2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

Not to be confused with 2020 Kentucky Senate election.

The 2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Mitch McConnell, who had been Senate Majority Leader since 2015 and senator from Kentucky since 1985, won reelection to a seventh, and ultimately last, term in office. He faced off against former U.S. Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath and Libertarian Brad Barron.

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky

← 2014 November 3, 2020 2026 →
Turnout	59.7%
Nominee Mitch McConnell Amy McGrath Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,233,315 816,257 Percentage 57.76% 38.23%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results McConnell:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%      >90% McGrath:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      40-50%      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election Mitch McConnell Republican Elected U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell Republican

The Democratic and Republican primaries took place on June 23, 2020. As the primaries neared, the president of the National Bar Association accused officials of carrying out voter suppression. Compared to typical numbers of 3,700, the number of polling stations was reduced to 200 with only one in Louisville.^[1] Because a large number of voters voted by mail, absentee ballots were not counted until June 30. In the primary, over 937,000 people requested absentee ballots or voted early, a far greater number than usual.^[2]

Despite much speculation about this race being potentially competitive and large amounts of money being poured in to try to defeat McConnell, he wound up winning his final term with his largest margin of victory since 2002, defeating McGrath by nearly 20 percentage points. He also won Elliott and Wolfe Counties for the first time, solidifying rural Kentucky's hard swing towards the GOP. This was the only election in which McConnell attained more than 1 million votes.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. senator and Senate Majority Leader^[3][4]

Eliminated in primary

• Nicholas Alsager^[5]
• Paul John Frangedakis, chiropractor^[5] (switched to independent write-in candidacy after losing primary)^[6]
• Louis Grider, truck driver^[5]
• Neren James^[5]
• Kenneth Lowndes^[5]
• C. Wesley Morgan, former state representative^[7]

Withdrawn

• Wendell K. Crow, businessman and entrepreneur^[5][8] (remained on ballot)
• Karl Das^[9][8]

Results

Results by county:

  McConnell—>90%

  McConnell—80–90%

  McConnell—70–80%

Republican primary results^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Mitch McConnell (incumbent)	342,660	82.80%
	Republican	C. Wesley Morgan	25,588	6.18%
	Republican	Louis Grider	13,771	3.33%
	Republican	Paul John Frangedakis	11,957	2.89%
	Republican	Neren James	10,693	2.58%
	Republican	Kenneth Lowndes	5,548	1.34%
	Republican	Nicholas Alsager	3,603	0.87%
Total votes			413,820	100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Amy McGrath, former U.S. Marine fighter pilot and Democratic nominee for Kentucky's 6th congressional district in 2018^[11][12]

Eliminated in primary

Representative Charles Booker placed second in the Democratic primary.

• Charles Booker, state representative^[13][14]
• Mike Broihier, farmer, educator, and former Marine^[15]
• Maggie Joe Hilliard^[5]
• Andrew Maynard^[5]
• Eric Rothmuller, small business owner^[16]
• John R. Sharpensteen^[5]
• Bennie J. Smith, local business owner^[17]
• Mary Ann Tobin, former Auditor of Kentucky^[18]

Withdrawn

• Jimmy Ausbrooks, mental health counselor^[19] (endorsed Mike Broihier)^[20] (remained on ballot)
• Steven Cox, registered pharmacy technician^[21] (endorsed Charles Booker)^[22]
• Joshua Paul Edwards^[23][8]
• Kevin Elliott, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Murray State University^[9][8]
• Dr. Loretta Babalmoradi Noble^[24][8]

Declined

• Rocky Adkins, former minority leader of the Kentucky House of Representatives and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019^[25]
• Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky, former attorney general of Kentucky, and son of former governor Steve Beshear^[26][27][28]
• Steve Beshear, former governor of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 1996^[26]
• Jack Conway, former attorney general of Kentucky, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010, nominee for Governor of Kentucky in 2015^[26]
• Adam Edelen, former state auditor and candidate for Governor of Kentucky in 2019^[26]
• Greg Fischer, Mayor of Louisville^[29]
• Jim Gray, Secretary of the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet, former mayor of Lexington and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2016^[30]
• Alison Lundergan Grimes, former secretary of state of Kentucky and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[26] (endorsed Booker)
• Matt Jones, attorney, media personality, and restaurateur (had formed an exploratory committee beforehand, endorsed Booker)^[31][32]

Campaign

There were debates on March 5, 2020^[33][34] and June 1, 2020.^[35][36]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Charles Booker	Amy McGrath	Other	Undecided
Data for Progress[37][A]	June 10–22, 2020	556 (LV)	–	43%	46%	–	10%
Garin-Hart-Yang[38][B]	June 16–18, 2020	–	–	32%	42%	–	–
Civiqs/Data for Progress[39]	June 13–15, 2020	421 (LV)	± 5.5%	44%	36%	9%[b]	11%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[40][C]	June 8–12, 2020	313 (RV)	± 7.0%	39%	49%	6%[c]	3%
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[41][C]	May 2020	–[d]	–	13%	62%	–	–
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[41][C]	April 2020	–[d]	–	11%	62%	–	–
YouGov Blue/MVMT Communications[41][C]	January 2020	–[d]	–	7%	65%	–	–

Endorsements

Charles Booker

U.S. senators

• Jesse Jackson Sr., former Shadow U.S. Senator from the District of Columbia (1991–1997), 1988 and 1984 candidate for president, founder of Rainbow/PUSH^[42]
• Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont, 2016 and 2020 candidate for president^[43]

U.S. representatives

• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. representative for NY-14^[44]

State legislators

• Alison Lundergan Grimes, former secretary of state of Kentucky (2012–2020); Democratic nominee for Kentucky's U.S. Senate election in 2014^[45]
• Gerald Neal, Kentucky State Senator^[46]
• Reggie Thomas, Kentucky State Senator^[46]

Newspapers

• Lexington Herald-Leader^[47]
• Louisville Courier-Journal^[48]

Unions

• Association of Flight Attendants^[49]
• National Nurses United^[50]

Organizations and political parties

• Democracy for America^[51]
• Friends of the Earth Action^[52]
• Indivisible movement^[51]
• Kentuckians for the Commonwealth^[53]
• MoveOn^[51]
• Working Families Party^[51]

Individuals

• Nick Offerman, actor

Mike Broihier

State and local officials from other states

• Richard Ojeda, West Virginia State Senator for the 7th district (2016–2019); 2020 presidential and U.S. Senate candidate^[54]

Individuals

• Marianne Williamson, author, peace activist, spiritual leader, 2020 presidential candidate^[55]
• Andrew Yang, author, entrepreneur, and 2020 presidential candidate^[56]
• Wendell Berry, famed poet, author, and farmer from Kentucky.^[57]

Organizations

• Indivisible Kentucky, progressive advocacy organization^[58]

Amy McGrath

Organizations

• Council for a Livable World^[59]
• DSCC^[60]
• Feminist Majority PAC^[61]
• Giffords^[62]
• J Street PAC^[63]
• VoteVets.org^[64]

Results

Results by county:

  McGrath—60–70%

  McGrath—50–60%

  McGrath—40–50%

  Booker—40–50%

  Booker—50–60%

Democratic primary results^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Amy McGrath	247,037	45.41%
	Democratic	Charles Booker	231,888	42.62%
	Democratic	Mike Broihier	27,175	4.99%
	Democratic	Mary Ann Tobin	11,108	2.04%
	Democratic	Maggie Joe Hilliard	6,224	1.14%
	Democratic	Andrew Maynard	5,974	1.10%
	Democratic	Bennie J. Smith	5,040	0.93%
	Democratic	Jimmy Ausbrooks (withdrawn)	3,629	0.67%
	Democratic	Eric Rothmuller	2,995	0.55%
	Democratic	John R. Sharpensteen	2,992	0.55%
Total votes			544,062	100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Kentucky did not qualify to nominate through the taxpayer-funded primary and held its own privately operated primary on March 8, 2020. Anyone registered Libertarian in the state of Kentucky as of January 1, 2020, could participate.^[65][66] All candidates of the Libertarian Party of Kentucky must defeat None Of The Above (NOTA) to obtain the nomination.^[67]

Nominee

• Brad Barron, farmer and entrepreneur^[68]

Reform Party

Withdrawn

• Derek Leonard Petteys^[69][8]

Independents

Declared

• Daniel Cobble (as a write-in candidate)^[6]
• Harold H. Fitzpatrick (as a write-in candidate)^[6]
• Paul John Frangedakis (as a write-in candidate) (switched from Republican candidacy after losing primary)^[6]
• Randall Lee Teegarden (as a write-in candidate)^[6]
• Demetra Wysinger (as a write-in candidate)^[6]

Withdrawn

• Alyssa Dara McDowell, independent candidate for president in 2016, 2018 Independent nominee for Kentucky House of Representatives District 65^[70][8]

General election

Despite record breaking fundraising from McGrath and speculation that the race could be competitive, McConnell was handily re-elected. Throughout the general election, McConnell portrayed McGrath as an overly liberal "rioter apologist" and made use of a comment from 2018 where McGrath compared her reaction to Trump being elected in 2016 to how she felt during the September 11 attacks.^[71]

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 12, 2020 - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[72]	Likely R	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[73]	Safe R	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[74]	Likely R	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[75]	Safe R	October 30, 2020
Politico[76]	Likely R	November 2, 2020
RCP[77]	Likely R	October 23, 2020
DDHQ[78]	Safe R	November 3, 2020
538[79]	Safe R	November 2, 2020
Economist[80]	Likely R	November 2, 2020

Additional general election endorsements

Amy McGrath (D)

U.S. Senators

• Kirsten Gillibrand, U.S. senator from New York (2009–present); former 2020 presidential candidate^[81]
• Kamala Harris, U.S. senator from California (2017–2021)^[82]

U.S. Representatives

• Seth Moulton, U.S. representative from Massachusetts's 6th congressional district^[83]

State officials

• Andy Beshear, Governor of Kentucky^[84]

Individuals

• Ann Coulter, media pundit (Republican)^[85]
• Alex Kurtzman, producer, writer and director^[86]

Organizations

• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs^[87]

Unions

• International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers^[88]
• Kentucky AFL-CIO^[89]
• National Education Association^[90]
• Service Employees International Union 1199 WV/KY/OH^[91]
• United Auto Workers^[92]

Polling

Graphical summary

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Mitch McConnell (R)	Amy McGrath (D)	Brad Barron (L)	Other / Undecided
Swayable[93]	October 23 – November 1, 2020	365 (LV)	± 7.9%	49%	46%	5%	–
Morning Consult[94]	October 22–31, 2020	911 (LV)	± 3%	51%	40%	–	–
Bluegrass Community & Technical College[95]	October 12–28, 2020	250 (RV)	–	50%	40%	–	10%[e]
Cygnal[96]	October 19–20, 2020	640 (LV)	± 3.9%	50%	40%	5%	5%[f]
Mason-Dixon[97]	October 12–15, 2020	625 (LV)	± 4%	51%	42%	4%	3%[g]
Morning Consult[98]	September 11–20, 2020	746 (LV)	± (2% – 7%)	52%	37%	–	–
Data for Progress (D)[99]	September 14–19, 2020	807 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%[h]	39%	3%	12%[i]
				48%[j]	41%	–	11%[k]
Quinnipiac University[100]	September 10–14, 2020	1,164 (LV)	± 2.9%	53%	41%	–	5%[l]
Quinnipiac University[101]	July 30 – August 3, 2020	909 (RV)	± 3.3%	49%	44%	–	7%[m]
Bluegrass Data (D)[102][D]	July 25–29, 2020	3,020 (RV)	± 2.0%	49%	46%	4%	–
Morning Consult[103]	July 24 – August 2, 2020	793 (LV)	± 3.0%	53%	36%	–	12%[n]
Spry Strategies (R)[104][E]	July 11–16, 2020	600 (LV)	± 3.7%	55%	33%	–	12%[i]
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[105][B]	July 7–12, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	45%	41%	7%	7%[o]
Civiqs/Data for Progress[39]	June 13–15, 2020	898 (RV)	± 3.8%	53%	33%	4%	11%[p]
RMG Research[106][F]	May 21–24, 2020	500 (RV)	± 4.5%	40%	41%	–	19%[q]
Bluegrass Data (D)[107][D]	April 7–12, 2020[r]	4,000 (RV)	–	40%	38%	7%	–
Change Research (D)[108][B]	January 17–21, 2020	1,281 (LV)	± 2.8%	41%	41%	–	18%
Garin-Hart-Yang Research (D)[109][B]	January 8–13, 2020	802 (LV)	± 3.5%	43%	40%	–	17%
Fabrizio Ward[110][G]	July 29–31, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	46%	–	6%
Change Research (D)[111][B]	June 15–16, 2019	1,629 (LV)	–	47%	45%	–	8%

Hypothetical polling

with Charles Booker

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Mitch McConnell (R)	Charles Booker (D)	Other / Undecided
Civiqs/Data for Progress[39]	June 13–15, 2020	898 (RV)	± 3.8%	52%	38%	9%[s]

with Jim Gray

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Mitch McConnell (R)	Jim Gray (D)	Undecided
Gravis Marketing[112]	June 11–12, 2019	741 (LV)	± 3.6%	49%	41%	10%

with Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Mitch McConnell (R)	Generic Democrat	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling[113]	May 14–15, 2020	1,104 (V)	–	47%	44%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[114][H]	Feb 11–12, 2019	748 (RV)	± 3.6%	45%	42%	12%
Public Policy Polling (D)[115][I]	Aug 15–16, 2017	645 (V)	–	37%	44%	19%

on whether Mitch McConnell deserves to be re-elected

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Yes	No	Other / Undecided
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[116]	July 29–31, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	31%	62%	8%[t]
Public Policy Polling (D)[117][H]	Feb 11–12, 2019	748 (RV)	± 3.6%	32%	61%	8%

with Generic Republican and Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Generic Republican	Generic Democrat	Other / Undecided
Cygnal[96]	October 19–20, 2020	640 (LV)	± 3.9%	55%	39%	6%[u]
Quinnipiac University[100]	September 10–14, 2020	1,164 (LV)	± 2.9%	54%	38%	8%[v]
Fabrizio Ward/AARP[118]	July 29–31, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	42%	13%[w]

Results

McConnell was announced as the winner on November 3.^[119] When pressed for a potential recount of the election amid legal disputes regarding the general, McConnell dismissed the idea, since, "at the risk of bragging, it wasn't very close."^[120][121]

2020 United States Senate election in Kentucky^[122]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Mitch McConnell (incumbent)	1,233,315	57.76%	+1.57%
	Democratic	Amy McGrath	816,257	38.23%	−2.49%
	Libertarian	Brad Barron	85,386	4.00%	+0.92%
	Write-in		99	0.01%	-0.00%
Total votes			2,135,057	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Bath (largest municipality: Owingsville)
• Elliott (largest municipality: Sandy Hook)
• Marion (largest municipality: Lebanon)
• Menifee (largest municipality: Frenchburg)
• Nicholas (largest municipality: Carlisle)
• Rowan (largest municipality: Morehead)
• Wolfe (largest municipality: Campton)

By congressional district

McConnell won five of six congressional districts.^[123]

District	McConnell	McGrath	Representative
1st	67%	28%	James Comer
2nd	62%	33%	Brett Guthrie
3rd	37%	61%	John Yarmuth
4th	60%	36%	Thomas Massie
5th	74%	22%	Hal Rogers
6th	51%	46%	Andy Barr

See also

• 2020 Kentucky elections

Notes

Partisan clients

1. Poll released after the primary in July
2. Poll sponsored by McGrath's campaign
3. Poll sponsored by Booker's campaign
4. This poll's sponsor, Ditch Mitch Fund, supported the electoral defeat of Mitch McConnell prior to the sampling period
5. This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
6. Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits, a PAC supporting candidates who support term limits in Congress.
7. Poll sponsored by AARP.
8. Poll sponsored by The Ditch Mitch Fund
9. Poll sponsored by Our Lives on the Line

Voter samples

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Broihier and "someone else" with 4%; Tobin with 1%
3. Broihier with 5%; other with 1%
4. Not yet released
5. Undecided with 10%
6. Undecided with 5%
7. Undecided with 3%
8. Standard VI response
9. Undecided with 12%
10. If only McConnell and McGrath were candidates
11. Undecided with 11%
12. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
13. "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 5%
14. "Someone else" and Undecided with 6%
15. Undecided with 7%
16. "someone else" with 8%; undecided with 3%
17. Undecided with 10%; "Some other candidate" with 9%
18. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
19. Barron (L) with 4%; "someone else" with 2%; undecided with 3%
20. Undecided with 7%; "refused" with 1%
21. Undecided with 6%
22. Undecided with 8%
23. Undecided with 10%; "don't know/refused" with 3%