results by share of votes, 1990–2019; omitted are minor parties consistently registering less than 2% of the vote.

Graph of Manitoba general election results by seats won, 1990–2019; those of independent MNAs are omitted.

Campaign

Riding contests, by number of candidates (2019)^[14]

Candidates	PC	NDP	Lib	Grn	MFW	M1ST	Comm	Ind	Total
3	13	13	13						39
4	29	29	29	28	1				116
5	10	10	10	10	2	4	2	2	50
6	5	5	5	5	4	2	3	1	30
Total	57	57	57	43	7	6	5	3	235

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	PC	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other
Forum Research	September 9, 2019	[p 1]	43	29	17	10	1
Research Co.	September 9, 2019	[p 2]	44	31	16	7	1
Mainstreet Research	September 4, 2019	[p 3]	43.3	34.2	15.1	6.2	1.2
Research Co.	August 29, 2019	[p 4]	46	30	14	8	1
Probe Research Inc	August 24, 2019	[p 5]	40	29	18	10	3
Mainstreet Research	August 19, 2019	[p 6]	42.5	34.7	11.9	9.6	1.4
Converso	August 7, 2019	[p 7]	35.0	21.0	12.0	8.0	1.0
Probe Research Inc	June 17, 2019	[p 8]	42	26	16	14	3
Probe Research Inc	March 24, 2019	[p 9]	42	30	18	7
Mainstreet Research	March 24, 2019	[p 10]	44.8	32.1	13.1	6.7	3.3
Mainstreet Research	January 16, 2019	[p 11]	44.6	28.0	16.8	4.6	6.0
Probe Research Inc	December 6, 2018	[p 12]	44	27	21	5	3
Mainstreet Research	November 5, 2018	[p 13]	42.3	28.7	18.1	6.0	4.9
Probe Research Inc	September 28, 2018	[p 14]	44	25	20	8
Mainstreet Research	July 17, 2018	[p 15]	44.9	29.3	13.6	8.7	3.4
Probe Research Inc	June 19, 2018	[p 16]	42	30	16	11
Mainstreet Research	April 18, 2018	[p 17]	45.6	30.2	13.0	7.8
Probe Research Inc	April 13, 2018	[p 18]	44	28	19	8
Mainstreet Research	January 6, 2018	[p 19]	39.6	36.7	13.3	10.4
Probe Research Inc	December 14, 2017	[p 20]	40	26	25	8
Probe Research Inc	October 10, 2017	[p 21]	36	30	24	8
Probe Research Inc	June 18, 2017	[p 22]	42	30	20	7
Mainstreet Research	April 7, 2017	[p 23]	47	23	19	11
Probe Research Inc	March 28, 2017	[p 24]	43	27	20	8
Probe Research Inc	December 12, 2016	[p 25]	49	24	19	8
Probe Research Inc	September 26, 2016	[p 26]	48	20	26	5
Probe Research Inc	June 16, 2016	[p 27]	46	27	18	8
2016 election	April 19, 2016		53.0	25.7	14.5	5.1	1.7
Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link					Other
			PC	NDP	Liberal	Green

Progressive Conservative   NDP   Liberal   Green

Results

Elections to the 42nd Manitoba Legislature^[14]

Party		Leader	Candidates	Seats				Popular vote
				2016	Dissolution	2019	+/-	Votes	%	+/-
	Progressive Conservative	Brian Pallister	57	40	38	36	-4	222,569	46.81	-6.27
	New Democratic	Wab Kinew	57	14	12	18	+4	150,016	31.55	+5.77
	Liberal	Dougald Lamont	57	3	4	3	–	69,497	14.62	+0.22
	Green	James Beddome	43	–	–	–	–	30,295	6.37	+1.30
	Manitoba Forward	Wayne Sturby	7	–	–	–	–	1,339	0.28
	Manitoba First[a]	Douglas Petrick	6	–	1	–	–	647	0.14	-0.98
	Communist	Darrell Rankin	5	–	–	–	–	214	0.05	-0.02
	Independents		3	–	2	–	–	854	0.18	-0.29
	Vacant				0		–
Valid votes								478,926	99.27
Blank and invalid votes								3,495	0.73
Total			235	57	57	57		482,421	100
Registered voters/turnout								870,137	55.44

Vote and seat summaries

Ternary plots – shift of electoral support (2016–2019)

• 
  2016
• 
  2019

Electoral districts identified by colours of winning parties

Popular vote PC   46.81% New Democratic   31.55% Liberal   14.62% Green   6.37% Others   0.64%

Seat summary PC   63.16% New Democratic   31.58% Liberal   5.26%

Synopsis of results

2019 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results^[16]

Electoral division	2016 (Redist) [17]		Winning party								Votes[a 1]
			1st place		Votes	Share	Margin #	Margin %	2nd place		PC	NDP	Lib	Grn	Ind	Other	Total
Agassiz		PC		PC	5,700	75.53%	4,736	62.75%		NDP	5,700	964	463	420	–	–	7,547
Assiniboia		PC		PC	4,108	44.25%	816	8.79%		NDP	4,108	3,292	1,247	636	–	–	9,283
Borderland		PC		PC	4,886	66.09%	3,660	49.51%		Lib	4,886	291	1,226	250	740	–	7,393
Brandon East		PC		PC	3,294	51.00%	947	14.66%		NDP	3,294	2,347	818	–	–	–	6,459
Brandon West		PC		PC	4,311	58.39%	2,554	34.59%		NDP	4,311	1,757	567	748	–	–	7,383
Burrows		Lib		NDP	2,555	39.70%	874	13.58%		PC	1,681	2,555	1,178	–	–	1,022	6,436
Concordia		NDP		NDP	4,305	59.69%	2,010	27.87%		PC	2,295	4,305	612	–	–	–	7,212
Dauphin		PC		PC	4,805	50.52%	773	8.13%		NDP	4,805	4,032	675	–	–	–	9,512
Dawson Trail		PC		PC	4,555	55.41%	2,675	32.54%		Lib	4,555	1,785	1,880	–	–	–	8,220
Elmwood		NDP		NDP	3,886	48.68%	1,346	16.86%		PC	2,540	3,886	746	765	–	45	7,982
Flin Flon		NDP		NDP	3,173	63.19%	1,816	36.17%		PC	1,357	3,173	299	192	–	–	5,021
Fort Garry		PC		NDP	4,003	42.35%	996	10.54%		PC	3,007	4,003	1,719	723	–	–	9,452
Fort Richmond		PC		PC	3,242	42.15%	879	11.43%		Lib	3,242	1,708	2,363	379	–	–	7,692
Fort Rouge		NDP		NDP	5,055	51.24%	3,198	32.41%		PC	1,857	5,055	1,290	1,580	–	84	9,866
Fort Whyte		PC		PC	5,619	57.19%	3,862	39.30%		NDP	5,619	1,757	1,731	665	–	54	9,826
Interlake-Gimli		PC		PC	6,165	58.62%	2,687	25.55%		NDP	6,165	3,478	400	473	–	–	10,516
Keewatinook		Lib		NDP	1,932	67.08%	1,397	48.51%		Lib	413	1,932	535	–	–	–	2,880
Kildonan-River East		PC		PC	5,523	51.10%	1,844	17.06%		NDP	5,523	3,679	1,607	–	–	–	10,809
Kirkfield Park		PC		PC	5,445	50.36%	2,668	24.67%		NDP	5,445	2,777	1,695	896	–	–	10,813
La Vérendrye		PC		PC	5,310	72.79%	4,264	58.45%		NDP	5,310	1,046	939	–	–	–	7,295
Lac du Bonnet		PC		PC	6,177	65.91%	4,363	46.55%		NDP	6,177	1,814	1,381	–	–	–	9,372
Lagimodière		PC		PC	5,187	51.78%	2,395	23.91%		NDP	5,187	2,792	1,481	557	–	–	10,017
Lakeside		PC		PC	6,409	68.24%	4,320	46.00%		NDP	6,409	2,089	894	–	–	–	9,392
McPhillips		PC		PC	3,359	38.19%	88	1.00%		NDP	3,359	3,271	1,506	414	–	245	8,795
Midland		PC		PC	6,706	75.01%	5,334	59.66%		NDP	6,706	1,372	862	–	–	–	8,940
Morden-Winkler		PC		PC	6,109	80.86%	5,305	70.22%		Green	6,109	365	277	804	–	–	7,555
Notre Dame		NDP		NDP	3,420	65.01%	2,626	49.91%		PC	794	3,420	719	267	–	61	5,261
Point Douglas		NDP		NDP	3,136	62.35%	2,373	47.18%		PC	763	3,136	594	414	–	123	5,030
Portage la Prairie		PC		PC	4,502	65.67%	2,994	43.68%		NDP	4,502	1,508	845	–	–	–	6,855
Radisson		PC		PC	4,527	46.97%	989	10.26%		NDP	4,527	3,538	1,002	572	–	–	9,639
Red River North		PC		PC	5,569	57.97%	3,180	33.10%		NDP	5,569	2,389	735	740	–	173	9,606
Riding Mountain		PC		PC	6,126	65.91%	4,156	44.72%		NDP	6,126	1,970	472	726	–	–	9,294
Riel		PC		PC	4,734	44.75%	990	9.36%		NDP	4,734	3,744	1,471	630	–	–	10,579
River Heights		Lib		Lib	5,884	53.79%	3,182	29.09%		PC	2,702	1,595	5,884	757	–	–	10,938
Roblin		PC		PC	6,203	55.19%	4,180	37.19%		NDP	6,203	2,023	1,775	1,238	–	–	11,239
Rossmere		PC		PC	4,369	46.91%	751	8.06%		NDP	4,369	3,618	711	615	–	–	9,313
Seine River		PC		PC	4,372	45.04%	1,847	19.03%		NDP	4,372	2,525	2,151	659	–	–	9,707
Selkirk		PC		PC	4,872	51.84%	1,543	16.42%		NDP	4,872	3,329	482	716	–	–	9,399
Southdale		PC		PC	4,493	42.40%	483	4.56%		NDP	4,493	4,010	1,427	595	–	71	10,596
Springfield-Ritchot		PC		PC	5,670	59.48%	3,688	38.69%		NDP	5,670	1,982	814	1,066	–	–	9,532
Spruce Woods		PC		PC	5,665	68.06%	4,344	52.19%		NDP	5,665	1,321	517	820	–	–	8,323
St. Boniface		NDP		Lib	4,152	41.69%	1,177	11.82%		NDP	1,907	2,975	4,152	845	–	81	9,960
St. James		PC		NDP	4,002	47.25%	1,221	14.42%		PC	2,781	4,002	880	806	–	–	8,469
St. Johns		NDP		NDP	3,548	51.88%	1,874	27.40%		PC	1,674	3,548	1,111	506	–	–	6,839
St. Vital		PC		NDP	4,092	44.47%	881	9.58%		PC	3,211	4,092	1,274	502	62	60	9,201
Steinbach		PC		PC	6,241	81.64%	5,625	73.58%		NDP	6,241	616	370	418	–	–	7,645
Swan River		PC		PC	5,546	68.87%	3,462	42.99%		NDP	5,546	2,084	423	–	–	–	8,053
The Maples		NDP		NDP	2,792	39.51%	689	9.75%		Lib	1,883	2,792	2,103	289	–	–	7,067
The Pas-Kameesak		NDP		NDP	3,180	57.90%	1,844	33.58%		PC	1,336	3,180	186	790	–	–	5,492
Thompson		PC		NDP	2,686	54.55%	929	18.87%		PC	1,757	2,686	183	298	–	–	4,924
Transcona		PC		NDP	4,030	46.42%	112	1.29%		PC	3,918	4,030	734	–	–	–	8,682
Turtle Mountain		PC		PC	6,210	67.48%	4,838	52.57%		Green	6,210	1,003	618	1,372	–	–	9,203
Tuxedo		PC		PC	4,645	47.85%	2,358	24.29%		Lib	4,645	1,921	2,287	793	–	61	9,707
Tyndall Park		NDP		Lib	4,301	54.67%	1,898	24.13%		NDP	984	2,403	4,301	157	–	22	7,867
Union Station		NDP		NDP	2,913	52.62%	1,876	33.89%		Lib	950	2,913	1,037	538	–	98	5,536
Waverley		PC		PC	3,267	50.05%	1,400	21.45%		NDP	3,267	1,867	1,070	324	–	–	6,528
Wolseley		NDP		NDP	4,271	46.03%	931	10.03%		Green	838	4,271	778	3,340	52	–	9,279

1. All parties with more than 1% of the vote are shown individually. Independent candidates and other minor parties are aggregated separately.

  = new ridings

  = open seat

  = winning candidate was in previous Legislature

  = incumbent had switched allegiance

  = previously incumbent in another riding

  = incumbency arose from a byelection gain

  = not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature

  = other incumbents renominated

  = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada

  = multiple candidates

Turnout, winning shares and swings

Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2016)^[18][16][17]

Riding and winning party[a 1]				Turnout[a 2]				Vote share[a 3][a 1]				Swing[a 4][a 2]
				%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			To	Change (pp)
Agassiz		PC	Hold	56.05	-1.08			75.53	0.23			N/A[a 5]
Assiniboia		PC	Hold	54.70	-4.87			44.25	-0.85			NDP	-3.59
Borderland		PC	Hold	61.86	8.38			66.09	-13.21			Lib	-1.14
Brandon East		PC	Hold	45.68	-8.81			51.00	-0.5			NDP	-0.74
Brandon West		PC	Hold	51.27	-4.65			58.39	-9.81			NDP	-5.68
Burrows		NDP	Gain	46.08	-6.53			39.70	5.9			NDP	-18.33
Concordia		NDP	Hold	48.46	-5.63			59.69	15.59			NDP	11.67
Dauphin		PC	Hold	58.62	-3.23			50.52	-6.28			NDP	-14.12
Dawson Trail		PC	Hold	57.84	0.06			55.41	1.21			PC	0.22
Elmwood		NDP	Hold	50.23	-4.76			48.68	3.08			NDP	7.6
Flin Flon		NDP	Hold	33.91	-0.53			63.19	24.89			NDP	15.83
Fort Garry		NDP	Gain	61.69	-6.85			42.35	6.45			NDP	3.62
Fort Richmond		PC	Hold	57.38	-9.72			42.15	-5.55			PC	5.32
Fort Rouge		NDP	Hold	58.76	-6.39			51.24	13.34			NDP	11.79
Fort Whyte		PC	Hold	60.35	-0.36			57.19	-7.31			NDP	-4.3
Interlake-Gimli		PC	Hold	65.56				58.62	-2.18
Keewatinook		NDP	Gain	21.84	-2.47			67.08	26.38			NDP	-29.94
Kildonan-River East		PC	Hold	61.82				51.10	-6.2
Kirkfield Park		PC	Hold	61.25	-7.47			50.36	-1.84			PC	0.67
La Vérendrye		PC	Hold	55.41	0.09			72.79	-5.81			PC	5.68
Lac du Bonnet		PC	Hold	61.24	6.32			65.91	-11.59			NDP	-4.2
Lagimodière		PC	Hold	62.27				51.78	-12.02
Lakeside		PC	Hold	59.22	1.44			68.24	-11.76			NDP	-8.62
McPhillips		PC	Hold	56.64				38.19	-9.51
Midland		PC	Hold	59.27	-0.38			75.01	-3.39			PC	4.76
Morden-Winkler		PC	Hold	51.19	-0.74			80.86	-2.24			Green	-3.11
Notre Dame		NDP	Hold	40.86	-10.52			65.01	20.21			NDP	8.2
Point Douglas		NDP	Hold	36.00	-6.53			62.35	7.45			NDP	6.1
Portage la Prairie		PC	Hold	48.64	-2.69			65.67	-4.93			PC	0.82
Radisson		PC	Hold	56.47	-6.37			46.97	-6.83			NDP	-4.08
Red River North		PC	Hold	63.96				57.97	-8.23
Riding Mountain		PC	Hold	55.72	0.22			65.91	-7.29			PC	2.67
Riel		PC	Hold	63.24	-4.14			44.75	-6.15			NDP	-5.48
River Heights		Lib	Hold	65.48	-7.23			53.79	7.59			Lib	5.89
Roblin		PC	Hold	61.83	-3.82			55.19	-7.11			Lib	-3.84
Rossmere		PC	Hold	59.62	-0.9			46.91	-11.69			NDP	-5.58
Seine River		PC	Hold	62.12				45.04	-7.96
Selkirk		PC	Hold	59.25	0.52			51.84	-4.46			NDP	-5.53
Southdale		PC	Hold	61.66	-0.65			42.40	-9.2			NDP	-17.85
Springfield-Ritchot		PC	Hold	60.56				59.48	-7.22
Spruce Woods		PC	Hold	56.75	4.76			68.06	-3.34			N/A[a 6]
St. Boniface		Lib	Gain	59.78	-3.89			41.69	22.89			PC	-2.91
St. James		NDP	Gain	55.78	-6.16			47.25	12.65			NDP	-12.03
St. Johns		NDP	Hold	47.34	-4.09			51.88	14.58			NDP	9.86
St. Vital		NDP	Gain	60.78	-3.19			44.47	10.17			NDP	-7.23
Steinbach		PC	Hold	52.49	0.78			81.64	-6.96			Lib	-3.24
Swan River		PC	Hold	54.87	-5.31			68.87	3.47			PC	9.98
The Maples		NDP	Hold	53.08	-2.55			39.51	3.21			NDP	5.62
The Pas-Kameesak		NDP	Hold	43.04	12.34			57.90	19.1			NDP	14.47
Thompson		NDP	Gain	37.27	-0.08			54.55	16.15			NDP	-11.82
Transcona		NDP	Gain	52.45	-3.54			46.42	18.22			NDP	-11.07
Turtle Mountain		PC	Hold	57.28	3.99			67.48	-8.62			N/A[a 6]
Tuxedo		PC	Hold	57.90	-4.5			47.85	-5.25			NDP	-7.52
Tyndall Park		Lib	Gain	56.39	2.99			54.67	23.27			Lib	-16.46
Union Station		NDP	Hold	44.06	-7.92			52.62	12.72			NDP	11.44
Waverley		PC	Hold	51.95				50.05	-4.85
Wolseley		NDP	Hold	56.96	-6.3			46.03	1.33			NDP	2.35

1. using 2016 redistribution data from CBC
2. using 2016 base data from Elections Manitoba
3. Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2011.
4. Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2011; negative points to 2011's second-place party being swung to.
5. an Independent candidate came in second in 2016, but did not stand in 2019
6. Manitoba First (then called the Manitoba Party) finished second in 2016, but opted not to field candidates in this election

Changes in party shares

Share change analysis by party and riding (2019 vs 2016)^[16][17]

Riding	Green				Liberal				NDP				PC
	%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)			%	Change (pp)
Agassiz	5.57	0.27			6.13	5.23			12.77	6.37			75.53	0.23
Assiniboia	6.85	-0.55			13.43	-5.37			35.46	6.86			44.25	-0.85
Borderland	3.38	1.38			16.58	1.68			3.94	0.14			66.09	-13.21
Brandon East					12.66	0.56			36.34	-0.06			51.00	-0.50
Brandon West	10.13	10.13			7.68	-0.02			23.80	-0.40			58.39	-9.81
Burrows	–	-4.30			18.30	-23.30			39.70	5.90			26.12	6.32
Concordia					8.49	-1.81			59.69	15.59			31.82	-9.88
Dauphin	–	-6.70			7.10	-0.70			42.39	15.89			50.52	-6.28
Dawson Trail	–	-2.70			22.87	3.97			21.72	2.42			55.41	1.21
Elmwood	9.58	9.58			9.35	8.65			48.68	3.08			31.82	-13.28
Flin Flon	3.82	2.02			5.95	-20.05			63.19	24.89			27.03	1.93
Fort Garry	7.65	-4.85			18.19	4.69			42.35	6.45			31.81	-5.89
Fort Richmond	4.93	0.33			30.72	18.02			22.20	-11.90			42.15	-5.55
Fort Rouge	16.01	-1.19			13.08	-1.92			51.24	13.34			18.82	-9.28
Fort Whyte	6.77	-0.43			17.62	6.22			17.88	2.18			57.19	-7.31
Interlake-Gimli	4.50	1.50			3.80	-7.30			33.07	8.47			58.62	-2.18
Keewatinook					18.58	-23.42			67.08	26.38			14.34	-2.86
Kildonan-River East	–	-1.80			14.87	5.47			34.04	3.54			51.10	-6.20
Kirkfield Park	8.29	0.39			15.68	6.18			25.68	-4.52			50.36	-1.84
La Vérendrye	–	-3.20			12.87	2.27			14.34	6.74			72.79	-5.81
Lac du Bonnet	–	-1.70			14.74	13.54			19.36	-0.34			65.91	-11.59
Lagimodière	5.56	5.36			14.78	0.88			27.87	5.87			51.78	-12.02
Lakeside					9.52	5.92			22.24	5.84			68.24	-11.76
McPhillips	4.71	0.21			17.12	4.32			37.19	3.19			38.19	-9.51
Midland	–	-4.50			9.64	0.34			15.35	7.55			75.01	-3.39
Morden-Winkler	10.64	0.84			3.67	-0.33			4.83	1.73			80.86	-2.24
Notre Dame	5.08	-1.72			13.67	-8.53			65.01	20.21			15.09	-4.81
Point Douglas	8.23	2.73			11.81	-9.09			62.35	7.45			15.17	-1.23
Portage la Prairie					12.33	-6.47			22.00	11.40			65.67	-4.93
Radisson	5.93	5.93			10.40	-2.20			36.71	5.01			46.97	-6.83
Red River North	7.70	7.70			7.65	-4.45			24.87	3.17			57.97	-8.23
Riding Mountain	7.81	1.31			5.08	-2.82			21.20	13.40			65.91	-7.29
Riel	5.96	5.26			13.90	-5.50			35.39	6.29			44.75	-6.15
River Heights	6.92	-1.18			53.79	7.59			14.58	2.88			24.70	-9.10
Roblin	11.02	0.02			15.79	2.39			18.00	4.70			55.19	-7.11
Rossmere	6.60	6.60			7.63	-0.57			38.85	8.25			46.91	-11.69
Seine River	6.79	6.79			22.16	2.86			26.01	-1.19			45.04	-7.96
Selkirk	7.62	1.22			5.13	-2.87			35.42	8.12			51.84	-4.46
Southdale	5.62	4.82			13.47	-3.33			37.84	6.94			42.40	-9.20
Springfield-Ritchot	11.18	10.08			8.54	-6.26			20.79	5.59			59.48	-7.22
Spruce Woods	9.85	8.15			6.21	-1.19			15.87	2.27			68.06	-3.34
St. Boniface	8.48	-3.52			41.69	22.89			29.87	-12.13			19.15	-7.95
St. James	9.52	-0.48			10.39	-3.41			47.25	12.65			32.84	-5.66
St. Johns	7.40	-3.10			16.25	-6.65			51.88	14.58			24.48	-4.72
St. Vital	5.46	-0.84			13.85	-2.75			44.47	10.17			34.90	-7.90
Steinbach	5.47	5.47			4.84	-1.36			8.06	2.86			81.64	-6.96
Swan River	–	-5.40			5.25	-2.15			25.88	4.38			68.87	3.47
The Maples	4.09	-2.91			29.76	6.96			39.51	3.21			26.64	-7.26
The Pas-Kameesak	14.38	11.08			3.39	-15.91			57.90	19.10			24.33	-14.17
Thompson	6.05	6.05			3.72	-17.18			54.55	16.15			35.68	-4.82
Transcona					8.45	-10.15			46.42	18.22			45.13	-4.67
Turtle Mountain	14.91	11.51			6.72	2.32			10.90	2.20			67.48	-8.62
Tuxedo	8.17	-5.83			23.56	4.96			19.79	5.49			47.85	-5.25
Tyndall Park	2.00	-4.50			54.67	23.27			30.55	-5.75			12.51	-13.19
Union Station	9.72	-4.48			18.73	-4.07			52.62	12.72			17.16	-2.44
Waverley	4.96	2.46			16.39	2.69			28.60	1.20			50.05	-4.85
Wolseley	36.00	6.80			8.38	-0.62			46.03	1.33			9.03	-4.27

  = did not field a candidate in 2016

Summary analysis

Party candidates in 2nd place^[14]

Party in 1st place		Party in 2nd place				Total
		PC	NDP	Liberal	Grn
	Progressive Conservative		30	4	2	36
	New Democratic	14		3	1	18
	Liberal	1	2			8
Total		15	32	7	3	57

Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results^[14]

Parties		Seats
█ Progressive Conservative	█ New Democratic	44
█ Progressive Conservative	█ Liberal	5
█ Progressive Conservative	█ Green	2
█ New Democratic	█ Liberal	5
█ New Democratic	█ Green	1
Total		57

Candidates ranked 1st to 5th place, by party^[14]

Parties		1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	Total
	Progressive Conservative	36	15	6			57
	New Democratic	18	32	6	1		57
	Liberal	3	7	32	15		57
	Green		3	12	27	1	43
	Manitoba First					5	5
	Manitoba Forward				1	3	4
	Independent			1		2	3

Seats changing hands

Elections to the 42nd Legislative Assembly of Manitoba – seats won/lost by party, 2016–2019

Party		2016 (Redist)	Gain from (loss to)						2019
			PC		NDP		Lib
	Progressive Conservative	41				(5)			36
	New Democratic	13	5				2	(2)	18
	Liberal	3			2	(2)			3
Total		57	5	–	2	(7)	2	(2)	57

Nine seats changed allegiance in 2019:

PC to NDP Fort Garry St. James St. Vital Thompson Transcona

Liberal to NDP Burrows Keewatinook NDP to Liberal St. Boniface Tyndall Park

Resulting composition of the 42nd Legislative Assembly of Manitoba

Source		Party
		PC	NDP	Lib	Total
Seats retained	Incumbents returned	29	7	1	37
	Seats retained by incumbents from other ridings	5			5
	Open seats held	1	4		5
	Ouster of incumbent changing affiliation	1			1
Seats changing hands	Incumbents defeated		3		3
	Open seats gained		4		4
	Seat gained by incumbent from another riding			1	1
	Byelection gain held			1	1
Total		36	18	3	57

Incumbents not running for reelection

Riding	Incumbent at dissolution and subsequent nominee			New MLA
Assiniboia		Steven Fletcher[19] (elected as PC)	none		Scott Johnston
Fort Garry-Riverview (redistributed to Fort Garry)		James Allum[20]	Mark Wasyliw[21]		Mark Wasyliw
Kildonan (redistributed to Kildonan-River East)		Nic Curry[13]	Cathy Cox		Cathy Cox
Logan (redistributed to Notre Dame and Union Station)		Flor Marcelino[22]	Uzoma Asagwara		Uzoma Asagwara
Wolseley		Rob Altemeyer[23]	Lisa Naylor[24]		Lisa Naylor
Minto (redistributed to Notre Dame)		Andrew Swan[25]	Malaya Marcelino		Malaya Marcelino
Keewatinook		Judy Klassen[26]	Jason Harper		Ian Bushie

Notes

1. Party name changed from Manitoba Party in 2019.^[15]