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2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts

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2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Massachusetts was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. On September 1, incumbent senator Ed Markey defeated U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III in a competitive primary for the Democratic nomination, and Kevin O'Connor defeated Shiva Ayyadurai for the Republican nomination. Markey went on to win the general election with 66.2% of the vote, and was thus re-elected to a second full term in a landslide.

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Democratic primary

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Perspective

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1] Incumbent senator Ed Markey was challenged by U.S. Representative Joe Kennedy III, a member of the Kennedy family. Kennedy and Markey had similar political positions, both being considered reliably liberal Democrats, though Markey was considered more left-wing on the DW-Nominate scale.[2] An elected senator had not been defeated in a primary since Richard Lugar in 2012, and an elected Democrat had not been defeated since Joe Lieberman in 2006.[3]

In August 2019, it was reported that Kennedy was considering a primary challenge to Markey.[4] He announced that he would be launching a campaign on September 18.[5] According to Vox, one of the main reasons for Kennedy's decision to challenge Markey, rather than waiting for a Senate seat to open up, was that Markey was perceived to be an easier opponent than the raft of candidates that would run without an incumbent.[6] Polling of the potential match-up showed Markey trailing Kennedy by as much as 14 points, leading to speculation that he would retire rather than face a humiliating primary defeat, but he resolved to run for re-election.[7]

Kennedy faced skepticism about his reasons for running to replace Markey, and journalists observed that his campaign had difficulty articulating a clear rationale.[8] Eventually, Kennedy's campaign pitch largely focused around a message that he would "show up" for disadvantaged residents of Massachusetts, something he claimed Markey had not been doing.[9] This strategy was heavily inspired by Ayanna Pressley's successful campaign for the U.S. House the previous cycle, and was aimed at casting Kennedy as an insurgent outsider running against the establishment.[9]

Facing a severe polling deficit, Markey undertook to politically reinvent himself; his relatively low profile in Massachusetts gave him the opportunity to essentially define himself for the first time to many voters.[10] The main focus of Markey's re-election strategy was to promote himself as a left-wing iconoclast who clashed with the Democratic Party apparatus; to this extent a campaign ad from 1976 wherein Markey promoted his clashes with Massachusetts political bosses was widely used by his campaign.[10] Markey also frequently promoted an endorsement he received from New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a favorite of the Democratic Party's left; Ocasio-Cortez's endorsement encouraged left-wing activist organizations to also support Markey, and resulted in the incumbent developing a large following on the internet.[10]

Support from within the Democratic Party was divided. Markey received support from the DSCC, Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, and DSCC chair Catherine Cortez Masto. He was also endorsed by key figures in the party's progressive wing, such as Ocasio-Cortez, fellow Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren, and the youth-led Sunrise Movement.[11] Kennedy received various endorsements from the House leadership, including Speaker Nancy Pelosi,[12][13] House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer,[14] House Democratic Caucus chair Hakeem Jeffries,[15] House Intelligence Committee chair Adam Schiff,[16] and House Democratic Senior Chief Deputy Whip John Lewis.[17]

As the campaign progressed, Markey began to explicitly criticise the Kennedy family, deeming them as emblematic of privilege, and frequently contrasting the Kennedy Compound with his own upbringing in Malden.[18] Kennedy attacked Markey for these actions, accusing him of "weaponizing" the history of the Kennedy family.[19] As the race entered its final days the contest began to assume an ideological meaning, with New York writer Gabriel Debendetti writing that the contest was viewed as a "fight for the soul of the national Democratic party", with both candidates claiming that a victory for them would be an affirmation of the strength of the left-wing of the Democrats.[20]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Joe Kennedy III
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide politicians
State legislators
Local politicians
Individuals
Labor unions
Newspapers
Ed Markey
Executive officials
  • Al Gore, 45th vice president of the United States (1993–2001), U.S. Senator from Tennessee (1985–1993)[72]
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide politicians
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Fundraising

More information Campaign finance reports as of August 12, 2020, Candidate ...

Polling

More information Joe Kennedy III vs. Ed Markey, Source of poll aggregation ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Debates

More information No., Date ...

Results

Markey defeated his challenger, Joe Kennedy III. Markey won by running up big margins in Boston and its suburbs, and did well in western Massachusetts, especially in college towns. Kennedy did well in the Cape Cod region, and won many Southern municipalities, especially his native 4th district.[179] Despite Kennedy's strength in Southern Massachusetts, Markey defeated Kennedy in portions of the 4th district near Boston, carrying Kennedy's hometown of Newton by 28.2% and neighboring Brookline by 39%. Markey's margin of victory of 10.8% was attributed to his unexpected strength among progressives and younger voters.[180][21] Kennedy's loss marked the first time a member of the Kennedy family had lost an election in Massachusetts.[181][182]

Thumb
Results by Municipality:
  Markey
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Kennedy
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
      Tie
Thumb
Results by precinct:
  Markey
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Kennedy
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Tie
  No data/No votes
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Republican primary

The state primary election took place on September 1, 2020.[1]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Results

Thumb
Results by municipality
More information Party, Candidate ...
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Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Failed to qualify

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

Green Party

Withdrawn

  • Andre "Maha Visnu" Gray, co-chair of the Massachusetts Green-Rainbow Party, teacher, and businessman[185][193]

Independents

Write-in candidate

  • Shiva Ayyadurai (switched to this candidacy after losing Republican primary)[188]

Withdrawn

General election

Summarize
Perspective

The general election took place on November 3, 2020.[1]

Debate

More information No., Date ...

Predictions

More information Source, Ranking ...

Endorsements

Ed Markey (D)
U.S. representatives
Local officials
  • Brian Arrigo, mayor of Revere[89]
  • Ricardo Arroyo, Boston City Councilor[82]
  • Tom Bernard, mayor of North Adams[89]
  • James Fiorentini, mayor of Haverhill[89]
  • Scott Galvin, mayor of Woburn[89]
  • Donna Holaday, mayor of Newburyport[89]
  • Nicole LaChapelle, mayor of Easthampton[89]
  • Breanna Lungo-Koehn, mayor of Medford[89]
  • David Narkewicz, mayor of Northampton[89]
  • Dan Rivera, mayor of Lawrence[89]
  • William Sapelli, mayor of Agawam[87]
  • Robert Sullivan, mayor of Brockton[89]
  • Linda Tyer, mayor of Pittsfield[89]
  • John Vieau, mayor of Chicopee[87]
  • Roxann Wedegartner, mayor of Greenfield[87]
Individuals
  • Anne Cellucci Adams, daughter of former governor Paul Cellucci[207]
  • Steve Pemberton, chief human resources officer of Workhuman and former candidate for U.S. Senate[208]
Unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Kevin O'Connor (R)
Statewide politicians

Polling

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
Hypothetical polling

with Charlie Baker

More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...
More information Poll source, Date(s) administered ...

Results

More information Party, Candidate ...

By county

Markey won all 14 of Massachusetts' counties for the second election in a row.

More information By county, County ...

By congressional district

Markey won all nine congressional districts.[226]

More information District, Markey ...
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See also

Notes

General

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. "Refused" with 0%
  4. "Another candidate" with 2%
  5. "Another candidate" with 4%
  6. "Refused" with 1%
  7. "Some other candidate" with 3%; "Refused" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  8. "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 0%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll conducted for the O'Connor campaign.
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References

Further reading

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