2020 United States Senate election in Alabama

The 2020 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Alabama, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent senator Doug Jones, first elected in a 2017 special election in what was widely labeled a major upset, ran for a full term, facing Tommy Tuberville in the general election. This race was one of two Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2020 in a state President Trump won in 2016.^[2]

2020 United States Senate election in Alabama

← 2017 (special) November 3, 2020 2026 →
Turnout	63.1% [1]
Nominee Tommy Tuberville Doug Jones Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 1,392,076 920,478 Percentage 60.10% 39.74%
County results Congressional district results Precinct results Tuberville:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80-90%      >90% Jones:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Tie:      50%      No data
U.S. senator before election Doug Jones Democratic Elected U.S. senator Tommy Tuberville Republican

Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2020 due to Alabama's heavy Republican lean, with analysts predicting a Republican pickup; Jones's 2017 win was in part due to sexual misconduct allegations against his Republican opponent Roy Moore.^[3]

As was predicted, Tuberville easily defeated Jones,^[4][5][6][7] whose 20.36% margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent U.S. Senator since Arkansas' Blanche Lincoln in 2010. Tuberville received the highest percentage of the vote for any challenger since Joseph D. Tydings in 1964. Jones became the first Democratic senator to lose a general election in Alabama, and the only Democratic senator to be defeated in 2020. He outperformed Biden in the state by about 5 points. This was the only Republican flip of the 2020 U.S. Senate elections.

Democratic primary

The candidate filing deadline was November 8, 2019. Jones ran unopposed.^[8][9]

Candidates

Nominee

• Doug Jones, incumbent U.S. senator^[10]

Declined

• John Rogers, state representative^[11]
• Randall Woodfin, mayor of Birmingham^[12] (endorsed Jones)

Endorsements

Doug Jones

U.S. senators

• Kamala Harris, U.S. senator (CA) (2017–2021), candidate for President of the United States in 2020, Democratic nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2020^[13]
• Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator (MN) and candidate for President of the United States in 2020^[14]
• Joe Manchin, U.S. senator (WV)^[15]

U.S. representatives

• Terri Sewell (AL-7)^[16]

Local officials

• Stacey Abrams, Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2018, former Minority Leader of the Georgia House of Representatives^[17]
• Randall Woodfin, Mayor of Birmingham^[12]

Individuals

• Michael O'Neill, actor^[16]

Organizations

• End Citizens United^[18]
• Human Rights Campaign^[19]
• League of Conservation Voters^[20]
• National Organization for Women^[21]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Tommy Tuberville, former Auburn Tigers football head coach^[22]

Eliminated in runoff

• Jeff Sessions, former United States attorney general, former holder of this seat, and former attorney general of Alabama^[23]

Eliminated in primary

• Stanley Adair, businessman^[24]
• Bradley Byrne, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 1st congressional district^[25]
• Arnold Mooney, state representative
• Roy Moore, former chief justice of the Alabama Supreme Court, former candidate for Governor of Alabama in 2006 and 2010 and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2017^[26]
• Ruth Page Nelson, community activist^[27]

Withdrew

• Marty Preston Hatley^[28][29]
• John Merrill, Secretary of State of Alabama^[30]
• John Paul Serbin^[31][29]

Declined

• Robert Aderholt, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 4th congressional district^[32]
• Will Ainsworth, Alabama lieutenant governor^[33]
• Mo Brooks, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 5th congressional district and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2017^[34]
• Will Dismukes, state representative^[35]
• Matt Gaetz, incumbent U.S. representative for Florida's 1st congressional district^[36]
• Del Marsh, president pro tempore of the Alabama Senate^[37]
• Arthur Orr, state senator^[12] (endorsed Byrne)
• Martha Roby, incumbent U.S. representative for Alabama's 2nd congressional district^[38]
• Heather Whitestone, former Miss America^[39][40]

Endorsements

Bradley Byrne (eliminated)

Federal officials

• Liz Cheney, U.S. representative (WY-AL) ^[41]

State officials

• Tom Butler, state senator and former state representative (1982–1994)^[42]
• Arthur Orr, state senator^[43]

Arnold Mooney (eliminated)

Federal officials

• Mo Brooks, U.S. representative (AL-05) and Republican candidate in the 2017 United States Senate special election in Alabama^[44]
• Mike Lee, U.S. senator (UT)^[45]
• Mark Levin, former Chief of Staff to U.S. Attorney General Edwin Meese and U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Education^[44]
• Rand Paul, U.S. senator (KY)^[46]

Organizations

• Senate Conservatives Fund^[44]

Individuals

• Erick Erickson, blogger^[44]

Jeff Sessions (eliminated)

Federal officials

• John Ashcroft, former U.S. Attorney General (2001-2005)^[47]
• John Barrasso, U.S. senator (WY)^[48][49]
• Roy Blunt, U.S. senator (MO) and former U.S. representative (MO-07) (1997–2011)^[48][49]
• John Boozman, U.S. senator (AR) and former U.S. Representative (AR-03) (2001–2011)^[48][49]
• Mike Crapo, U.S. senator (ID) and former U.S. representative (ID-02) (1993–1999)^[48][49]
• Mike Enzi, U.S. senator (WY)^[48][49]
• Deb Fischer, U.S. senator (NE)^[48][49]
• Jim Inhofe, U.S. senator (OK) and former U.S. representative (R-OK-01) (1987–1994)^[48][49]
• Johnny Isakson, former U.S. senator (GA) (2005–2019) and U.S. Representative (R-GA-06) (1999–2005)^[48][49]
• Ron Johnson, U.S. senator (WI)^[48][49]
• Pat Roberts, U.S. senator (KS) and former U.S. Representative (KS-01) (1981–1997)^[48][49]
• Richard Shelby, U.S. senator (AL) and former U.S. Representative (AL-07) (1979–1987)^[50][48][49]

Organizations

• New York Young Republican Club^[51]
• NRA Political Victory Fund^[52][53]

Individuals

• Tucker Carlson, journalist and political commentator^[54]

Tommy Tuberville

Federal officials

• Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)^[55]

State officials

• Will Ainsworth, lieutenant governor^[56]
• Tom Whatley, state senator^[57]

Organizations

• Club for Growth^[58]
• National Association for Gun Rights^[59]

Individuals

• Randy Owen, country music artist, lead singer of Alabama^[60]
• Bruce Pearl, head coach of the Auburn Tigers men's basketball team^[61]
• Sean Spicer, former White House Press Secretary (2017)^[62]

First round

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Stanley Adair	Mo Brooks	Bradley Byrne	Del Marsh	John Merrill	Arnold Mooney	Roy Moore	Ruth Page Nelson	Gary Palmer	Jeff Sessions	Tommy Tuberville	Other	Undecided
WPA Intelligence[63][A]	February 18–19, 2020	607 (LV)	± 4%	<1%	–	17%	–	–	<1%	5%	–	–	29%	32%	<1%	15%
WPA Intelligence[64][A]	February 10–12, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4%	<1%	–	17%	–	–	1%	6%	<1%	–	34%	29%	–	15%
Harper Polling[65][B]	February 8–9, 2020	609 (LV)	± 3.97%	–	–	26%	–	–	–	5%	–	–	31%	24%	–	14%
Mason-Dixon[66]	February 4–6, 2020	400 (LV)	± 5.0%	–	–	17%	–	–	–	5%	–	–	31%	29%	2%	16%
OnMessage[67][C]	January 13–15, 2020	700 (LV)	± 2.5%	–	–	22%	–	–	–	–	–	–	43%	21%	–	–
OnMessage[68][C]	December 3–5, 2019	700 (LV)	± 3.7%	–	–	14%	–	–	1%	7%	1%	–	44%	21%	–	12%
Cherry Communications[69][D]	December 1–3, 2019	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	1%	–	12%	–	–	1%	8%	–	–	35%	31%	–	–
WPA Intelligence[70][A]	October 29–31, 2019	511 (V)	± 4.4%	–	–	11%	–	6%	2%	11%	–	–	36%	23%	–	–
Cygnal[71]	October 10–12, 2019	536 (LV)	–	1%	–	18%	–	9%	2%	11%	–	–	–	32%	–	28%
Tommy for Senate[72][E]	Released on October 5, 2019	– (LV)[b]	–	1%	–	13%	–	9%	1%	15%	–	–	–	36%	–	26%
Moore Information[73][F]	August 11–13, 2019	400 (LV)	± 5.0%	–	–	17%	–	13%	1%	15%	–	–	–	33%	3%	17%
Cygnal[74]	June 22–23, 2019	612 (LV)	4.0%	–	–	21%	–	12%	2%	13%	–	–	–	29%	–	22%
				–	–	13%	–	8%	–	9%	–	–	29%	21%	–	–
Moore Information[75][F]	June 10–11, 2019	650 (LV)	± 4.0%	–	–	16%	–	7%	2%	18%	–	–	–	23%	6%	28%
Mason-Dixon[76]	April 9–11, 2019	400 (RV)	± 5.0%	–	18%	13%	4%	–	–	27%	–	11%	–	–	2%[c]	25%
Victory Phones[77][G]	Released in February 2019	400 (LV)	± 5.0%	–	30%	17%	7%	–	–	–	–	12%	–	–	6%	27%

Primary results

Initial primary round results by county

  Tuberville

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%

  Sessions

•   30–40%
•   40–50%

  Byrne

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

Republican primary results^[78]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tommy Tuberville	239,616	33.39%
	Republican	Jeff Sessions	227,088	31.64%
	Republican	Bradley Byrne	178,627	24.89%
	Republican	Roy Moore	51,377	7.16%
	Republican	Ruth Page Nelson	7,200	1.00%
	Republican	Arnold Mooney	7,149	1.00%
	Republican	Stanley Adair	6,608	0.92%
Total votes			717,665	100.00%

Runoff

The runoff for the Republican Senate nomination was planned for March 31, 2020,^[79] but it was delayed until July 14 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.^[80]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Jeff Sessions	Tommy Tuberville	Other / Undecided
Auburn University at Montgomery[81]	July 2–9, 2020	558 (RV)	± 6%	31%	47%	22%[d]
OnMessage (R)[82][C]	May 26–27, 2020	600 (LV)	± 3.46%	43%	49%	8%[e]
FM3 Research (D)[83][H]	May 14–18, 2020	– (LV)[b]	–	32%	54%	14%[f]
Cygnal[84]	May 7–10, 2020	607 (LV)	± 3.98%	32%	55%	13%
FM3 Research (D)[83][H]	March, 2020	– (LV)[b]	–	36%	54%	10%[g]
OnMessage (R)[85][C]	March 8–9, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.46%	45%	45%	10%
Cygnal[86]	March 6–8, 2020	645 (LV)	+ 3.86%	40%	52%	8%
Moore Information Group[87][F]	March 5–7, 2020	400 (LV)	± 5%	38%	49%	13%
WT&S Consulting[88]	March 5, 2020	1,234 (LV)	+ 3.29%	42%	49%	8%[e]
Mason-Dixon[66]	February 4–6, 2020	400 (LV)	± 5.0%	49%	42%	9%

Hypothetical polling

with Bradley Byrne and Gary Palmer Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[a] Margin of error Bradley Byrne Gary Palmer Undecided WPA Intelligence (R)[89][I] February 10–12, 2019 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 27% 27% 46% with Bradley Byrne and Jeff Sessions Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[a] Margin of error Bradley Byrne Jeff Sessions Undecided AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon[90] February 4–6, 2020 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 35% 48% 17% with Mo Brooks and Bradley Byrne Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[a] Margin of error Mo Brooks Bradley Byrne Undecided WPA Intelligence (R)[91][I] March 10–12, 2019 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 32% 25% with Mo Brooks and Roy Moore Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[a] Margin of error Mo Brooks Roy Moore Undecided WPA Intelligence (R)[92][I][J] March 10–12, 2019 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 52% 32% 16%

Results

Runoff results by county

  Tuberville

•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

  Sessions

•   50–60%

Republican primary runoff results^[78]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tommy Tuberville	334,675	60.73%
	Republican	Jeff Sessions	216,452	39.27%
Total votes			551,127	100.00%

Independents

Candidates

Withdrawn

• Mike Parrish^[93][94][95]
• Jarmal Sanders, reverend^[93][94][95]
• Marcus Jejaun Williams^[93][96]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report[97]	Lean R (flip)	October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[98]	Lean R (flip)	October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[99]	Likely R (flip)	November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[100]	Likely R (flip)	October 30, 2020
Politico[101]	Lean R (flip)	November 2, 2020
RCP[102]	Likely R (flip)	October 23, 2020
DDHQ[103]	Safe R (flip)	November 3, 2020
538[104]	Likely R (flip)	November 2, 2020
Economist[105]	Safe R (flip)	November 2, 2020

Post-primary endorsements

Doug Jones (D)

Individuals

• Charles C. Krulak, retired Marine Corps general and former Joint Chiefs of Staff member^[106] (Republican)

Organizations

• Feminist Majority PAC^[107]
• Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs^[108]
• National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare^[109]
• Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund^[110]

Unions

• Alabama AFL-CIO^[111]
• International Federation of Professional and Technical Engineers^[112]
• United Auto Workers^[113]

Tommy Tuberville (R)

Senators

• Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas^[114]

Organizations

• NRA Political Victory Fund^[115]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Doug Jones (D)	Tommy Tuberville (R)	Other	Undecided
Swayable[116]	October 27 – November 1, 2020	294 (LV)	± 8.5%	42%	58%	–	–
Data for Progress[117]	October 27 – November 1, 2020	1,045 (LV)	± 3%	44%	56%	0%[h]	–
Morning Consult[118]	October 22–31, 2020	850 (LV)	± 3%	39%	51%	–	–
Auburn University At Montgomery[119]	October 23–28, 2020	853 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	54%	3%	–
Swayable[120]	October 23–26, 2020	232 (LV)	± 8.7%	46%	54%	–	–
Cygnal[121]	October 21–23, 2020	645 (LV)	± 3.9%	41%	55%	–	4%
Moore Information (R)[122][F]	October 11–14, 2020	504 (LV)	± 4.5%	40%	55%	–	–
FM3 Research (D)[123][H]	October 11–14, 2020	801 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	47%	–	5%[i]
Auburn University at Montgomery[124]	September 30 – October 3, 2020	1,072 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	54%	4%	–
Morning Consult[125]	September 11–20, 2020	658 (LV)	± (2% – 7%)	34%	52%	–	–
Morning Consult[126]	July 24 – August 2, 2020	609 (LV)	± 4.0%	35%	52%	4%[j]	9%
Auburn University at Montgomery[127]	July 2–9, 2020	567 (RV)	± 5.1%	36%	44%	7%[k]	14%
WPA Intelligence (R)[128][K]	June 29 – July 2, 2020	509 (LV)[l]	± 3.8%	40%	50%	–	–
ALG Research (D)[129]	June 18–22, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	47%	1%	8%
Cygnal (R)[130]	June 13–16, 2020	530 (LV)	± 4.3%	36%	50%	2%[m]	13%
FM3 Research (D)[83][H]	May 14–18, 2020	601 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	47%	–	9%
Mason-Dixon[66]	February 4–6, 2020	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	50%	–	8%
JMC Analytics[131]	December 16–18, 2019	525 (LV)	± 4.3%	40%	47%	–	13%

Hypothetical polling

With Jeff Sessions

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Doug Jones (D)	Jeff Sessions (R)	Other	Undecided
Auburn University at Montgomery[132]	July 2–9, 2020	567 (RV)	± 5.1%	43%	49%	7%[n]	1%
ALG Research (D)[129]	June 18–22, 2020	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	45%	3%	9%
Cygnal (R)[130]	June 13–16, 2020	530 (LV)	± 4.3%	35%	45%	3%[o]	18%
Mason-Dixon[66]	February 4–6, 2020	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	41%	54%	–	5%
JMC Analytics[131]	December 16–18, 2019	525 (LV)	± 4.3%	41%	46%	–	13%

With Bradley Byrne

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Doug Jones (D)	Bradley Byrne (R)	Undecided
AL Daily News/Mason-Dixon[90]	February 4–6, 2020	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	51%	7%
JMC Analytics[131]	December 16–18, 2019	525 (LV)	± 4.3%	40%	44%	16%

With Arnold Mooney

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Doug Jones (D)	Arnold Mooney (R)	Undecided
JMC Analytics[131]	December 16–18, 2019	525 (LV)	± 4.3%	40%	34%	25%

With Roy Moore

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Doug Jones (D)	Roy Moore (R)	Undecided
JMC Analytics[131]	December 16–18, 2019	525 (LV)	± 4.3%	47%	33%	20%

With Generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Doug Jones (D)	Generic Republican	Undecided
Mason-Dixon[76]	Apr 9–11, 2019	625 (RV)	± 4.0%	40%	50%	10%

With Generic Opponent

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Doug Jones (D)	Generic Opponent	Undecided
JMC Analytics[131]	December 16–18, 2019	525 (LV)	± 4.3%	34%	48%[L]	18%

with Generic Democrat and Generic Republican

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[a]	Margin of error	Generic Democrat	Generic Republican	Undecided
Cygnal[121]	October 21–23, 2020	645 (LV)	± 3.9%	38%	55%	6%

Results

Margin swing by county

Legend

•   Republican — +5−7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5−10%
•   Republican — +10−12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5−15%
•   Republican — >15%

By county

United States Senate election in Alabama, 2020^[133]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Tommy Tuberville	1,392,076	60.10%	+11.76%
	Democratic	Doug Jones (incumbent)	920,478	39.74%	−10.23%
	Write-in		3,891	0.17%	−1.06%
Total votes			2,316,445	100.00%	N/A
	Republican gain from Democratic

By county

County[134] Tommy Tuberville Republican Doug Jones Democratic Write-ins Various parties Margin Total votes Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes Autauga 19,387 69.97% 8,277 29.87% 43 0.16% 11,110 40.10% 27,707 Baldwin 80,200 73.34% 28,925 26.45% 225 0.21% 51,275 46.89% 109,350 Barbour 5,449 52.00% 5,021 47.91% 9 0.09% 428 4.09% 10,479 Bibb 7,320 76.40% 2,244 23.42% 17 0.18% 5,076 52.98% 9,581 Blount 24,163 87.85% 3,290 11.96% 53 0.19% 20,873 75.89% 27,506 Bullock 1,108 24.09% 3,490 75.87% 2 0.04% -2,382 -51.78% 4,600 Butler 5,232 55.45% 4,193 44.44% 11 0.12% 1,039 11.01% 9,436 Calhoun 33,936 66.78% 16,808 33.07% 77 0.15% 17,128 33.71% 50,821 Chambers 8,312 54.56% 6,908 45.35% 14 0.09% 1,404 9.21% 15,234 Cherokee 10,122 82.62% 2,112 17.24% 17 0.14% 8,010 65.38% 12,251 Chilton 15,708 81.69% 3,499 18.20% 22 0.11% 12,209 63.49% 19,229 Choctaw 4,188 56.47% 3,225 43.49% 3 0.04% 963 12.98% 7,416 Clarke 7,061 53.95% 6,017 45.98% 9 0.07% 1,044 7.97% 13,087 Clay 5,454 79.01% 1,441 20.87% 8 0.12% 4,013 58.14% 6,903 Cleburne 6,321 88.17% 843 11.76% 5 0.07% 5,478 76.41% 7,169 Coffee 16,400 73.95% 5,753 25.94% 25 0.11% 10,647 48.01% 22,178 Colbert 18,320 65.94% 9,408 33.86% 53 0.19% 8,912 32.08% 27,781 Conecuh 3,294 51.50% 3,098 43.44% 4 0.06% 196 8.06% 6,396 Coosa 3,559 65.10% 1,899 34.74% 9 0.16% 1,660 30.36% 5,467 Covington 14,120 81.37% 3,214 18.52% 19 0.11% 10,906 62.85% 17,353 Crenshaw 4,671 70.89% 1,910 28.99% 8 0.12% 2,761 41.90% 6,589 Cullman 35,949 86.14% 5,693 13.64% 93 0.22% 30,256 72.50% 41,735 Dale 13,653 69.51% 5,955 30.32% 33 0.17% 7,698 39.19% 19,641 Dallas 5,298 29.74% 12,503 70.18% 15 0.08% -7,205 -40.44% 17,816 DeKalb 23,940 81.86% 5,253 17.96% 53 0.18% 18,687 63.90% 29,246 Elmore 29,459 72.00% 11,399 27.86% 60 0.15% 18,060 44.14% 40,918 Escambia 10,417 65.80% 5,400 34.11% 14 0.09% 5,017 31.69% 15,831 Etowah 34,351 72.18% 13,145 27.62% 93 0.20% 21,206 44.56% 47,589 Fayette 7,088 81.00% 1,651 18.87% 12 0.14% 5,437 62.13% 8,751 Franklin 9,856 78.97% 2,605 20.87% 20 0.16% 7,251 58.10% 12,481 Geneva 10,382 82.91% 2,122 16.95% 18 0.14% 8,260 65.96% 12,522 Greene 816 17.07% 3,962 82.90% 1 0.02% -3,146 -65.83% 4,779 Hale 3,090 39.21% 4,786 60.74% 4 0.05% -1,696 -21.53% 7,880 Henry 6,399 68.95% 2,872 30.95% 9 0.10% 3,527 38.00% 9,280 Houston 31,462 68.35% 14,494 31.49% 77 0.17% 16,968 36.86% 46,033 Jackson 18,888 80.36% 4,587 19.52% 29 0.12% 14,301 60.84% 23,504 Jefferson 134,314 41.26% 190,644 58.57% 552 0.17% -56,330 -17.31% 325,510 Lamar 6,088 85.00% 1,071 14.95% 3 0.04% 5,017 70.05% 7,162 Lauderdale 30,071 68.29% 13,874 31.51% 88 0.20% 16,197 36.78% 44,033 Lawrence 11,710 73.40% 4,211 26.39% 33 0.21% 7,499 47.01% 15,954 Lee 41,154 57.76% 29,986 42.08% 114 0.16% 11,168 15.68% 71,254 Limestone 33,364 68.04% 15,584 31.78% 90 0.18% 17,780 36.26% 49,038 Lowndes 1,766 25.90% 5,051 74.07% 2 0.03% -3,285 -48.17% 6,819 Macon 1,481 16.99% 7,224 82.87% 12 0.14% -5,743 -65.88% 8,717 Madison 99,181 51.10% 94,458 48.67% 443 0.23% 4,723 2.43% 194,082 Marengo 5,166 47.56% 5,687 52.36% 9 0.08% -521 -4.80% 10,862 Marion 11,897 86.46% 1,847 13.42% 16 0.12% 10,050 73.04% 13,760 Marshall 32,086 81.22% 7,336 18.57% 83 0.21% 24,750 62.65% 39,505 Mobile 96,320 52.73% 86,034 47.10% 315 0.17% 10,286 5.63% 182,669 Monroe 5,906 55.50% 4,719 44.35% 16 0.15% 1,187 11.15% 10,641 Montgomery 32,221 32.57% 66,592 67.31% 125 0.13% -34,371 -34.74% 98,938 Morgan 38,280 71.55% 15,108 28.24% 111 0.21% 23,172 43.31% 53,499 Perry 1,274 24.42% 3,943 75.58% 0 0.00% -2,669 -51.16% 5,217 Pickens 5,439 56.40% 4,193 43.48% 11 0.11% 1,246 12.92% 9,643 Pike 7,777 56.31% 6,020 43.59% 14 0.10% 1,757 12.72% 13,811 Randolph 8,400 77.98% 2,362 21.93% 10 0.09% 6,038 56.05% 10,772 Russell 9,383 44.14% 11,853 55.77% 19 0.09% -2,470 -11.63% 21,255 Shelby 77,836 67.87% 36,606 31.92% 236 0.21% 41,230 35.95% 114,678 St. Clair 35,426 79.89% 8,844 19.94% 76 0.17% 26,582 59.95% 44,346 Sumter 1,550 24.77% 4,705 75.18% 3 0.05% -3,155 -50.41% 6,258 Talladega 21,726 60.99% 13,855 38.89% 44 0.12% 7,871 22.10% 35,625 Tallapoosa 14,668 70.04% 6,255 29.87% 20 0.10% 8,413 40.17% 20,943 Tuscaloosa 49,347 54.87% 40,404 44.92% 190 0.21% 8,943 9.95% 89,941 Walker 25,016 80.54% 5,978 19.25% 65 0.21% 19,038 61.29% 31,059 Washington 6,162 69.98% 2,635 29.92% 9 0.10% 3,527 40.06% 8,806 Wilcox 1,779 30.26% 4,095 69.65% 5 0.09% -2,316 -39.39% 5,879 Winston 9,915 88.29% 1,302 11.59% 13 0.12% 8,613 76.70% 11,230 Total 1,392,076 60.10% 920,478 39.74% 3,891 0.17% 471,598 20.36% 2,316,445 Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican Barbour (largest city: Eufaula) Butler (largest city: Greenville) Chambers (largest city: Valley) Choctaw (largest town: Butler) Clarke (largest city: Jackson) Conecuh (largest city: Evergreen) Lee (largest city: Auburn) Madison (largest city: Huntsville) Mobile (largest city: Mobile) Pickens (largest city: Aliceville) Talladega (largest city: Talladega) Tuscaloosa (largest city: Tuscaloosa)

By congressional district

Tuberville won six of seven congressional districts.^[135]

District	Jones	Tuberville	Elected representative
1st	39%	61%	Jerry Carl
2nd	38%	62%	Barry Moore
3rd	36%	64%	Mike Rogers
4th	21%	79%	Robert Aderholt
5th	39%	60%	Mo Brooks
6th	35%	65%	Gary Palmer
7th	73%	27%	Terri Sewell

Analysis

The result was a landslide victory for Tuberville. Tuberville's 20-point margin of victory is largely attributed to the presence of Donald Trump on the ballot, and Jones' votes against Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, as well as his vote to convict Donald Trump in his first impeachment trial. Jones was widely considered the most vulnerable senator in 2020, and his victory in 2017 was largely attributed to allegations of child molestation against his opponent. While Jones was able to receive more raw votes than he did in 2017, Tuberville received nearly double the number of votes Roy Moore did in 2017, largely due to the high Republican turnout. Jones did perform well in Jefferson County and Montgomery County, but still vastly underperformed his margins in 2017, while Tuberville easily won the rural areas, and successfully flipped many counties that went to Jones by significant margins.

In the 2017 election, Jones won several traditionally Republican counties while also driving up margins and turnout in traditionally Democratic counties: he added onto massive margins in Birmingham and Montgomery with narrow wins in the state's other, previously more conservative metropolitan areas, such as Huntsville, Mobile, Tuscaloosa and Auburn-Opelika, alongside several other small counties encircling the Black Belt.^[136] Jones' win, though attributable to a spike in Democratic turnout and a decline in Republican turnout, was primarily reliant on sexual misconduct allegations against Moore, resulting in several prominent Republicans rescinding their endorsements.^{[137][138][139]} With Tuberville lacking such controversies, the state swung hard into the Republican column in 2020,^[140] and he flipped 12 counties Jones won in 2017. Jones only won the 13 counties won by Joe Biden in the concurrent 2020 presidential election, and his victories in Jefferson County (Birmingham) and Montgomery County (Montgomery) were insufficient to overcome Tuberville's performance in the rest of the state.

Notes

Partisan clients and other notes

1. The Club for Growth is a PAC supporting the Donald Trump 2020 presidential campaign and has also endorsed Tuberville
2. Poll sponsored by the Bradley Byrne campaign
3. Poll sponsored by the Jeff Sessions campaign
4. Poll sponsored by FarmPAC
5. Internal poll from Tuberville's campaign
6. Poll sponsored by the Tommy Tuberville campaign.
7. Poll produced, according to Mo Brooks, by a group attempting to persuade him to enter this race
8. Poll sponsored by Jones' campaign.
9. Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
10. Standard VI response
11. Poll sponsored by the Club for Growth, which supports exclusively Republican candidates.
12. "Jones does not deserve to be re-elected" with 48% as opposed to "Jones deserves to be re-elected"

Voter samples

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Not yet released
3. Tim James with 2%
4. Undecided with 22%
5. Undecided with 8%
6. Undecided with 14%
7. Undecided with 10%
8. "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
9. Includes "Refused"
10. "Someone else" with 4%
11. "Write-in candidate" with 7%
12. Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
13. Parrish (I) with 2%
14. "Write-in candidate" with 7%
15. Parrish (I) with 3%